$SMH Recovered around 93% NASDAQ:SMH Recovered around 93% from the October 10th 2022 lows. Testing the upper range of the parallel channel and also a double top. A sell off around 11% would leave NASDAQ:SMH back down to its uptrend line.
Semiconductors
AMD - Greed Doth Bad Habits BreedI've noticed that, especially in the last week, the trading community has really transformed into almost full bore greed. People are buying highs on almost anything, especially some of the most dubious of stocks, and getting rewarded with 5-15% gains every day.
There's even a popular post on here that asks "As new highs approach, what is the bear case?"
Whenever the climate is like this, you really, really have to take a step back and cool your head.
If we were in a sustained bull market like we had in 2021, greed may ostensibly be fair enough. But when the Fed rate is at 5.5 percent and there aren't going to be cuts, with 6% enroute before year end, and TBond yields acting like they want to court with 4.5% or 5%, you're sort of in the Twilight Zone right now.
If repricing to the downside really does occur, it's going to be fast and sudden.
AMD is the company that floundered, and hard, after losing the arms race to Intel for a lot of years. Then it hired a Chinese CEO, who flew over to the Chinese Communist Party's land and did some courtship, and then all of a sudden AMD was worth a lot of money, and has been for a while.
You have to really be very careful with anything connected to the CCP and China because of the geopolitical tensions between Xi Jinping and the International Rules Based Order.
All the yammering about "Taiwan" is about the IRBO looking to plant a man from Taiwan in Xi's seat when the CCP falls in the exceptionally near term future.
Yet Xi, a Chinese nationalist, can defend China's 5,000 year old Divinely-imparted culture, and himself, by weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Gong that was launched by the Party and former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999.
If any of the above really transpires, please use your head: Beijing's noon is New York's midnight. Whatever happens in China is going to happen outside of NYSE/Nasdaq hours, which means those enchanted by greed are one day going to enjoy the bitter fruit of a brutal breakaway gap that never comes back.
So, AMD earnings are tomorrow post market. This is notable, because despite all the bull fever and delirium, I note that we really might be watching the markets top right now:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
And if you take a look at a number of stock market calls I link below, you'll see there's a number of warning signals that are really worth considering, but still some pretty nice long opportunities.
So with AMD, what I'd like to point out as we head into earnings are two things:
1. The market makers left a goalpost at $133, based on the monthly. Price action absolutely does not have to take this point out, but since it counts as "resistance" to retail traders, it stands to reason it will go at some point
2. Price action since the late-June dump is NOT bullish. It is a classic markdown-and-sell-a-lot-more pattern that traps all the people who bought over $120 and have been comfortably numb averaging down.
On weekly charts, the red box is a place that price action is likely to return to, and the catalyst for this may very well be earnings.
There's really a precedent for this, with Taiwan Semiconductor, which I think is a very high likelihood long-term long even as markets sell off, because it's not a member of the Nasdaq or the SPX:
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge
An important thing to note about TSM is that it's a very similar set up to AMD, but also a lot more bullish of a pattern, and yet it lost some 7% on earnings.
Earnings plays are very hard because the fundamentals don't matter. You get major gap repricing and have to pay a high premium for leverage or for puts/calls to boot.
Yet, a dump under $100 for AMD would likely be a real buying opportunity with a target over $135.
While you might find it too good to be true, May was already a $50/65% month for AMD.
Yet nobody wants to buy when there's big red. Instead, they want to buy on green and HODL, because you've been so perfectly conditioned, Pavloved, and trained by smart money.
Alternatively, if earnings were to raid $135, it may very well be the sell of the year.
Good luck. With the situation as it is, you should always ask yourself: "Are we really going to set new highs, or are we at the top of a bear market rally?"
American Superconductor - Floating Crystals, Floating CandlesThe new rage on financial social media is that a new room temperature superconductor has been discovered, and appears to be replicable in labs.
This is significant because superconductors normally have to be either really hot or really cold during their operations.
So, AMSC has Superconductor in its name and is naturally pumping, and has been since May.
The biggest pump was August 1 at 60%, spurred on my a lot of social media chatter, especially in Korean and Chinese.
Greed in the markets is already at extremes, people are convinced new all time highs on indexes are as good as in the bank, and it's very dangerous.
Moreover, you're dealing with hidden geopolitical risks from a Chinese Communist Party being on the edge of collapse that's guilty of the 24-year-long persecution and organ harvesting genocide of Falun Dafa meditation's 100 million practitioners.
And people want to long the top on stuff that's already up 400%+.
The world truly is an asylum.
And look at the monthly bar this has produced with people longing a daily range between $14 and $17.
The weekly candle looks more sane, because at least we're on Tuesday, but it still shows that this swing may have already topped.
So, here's the thing about the fundamentals of this kind of trade:
1. The Superconductor discovery right now is a piece of lead apatite crystal that is capable of majority levitation and diamagnetism when placed on a magnetic plate.
2. The crystal has been made by students in a lab using a paper from Korea.
3. It looks like a little piece of graphite/charcoal. Unless you put it on a magnetic plate, it doesn't even float.
4. Let's say the crystal is truly revolutionary, how many years away from it making its way into a sellable product are you?
5. Why would you think American Superconductor Corporation is going to be the one who licenses something disruptive?
6. Wouldn't TSM, Intel, or AMD, or some Elon Musk/Peter Thiel/Sam Altman-type venture be the ones to steal it?
7. The stock has already quadrupled in price
8. At Tuesday's close, the market cap is $488 billion
9. Look at their earnings results: they bring in $25 million in revenue quarterly
10. Next ER is August 9 post-market. Can you maintain a $500 million market cap when they report $20 million in revenue and the CEO tells investors and banks on the conference call that they aren't going to be able to profit from the discovery?
In essence, you're kind of dealing with a real corporation that's being subjected to something of a Bed Bath and Beyond-style pump and dump.
And this is at a time when greed in the markets is already extreme. People are longing the top on things like Palantir and SOFI without second thought and gettin' paid daily.
Yet the United States credit rating was downgraded today after the Treasury said it wanted to issue another $1.8 trillion worth of debt, and now the Nasdaq and the SPX are gap down on Wednesday futures open.
I discuss this here:
SPX - The Sound of a Shattering Iceberg
I actually think there's a long trade on ASMC over $20 before the hypenstein is over.
But if you don't see it manifest at market open Wednesday and prices lower than $13.31 are traded as the indexes drive a lot of things down, you're probably going back to $10 first, which is just horrific for top longers.
Take a look at the five minute chart.
Tuesday market close was either a big buy or 45 minutes before market close was a big short.
You have to decide for yourself. But sell the news, man, is really a piece of wisdom.
After all, implied volatility is so high that an August 18 at the money call is $4.10, on a $16 stock.
That's a lot of premium and the options sellers just absolutely love your exit liquidity.
Is NVDA done correcting? LONGNVDA shot up on earnings two months ago and more or less went sideways until
mid July when it trended up for a week and then reversed downward.
On the 2H chart, I have placed both a VWAP anchored to the earnings date as
well as a volume profile. Price is currently above the 0.5 Fib level as well
as at one standard deviation above the mean VWAP and above the POC line of
the volume profile. The mean VWAP and POC are confluent at about 422.
I suspect that it is at this level that volatility will be the highest and at where
buyers will step in to open a trade shares of NVDA that have been oversold
and are undervalued. Because of that, I will place NVDA on my watchlist for
a long trade when it trends down approaching 422. The stop loss will be
418 or about 1% while targeting the recent double top of 475 and so a zone of
horizontal resistance confluent with dynamic resistance in the red line of
two standard deviations above the mean VWAP. Confirmation of an upcoming
reversal is the histogram of the zero-lag MACD going red to green. NVDA has
had a great run this year (220%) and its heavy presence in the AI megatrend
bodes well for a good continuation.
AMSC 57% July rise AI tech ( chips) upcoming earnings LONGAMSC has had a great rise since the beginning of the AI revolution. From the overlay of
the anchored VWAP this would be a VWAP breakout that closed the last trading day
with a correction pullback and then a bounce off the POC line of the volume profile.
The natural stop loss for a long trade is directly under the POC line. As a strong bull run stock,
the MACD just showed another line cross above the histogram. Amplitudes are rising. This
sector is scorching hot. Some will call it overextended and overvalued. Buy weakness - yeah for
sure unless its going to get worse. Buy strength when you determine the probability that
it will go higher. This long trade will not wait for me. I will take it and be watchful
for signs of reversal. I do not think that I will see them anytime soon. With earnings coming
this week and trader interest peaking. I will jump in here and watch for good action.
To be safe I will take off part of the position before the earnings.
Raytheon - A Potential Earnings Pump To WatchEveryone wants to get rich quick. Because getting rich quick means you:
a) Get rich
b) Quick
Then you can wear big ugly sunglasses, a crappy t-shirt, flipflops, sit on the beach, eat a lot of meat, drink a lot of alcohol, and be promiscuous with women.
This is the modern human's dream, right?
And so everyone loves to speculate on potential earnings pumps and dumps.
There really is more to aim for in life.
Raytheon is one of the U.S. Military Industrial Complex cornerstones and is more or less a weapons mill for the NATO proxy war in Ukraine, which is of note because of the recent escalations of the conflict and how it can affect the U.S. Petrodollar, and thus bonds, oil, gold, equities, everything.
DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia
Geopolitically, the conflict between China and the International Rules Based Order is heating up. The current edict is to "de-risk but not decouple" from China (notice they never say "from the Chinese Communist Party"?).
In mid-June CEO Hayes was quoted by the propaganda machines as stating that decoupling from China was pretty much impossible because of all the parts and components that are manufactured in the mainland.
What this means, if you ask me, is that going forward, certain companies are going to have a very hard time meeting their target EPS and revenue estimates.
Raytheon may very well be one of them, as foreshadowed by a salvo of sanctions the Xi Jinping administration placed on them and Lockheed Martin.
The situation in China is very volatile right now. The IRBO wants control of China when the CCP falls. Xi Jinping and the other nationalists want to make sure that outside forces do not steal the motherland.
And so one day soon, we may find that Xi has thrown away the CCP in the middle of the U.S. night, and the markets will have themselves a series of consecutive red days like we've all never seen before.
Xi can weaponize the crimes against humanity that the Party and the Jiang Zemin faction have committed in the persecution of Falun Gong that started on July 20, 1999, and use the truth to protect both himself and China.
Organ harvesting and genocide of a group of 100 million spiritual cultivators with upright faith is certainly enough of a weapon to handle all the threats the motherland can be facing.
So why do you care about this if you're trading Raytheon?
Because a basic principle of markets is they go up when big money is selling and go down when big money is buying.
Raytheon and other military companies ironically never really pumped following the QE recovery from the COVID pandemic dump.
It wasn't until the Ukraine War began that Raytheon finally ran the highs.
And then it retraced.
That kind of retrace is actually really bullish and what bulls should want to see if they want their $145 billion~ company to become a $1.4 trillion company.
But the problem with the theory is more manifest on the weekly charts:
31 weeks of ranging and no breakout is not bullish.
And yet, after taking lows, it continues to recover. The most notable price swing is the $105 to $92 leg that just occurred.
I feel that Raytheon has some fundamental hidden bearish divergences to it and this is why it has traded this way all along, with the ultimate purpose of selling a lot high, and then selling it all above the all time high.
This hidden divergence, I think, is that U.S.-based companies may find themselves cut off from the Chinese supply chain in the very near future.
Only to tip all the bulls on their backs like stranded turtles and then dump and dump and dump and dump and not come back.
So I believe that with the setup at hand, the catalyst is actually the July earnings.
But if you look back at previous earnings, Raytheon doesn't have major pumps. It can go a bit and then it will run after.
Implied volatility on options for the July 28 expiry are only 20%, slightly higher than the 17% average.
But before we get there, I expect we're going to see prices return to the $92-93 range and give the best buying opportunity.
The catalyst for this, I believe, will simply be market-wide correction, which I outline in the following two posts:
Nasdaq - The Great Bear Trap
And
SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar'
In summary, there will be a shakeout in equities that will probably not be long lived, even if it's violent.
And after that, things will make their final run up, many of which will set new highs or new 52W highs, etc.
What's left for the remainder of 2023 and the start of 2024 doesn't look like it's going to be very pleasant, to speak frankly.
So make sure if you see Raytheon at a new high, you don't go getting ahead of yourself, longing the top.
ASML: Bearish Cypher Trend Break Down ConfirmationASML has broken below a trend line and confirmed it with a secondary weaker test and during this test we formed a Bearish Abandoned Baby, some MACD Bearish Divergence, and printed a Bearish PPO Volatility Circle. With all this confirmation at the potential Cypher PCZ, I'd say we have a pretty good chance of this Cypher playing out instead of the deeper .886/1.13 Shark.
$SMH Semiconductors Double TopNASDAQ:SMH Semiconductors on a weekly chart tested a Double Top. Now we have to watch if SMH will consolidate in a bullish way and the break out or does it sell off like it did in 2022.
TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long HedgeAt present, the US equities markets are at a critical inflection point, especially tech.
We're still in the bear side of a correction in an extremely major bull market impulse fuelled by Party Central's COVID stimulus programs, and yet flirting with all time highs.
Sometimes markets top without a blow off. Nasdaq's daily chart, above, shows price raided the 16,000 psychological level and the January 2022 pivot that ended the bull market.
This is really significant in and of itself, but even more significant in that the 3% rejection thus far indicates that tech *may* have truly topped already.
In my recent call on NVIDIA, some people correctly criticized that I have the problem of being bearish when a stock is clearly bullish.
I have thought about this quite a bit and think the criticism is fair.
With NVIDIA, I believe the stock has either topped or will top before/at $500 in a coming impulse. However, if one had have just gone long on the dips from low $400s to the $480 mark, they could have financed a freeroll "Short God From The Top" dream trade with potentially huge upside.
And that brings us to Taiwan Semiconductor, a company that I believe is a clear long on all time frames and has several significant advantages:
1. It's Taiwan's gemstone and thus highly relevant to the geopolitical concerns I will outline below
2. Producer of much of the world's most advanced chips
3. Market cap still under $500 billion (Thus, room to 2 or 3x in the future)
4. Is not a component of the Nasdaq, the SPX, the Dow, or the Russell, and thus can impulse long even if the equities market corrects
5. Accounts for only 3.4% of the index the SOXX/SOXL/SOXS ETFs underlie, and thus can impulse long even if the semiconductor industry corrects sharply
6. Washington is banning NVIDIA and ASML from selling to China, but never mentions TSM
7. If TSM pulls out the "AI" marketing card with a new offering, watch out for fire.
In previous posts I have mentioned that the Chinese Communist Party is about to fall. While people may find that unbelievable or too good to be true, it's worth noting that when the USSR was brought down by Gorbachev and friends on Christmas Day 1992, nobody believed it was possible then either.
Those of us who are old enough to remember know you woke up one day to see it all over the news and nobody knew how it would happen.
Many entities are considering how to take control of China and its 5,000 year old culture, history, natural resources, and land when the Party falls.
The International Rules Based Order wants China for its own reasons, and the reason "Washington" has made itself so close to Taiwan isn't because Xi Jinping intends to invade Taiwan (The CCP is too weak after so many people died from Wuhan Pneumonia), but because the IRBO intends to use The Republic of China to replace the Communist Party for its own ends.
The ultimate purpose is to install genuine communism (note the CCP only still practices socialism according to its own dogma) worldwide via panopticon social credit systems and central bank digital currencies.
If you want a future you and your family can live in, you want our traditions, imparted by God, and not this junk imparted by Karl Marx and the specters that belied him.
I've mentioned before that Xi, an ostensible Chinese nationalist, has the option of weaponizing the 24-year persecution and organ harvesting genocide against the 100 million practitioners of the Falun Gong/Falun Dafa spiritual cultivation practice by the faction of his predecessor Jiang Zemin and the CCP in order to ensnare the IRBO and its banking cartel.
However, all of the world's critical pieces (Yellen, Musk, Kissinger, Dimon) visiting Beijing "for talks" combining with a recent significant strengthening of the yuan and a potential recovery of China tech stocks indicates that the IRBO is now onside with the Xi administration.
Which means that Xi may have sold out China and the future in a Faustian Pact with the IRBO in order to maintain his power, because he's too much of an idiot to throw away the CCP, return to China's 5,000 years of dynasties, and enter the future.
Either way, once there's some kind of news cycle about "Taiwan" (just go look at all the war clamoring that appeared this month in The Economist et al), TSM can moon no matter what the rest of the equities market does, and counts as an excellent long hedge during catastrophe.
I can only say that if you go long, especially significantly long, on anything right now, you really ought to be hedging volatility long while the VIX is maintaining a 13-handle.
So here's the trade.
TSM dumped some 6% on earnings under $98, which is a hell of a dip to buy.
It's a dip to buy because daily price action on the way up stopped just short of the curiously-numbered $111.11 (the Chinese are extremely numerological/superstitious), which naturally makes this figure a target for a retrace
It's only that on the hourly,
TSM doesn't show any signs of having bottomed beyond not making a lower low on the first day.
But with the biggest FOMC of the year on Wednesday, July 26 (big hike possible, next meeting not until Q3 end September 20), longing today may have been too early.
But not too early by much. Arguably only 3%. The most bullish continuation for TSM would be to maintain a "higher low" formation, protecting the wick of the June low at $94.25.
Upside targets are immediately $113+ (Masonry, roar?) and $130 (Masonry, rawr!) if bearish.
If all things Taiwan become memefied like artificial intelligence did because of what's going on in China, then there's little to stop TSM from becoming a $1 Trillion market cap company like NVIDIA et al, which would actually mean upside over $200 is in the cards through the 2024 Presidential Election.
But mankind's best laid plans are merely those of mice. This race is like bacteria and this planet is little more than a speck of dust when viewed from higher places in the enormous and boundless Cosmos we currently sit in.
What the Cosmos looks at is a race, a planet, and an individual's moral standard and spiritual realm.
Thus, the more calamity is on deck the more critical it is to take good care of your family and friends and use the time that we all have left before the world changes forever to make up for the things from the past that have been done wrong, when they should have been done well.
Take good care of yourselves.
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 760usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2023-7-21,
for a premium of approximately $20.55.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TSM - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Breakout the ceiling of falling trend channel in the medium long term.
🔹Breakout resistance at 103 in inverse head and shoulders formation.
🔹Supports at 92 in negative reaction.
🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term.
Chart Pattern;
🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢
🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴
🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵
🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢
Verify it first and believe later.
WavePoint ❤️
SOXL pullback is ready to buy longSOXL the 3X leveraged ETF of semiconductor stocks has gained 145% for the first half of the
year. As shown on a 2H chart, the price has pulled back but the overall trend of HH and HL
is intact within an ascending parallel channel. Price previously touched the lower
trendline on May 24th while it touched the upper trendline May 30th and then again
June 15th. Between May 31st and June 7th it did a Fibonacci retracement. Price is presently
reversing at the lower trendline and is above the Ichimoku cloud a sign of bullish predominance.
Price is above the mean VWAP anchored to the low of May 24th another bullish sign.
The RSI indicator showing Ichimoku features has an RSI above 50 and above the cloud
affirming a bullish bias. I believe that this is setup for a long trade with about 12-15% upside in
two weeks or less for a much smaller risk. A call option trade could also be entertained
if a setup with a good delta low spread and high volume / liquidity can be found.
SOXS Bearish Leveraged semi-conductors ETFNVDA turned down today while SOXS rose a bit. On the 30 minute chart is shown to have
have been trending down but then reversed in the after-hours trading period albeit with
the low volumes typical of after-hours. The relative volatility indicator however showed
a dramatic reversal and will be beyond the moving average within the indicator.
Overall, I see this as a day trade for June 27th. I have marked out a tight stop loss to minimize
risk. This trade which I will enter in the premarket is expectant for 8-9% profit and so
a reward to risk of 15:1
NVDA: Bearish Divergence at PCZ of Bearish Shark: Selling CallsWe have some Bearish Divergence on NVDA after reaching the PCZ of a 4 Hour Bearish Shark; if we get some serious followthrough I could see it going down to $400 or even all the way down to about $350
I will be selling multi-week calls around the strike of $425 and $435
ASUS: Dark Cloud Cover at 0.886 Retrace with Bearish DivergenceASUS has confirmed a Dark Cloud Cover with some added Bearish Divergence at the 88.6% Retrace of what could be considered a Bearish Deep Gartley. This implies that we could be in for a very big bearish reversal very soon.
NVIDIA - A Scenario Few Are Considering. Few. Few. Few.NVIDIA's price action last week was a historic event in the markets, and at a very strange time. Whenever you see such an outlier, it's time to perk up and really give a deep think to what's going on in the world at large.
For me, I had long since anticipated NVIDIA would print a new ATH, but I did not believe it would do it until the markets at large had started to moon, which I stated in a March call, which turned out to be pretty accurate.
NVDIA - Expect Sideways Until Bear Puts Expire Worthless
The fact that a megacap could take out the November of 2021 highs before the Fed started hiking is extremely indicative of what's going on, namely that the indexes and the market at large are sure to follow.
I've heard some pretty good theories that NVIDIA being able to do what it's done has a lot to do with Chinese Communist Party entities running a "boomerang" through Cayman Islands-based proxies that are shuffling liquidity through big enterprises like the US banks located in Hong Kong.
NVIDIA also reportedly relies on Taiwan-based TSMC to make its processors, and right now, Taiwan is the springboard for the western globalist interests to attempt to take control of Mainland China when the CCP collapses in the upcoming future.
The Party has recently stated that the mainland is scheduled to get hit up by 60 million new cases ***per week*** of the nouveau variant of the Omicron version of the Wuhan-originating Coronavirus Disease, and yet the Communist Party is not reporting any hard figures on case counts and death through the global faucets, and has not since Xi dropped the Zero COVID social credit scheme in January.
And on top of that is the soon-to-be 24 year long persecution of Falun Dafa by Jiang Zemin and its Shanghai faction combining with the CCP itself, a persecution that targeted 100 million people and committed the unprecedented sin of live organ harvesting.
The sin of the persecution is so enormous that once brought into the public eye, no matter who you are in this world, you'll be brought down as retribution for evil.
So there's a lot to watch out for in geopolitical tensions, and a lot at play. The biggest thing right now is that the markets are set to pump to provide people with a new distraction as they try, once again, to get rich, and quick, instead of paying attention to what is important in life.
Everyone is now convinced that NVIDIA is unshortable, and some are even looking for a mild pullback to go long on the "parabolic trend line."
Frankly speaking, there's a lot of risk in buying ATHs when you're dealing with something governed by a clever MM, and if the Q2 ER scam doesn't convince you that NVIDIA's MM is clever, "Sorry, I don't have time to explain it to you."
In making this call, I would like to say that NVIDIA going parabolic is pretty likely.
I'd also like to say that some formation like this, which we saw on Sun Microsystems in the Dotcom bubble, is also pretty likely:
If the Sun fractal is valid, then this call is invalid. How it would play out is kind of like what Boeing did in 2018-19:
Or what BTC CME Futures has already done
Meaning that shorting will remain extremely risky, but going long won't necessarily have any opportunities to meaningfully pay.
However, if the MMS are intending to conduct a turtle soup into a three drives/three Indians pattern, you do actually have the opportunity to Shortgod the top, get long at the bottom, and collect an even bigger trade.
What this would involve is that starting in June NVDIA begins to retrace, and if it were to be so, it would likely retrace with a consistency that is as good as selling volatility has been in the last 9 months.
It would refill the May gap completely, and rebalance the unbalanced March gap, which coincides with the recent market structure's range equilibrium at $250 and the week of April 24's pivot.
Many have said that the debt ceiling crisis being resolved by the Federal government often results in a stock market crash since the market has to absorb all the new TBonds that the Treasury has to issue to keep the government afloat.
If you couple that with how the market didn't go down at all during the debt ceiling crisis itself, a bear impulse appears more and more likely.
If it were to do this, NVIDIA would also never print a $1 trillion market capitalization despite being so close.
NVDIA likely would quickly bounce at this point and then the target would be one standard deviation above the May high, coming in at $540, which would also take the psychological $500 level.
Doing this will encourage and trap bears all the way down, and then slaughter bulls over $500. Doing this will slaughter the bulls that have already bought the top, and at present, the bears have literally all been killed.
Projected time frame for this to happen would be something like a September bottom and the top would come in the middle of '24 with the next U.S. Presidential Election on the horizon.
Of course, that assumes that the world remains in good enough shape to be stable in any way a year from now.
I do not have conviction that this will be the case it will play out, but I wanted to post this theory because the timing, logic, and price action all support it strongly, and it's the one scenario that nobody is considering, which also happens to generate a lot of alpha if you can get on top of it.
QCOM LongJust a decent risk/reward trade here on QCOM. Good company that will be around for a long time. I'm going to give it a shot.
SMH Update (daily chart)SMH recently peaked at 151.71 on May 30, leaving behind two gaps for potential fill in an area of low volume (yellow volume profile highlight). I am expecting a selloff into the gap areas, which also are at key fib levels.
5/30: peak = 151.71
143.89 = 76% fib (Touched today, and 5.2% off peak)
139.05 = 61.8% fib ( 8.3% off peak)
135.14 = 50% fib (10.9% off peak)
The volume profile is based on quarter to date activity, March - today, June 5. I do not expect a bounce off today's low, the 61.8 % or 50% fib areas look more realistic to me.
Dark Clouds on AMD Weekly ChartLearn more about stocks by checking out the Equity Channel Podcast on Apple and Spotify.
ASML makes the technology that makes semiconductorsASML is shown here on the one-hour chart as having a great quarter with consecutive favorable
earnings It has moved above the blue volume trading range on the profile. The accumulation
distribution indicator shows persistent and high accumulation. The volume heat map shows
recent heat volume spikes. Since ASML has products essential to chip- manufacturing and is the
leader in its field it is very well positioned for the AI boom that is underway according to all
the chatter. ASML is one of the IBD Top 50 tech stocks. If the chart is zoomed out, there is a
rising wedge which might be a bit of bearish bias. Overall, I see this as a long setup worth
buying.
Valuation Chart for AMD, Average Analyst Targets and ForecastsFor those that believe that some how AMD will magically stay at these levels, please keep in mind, the average analyst target is $103.43. On top of that, I believe the company is Anchored at lower prices based on projected earnings growth and cost of equity. This stock will revisit lower levels once again.
NXPI Semiconductors: Bullish ABCD BAMM ProjectionNXPI is trading within a weekly consolidation structure that appears to be bottoming out and preparing to make at least an 0.886 retrace, and recently it has formed a Bull Flag and it has also confirmed Hidden Bullish Divergence on the Monthly with a MACD Bullish crossing.
Out of all the big chip suppliers, NXPI is one that has yet to make any crazy moves up and is still trading within a value area, but that likely wont last long as it catches up with the rest of the sector as it is an active supplier within the sector.
New chart for AMD... Potential Levels to the Upside.Looking for potential short positions next week with September expirations.
