ASML - great earnings, might go up to 100SMAASML had good earnings on 7/20 and showing strength and volume. Some gaps to fill to the upside and the next resistance level around the 100SMA and supply zone also around $665. I like this one!
Semiconductors
NVDA up to 100SMAGap fill to the upside on NVDA, and some supply zones but I can see the stock reaching 100SMA around $200 perhaps even this summer.
my view on the (tech) marketI still don't think it is over and it can get very bloody. There are a lot of companies affected by the still not perfect again working supply chain on one side and decreasing demand because of cost of living. This will affect the whole hardware and software industrie IMO, even cloud and advertisers (will happen later) and we can alright read that some manufacturers of consumer products have full stocks (graphic card manufacturers for example which get supplied by NV). I think this can take up to one year before we see this everywhere in the tech market. This little dip does not reflect the real impact. Just my point of view, no financial advice.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) LONG!! Semiconductor industry is poised for a decade of rapid growth, with many end products relying heavily on the essential supply of semiconductor chips and products. Automotives, mobile phones, laptops, tablets and the like all require chips to work. Amongst this industry lies a semicon giant poised to rear its head: TSM.
TSM is the main supplier of chips for AAPL, with a huge backlog of stocks yet to be supplied.
Fundamentals:
- TSM is poised to produce 2NM chips by 2025.
- Chips are price inelastic, demand normally has to contend with rising costs imposed by suppliers.
- Innovation is strong in the semiconductor industry with huge capital spend on R&D for better and smaller chips
Technicals:
- MACD oversold with MACD line slopping upwards
- MACD selling momentum weakening with histogram shortening
- Prices have reached and bounced from the 200 TEMA + 61.8% fibonacci retracement levels
- Price action show huge BULLISH ENGULFING candle
TARGETS:
108.4
96.3
$AMD headed towards the top of the channel into earnings?AMD could get to the top of the channel around $98 before earnings, which is supposed to be on 8/2/2022. There're some gaps to be filled to the upside and the 50DMA could stay in the way. To me it looks interesting and worth to watch.
$SOXL Analysis, Key levels & Targets $SOXL Analysis, Key levels & Targets
This, without a doubt has been one of the most exhausting positions I have on right now…. But that is the nature of 3x leveraged instruments….
I have 310 shares, with an average of 21.61 and I am 34.72% down.
SO, for anyone that remembers this strategy from last year… the next add will be to double my position at 7.48. I don’t have the 7.48 order set yet, but I have alerts at $10 and once it hits 10 that order will be in…
From here my sell target is 35.74 —> looking for a 65.39% profit…. And of course that target will change if the 7.48 double target triggers….
Looking at stupid Willy, there is still room and I can see a real possibility of 7.48 hitting… but it doesn’t have to…. Looking at some semi companies, a lot of them are looking to test their 200MA on the weekly, but also they are hooking upward at their weekly 180EMA so I’m comfortable with my position here.
If you’re playing this one with me - now you know how insane my tolerance for volatility is….
Happy trading, y’all…
On a side note: what's your favorite Semiconductor company? I trade AMD and ON, and I track NVDA
—-
I am not your financial advisor. Watch my setups first before you jump in… My trade set ups work very well and they are for my personal reference and if you decide to trade them you do so at your own risk. I will gladly answer questions to the best of my knowledge but ultimately the risk is on you. I will update targets as needed.
GL and happy trading.
IF you need anything analyzed Technically just comment with the Ticker and I’ll do it as soon as possible…
double bottom semi-conductors Simple double bottom formation. Notice the peak (middle red line). Double bottom formations require a break north of that peak to confirm the pattern. Ghost feed is just my projection of what "could" happen, not what will happen.
Taiwanese Semiconductors: Piercing Line Visible on the WeeklyWe have a Textbook Confirmed Piercing Line Visible on the Weekly on the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company I was made aware of this a few days ago but opted to wait for the earnings report before taking action. We got a positive report so I am now taking action and my Bullish Target for TSMC will be around $100-$110 to fill the Gap Visible on the Daily Timeframe.
Alpha opportunity from modem and processor chips monopolySummary
3 years into Covid and the risk of recession starts to outplay the chip shortage story of semiconductor industry. With its unmovable monopoly status in its own specialties, we think there is alpha for Qualcomm against its semiconductor peers . Dominance in modem chips and smartphone processors, the company recently declared another victory as Samsung KRX:005930 gave up the plan of using the self-developed processor Exynos2300 and continue with the latest snapdragon SM8550 for the coming new galaxy S23. Just a few days earlier, another source has also shown that Apple NASDAQ:AAPL might not be able to develop their own 5G modem chip on time, which means until 2023 100% of apple products will continue to rely on Qualcomm for connectivity modem chips (instead of the previous forecast at 20%). Although the smartphone market is expected to go into a bear market for 1-2 years, Qualcomm business should still be able to maintain growth by expanding market share within . Another trend worth note taking is the rapid adoption of electric vehicles that has speeded up the development of smart-automobiles, which as a result dramatically increased the chips consumption for the automobile industry. Qualcomm infrastructure and experience in internet-of-things (IOT) application is going to give them a natural edge to make a monopoly again in car chips , which can be the growth story in the coming 2-3 years.
Albeit claiming monopoly in modem and high-end mobile processor chips, there are plenty of challengers from Taiwan and China especially on the lower-end chips. Among the challengers, Mediatek from Taiwan is rapidly gaining market shares by producing chips for mid-to-low tier smartphones such as Oppo, Vivo and most models of Xiaomi. The price barrier from lower-end chip makers make it hard for Qualcomm to entering the broader IOT market especially for devices that do not require high efficiency and computational power.
Trading discussion
Given the mid to long term positive outlook of Qualcomm, we can trade QCOM from both a short term rebound angle, as well as long term investing perspective . The company is currently trading at PE of 13.5, which is lower than its semiconductor peers. Low PE stocks are more defensive against valuation squeeze under the current increasing interest rate environment. Here are QCOM’s peers current PE for reference:
NASDAQ:AVGO : 23.9
NASDAQ:NVDA : 40.7
NASDAQ:AMD : 28.7
NYSE:TSM : 17.4
Technically speaking, QCOM is still under a bearish trend with the 20 days moving average running below the 50 days, and both pointing downward. The 50 days moving average is still the biggest upside resistance for QCOM with two previous breakout attempts on Apr-28 and May-31 both failed. Currently QCOM is flirting around the 50 days moving average again and we shall closely monitor if the breakout will be successful or not.
Here are some technical levels one should pay attentions to:
Downside support
118.23: Jun-23 dropped to a 52-weeks low
96.17: Jan-17 2020 pre-covid high, which was broken on Jul-30 2020
Upside resistance
136.39: Jul-8 attempt of breaking 50 days moving average
151.2: Apr-28 attempt of breaking 50 days moving average (also the current 250 days level)
Note that short term traders and long term investors can see and use the above levels quite differently. For short term traders, the upside resistance can serve as entry when breakout for trend following, and breaking downside support to exit. On the contrary, long term investors might make use of the downside support as entry to accumulate long positions at lower cost to save up more cost buffer to ride a longer cycle.
Long Monolithic (MPWR) to ~900 PTCompared with the rest of the Nasdaq, the retracement off the high earlier this year is essentially non-existent.
Moonish to 900 price, locked it in today. Potential mid-week catalyst if TSM beats its quarterly as well. Either way its moonish.
-MonoPigith
NASDAQ:MPWR
CME_MINI:ES1!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
AMEX:SOXL
NYSE:TSM
$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing WYCKOFF$TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. completed a clear as day WYCKOFF distribution TOP.
Currently it is sitting on major support. Losing this $76 area would be bearish to $60 because there isn't much support below $76 to hold it up.
$TSM is GAP city (Gaps are marked in Red), big gap below Support and many gaps above.
So far, this stock has not shown any signs of reversal, however $TSM is a giant in chip manufacturing. TSM makes $aapl chips and with ongoing shortages they are well positioned for advantage as these tech giants add autonomous driving to their business plans. Financially they are well positioned for growth in the years to come.
AMD - another massive downtrendAMD is in a heavy downtrend. It won't get there in a straight line, but I can see $74 as a super strong support and if we break through 64/65 is another strong support and a gap that could be filled. Trade with caution.
NVDA looks weakNVDA needs to close above the support around $155. If not, we might see lower prices as it's in an ugly downtrend.
semiconductors climbing out of the holeright now major indices and the nasdaq especially is banking on semis carrying a significant bounce out of the giant hole they have dug for themselves and us all. it follows that if we can hold 15.80s breaking 16.80s and continue with TRAMA staying over VWMA with both averages rising together that we should hae the go ahead to close the gap around 18.60s (strange that the decimal and integer are inverted 🤔 for either target). should ve a mega green day if we just manage to keep oscillators headed toward overbought with the price making higher lows.
summer rally or no summer rally? $ASMLwell
$ASML is something that I bought at the beginning of this week.
the 43 correction from the top encouraged me to do so.
we don't care if the correction will go lower, because we are thinking in terms of decades
Bottom in SOXL is in?Arguments pro a bullish scenario in $SOX / $SOXL:
We have reached the 78.6 % fib retracement in SOXL
According to the seasonal chart from the last ten years (see the SEASONAX screenshot at the top), in 9 of 10 cases the $SOX had made a bullish move from the 17th of May until the 8th of June
At some point, the semiconductor shortage must affect the prices ...
Contra arguments:
$DXY is rising / interest rates are going up
... anything else?
I can't see any significant arguments standing against the bullish case in $SOXL. If you have anything - please drop a comment below!
amd back into downtrendbreaking this t/l support looking to a make a move back to demand where we previously made a double bottom which we will see whether we bounce and get ready for next run or we lose demand and we make more lows
semiconductors likely have some continued downsidesoxl is pretty much plummeting if we get a significant gap down and cant set a higher low 4hr the 15 minute trend will continue downwards until the 4hr is bullishly diverged stoch, rsi a lot of people are covering, and that may lead to some squeeze, but the over all trend is down if we close gap from either direction, and it looks like it is setting a lower high 4hr i would continue to sell semis. if we close gap from either direction and it looks like the test was sucessfuly holding some higher low around the thursday close its more bullish intermediate term but id imagine this is finding a daily lower high even if it recovers some or corrects sharply only to fall again.
22.04, 21.74, 21, 20.76, 20.22 key levels right now SOXL.
the 4 hr is at critical .5 level and oversold stochfib of bounce gives us about 50% retracement if there is some recovery to tighten in range we could look back up at 22.23-22.48 setting a daily higher low if market decides to gap up friday. if vwma keeps rising and trama flattens out we will have a bounce in semis. if these indicators keep bearish divergence we are likely continuing lower in broader markets. $23 is still a critical level for this trade. $20.96 is the next level if we continue this pop down. semis started this correction only they can get it out.
AMD A case of the higher lows in effect here.
As long as the $99 region holds, we can see $110-$120 next
The next buy zone is the $100-102 region.
If $99 fails., we go back to retest the $91-$93 region.
retraced weekly to .618theres an unfinished bounce going on in semiconductor stocks short squeeze could start over the 189 area and wind up touching 224
weekly picture still hasnt changed to bull, but its possible we hold these lows and see retracement backtest if we hold 152.84
impulse wave up seems like it led to correction wave and that is just about complete
AMD:Bear market rally or turnaround?Advanced Micro Devices
Short Term - We look to Buy at 95.03 (stop at 83.57)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. The trend of higher lows is located at 90.43. This is positive for sentiment and the uptrend has potential to return. We look to buy dips. Further upside is expected.
Our profit targets will be 125.60 and 133.11
Resistance: 125.60 / 140.00 / 157.50
Support: 93.50 / 84.00 / 72.30
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Nice trade idea for SOXX! Semiconductor companies offer a lot of highly liquid securities that encourage risk-taking in all time frames, from intraday scalping to monthly market timing. The sector also supports various profit strategies, including momentum trading, basket allocations and short selling. It acts independently in many market phases, going its own way while major indices push higher or lower. This divergent behavior brings additional opportunities, even in difficult macro conditions. There are many ways to trade the semiconductor space, from identifying particular stocks to investing in the sector as a whole using exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
