AUD/JPY - To repeat the breakdown of 2007/2008? Time will tell!Summary:
All signs are pointing to a significant breakdown in the AUD/JPY...
Commodity currencies are under extreme pressure due to a global slowdown and suppressed commodity prices.
In an extremely volatile and high risk market, investors will fly back into the Yen as a safe haven and dump commodity currencies.
We also have upcoming rate cuts coming out of the RBA, as well as a housing bubble that is soon to pop.
The crash in the Shanghai Index as well as slow growth out of China will put further pressure on the Australian Dollar.
Technicals:
We have broken a significant 7 year trend-line on the Quarterly + Monthly Charts indicating upcoming bearish pressure
We are also resting within the 200/250 EMA's on the weekly chart. If we break below these EMA's, I believe the AUD/JPY will start to turn. Be on the lookout for a possible EMA Death Cross in the near future
Looking at the daily, we are starting to put in lower highs and lower lows which may drive the AUD/JPY lower.
This is something I will be keeping an eye on....
Selloff
Return to the breakdown zoneIt's hard to define exact levels of resistance around this area, but we seem to have a descending wedge into strong support here in the $210s, which should result in snap back up for a correction. After that is anyone's guess, but I'm still leaning toward a long term bear market.
Given the oversold condition, I would say a snap back to the $240s is likely. There was a good breakdown trade opportunity at $235, but I missed it. That said, I think there will be more shorting opportunities in the future. Volume is nothing spectacular at this moment, so we should see a break in the selling soon.
AUDNZD DAILY SHORTIM ALREADY SHORT IN THIS PAIR BUT IF PRICE RETRACES AND TAKES ME OUT OF THE TRADE THEN THE NEXT LEVEL I'D LOOK TO SELL IS AT MY CLUSTER ZONE/SELL ZONE. IVE GOT LOADS OF CONFLUENCES AT THIS LEVEL WHICH ARE THE 0.5 AND 61.8 FIB, SUPPORT TURNED RESISTANCE STRUCTURE LEVEL, MAJOR TRENDLINE, DYNAMIC RESISTANCE (50 MA) AND A NICE PSYCHOLOGICAL ROUND NUMBER (1.03000). Another confluence is this trade setup is in line with the fundamentals because the RBA (reserve bank of Australia) said there is a possibly there could be another rate cut in the period ahead.
AUDUSD 4 HOUR CHART SHORTI'M ALREADY IN A SHORT POSITION BUT IF PRICE RETRACES UP TO MY SELL ZONE I WILL LOOK AT PRICE ACTION TO ADD IN ANOTHER POSITION AND TARGET 0.75000. I STRONGLY BELIEVE WE CAN GET TO THERE IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE THE LABOUR MARKET IN THE U.S KEEPS COMING OUT GOOD WHICH WILL HAVE INVESTORS/TRADERS SPECULATING A RATE HIKE AS EARLY AS JULY. ON TOP OF THAT AUD CURRENCY IS STILL OVERVALUED AND THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT SAID HE.LL LIKE TO SEE AUD REACH 0.75000 WHICH IS ADDED CONFLUENCE THAT ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME UNTIL WE GET THERE. AUD IS DOVISH WHILE THE FED IS HAWKISH SO WE'VE GOT A GREAT DIVERGENCE ON THIS PAIR.