NVDA Long After Nearly 20% DeclineNASDAQ:NVDA got hit hard by the huge sell-off today and because of the DeepSeek release. The Chinese GPT alternative claims to be better or at least as good as GPT using way less and way older NVDA GPUs. If true, this could create a lot of stress on the CapEx of big US tech companies because the managers will ask their employees why they needed to buy all of those expensive GPUs if they are not necessary at all. That would lead to shrinking sales at NVDA. So far, so bad.
But, we should not forget that misinformation is always a thing when talking about Chinese companies and claims. I also don't think that the result of such a claim would be that tech companies lower their CapEx and start doing less. Instead they will use this to understand how DeepSeek works and how they can be better than their Chinese counterpart using way more powerful GPUs. So, this huge sell-off could trigger a bounce from this confluence support. We perfectly hit the upward trend and a support level at $118. So, be brave and test the water.
Target Zones
$131
$140
Support Zones
$118
Semiconductors
ASML Holding Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought ASML before the previous rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ASML Holding prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 655usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2025-2-14,
for a premium of approximately $18.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
NVIDIA's Technical Outlook After the Market CrashYesterday, the market experienced a sell-off that pushed most stocks into the red. One of the key stocks in the spotlight was NVIDIA (NVDA).
From a technical perspective, NVDA had been drifting between the $130 and $150 range for the past three months without establishing a clear direction. During this time, the stock made several attempts to break above the $150 level, but all efforts failed – investors simply weren’t ready to pay such a high price.
Yesterday, the stock finally found a direction: not above $150, but instead below $130. Slightly lower price levels have now taken over.
Current Technical Outlook
At the moment, the stock is once again trapped between two levels – $130 as resistance and $100 as support. Currently, the price sits in what I’d describe as "no-man’s land," and for me, the optimal buy zone would be in the range of $90–$107.5. If the price doesn’t reach this area (pre-market is already up 5%) and instead rebounds back above $130, we can react there, in what I’d consider a safer zone. For now, it’s best to let things settle.
Opening positions at this stage might be risky; ultimately, it’s about balancing risks with your strategy. Personally, I always aim for the best possible prices or the safest scenario. For me, the lower zone between $90 and $107.5 offers the best potential value.
Second Scenario
Another approach is to wait for the price to break back above the current resistance level of $130 and secure a strong weekly close above it. This would signal that the price has moved into a potentially safer zone, suggesting that market panic may have ended well for NVDA holders. This scenario also allows us to take advantage of further potential growth.
Sector Stocks of Interest
Here are a few stocks from this sector that caught my attention and might also be of interest to you:
Broadcom (AVGO)
ASML Holding (ASML)
Marvell Technology (MRVL)
Strongest levels below the current price.
All the best,
Vaido
ON Semi is fundamentally undervalued and ready for a reversalTechnical View
NASDAQ:ON ON bounce off from a bigger support area from 2022 at around $53 building an ascending triangle. We have a gap above our current price (which can function as a magnet for the stock price). A smaller resistance at $60 might be our first target and the bigger resistance at $77 could be our final target resulting in 36% ROI. The trade would be invalidated below $50. Since this is a bigger swing trade, I would not put my SL to close to the current stock price. If you’re interested why this is a mid- to long-term swing trade read the fundamental information below.
Support Zones
$50-53
Target Zones
$60
$77
Fundamental View
ON Semiconductor concluded the third quarter of 2024 with revenue amounting to $1,762 million, reflecting a 2% increase from the second quarter but a -19.2% year-over-year decline. Nevertheless, the revenue for the quarter exceeded the consensus estimate by 0.70%. The most significant revenue losses were observed in the industrial end-market, with figures reaching $439.90 million compared to the average estimate of $464.97 million, marking a -28.6% decrease.
The gross margin experienced a 2% improvement, now constituting 45.4% of total revenue. Looking ahead, the acquisition of GlobalFoundries’ New York plant is anticipated to enhance the company's chip production capabilities. This facility is expected to maintain consistent production costs while simultaneously increasing production efficiency, in anticipation of a future rise in demand.
The stock has decreased by 11.26% on a year-to-date basis, with a reported trailing twelve months (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) of $4.03. Management has reported having over $1 billion in free cash flow and plans, according to Barron’s, to utilize half of each quarter’s cash flow to repurchase shares under onsemi’s Share Repurchase Program. The reduction in investments will contribute to increasing free cash flow margins, thereby reinforcing OnSemi’s objective of returning 50% of free cash flow to investors. This, combined with a projected slight improvement in sales growth and profitability, is expected to elevate EPS to $7.11 by 2027.
Currently, the company's valuation appears reasonable, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.49, which is lower than 90% of the time over the past five years and significantly beneath the S&P 500 P/E ratio as well as the industry median P/E of 25.4. Based on analysts' projections for EPS and maintaining a steady P/E ratio, the company is anticipated to reach a price of $95.91 within the next two years. While this scenario may seem overly optimistic, it is evident that the market is currently undervaluing the stock, especially when compared to its main competitors, such as Texas Instruments and Analog Devices.
Since EV is a superior trend I don’t think Trumps political decision will have an impact. In addition, “Vice President” Musk has a, let’s say, not so little interest in selling more EVs.
Amd - It Comes Down To This Support!Amd ( NASDAQ:AMD ) is retesting massive support:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For more than three years, we have been seeing a quite volatile consolidation phase on Amd. Looking at recent price history though, Amd just came back to retest a massive horizontal support level and if we see bulls taking over, a rally of +100% is very possible.
Levels to watch: $120, $240
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Applied Materials Inc. Technical and Fundamental Aspects.Applied Materials, Inc. is an American corporation that supplies equipment, services and software for the manufacture of semiconductor (integrated circuit) chips for electronics, flat panel displays for computers, smartphones, televisions, and solar products.
The company also supplies equipment to produce coatings for flexible electronics, packaging and other applications.
U.S. chip stocks rise on Thursday, January 16th, after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co NYSE:TSM , the world's largest contract chipmaker, reported record quarterly profit today.
In technical terms, Applied Materials stock was not among hyped and scorching-hot Trump-a-Rally assets in November, 2024.
However the most important thing is that in December, 2024 AMAT stocks has been supported by 100-week SMA and now is forming breakthrough of descending top/ flat bottom technical figure, trying to print the biggest over past twelve months 4-weeks upside swing.
In fundamental terms, Applied Materials NASDAQ:AMAT is presently being traded at a Forward P/E ratio of 22.12. This signifies a discount in comparison to the average Forward P/E of more than 25 for Semiconductors industry peers.
Another Semiconductors industry peers are being trading as follow - a Forward P/E ratio for Nvidia Corp NASDAQ:NVDA is presently 53.30; for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing NYSE:TSM is 34.92; for Broadcom Inc NASDAQ:AVGO is 191.80; for Asml Holding NV NASDAQ:ASML is 40.08; and for Advanced Micro Devices Inc NASDAQ:AMD is 106.63.
The main technical graph for Applied Materials Inc. NASDAQ:AMAT indicates on a forming breakthrough of descending top/ flat bottom technical figure.
The nearest upside target is considered by our team as a 6-month highs near $ 215 a share, and the far target is considered as a Double Top technical figure around $ 250 a share, that can be achieved over next 6 months.
$NVDA Buy now when everyone is in fear! Easy Rally to $165 !!Based on recent analyses and expert forecasts, NVIDIA's stock price (NVDA) is anticipated to perform robustly in the first quarter of 2025. Analysts have set a target price around $170 if the stock can convincingly surpass the $145 mark.
Reason to BUY NASDAQ:NVDA
Strong Demand for AI: NVIDIA's GPUs play a critical role in training complex AI models. The rising demand for AI technologies, particularly from major tech companies, is boosting the need for NVIDIA's specialized chips.
Data Center Growth: NVIDIA's data center revenue has been experiencing significant growth. This segment now accounts for a substantial portion of their total revenue, and ongoing investments in data centers by cloud service providers are expected to further drive demand.
New Product Launches: NVIDIA is preparing to increase shipments of its new H200 GPU, which boasts greater efficiency and power compared to its predecessor. This could attract more customers and boost sales.
Positive Market Sentiment: Analysts maintain a bullish outlook on NVIDIA's stock, with some predicting further price increases due to sustained demand and strong financial performance.
AI Monetization: Companies such as Microsoft and Meta are seeing increased monetization from AI applications, potentially leading to higher spending on NVIDIA's products.
BUY NOW NASDAQ:NVDA !!
Fear & Greed Index: 39 (FEAR)
Green Days: 13/30 (43%)
RSI as of 01/13/2025
200-Day SMA: $119.35
50-day SMA: $139.86
Volatility: 3.12%
I also anticipate a dramatic increase due to the following events:
CPI 01/15/2025
Trump Administration 01/20/2025
FOMC Meeting: 01/29/2025
Broadcom - This Chart Tells Us Everything!Broadcom ( NASDAQ:AVGO ) is retesting massive resistance:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For roughly a decade, Broadcom has been trading in a quite obvious rising channel pattern, perfectly rejecting the lower support trendline back in the end of 2022. After the recent rally of more than +200%, it is quite likely that we will now see a substantial move lower from here.
Levels to watch: $250, $150
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NVTS TRADE UPDATE - Massive upside potential...STILL!NASDAQ:NVTS UPDATE 💾
The H5 Trade is still intact...for now. We are at an inflection point in the markets and although I believe we get a big bounce higher soon nothing is concrete.
If we do get a bounce and what I believe will be a blow off top in this bull market then this name base on the setup will do very well to start blasting through these profit targets.
- H5 indicator is green
- At volume shelf
- Higher low
- Already successfully retested falling wedge breakout area.
- Broke out of downtrend
-Volume gap to fill
-WCB is formed and thriving
When companies break out and successfully retest it is common for them to consolidate above the breakout area to create new support before continuing higher
Don't make buy/ sell decisions based solely off price action, have a strategy and follow it so you don't get burned up in the massive swings...especially on volatile stocks. This name has given me 70% gains off the initial breakout and after we loaded back up off the retest.
Not exiting this name unless my strategy indicates a correction or crash in the markets is upon us or my strategy tells me to exit this name (Red H5 Indicator/ Break of support on WCB).
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Nvidia - Shocking Everybody Again In 2025!Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) will rally another +40% in 2025:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
For most people, it seems absolutely counterintuitive to witness another parabolic blow off rally on Nvidia and that's exactly why we will see such moves during 2025. Market structure just supports this outlook since Nvidia is still overall bullish and has some room towards the upside.
Levels to watch: $200
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
AMD: Ready to Break Out – Confluence Supports and Bullish PatterI’ve already written a weekly analysis on NASDAQ:AMD , which you should read before this one, as it explains the broader technical and fundamental support in the bigger picture.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, we can see the more granular movement of the stock over the last few months. The fact that we held the trendline, which has been in place since 2023, is a good sign that overarching algorithms still have an interest in the stock. The trendline also corresponds to a so-called "confluence support," where multiple support levels overlap.
1. Trendline
Trendlines alone are not reliable price action structures, as they are often broken during consolidations without affecting the overall trend. However, since this trendline is older, has been tested multiple times, and now coincides with other support levels, it serves as one of several building blocks.
2. Fibonacci Retracement
We hit the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (horizontal yellow line) exactly and bounced upward from there. The 61.8% Fib is always a good reversal point during pronounced consolidations, as we’ve seen here. AMD has been consolidating since March 2024, over nine months now.
3. Horizontal Support
In addition to the Fibonacci retracement, the price range between $117 and $121 was already a support area. This zone has been a support and resistance level since September 2021 and has consistently prompted strong price reactions.
4. Descending Wedge
The current leg down is forming a descending wedge, which breaks upward in more than two-thirds of cases, making it a bullish pattern. The target for a breakout is typically the highest point of the wedge, which currently means a target around $170. However, a conservative trader always plans more cautiously, so we’ve combined our target with the last gap close.
5. Gaps
While not a proper support level, the still-open daily gaps at $137 and $158 act as magnets for higher prices. These gaps lie along the path upward and make good spots to place take-profit levels.
Fundamental Reasons
AMD's Position: With the launch of the MI300 series, AMD has taken a significant step toward competing with NVIDIA in the AI GPU market. These chips are optimized for high-performance computing and generative AI.
Potential: In Q3 2024, AMD generated $1.5 billion in revenue from the data center segment, a 42% year-over-year growth. This growth is expected to accelerate further in 2025 due to AI applications.
Market share: AMD has consistently gained market share from Intel in the CPU market, especially in the server segment. According to Mercury Research, AMD’s server CPU market share rose from 23.4% in Q3 2023 to 26.5% in Q3 2024.
Forecast : With the planned launch of Zen 5 processors in H2 2025, AMD is expected to gain even more market share, driven by improved performance and energy efficiency.
EV Market: Additionally, the electric vehicle market, after weaker years in 2023 and 2024, is expected to regain momentum. This will significantly impact the semiconductor market as a whole.
AMD to $200 (61%) – Strong Support ends ConsolidationNASDAQ:AMD weekly charts looks very good. The trendline from March 2023 is intact and we also touched the 61.8 fibonacci from the complete move (starting in October 2023). The descending wedge could be broken to the upside today, which would be a bullish sign for a stronger move towards $200. All in all, many semiconductor stocks are currently on supports or are fundamentally more attractive than they were months ago.
Fundamentally NVIDIA still dominates the AI datacenter market with a market share of over 90%. But Advanced Micro Devices is improving its hardware and software offerings. The recently released MI325X and the upcoming MI350 series could give AMD more market share with faster release cycles. First signs show significant customer interest. In addition, AMD has a more stable revenue stream from other products like CPUs and non-AI datacenters. Given the high prices of NVIDIAs products the market itself should have a deeper interest in more competition.
Target Zones
$135
$160
$200
Support Zones
$117-$120
NVDA – Buy the Dip for a Short BounceOur last NASDAQ:NVDA trade went very well. Within a few weeks we made more than 15% re-testing the ATH and generating a new one. Directly after hitting the ATH we saw a sell on good news event during the CES and the presentation of the “Home AI PC”. The perfect time to buy was yesterday minutes before markets closed. The price formed a falling wedge with a RSI divergence. Nevertheless, buying today could still give results. Target is the ATH again and invalidation point is a close below our $140 support.
Target Zones
$154
Support Zones
$140
AMD for STRONG buyWhy Buy AMD Stock?
Market Leadership in Semiconductor Industry
AMD is a globally recognized leader in the semiconductor industry, producing high-performance CPUs, GPUs, and adaptive computing technologies. Its innovative products cater to a wide range of markets, including gaming, data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), and embedded systems.
Strong Financial Performance
AMD has consistently demonstrated robust financial growth, driven by strong product demand, strategic acquisitions, and efficient cost management. Its competitive product lineup continues to drive revenue growth and profitability.
Growing Market Opportunities
The increasing adoption of AI, machine learning, cloud computing, and 5G technology creates a substantial growth opportunity for AMD's advanced processors and GPUs. The company is well-positioned to capture market share in these rapidly growing sectors.
Innovation and Product Pipeline
AMD’s commitment to innovation is evident in its cutting-edge product releases, such as the Ryzen series CPUs, Radeon GPUs, and EPYC processors. These products provide industry-leading performance and efficiency, making them highly sought-after in the technology market.
Strategic Partnerships and Acquisitions
AMD’s acquisition of Xilinx and strategic partnerships with industry leaders like Microsoft, Sony, and Amazon strengthen its product portfolio and expand its reach into new markets like
JUST BUY AND HOLD.
$NVTS Ready to Soar! 200% UPSIDECHARTURDAY - NASDAQ:NVTS
ALL SYSTEMS GO!
-H5 Indicator is GREEN
-Broke out and successfully retested falling wedge and downtrend
-Volume shelf with GAP
-Weekly Hammer candle
-Williams CB thriving
A break over recent highs is VERY BULLISH!
🎯$6🎯$7.62 🎯$11
Not financial advice