Semiconductors & SOXL: A Bull ThesisWhy Semiconductors?
Virtually every single electronic device contains some form of a semiconductor unit within its components. The entire Bull theory on semiconductors as an industry could be reduced to this one sentence. The following, however, will introduce concepts contingent to the understanding of what is shaping the market for semiconductors. The weight of intra-industry, political, macroeconomic, and physical factors discerning an inconceivable upside potential for certain investments carrying maximum exposure to the sector, such as AMEX:SOXL . The last section contains my technical approach to trading SOXL.
We begin with the fundamental, and by fundamental, I refer to the simplest reasons for what is happening in the market up until now; [ Early morning Monday, 7/28 ].
Macroeconomic Context
Like essentially the rest of the market, SOXL hit its 1 year low of 7.23 USD on Monday, 4/7, following the announcement (and soon postponement) of global tariffs at levels not observed since the early 30's. This of course sparked a panic spiral in the entire market, leading to outflows from the S&P 500 of approximately 70 billion USD during the month of April. During this time we also saw a new, but familiar narrative emerge. Asset Managers, Such as J.P. Morgan set historically low price targets on the S&P 500, going as low as 5,200 USD. They reinforced their PTs with publications warning investors across the world that the risk of recession in the United States was raised to 80%, and this message was relayed across all media in parabolic fashion. While it does not seem too outward to assume an increased risk of recession due to tariffs by looking back on what we learned of the consequences from the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. There exists a widely overlooked, fundamental , reason as to why I can claim that the REAL risk of recession at the time that J.P. Morgan assigned an 80% risk of recession, was in actuality, 0% (I assume J.P. Morgan knew this but pushed the narrative anyways in order to acquire massive equity at a discount). If anyone has taken introductory macroeconomics in their lifetime, they may be familiar with the function for calculating GDP via the expenditure approach: GDP = C + I + G - NX. Now, why am I referencing high school/college economics basics, the answer to that lies in how we determine our rate of economic growth in the context of tariffs. The part of this formula that we must focus on is NX or Net Exports, the negative factor to GDP. Tariffs, if implemented would effectively decrease import volume, resulting in a smaller Net Exports, and ultimately a higher GDP calculation. Now, what makes this scenario unique, the tariffs having been postponed shortly after their inception, allowed US retailers to engage in front running, or the accelerated purchasing of foreign goods in advance of tariffs. During the month of April, we saw a 5.4% increase in import volume in US west coast ports. This increase in imports effectively caused the inverse impact on GDP growth that import tariffs themselves would have caused: front-running lead to import uptick, leading to a greater Net Exports, which results in lower (negative) GDP growth. Essentially, tariffs in the short-term increases GDP growth (in the long term deadweight loss, and cost structure distortion comes in to play, but that doesn't matter yet), however , tariffs that are announced but not immediately implemented will result in a lower GDP growth, coupled with uncertainty surrounding the whole situation that translated into a cut in CapEx as companies scrambled to determine if tariffs would f*ck them over or not. This argument is further supported by the trends observed in the foreign exchange market. You may have heard in the news that we are experiencing a period of "Dollar Weakness", and while, yes, you can clearly see that the USD has fared rather poorly against other currencies in most major dollar pairs over the past few months. The agent behind this isn't just that the dollar happens to be weak, it is a combination of factors that generate noise and volatility in the forex market. The two main factors highlighted by the media are 1. The obvious political policy instability, pushing bond yields higher, plus a significant debt ceiling raise as per the BBB and 2. the expectations of interest rate cuts over the next year. The other, less recognized major factor to dollar weakness is exactly what we described above: Increased imports means more dollars flowing out of the economy. When these dollars land abroad, they are converted into the native currency, driving down the demand for the dollar. Notice how none of the reasons described above, actually have anything to do with what truly drives foreign exchange markets. Over time, the strength/weakness of a currency is directly correlated to the strength/weakness of the underlying economy. To say that we can expect dollar weakness due to the aforementioned reasons outright ignores the economic growth potential that exists in our economy at this current time, subsiding the out-of-proportion tariff fears as a proponent to an economic crisis. In an all-encompassing view, what I would describe to be occurring on the macro level is a sort of "slingshot" effect: Trade imbalances and private sector response to policy unclarity results in a pullback in economic growth, one that we are now experiencing as a short-term effect. From a medium-long term perspective, assuming that tariffs aren't persistent in the long term, we would see full fledge economic boom, driven by non other than the growth of our technology sector, which at it's core, lies the almighty semiconductor.
Growth of AI as a driver of Semiconductor demand: Stable trajectory or Bubble Territory?
Having laid the economic framework for picking the general direction our market is heading in, we can now begin to talk about the internal combustion occurring within the world of technology, and the two letter term associated with just about every cool thing in the business world, that is of course AI. Now just to clarify, AI is not new, its been around for at least 20 years and has a well established role in the world prior to the existence of ChatGPT. What changed so drastically in recent years is the breakthrough into a new form of artificial intelligence, known as "Artificial General Intelligence" or AGI. Long story short: AGI's primary difference in the business context is the colossal amount of electrical infrastructure and computing power that is demanded by the development of these mega language models. As a result of the high barrier for entry to this new industry, only 5 AGI companies have arisen to the global stage: OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Microsoft, and DeepSeek. Increasing competition in this space through more players entering the market is unlikely at this time as the cost to create a standalone AGI model is so astronomical. This is a particularly good thing because it tells us that AGI as an industry can result in natural monopolies. The ultra-intensive RnD costs and Data Center infrastructure demands make it more sensical to have a greater number of resources dedicated to producing 1 AGI model, instead of dividing resources to develop multiple less optimized models (similar to how a water company holds a natural monopoly as competition in that industry would result in no foreseeable benefit to it's customers). A further effect from this dynamic lies in how businesses in this industry scale to expand, and its pretty straightforward: the more megawatt computing power a model can access, the more parameters a model can account for, and the more vast the dataset that model can train on, with enhancing speed and efficiency (GPT 4o takes into account >500B parameters in a given query). We see the concept of natural monopoly playing out as the concentration of market capitalization is becoming more extreme where firms like Google, Microsoft, and NVIDIA are absorbing larger share of the market, while trading at ever increasing Price/Earnings multiples. To many, this reflects a trend we saw during the dot com bubble, however what makes the AGI industry different is the nature of the good or service provided. During the dot com boom, companies saw speculative value based on only the fact that their business existed on the .com domain. We know that each of these businesses are unique, providing a good or service across whatever industry they were part of, the only thing having in common was that dot com. The major oversight that took place during the turn of the dot com era was that the success of these businesses wasn't in truth due to them ending in .com, but whether the idea, and execution behind the underlying business is strong or not. Like how Amazon and Facebook saw unparalleled success not just because they were .coms, but because they were pioneering business models that would attract global demand to the services they were providing. The business of AGI has a sort of homogenous property. All AGI companies produce a service that is extremely similar in nature, the only ways they can compete with one another is through Capital Expenditure towards harnessing more computing power. This is the main reason capital is concentrating in a handful of companies trading at high multiples. To me, this is not an indication of a tech bubble but rather a product of how the AGI industry is poised to grow within our economy.
AGI as a Factor of Production
To get even more philosophical, we can think about how AGI itself enhances economic growth. We already see AGI tools applied in various ways, but the most widespread application pertains to the enhancement of human capital. While it is possible to make AGI models complete ongoing tasks completely on their own with zero human input, its far more common to see AGI tools be used, well, as tools. What I mean is that firms are not looking to replace human workers with AI ones (certain exceptions may include the manufacturing industry), instead they want to integrate AGI tools into their workforce as a means of optimizing regular processes, allowing them to access and process information with tremendous efficiency. The most observable economic outcome of this is firms being able to cut costs in human capital requirements, allowing them to achieve the same level of workflow with a smaller number of employees, or outsourcing solutions to business processes by way of automation utilizing AGI. The possibilities are endless and the economic impact of AGI appears to write itself new economic theory to explain how business growth is accelerating in unprecedented ways.
Semiconductor Physical Limitations: Blessing or Burden?
In 1965, Gordon Moore articulated his observation which would come to be known as Moore's Law. He observed that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles approximately every 2 years. Based not so much on law of physics, Moore's law describes an empirical relationship between time and the number of transistors per chip, suggesting that the rate of production advancements would allow for such doubling to occur on a biannual basis. And to Gordon's own surprise, he was right. Transistor count for a given chip roughly doubled every 2 years for the following 50 years. However, Gordon also predicted that Moore's Law would come to an end in 2025, where transistor sizes would reach the physical limit of 2 nanometers (10-15 silicon atoms in width). While it may appear as a bottleneck to the semiconductor and AI industry, not being able to fit anymore transistors on one chip, but in reality, this limitation pressures companies to pursue innovations such as semiconductor packaging, which is NVIDIA's bread and butter. This technique allows for the stacking and integrating of many different chips to perform together as one. This technology has already proven wildly successful and is the backbone to virtually all of NVIDIA's GPU products. Google has invented their own method to getting around the physical limitation of silicon chips, producing AI-specialized integrated circuits known as Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Catering these innovative solutions to expanding the frontier of AGI is almost a given.
How to play this market: A Technical Approach
If you have made it this far, I commend you. The following describes my approach to analyzing price activity in SOXL:
My First entry into SOXL took place on 5/30 with a unit cost of 16.50 USD. Two things can be noted prior to this entry. 1: Fund flows during late February, into March, and through April were extremely high, net inflow of 6.85 Billion USD, however price movement did not reflect the huge inflow until late April/early May where we began to see upward price direction. The beginning of June marked the start of the market bull rally which consolidated into our current price range of 25-28 USD, following contingent earnings releases of NASDAQ:ASML , NYSE:TSM , NASDAQ:NXPI and NASDAQ:INTC . The most recent pullback was a combination of a slightly concerning outlook from ASML, stating that tariffs on the EU would negatively affect projected sales growth for the 2026 fiscal year. As for TSM, there is not one concerning thing that could be said regarding the state of its business growth other than the New Taiwan Dollar gaining considerable strength over the USD amid trade relations between the US and Taiwan, affecting TSM's gross margin by an estimated 6%. NXPI released a sub par earnings and revenue growth outlook, but in my opinion this is not to be too heavily objectified as NXPI produces chips primarily for the Automotive sector, thus making it's sales heavily contingent on supply chain issues being faced by automotive manufacturers in leu of tariffs. NXPI carries a 3.5% market share in semiconductors whereas TSM carries a 68% market share. Lastly, INTC, earnings release I am almost embarrassed to talk about. If it were up to me I'd say they sell their plants in Ohio to TSM and look into opening a fruit stand instead. The most important earnings releases have yet to come though. NASDAQ:MSFT is just around the corner on 7/30, and NASDAQ:NVDA announces on 8/27. These two earnings reports will carry major weight in hinting the overall direction, momentum the market sees in AI demand growth, and the technology sector as a whole. Speculating, I have high expectations that both MSFT and NVDA will top all estimates, pushing the bar higher for 2025 into 2026.
If we look at our short-term 50-day SMA/EMA, you will notice a crossover occur on 5/6, a minor indication of a short term positive trend. Alone this is insignificant, but if we look at our 14-day Average True Range, we can see that this crossover aligns with a fall in ATR that would persist between the values of 1.37 and 1.59. This low ATR value signals that trailing volatility is actually quite low for semiconductors, considering the currently mixed market sentiment. Further along we see that price has crossed above both our long-term, 200-day SMA/EMA and a crossover occurred between the two on 7/23, serving as a small indication of a positive long term trend. Once again, not super significant on its own, but you will notice that the convergence aligns perfectly with a sharp increase in fund inflows, netting 491 Million USD in a matter of 3 trading days. If we see a continuation of net inflows over the several days, we can expect a near future extension of our bull rally, a semi-cyclical wave of inflows that concentrate during consolidation periods (which we have seen take place in the current price range between 25-28 USD following my first exit at 27.50 USD). If we extrapolate both our short-term and long-term SMA/EMA, we can anticipate a crossover to occur in the coming days to weeks. If this occurred, that would further reinforce our expectation for a positive long term trend. I have already locked in my entry 2 with a limit order executed at 25 USD. If all of the above conditions are met, I would confidently predict that we may see SOXL trade at around 42 USD in the coming months.
One more thing I would like to note, if we zoom out to our 5 year historical price progression, we can identify the previous high of 70.08 USD occurring on 7/11/2024. We know that the bull rally which took place in July of last year can be attributed to the first realization of AI as a driver for semiconductor demand, combined with renewed interest in GPU technology for applications in crypto. If we compare AI-related Capital Expenditure in fiscal year 2024 to AI-related Capital Expenditure of the first half of 2025 fiscal year: 246 Billion USD made up AI-related CapEx for all of 2024, vs first 6 months of 2025, adding up to 320 Billion USD. That is a 30% increase in capex, and we still have another 5-6 months to go. Just some food for thought.
Do you believe all of the above has been priced into SOXL, leave your thoughts in the comments!
Disclaimer
You must obviously keep in mind, SOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, you can expect volatility with such type of investment. However, in capturing a bullish market, a 3x leveraged investment may produce greater than 3x the returns as the underlying (non leveraged) assets, due to the effect of compounding growth of returns over time. However, the same is true for sideways, or bearish markets, losses may be amplified to greater than 3x. If this is an uncertainty you do not wish to be exposed to, I would opt for the non-leveraged Semiconductor ETF ( NASDAQ:SOXX ), or divide your allocation across the top 5-10 equity holdings of SOXL. Please remember to employ your OWN due diligence before making any investment decision, as none of what I am saying shall serve as financial advise to you, the reader.
Semiconductors
Is Samsung's Chip Bet Paying Off?Samsung Electronics is navigating a complex global landscape, marked by intense technological competition and shifting geopolitical alliances. A recent $16.5 billion deal to supply advanced chips to Tesla, confirmed by Elon Musk, signals a potential turning point. This contract, set to run until late 2033, underscores Samsung's strategic commitment to its foundry business. The agreement will dedicate Samsung's new Texas fabrication plant to producing Tesla's next-generation AI6 chips, a move Musk himself highlighted for its significant strategic importance. This partnership aims to bolster Samsung's position in the high-stakes semiconductor sector, particularly in advanced manufacturing and AI.
The deal's economic and technological implications are substantial. Samsung's foundry division has faced profitability challenges, experiencing estimated losses exceeding $3.6 billion in the first half of the year. This large-scale contract is expected to help mitigate those losses, providing a much-needed revenue stream. From a technological standpoint, Samsung aims to accelerate its 2-nanometer (2nm) mass production efforts. While its 3nm process faced yield hurdles, the Tesla collaboration, with Musk's direct involvement in optimizing efficiency, could be crucial for improving 2nm yields and attracting future clients like Qualcomm. This pushes Samsung to remain at the forefront of semiconductor innovation.
Beyond the immediate financial and technological gains, the Tesla deal holds significant geopolitical and geostrategic weight. The dedicated Texas fab enhances U.S. domestic chip production capabilities, aligning with American goals for supply chain resilience. This deepens the U.S.-South Korea semiconductor alliance. For South Korea, the deal strengthens its critical tech exports and may provide leverage in ongoing trade negotiations, particularly concerning potential U.S. tariffs. While Samsung still trails TSMC in foundry market share and faces fierce competition in High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) from SK Hynix, this strategic alliance with Tesla positions Samsung to solidify its recovery and expand its influence in the global high-tech arena.
Qualcomm: Beyond the Smartphone Storm?Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) navigates a dynamic landscape, demonstrating resilience despite smartphone market headwinds and geopolitical complexities. Bernstein SocGen Group recently reaffirmed its "Outperform" rating, setting a \$185.00 price target. This confidence stems from Qualcomm's robust financials, including a 16% revenue growth over the last year and strong liquidity. While concerns persist regarding potential Section 232 tariffs and Apple's diminishing contribution, the company's strategic diversification into high-growth "adjacency" markets like automotive and IoT promises significant value. Qualcomm currently trades at a substantial discount compared to the S&P 500 and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), signaling an attractive entry point for discerning investors.
Qualcomm's technological prowess underpins its long-term growth narrative, extending far beyond its core wireless chipmaking. The company aggressively pushes **on-device AI**, leveraging its Qualcomm AI Engine to enable power-efficient, private, and low-latency AI applications across various devices. Its Snapdragon platforms power advanced features in smartphones, PCs, and the burgeoning **automotive sector** with the Snapdragon Digital Chassis. Further expanding its reach, Qualcomm's recent acquisition of Alphawave IP Group PLC targets the data center market, enhancing its AI capabilities and high-speed connectivity solutions. These strategic moves position Qualcomm at the forefront of the **high-tech revolution**, capitalizing on the pervasive demand for intelligent and connected experiences.
The company's extensive **patent portfolio**, encompassing over 160,000 patents, forms a critical competitive moat. Qualcomm's lucrative Standard Essential Patent (SEP) licensing program generates substantial revenue and solidifies its influence across global wireless standards, from 3G to 5G and beyond. This intellectual property leadership, combined with a calculated pivot away from its historical reliance on a single major customer like Apple, empowers Qualcomm to pursue new revenue streams. By aiming for a 50/50 split between mobile and non-mobile revenues by 2029, Qualcomm strategically mitigates market risks and secures its position as a diversified technology powerhouse. This assertive expansion, alongside its commitment to dividends, underscores a confident long-term outlook for the semiconductor giant.
AMD: Potential Mid-Term Reversal from Macro SupportPrice has reached ideal macro support zone: 90-70 within proper proportion and structure for at least a first wave correction to be finished.
Weekly
As long as price is holding above this week lows, odds to me are moving towards continuation of the uptrend in coming weeks (and even years).
1h timeframe:
Thank you for attention and best of luck to your trading!
NVDA 1-Hour Chart UpdateHey everyone, just wanted to share a quick update on NVDA’s 1-hour chart. Following last week’s bull flag breakout, the stock appears to be consolidating into what looks like a solid bull pennant formation.
With major tech earnings on the horizon and the recent approval to sell H20 chips to China, this pattern could be setting the stage for another breakout. Will NVDA continue its impressive rally, or is this just a breather before the next move?
NVIDIA -- Major Resistance // Confluence of 3 FactorsHello Traders!
WOW... This chart is quite incredible I must say.
It's amazing how price is currently at an exact point where 2 major trendlines converge which also nearly coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Price closed almost to the penny just above the major trendline connecting the prior highs. It will be very interesting to see what price does over the next few days.
What Does These Converging Trendlines Mean?: Think of a trendline like a wall... Depending on how "strong" the trendline is, this wall could be made from wood all the way through to vibranium straight from Captain Americas shield! These two trendlines converging would likely resemble a steel wall and would be extremely hard to penetrate. (Although there are no gurantees in trading)
What To Watch For: I will be watching to see if price can both break and confirm above both resistance trendlines. It will take MEGA buying pressure to accomplish this and would likely mean continuation to the upside. If price cannot break and confirm above then we will likely see a large retrace to support.
Thanks everyone and best of luck on your trading journeys!
Advanced Micro Devices | AMD | Long at $126.00Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD may be the sleeping giant in the semiconductor / AI space. While all eyes on NVidia NASDAQ:NVDA , earnings for NASDAQ:AMD grew by 800% over the past year... and are now forecast to grow 40% per year. Any other company would be soaring right now (like NVidia), but that company is getting all the attention. And, to me, this means opportunity for the future. The cashflow is likely to grow tremendously for
NASDAQ:AMD into 2027 and beyond, which may inevitably reward investors with dividends.
From a technical analysis perspective, NASDAQ:AMD just entered my historical simple moving average zone. This area (currently $108-$126) is where I will be gathering shares. Something tremendous would have to change regarding the fundamentals of this company (like a scandal) for the overall thesis to change. There may be some near-term price pains as NVidia gets all the focus, but to meet demand in the semiconductor and AI space, NASDAQ:AMD is poised to fulfill that roll in the future.
Target #1 = $158.00
Target #2 = $175.00
Target #3 = $188.00
Target #4 = $205.00
Applied Materials | AMAT | Long at $169.75Republican Ashley Moody recently dropped $200k-$500k on Applied Materials $NASDAQ:AMAT. The semiconductor boom may not be over...
Price-to-earnings: 21.68x (great in comparison to others...)
Debt-to-equity: 0.34x (low)
Cash flow: $10.4 billion (FY2024)
Insiders awarded options recently
Unless NASDAQ:NVDA brings the market down, NASDAQ:AMAT is in a personal buy zone at $169.75. While the price may dip in the near-term to the $140s, bullish until the semi boom dies...
Targets:
$195.00
$215.00
$240.00
SMCI buy cycle in progress into yr endStrong buy rates on order flow indicating buy-side targets as follows
tp1 = 88
tp2 = 96
tp3 = 105
...by end of 2025
Still expecting strong sell wave sometime by mid-2026 all the way back to 20's as the semiconductor space continues dealing with growing bearish forces. Recent weakness should be seen as "shots across the bow" or warning shots. Next set of highs will be opportunities to EXIT and go short imo.
$NVDA: Levitating higher: Next Stop 175$: 250$ Before cycle endsIn this summer bull market, it makes more sense to talk about the large cap winners. NASDAQ:NVDA chart is a beauty to watch with the steady climb of this mega cap stock levitates all the indices including S&P500 and NASDAQ. After hitting 90$ during the Liberation Day drawdown the stock is 60% up since then and recovered all its losses and hitting a new ATH. With stock at 158 $ it is targeting the highs of the upward sloping Fib Retracement channel which indicates that stock can reach a price of 175$ before this run loses its steam. At RSI of 65 this is not overbought compared to its historical level of 84. Hence there might be more room left in this bull run for $NVDA. My prediction is that before end of July 2025 the stock hits 175$.
But where do we like to see this outperforming stock during this cycle of bull run. Will it hit 5T USD before Dec 2024? If NASDAQ:NVDA hits 5T USD, then the stock will be 205 $ which in my opinion not impossible before Dec 2025. 40% Upside in the Market Cap and the stock price is achievable in a momentum stock like $NVDA.
Verdict: NASDAQ:NVDA @ 175 $ before July 2025 & 205 $ or 5 T USD Market Cap before Dec 2025
INTC getting ready to start it's upward trajectoryINTC has been ranging and coiling since July of 2024. It finally, is starting to look like bullish movement is about to break upwards.
As you can see, INTC has just broken the downward trend line as well as the triangle pattern. A break and hold above $24.40 would indicate the start of a new uptrend in the chart.
Indications that the stock is gaining bullish momentum on the weekly chart:
The Williams %R is approaching and getting ready to break the 50 line.
The MACD is bullish and approaching the zero line.
The stock has bounced off of the volume shelf on the AVP 4 times and is now breaking out of technical patterns.
Money flow on market cipher B has crossed over green.
EMA's are starting to turn upward to flip bullish.
The marked move on this triangle pattern is approximately $40.
From a fundamental standpoint, Intel is trying to fix the business on two tracks at one time:
1)Near-term – ship competitive AI-centric products now (CPUs, GPUs, Gaudi accelerators) to put revenue and margins back on a growth path.
2) Long-term – reinvent itself as a contract chip-maker (Intel Foundry) so it can win outside customers and leverage its huge fab investments.
Think of it as “sell more chips today, sell more manufacturing tomorrow.”
Let's see Intel can build enough momentum to break this range for the bigger move up. The table is set from a technical standpoint.
Not financial advice. Do your own research.
Is AMD Poised to Redefine the Future of AI and Computing?Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is rapidly transforming its market position, recently converting a Wall Street skeptic, Melius Research, into a bullish advocate. Analyst Ben Reitzes upgraded AMD stock to "buy" from "hold," significantly raising the price target to \$175 from \$110, citing the company's substantial progress in artificial intelligence (AI) chips and computing systems. This optimistic outlook is fueled by a confluence of factors, including surging demand from hyperscale cloud providers and sovereign entities, alongside colossal revenue opportunities in AI inferencing workloads. Another upgrade from CFRA to "strong buy" further underscores this shifting perception, highlighting AMD's new product launches and an expanding customer base, including key players like Oracle and OpenAI, for its accelerator technology and the maturing ROCm software stack.
AMD's advancements in the AI accelerator market are particularly noteworthy. The company's MI300 series, including the MI300X with its industry-leading 192GB HBM3 memory, and the newly unveiled MI350 series, are designed to deliver significant price and performance advantages over rivals like Nvidia's H100. At its "Advancing AI 2025" event on June 12, AMD not only showcased the MI350's potential for up to 38x improvement in energy efficiency for AI training but also previewed "Helios" full-rack AI systems. These comprehensive, plug-and-play solutions, leveraging future MI400 series GPUs and Zen 6-based EPYC "Venice" CPUs, position AMD to directly compete for the lucrative business of hyperscale operators. As AI inference workloads are projected to consume 58% of AI budgets, AMD's focus on efficient, scalable AI platforms puts it in a prime position to capture a growing share of the rapidly expanding AI data center market.
Beyond AI, AMD is pushing the boundaries of traditional computing with its upcoming Zen 6 Ryzen CPUs, reportedly targeting "insane" clock speeds, well above 6 GHz, with some leaks suggesting peaks of 6.4-6.5 GHz. Built on TSMC's advanced 2nm lithography node, the Zen 6 architecture, developed by the same team behind the successful Zen 4, promises significant architectural improvements and a substantial increase in performance per clock. While these are leaked targets, the combination of AMD's proven design capabilities and TSMC's cutting-edge process technology makes these ambitious clock speeds appear highly achievable. This aggressive strategy aims to deliver compelling performance gains for PC enthusiasts and enterprise users, further solidifying AMD's competitive stance against Intel's forthcoming Nova Lake CPUs, which are also expected around 2026 and feature a modular design and up to 52 cores.
Silicon (SLAB)–Leading the Charge in Next-Gen IoT InfrastructureCompany Overview:
Silicon NASDAQ:SLAB Laboratories is a top-tier fabless semiconductor firm, specializing in low-power mixed-signal ICs and connectivity software for IoT, industrial, automotive, and consumer applications. With deep OEM integration, it’s a pivotal player in the connected devices ecosystem.
Key Catalysts:
Long-Term Growth Strategy 🚀
Management is targeting 20%+ long-term revenue growth, outpacing the broader IoT sector (mid-teens CAGR).
Fueled by megatrends in smart cities, connected health, and industrial automation.
$10B+ in Design Wins 🔧
Over $10 billion in cumulative design wins across Bluetooth, Zigbee, Thread, Z-Wave, and Wi-Fi platforms.
These wins translate to $2–2.5B in annualized revenue potential, reinforcing deep OEM trust and product stickiness.
Next-Gen Series 3 SoCs 💡
Built on 22nm technology, delivering up to 100x more compute power.
Enhanced security and AI/ML-ready, enabling real-time edge intelligence across smart meters, wearables, and industrial sensors.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on SLAB above $121.00–$122.00.
Upside Target: $200.00–$210.00, driven by design momentum, IoT innovation leadership, and expanding addressable market.
🧠 SLAB is not just riding the IoT wave—it’s helping build the surfboard.
#SiliconLabs #SLAB #IoT #Semiconductors #SmartDevices #AIatTheEdge #Bluetooth #Zigbee #Thread #WirelessTech #IndustrialAutomation #Bullish #ConnectedFuture
Bullish Thesis: Why AMD Stock Could Soar by Year-End 2025If you haven`t bought AMD before the previous rally:
What to consider now:
1. AI Tailwinds Are Accelerating
AMD is finally gaining serious traction in the AI GPU race. Its MI300X accelerator chips are being adopted by big names like Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle for data center AI workloads. While NVIDIA is still dominant, AMD is expected to grab 10–20% of the AI GPU market share by 2025, according to industry estimates. That’s a multibillion-dollar opportunity.
The MI300X already passed $1B in revenue within its first quarters.
AI server TAM (total addressable market) is expected to grow to $400B by 2027 — AMD is positioning itself aggressively to carve out its slice.
2. Valuation Looks Reasonable vs Peers
AMD trades at a forward P/E around 40, significantly below Nvidia (which trades over 60x) despite similar growth projections for the next 2 years.
Revenue expected to grow over 15–20% YoY in 2025.
Gross margins expanding as high-performance chips dominate the mix.
3. Diversified Growth: Beyond AI
Gaming segment (PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X chips) remains strong.
Embedded segment from Xilinx acquisition continues to generate solid cash flow.
Client CPU business is rebounding as the PC market stabilizes.
4. Strong Management and Execution
CEO Lisa Su is widely respected for turning AMD around and guiding the company through major innovations and acquisitions (Xilinx, Pensando). Execution has remained consistent, especially in delivering cutting-edge performance-per-watt chips.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
SOXL 1D — With a base like this, the ride’s worth itOn the daily chart of SOXL, since early March, a textbook inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed and is now in its activation phase. The left shoulder sits at $16.67, the head at $7.21, and the right shoulder at $15.11. The symmetry is classic, with volume stabilization and a narrowing range — all the elements are in place.
The key moment was the breakout through the descending daily trendline around $19.00. Price didn’t just pierce the level — it held above it, signaling a phase shift. There was an attempt to break through the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $19.60, which led to a pullback — not on heavy selling, but on decreasing volume. This wasn’t a rejection, it was a pause.
This pullback serves as a retest of the breakout zone and the 20-day moving average. The overall structure remains bullish: price stays above all key EMAs and MAs, RSI climbs past 60, and the candlestick structure is stable. Volume rises during up moves and fades during pullbacks — classic signs of reaccumulation.
The measured target from the pattern is $32.00, calculated from the head-to-neckline height projected from the breakout point. As long as price holds above $18.40, the setup remains intact. A break above $19.60 with confirmation would open the door to acceleration.
This isn’t a momentum play — it’s a setup months in the making. The structure is there, the confirmation is there, and most importantly — the price behavior makes sense. With a base like this, the ride ahead looks worth taking.
AVGO – All-Time High Breakout with Flag Pattern TriggerBroadcom ( NASDAQ:AVGO ) is breaking out of an 11-day consolidation flag, pushing through the trendline and into all-time highs — a textbook momentum setup.
🔹 Flag Pattern Breakout
After a strong run, NASDAQ:AVGO spent 11 days chopping in a tight flag just under highs.
Today, we’re seeing a clean trendline break, signaling the start of a potential fresh leg higher.
ATH breakout + flag pattern = momentum trader’s dream.
🔹 My Trade Plan:
1️⃣ Entry: Long on the flag breakout and trendline break.
2️⃣ Risk Level: Stop is down at $247, just under the consolidation base.
3️⃣ Target: Riding the trend — trailing stop strategy once price confirms above highs.
Why I Like This Setup:
Strong consolidation near highs = no weakness.
Breakout is happening with clean structure and clear volume pickup.
NASDAQ:AVGO is a leader name — when it goes, it goes.
Micron Technology - Starting the next +80% move!Micron Technology - NASDAQ:MU - perfectly respects structure:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Starting back in mid 2024, Micron Technology created the expected long term top formation. We witnessed a correction of about -60%, which ultimately resulted in a retest of a confluence of support. So far, Micron Technology rallied about +60%, with another +80% to follow soon.
Levels to watch: $150, $180
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Micron Technology (MU) – Powering the AI Memory SupercycleCompany Overview:
Micron NASDAQ:MU is a crucial player in the AI infrastructure stack, providing advanced DRAM, NAND, and NOR flash memory solutions that fuel everything from data centers to mobile edge devices.
Key Catalysts:
AI-Driven Memory Demand ⚙️
High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) adopted in AI accelerators from Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell.
Positions Micron at the core of the AI supply chain, reducing exposure to chip cycle volatility.
Data Center Surge 📈
Data center DRAM revenue tripled YoY in Q2 2025, driven by hyperscaler AI infrastructure upgrades.
Strengthens revenue diversification and margin profile.
Technology Leadership 🔬
Launch of 1-gamma DRAM node and LPDDR5X samples enhances mobile, cloud, and auto capabilities.
Keeps Micron on the cutting edge of memory innovation.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We remain bullish on MU above $95.00–$97.00.
Upside Target: $155.00–$160.00, supported by AI compute growth, hyperscale momentum, and next-gen product launches.
💡 Micron is not just riding the AI wave—it’s building its memory core.
#Micron #MU #Semiconductors #AI #HBM #DataCenter #DRAM #NAND #Nvidia #AMD #Hyperscalers #TechLeadership
Why QuickLogic? Unpacking its Semiconductor Surge.QuickLogic Corporation, a vital developer of embedded FPGA (eFPGA) technology, currently navigates a rapidly evolving semiconductor landscape marked by intense technological innovation and shifting geopolitical priorities. Its recent inclusion in the Intel Foundry Chiplet Alliance signals a pivotal moment, affirming QuickLogic's expanding influence in both defense and high-volume commercial markets. This strategic collaboration, combined with QuickLogic’s advanced technological offerings, positions the company for significant growth as global requirements for secure and adaptable silicon intensify.
Critical geopolitical imperatives and a profound shift in semiconductor technology fundamentally drive the company's ascent. Nations are increasingly prioritizing robust, secure, and domestically sourced semiconductor supply chains, particularly for sensitive aerospace, defense, and government applications. Intel Foundry's efforts, including the Chiplet Alliance, directly support these strategic demands by cultivating a secure, standards-based ecosystem within the U.S. QuickLogic’s alignment with this initiative enhances its status as a trusted domestic supplier, expanding its reach within markets that value security and reliability above all else.
Technologically, the industry's embrace of chiplet-based architectures plays directly into QuickLogic’s strengths. As traditional monolithic scaling faces mounting challenges, the modular chiplet approach gains traction, allowing for the integration of separately manufactured functional blocks. QuickLogic's eFPGA technology provides configurable logic, perfectly suited for seamless integration within these multi-chip packages. Its proprietary Australis™ IP Generator rapidly develops eFPGA Hard IP for advanced nodes like Intel’s 18A, optimizing power, performance, and area. Beyond defense, QuickLogic's eFPGA integrates into platforms like Faraday Technology's FlashKit™-22RRAM SoC, offering unparalleled flexibility for IoT and edge AI applications by enabling post-silicon hardware customization and extending product lifecycles.
Membership in the Intel Foundry Chiplet Alliance offers QuickLogic tangible advantages, including early access to Intel Foundry's advanced processes and packaging, reduced prototyping costs through multi-project-wafer shuttles, and participation in defining interoperable standards via the UCIe standard. This strategic positioning solidifies QuickLogic’s competitive edge in the advanced semiconductor manufacturing landscape. Its consistent innovation and robust strategic alliances underscore the company’s strong future trajectory in a world hungry for adaptable and secure silicon solutions.
AMD - Inverted Head & Shoulders (Bullish Reversal)Let´s see if we can break the neckline (White trendline) and stay above with a close and possibly a retest on the neckline to confirm this pattern. If so, Im looking for the previous top on daily which is the all time high (So far).
This is not a financial advise. Always do your own research and decision before investing.
Credo Technology Group (CRDO) – Powering the AI Data Center BoomCompany Snapshot:
Credo Technology NASDAQ:CRDO is a rising star in AI infrastructure, delivering high-speed, low-power connectivity solutions that are mission-critical to modern data centers.
Key Catalysts:
AI Infrastructure Tailwinds 🧠🏢
Direct exposure to Active Electrical Cables (AEC) and PCIe retimers
Positioned for rapid demand acceleration from AI, cloud, and hyperscale data centers
AEC chip market expected to grow 15x from $68M (2023) to $1B+ by 2028
Sticky Software + Hardware Model 🧩
PILOT software platform offers real-time diagnostics and performance tuning
Enables a recurring revenue model and strengthens customer retention
Scalable, Energy-Efficient Portfolio ⚡🌐
High-bandwidth, low-power design aligns with sustainability goals of large data centers
Integrated solutions are already seeing early adoption momentum
Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $51.00–$52.00
🚀 Upside Target: $90.00–$92.00
📈 Growth Drivers: AI infrastructure demand, software expansion, chip market scale
💡 Credo isn’t just riding the AI wave—it’s building the rails for it. #CRDO #AIInfrastructure #Semiconductors
Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): Software-Driven Growth Meets AI Hardware ECompany Overview:
Broadcom NASDAQ:AVGO is undergoing a strategic transformation—shifting from a hardware-centric model to a hybrid software and subscription platform. The VMware acquisition is proving pivotal, reshaping AVGO’s margin profile and deepening its enterprise moat.
🔑 Growth Catalysts:
💻 VMware Integration = High-Margin Recurring Revenue
70%+ of top 10,000 VMware customers already moved to subscription model
Transition boosts revenue visibility, margin expansion, and valuation multiples
Strong cross-sell opportunities within Broadcom’s enterprise base
⚙️ Custom AI Chips – A Key NVIDIA Hedge
Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators offer an alternative amid export curbs
Strong demand from hyperscalers and cloud players (Amazon, Google, Meta)
Positioned as a strategic silicon supplier in the AI infrastructure stack
📶 Diversification = Resilience
Deep reach across networking, broadband, storage, and wireless
Reduced cyclicality vs. pure-play semiconductor firms
Balanced between enterprise software and hardware demand
🛡️ Geopolitical Edge
Broadcom’s chip solutions provide alternatives in regions impacted by U.S.-China tech tensions
VMware’s software suite ensures relevance in multi-cloud and hybrid IT environments
📊 Financial Highlights:
Consistent double-digit free cash flow growth
EBITDA margin expansion via software scale and cost synergy post-VMware
Shareholder-friendly with strong buybacks and dividend growth
📈 Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $165.00–$170.00
🚀 Upside Target: $270.00–$280.00
🎯 Thesis: With AI tailwinds, VMware synergies, and rising recurring revenues, Broadcom is evolving into a software+silicon powerhouse—positioned for outsized returns and resilience in volatile markets.
#Broadcom #AVGO #VMware #AIchips #Semiconductors #EnterpriseSoftware #RecurringRevenue