Copper Outlook /long-term Technical Analysis
We have broken the long-term resistance trend that had been in place for almost 10 years.
RSI is very overbought, but this market has proven overbought can stay overbought for a long period.
In the chart there is 3 potential targets for Copper in the long-term picture.
There are several place to take profits and/or add on pullbacks. (These are the orange segment lines)
Fundamental Analysis
Industrial metals have been rallying strong; and are likely to continue with expected infrastructure investment for 2021 and further.
Copper is also used in Semiconductors, which is the basis of all technology hardware.
Steel is behaving in a very similar fashion, adding to the idea of industrial metals outperforming precious metals.
Semiconductors
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. A Must Have for 2021.TSM has continued its bullish uptrend since March following the rest of the stocks in its sector. In the past month, it has swerved past the $90 resistance that has been holding it down and continued an even steeper uptrend. The uptrend channel looks strong and has only shown weakness back in July. Surrounding the stimulus news and the fact that it has been a major player in helping Apple produce its own chips is what is moving this stock upwards.
TSM has room for upside in my opinion but taking a long position right now might not be sustainable. The Fibonacci retracements show the closest support level is between $89-$93.
Given the current market conditions along with vaccine news and stimulus, I would wait and see if the current uptrend holds.
A drop to $89-$93 is what I am looking forward to in order to take a long position and set a stop loss limit at $80.
My PT for 2021 is $130.
AMD - option trade of the week by Argusbuy-to-open calls strike at 100 expired Jan 15,2021.
quote from Argus: "Over the past month, the AMD shares have rallied back to the top of the four-month price range near $94. A strong breakout above the top of the range could lead to a significant rally well above $100 based on the size of the sideways consolidation."
Skyworks Fights Back Above the 50-day SMASemiconductors have remained one of the strongest corners of the market. Now Skyworks Solutions could be ready to join the rally.
The iPhone supplier has struggled with insider selling despite beating estimates on November 2. But its chart is looking more bullish lately.
The first signal was MACD turning positive back on November 30. That was the same day Morgan Stanley and Loop Capital issued bullish notes on iPhone 12 demand. SWKS gets about half its business from Apple.
Next, SWKS is just now climbing above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) after testing it for three sessions.
Finally, the chart resembles a cup and handle. September’s low is the cup and November is the handle. That’s a classic continuation pattern investors seek in a growth stock like SWKS. After nearly six months of going almost nowhere, it could be a sign of momentum coming back.
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MU ShortAfter a golden cross with the 50 and 200 SMA NASDAQ:MU has pushed up into overbought conditions on the RSI leaving quite a mess as it stretches. Now at all time highs, I believe that it is a good time for a short. With lots of buying pressure in the last couple of days some consolidation is expected. Semi-conductors have been a strong play during 2020, however with a strong bid for Energy yesterday, I believe it is time for past due rotation for the continuation of the unprecedented bull market that has been carried heavily by tech centric stocks. The MAC-D is attempting to double extend to the upside for the first time since September and March lows, and with the overbought conditions it is safe to say that this move will likely be quickly rejected. My first target for MU is support at 61.68 and my second target is the gap up from 58.12 to 59.57. Note that the former highs are at 64.66 and this might serve as a testy area for MU.
Nvidia Had a Bullish Outside CandleBig tech stocks have been snoozing since their frenzied peak in early September. But yesterday, one of the biggest names showed signs of waking up.
Nvidia traded down to $518.89, under Friday’s low. It also traded up to $536.50, slightly above Friday’s high. That’s a bullish outside day, a potential sign of buyers getting active.
The low was also noteworthy because it occurred along a trendline running along NVDA’s lows since early September.
Stochastics were also oversold near the bottom of the range but are now climbing.
Third, current prices are right on top of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). Trending stocks have a tendency to move away from their moving averages when the trend resumes.
NVDA’s fundamentals have also been strong, with earnings and revenue beating on November 18. It drifted along with other big tech stocks, but the Nasdaq-100 has recently tried to break out. Will the bulls look to NVDA next?
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AMD over 88.72Shown here on the weekly view, it made a higher weekly high confirming a weekly breakout. Lots of eyes on this one and large order flow, 6th most bullish by volume on CheddarFlow with 195 orders totaling $25.2m. But as its been faking us out recently, a break over October's high to confirm a monthly breakout is a more conservative entry. Most institutional orders are for 12/18 strikes 85-90, or 12/15/21 strikes 95 and 100.
TSM Long from Q2 2021. TP 120Monthly
Strong uptrend.
I think for now its too much overheated.
Correction is needed.
Weekly
Wave 5th is finished.
No reasons to open long Now.
Better from end of correction. I think from Q2 2021 - will be good entry.
Daily
I expect Double TOP - people will try to get 100, but failed again.
Also weak Earning in Q1 2021 = decline. ABC correction.
Open LONG in Feb- March. from 82
SL 75
TP 120
RR 6
Teradyne - Cup & Handle + Measured MoveTeradyne made a cup & handle, which continues to see strength.
Cup & Handle -- Measured Move
Making a measured move from the floor of the cup, to the resistance which was all time highs, we get a 18 points (12% aprox.) potential move.
Trade
Would follow the 5sma (green line) to take profits for 50% of my position, the other 50% if it takes the Resistance 1 level.
There are also other semiconductors making ATH, which is adding to the strength in the industry overall.
My fans have asked and I am responding: semiconductors at limitSomeone asked me about semi-conductors recently because they had (apparently) gone exponential. Well, not quite. I think in response to the election news the past few sessions had been good but going back you can see that its been trading in a fairly predictable range. I can't comfortably call this exponential until it breaks above the overhead resistance and we all know what needs (*ahem) for that to happen (and given the recounts necessary in Georgia and Wisconsin, although Biden will be declared victor the markets will not like the lack of finality and the inevitable road blocks that will be put up by Trump). The other interesting thing is that SOXL is in a very wide long ascending triangle which more often than not tends to break down. More adventurous people could put a small short play into place.
Is Micron Finally Ready to Move?On Tuesday, we cited the pullback in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. Today, we’re looking at a member stock that’s been dead in the water all year: Micron Technologies.
Worries about the Covid recession have dragged on the memory-chip maker, despite strong results. Analysts at Deutsche Bank and Citi also think pricing will improve over the winter.
MU’s chart has some potential positives for the bulls. First is the falling trendline between the February and July highs. It broke that line three weeks ago and is now revisiting it as support. (Similar to the iShares Trust China Large-Cap ETF pattern on Monday.)
Second, MU’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) just rose above its 200-day SMA: a “golden cross.”
There are also potential fundamental tailwinds given the strong industrial data this week from the U.S. and China, plus the upcoming iPhone 12 ramp. Traders may want to keep an eye on MU for a potential breakout.
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SOXX 5smaNotice how the 5sma has been resistance for the SOXX for the past 12 trading days (red oval).
This tells us that short-term, SOXX has to break the 5sma to get out of its current down-trend.
The purple line is the 50sma, which is now also resistance, as we crossed below it, and is now touching the 5sma.
$AOSL Consolidation and Handle Formation Indicates eventual LONGAOSL is consolidating and has been for the better part of the past two-weeks.
The formation of a handle to a cup dip is certainly present: For better or worse. The S&P is struggling throughout Monday's trading session, but AOSL still has all the makings of a MEGA-LONG.
17+ should be realized in due time, but the market has to begin to show better strength for that to occur.
Note: This is not advice; just an idea regarding the harmonics of AOSL and some conjectures regarding a take-profit point. Always do your own research.
-BDR
Can AMD Fill Gap and Reclaim Previous High? There is a major gap in AMD's chart and now we wait to see if it CONTINUES To fill it. $AMD is up 0.62% today and the trace through this correction could last all week.
Just a quick touch here, with some chart work to show the reason for thinking of potential exit points to claim some profit. The volatility was high last top-out with a bit of a short squeeze that was later repeated... AMD is above average cost but has PLENTY of room to run, as shown by the higher top out (a previous high). Overall, this has all the makings of a very nice LONG. Although it would represent an annual high, AMD has its earnings report tomorrow. That could either accelerate its rise or stall it out: STAY TUNED ya dig.
HAPPY TRADING!
-BDR
Marvell Technologies Is Pulling BackMarvell Technologies has been one of the better-performing chip stocks this year. It’s up 52 percent in 2020, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has gained just 28 percent.
MRVL broke out in May, well before most others. It spent the next four months in a long consolidation pattern, grinding higher but not really breaking out. That is, until ripping through a falling trend line on September 28. The stock proceeded to run almost 20 percent before losing momentum. It’s now pulling back and may provide an entry in the next week or so.
The key area to watch could be roughly $38.70 - $39. That’s important because it’s roughly the location of the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
It was also an intraday high several times September 18-23. MRVL then bounced near that level on September 30, immediately after breaking out. Old resistance became new support. Here's the hourly:
Beneath that, $37 could be important. That was the high in early June and a low as late as September 24.
Fundamentally, the story focuses on 5G networking and cloud computing. MRVL’s next set of numbers are due in early December.
Again, short-term momentum looks bearish. But now could be the time to start setting alerts and planning.
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