Big Gains On Intel 2021? Hard To Say!With the chatter over US supporting semi-conductor manufacturers, looks like Intel could be ready for another massive generational leap.
Semiconductors
Semiconductors ~ ascending triangle Technical Analysis
We have formed an ascending triangle (purple lines). If we make a measured move from the breakout, it takes us up to $275 target approximately.
21ema has been working very well as a trend following system.
OBV has been supportive of the trend.
Fundamental Analysis / News
1. Ongoing reports talking about demand for semiconductors outpacing supply, particularly from the auto makers.
2. A Reuters report that indicates CEOs of leading U.S. companies are urging the Biden administration to provide incentives to build more factories in the U.S. in order to win back market share and help mitigate risks to national security.
MRVL ER run up MRVL Technology is a semi conductor company that has been lagging behind this week with other semis like NVDA having nice rallies. Great company with continued growth in the 5g and cloud computing segment. Looking at this for a potential swing with ER approaching early March. In a nice uptrend since the pandemic hit and currently in a 2-3 week downtrend channel to complete a nice bull flag. Watching for a breakout of the downtrend with a significant increase in volume for a confirmed reversal. Looking for a break and hold above 51.60 for an overall move up to retest ATH at 55.80. Over that I'm looking at a push to my wave 5 target at 62.
Ways to Play this
1. Buy Shares and hold long term - low risk low reward
2. Load on the dip before the rip (load zone: 48-51), scale in with option contracts w/ couple month out expiration
3. Wait for the breakout (confirmed reversal) of 51.60 to load up couple month out contracts
Options to consider
55C 3/19 1.84 (low risk: medium reward)
50C 2/19 1.66 (medium risk: high reward)
51C 2/19 1.15 (medium risk: high reward)
55C 2/19 .23 (Lotto)
Buy setupContinuation Trade
Reward/Risk: 2/1
Entry: 141.43 or at a lower price
Stop: 127.00
Target: 170.00
$THBR Wedge Filling Nicely. Look To Retest $12.75 area.$THBR Wedge Filling Nicely. Look To Retest $12.75 area. Any Positive Catalyst's Could Help Break Through To Our Next Leg.
Cirrus Logic Pulls Back to Key LevelsCirrus Logic began 2021 with a breakout to new highs. Now it’s pulled back to some potentially interesting levels.
First, Thursday’s close around $86 is near the old peak in January 2020. Will old resistance become new support?
Second, CRUS has returned to its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since it started running in late September.
Third, stochastics are deeply oversold.
CRUS relies heavily on Apple iPhones as an end market. It initially tried to rally on January 28 after AAPL’s blowout results, and was swamped by bearish short-term momentum. Strong quarterly results two sessions later were also ignored.
The iPhone cycle and semiconductors in general have been very strong. CRUS may need some time to stabilize, but trend followers will be watching to see if it holds this zone and the 50-day SMA.
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Bullish On Semi's? Go Long $SIMO.I'm bullish on semi-conductor stocks. Especially small & mid-cap names. Check out Silicon Motion Technology. I like the set up here.
P/E = 17.73
EPS Growth = 483%
Nice entry point IMO.
New to charting. Let me know what you think?
Thanks.
TSM over 127.58After a nice climb TSM has pulled back and looks to be breaking from this descending channel. Entry over recent high shown here will confirm a breakout.
Update on AMD. Load the boat!Load up, you won't see this stock below $90 often in the future.
The MACD is signaling buy. When the red signal line rises above the MACD line, it's a buy signal.
The RSI is signaling buy. As highlighted, an RSI around 30 signals it is not overbought.
It held the previous support level of 87.52. This is a tremendous sign.
I expect it to carry on in the channel I have created with trend lines. It won't be a straight line up, but it is going up.
Semiconductor sector (SOXX) seem ready to turn its trendSemiconductor sector seems ready for a trend change. Since the March low, the sector has ran up more than triple digit percentage. As much as the sector is damaged less than retail and hospitality, it is very cyclical sector and it does get affected by business cycle. Semi is the canary in a coal mine of the tech sector (XLK), so when this turns, it will be a headwind for the entire tech sector as a whole. When the tech breaks, the market breaks for its heavy weight on the indexes.
Recently broke the minor yellow up trend line and reversing right at the long term trend line since last spring.
Initial target is the bottom of the trading range. $404ish depending on when it hits it.
2nd target is the horizontal support right below the channel. $384.46
As how bullish the overall sentiment is in the market recently, once it turns, it will be pretty quick move downward. Potential long term targets are listed but SOXX will not going to fall double digit without if XLK and indexes are resilient.
Only the time will tell but it will be prudent and be cautious. Scaling down on aggressiveness won't be a bad idea and have some hedges.
Have a good trade everyone,
T.
AMD has underperformed peers but not for much longerAMD seems to be the contrarian play in the semiconductor field right now so I'm going to go ahead and suggest starting a position at these levels around $90 a share. It has been outperformed by its peers to a great degree recently for no apparent reason. I assume profit-taking attributed to taking it down from nearly $100 a share.
Buy under $93.
Sell half at $110.
It will retest the $100 level, breakthrough, and hit resistance at about the $110 level from profit takers. Slight chance it has more legs than that but I'd say $110 is a fair price target for this stock.
The SMH is up 11% in the last month and a half and AMD is down nearly a percent. Easy 10% return on this trade if not 20% if it hits my estimated price target.
$NVDA - Bull Setup PrebreakoutApproaching upper band of channel once more. May break this time, may not - here's my targets if it does.
Target 1 - $545
Target 2 - $552
Target 3 - $563
Invalidates bull bias under $528.50
Like & follow if you want more of these :)
$INTC obvious bull trap???I have my doubts on long $INTC given the 2020 performances, but with the recent leadership change, I'm a bit more optimistic. Chart showing really interesting trend. I guess i'll cover my short call tomorrow morning...
A new SPAC, great potential, risk vs rewardAll SPAC IPO's have seen great gains before they even merge. This one is a company that was founded in 2004 in silicon valley. It supplies field programmable gate arrays, the electronic components used to build reconfigurable digital circuits for use in 5G equipments and cloud computing. Among its competitors are Intel Corp. and Xilinx Inc.
It is a great play and the consolidation is almost over as you can see the declining volume. You may enter with a small position and keep an eye on it. There is no guarantee will touch support but if it does you can increase your position there. The upside if patient will pay off.
I am not a financial adviser and this is not an advise to buy.
Disclosure: The writer has a position open in the company.
Trouble Ahead for AMD?As we can see, an ascending wedge pattern has clearly formed on the AMD 1 YR chart. This means we could be in for some bearish movement going forward.
After having traded in a tight range between $89-$99 for over a month now and constantly getting rejected at the $99 level, it is hard to say we might breakout over $100 after the next earnings report which is to be released on the 26th of this month.
Fundamentally, the company could give out some great news and a stellar earnings report, but I would ask for you to trade this cautiously considering the technical analysis shows otherwise.
That being said, if you are bullish;
BTO Feb 5th $97 Call ($6.13) (Do not hold into earnings, I say this with experience, unless you want to gamble)
But if you're bearish;
BTO Feb 5th $90 Put ($3.7)
Good luck trading!
INTC looks readyINTC could be setting up for a big move.
The dip below the 50 mark was eaten up fast. Usually INTC is not a fast mover, also closed above the 200 ema today.
Watching for a break and hold of 52.76 to go long.
PT1 54.67
PT2 56.23
PT3 58.70
PT4 gap fill over 61
ATOM Sign Joint Development AgreementAtomera and Market Leading Semiconductor Company Sign Joint Development Agreement for Use of MST in Future Devices.
entered into JDA with a leading semiconductor provider for integration of Atomera's Mears Silicon Technology (MST) into their silicon fabrication process.
Atomera's MST is a patented, quantum-engineered material that enhances transistors to deliver significantly better performance in today's electronics.
New collaboration will leverage Atomera's transistor enhancement technology to develop improvements across the manufacturer's production lines
finance.yahoo.com
SiTime makes the digital world go roundIf you have ever done an electronics project, you probably either built your own large timing circuit or utilized a quartz-based crystal oscillator in a square silver package with four legs. An oscillator is used in some form in most every electronic device you use.
Think of the computer in front of you. It likely has a dozen or more oscillators integrated into the core processor, memory, wireless radio, LCD screen, trackpad or mouse, and all the components that coordinate between these parts. Each needs an accurate way to generate frequencies and measure time.
Beyond the computer are devices as simple as a stylus for a tablet computer, the tiny wireless earbuds for music, a smart watch and programmable lightbulbs. And there are devices as complicated as new all-electric autonomous-driving cars, airplanes, satellites and rockets. All of these devices are requiring smaller and smaller components.
And that's the whole game with the semiconductor industry. Smaller. Faster. Cheaper. And with timing solutions it's also about More Accurate. Timing solutions are tricky, because they have always been very sensitive to vibration, temperature, and other jitters that cause inaccuracy. Quartz has been able to handle most of these applications up to a point, but its running into several limitations:
1) Quartz is sensitive to extreme temperature and vibration
2) It requires a ceramic container that increases its size
3) They are built for a specific purpose and lack programmability for new uses
MEMS Timing Solutions
That's where MEMS timing solutions come into play. MEMS stands for MicroElectroMechanical System. A MEMS solution is anything that combines mechanical moving parts with electronic signals in a very small device. MEMS circuits that you see every day include displays, tiny microphones (in your phone), accelerometers.
MEMS timing solutions have been in research and development since the 1960s, but the first commercialized product was sold by SiTime in 2006. Since then, SiTime has been 'chip'ping away at quartz oscillator solutions to gain market share. But recently, there has been increasing demand for MEMS solutions. Here's just a few:
1) Smaller and smaller devices
2) Devices used at extreme temperatures
3) Industrial devices that endure high vibration
4) High frequency radios required for 5G
5) Low latency for things like natural stylus writing
SiTime
1) First Commercialized MEMS Oscillator in 2006
2) Competitive strengths in Performance, Size, Low Power, Programmable, Quality/Reliability, Rapid TTM
3) Market Cap: $1.9 billion
4) Shares in Float: 5.4m (of 16.9m)
5) 143 Employees at end of 2019
6) 59 patents for MEMS manufacturing and design
7) EPS last three quarters: -0.14, -0.14, +0.23
8) YoY Sales last three quarters: 47%, 36%, 29%
Technical
1) Up 590% since IPO in November, 2019
2) 5.5% down from all-time high on December 17
3) Deep cup and handle formation from early November
ATR Buy Point
Buy Point: 114.56 (last daily high + 10)
Stop Loss: 97.58 (14.82% based on 10d ATR x2.7)
Position Size: R6.75
