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SEMI

Micron Brief ($MU) For a brief overview and risk see: drive.google.com Micron has been a solid value play for the majority of the 2017 tech run and I think it's worth looking at the current standing and valuation as of current, should you choose to stay long tech into 2019. Micron had a $2.5 EPS just 90 days ago with a PE of just over 8. MU reported FQ4 guidance Rev/EPS @ 8.2bn / $3.30 substantially higher than expected nearing 8bn / $3.1. As expected, MU outperformed AMD with DRAM up 6%, "Hyperscale" applications up ~30% q/q and seems to be able to meed the N AND expectations of 45% y/y. After looking at the current standing, I do feel like the is still room for MU to grow, at least into FQ2/FY19. Trading at 4.78x PE and 5.0x EV/FCF, the valuation isn't as overheated as the rest of the major tech plays - and is actually very appealing. Q3 is to turn MU net cash positive and there is to be a ~1bn buyback in September. I also feel like CapEx and operational, investments are being implemented fruitfully with 'incremental cleanroom space' in Hiroshima, Japan, which will be available for production at the beginning of calendar year 2019 For FY2018, with expected capital expenditures to be in the upper end of previously guided range of $7.5 billion, plus or minus 5 percent. -DRAM outlook is still looking good with 19% in DRAM shipments. -64L Bit crossover completed one Q ahead of schedule. i.magaimg.net However, its important to consider the cyclical nature of semiconductors: The DRAM and NAND Flash business is cyclical in nature with each cycle comprising of four phases: - Increased demand, high profitability: Market is in under-supply with strong pricing and hence, high profitability. Profits are spent on capacity addition, with increase in supply after a period of 8-12 months. - Oversupply and losses: Market is marked by oversupply and falling ASPs. Focus is on driving cost efficiencies. - Continued oversupply, losses run deeper: Demand is pushed a little higher due to price elasticity. ASPs continue to fall and approach cash cost levels. CapEx is delayed and fabrication units are run at lower capacity. - Supply correction, return to profitability: Reduced supply leads to correction and demand sufficiency. ASPs see correction or possible rebound while costs continue to decline. CapEx spending starts again. The market was in the continued oversupply and losses phase till 2012, but entered the correction and profitability phase in 2013. The market is now in the supply correction phase, and the demand is both DRAM and NAND Flash is expected to outpace supply in the near future Quoted SOTP valuation metrics put MU at $64 - 70 and street expectations near $80 with higher interval ranges nearing $90. I am staying long the stock but expectations remain low due to the possibility of the Chinese "market access liberalisation" policy, tariffs on Semi's and concerns regarding the flash/chips pricing structure and whether the major players have been inflating prices. Tim Arcuri's comments are worth considering with a discount, however the probability of a large scale correction in memory is rather low, especially in the short run. "chip memory is replacing disk in both clients and servers, and it has become cost-efficient for cloud." I do think the street is correct on this one, however I would be pleasantly surprised if MU reached Stiful's Analyst's Targets at @ $106. I may post a model later.
NASDAQ:MU
by UnknownUnicorn2421992
3
In this longterm strategy...BTCUSD turns off uptrend (i hope only for a while). We see that last upwave looks like corrective one (triangle or other pattern is forming - in case of candles with shadows or priceline or candles close/open points), but after succesful attack on 10000USD may be viewed as impulsive wave 1, so nothing is lost. If You play only longs on this pair, You should not take longs - it's to risky for now. This "laguerre" based system looks good in longterm (even if You take only longs, and not take shorts) in case of 4h charts too. In case of strategies like this, Tou should do Your own research. Historical data cand produce fantastic view, but after that there is some risk that earnings will be not so good or even there will be losses (strategy has huge drawdown when You use option of playing 100% of capital, situation changes if You will use smaller percentage of capital - but gains are in this case much smaller of course). This is not the trading advise!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by orminlange
Low price stock candidate - Chosen by our whole brain processOn a daily chart: It is above 5 MA and 20 MA, it is above the William´s % R, above the CCI , the daily candlestick is positive, it has an increasing volume , it is a growth industry (semiconductors), it is above the cloud, above the 50 and 20 MA, it is above the 8 EMA , the RSI that I set to 2 is above the 80 level, the MACD crossed and the PVT is positive. News: us.rd.yahoo.com The bollinger bands have narrowed and beginning to widen. On a weekly: It is above the cloud. These type of ideas are mentioned in our book Pennies to Thousands, a whole brain process of picking stocks with left brain indicators and right brain intuition. This book can be picked up for the same cost as a commission on a stock and can be purchased on Amazon or other bookstores. You can also watch our Youtube videos which have different videos on right and left brain activities to choose stock candidates. SUBSCRIBE TO OUR CHANNEL: Pennies to Thousands.
NLong
by penniestothousands
SPX Long/Short Momentum Algorithm Beats S&P500 By A Huge Margin!This simple algorithm uses Exponential Moving Averages of the S&P 500's Relative Strength Index to trigger buy/sell and short/cover signals on a daily chart. I've backtested the algorithm for SPY (1994-present), SPX (1981-present), SPX500 (1971-present), and it beats the S&P 500 in every occasion. The algorithm cannot correctly time every single crash or correction but for the most part, it can avoid and even profit from most major market downturns. Backtest results show that it would have timed both the 2000 and 2008 crashes beautifully. By the way, a new sell/short signal was generated just a few days ago. The last time this happened was in 2008. Hmm... :) Algorithm Rules: Long Entry/Short Exit = EMA100(RSI50) cross> 50 Long Exit/Short Entry = EMA200(RSI50) cross< 50 Enjoy! ~Kory
AMEX:SPY
by Stable_Camel
2