PHLX SOX Index: Long term reversalWith heavyweight Intel getting hammered today, the outlook of the broader semiconductor index obviously gets dragged along. The already unconvincing outlook of the past months has taken a turn for the worst by breaking below cloud support at 1299. The minor internal trend line at 1272 is now scrutinized but a move lower seems a mere formality.
Focus is on the reasonable support zone at 1211 at first. Below that a new primary down trend takes hold towards 1122 (daily projection) and probably a lot lower on a 6+ month horizon. After all, the current breakout means the start of a multi-month corrective phase with very substantial down side risks.
Avoid any longs in the sector. New short-entries are justifiable as long as prices hold below ~1345 over the next weeks.
Near term trend: negative
Long term trend: neutral
Outlook: long-term reversal expected
Strategy: avoid/exit-long or trading short-entry
Support: 1272 / 1211 / 1122*
Resistance: 1345 / 1360+
Outlook cancelled/neutralized above 1345
Semiconductors
ON Semiconductor Corp LONGLong from $22.70
Market Cap - $10.41B
ROE - 21.88%
Projected Sales Growth - 2.38%
- On has seen a strength in demand across most end markets as shown in its bookings trend over the last four quarters. Distributor inventories increased in the last quarters and re-sales remain strong.
- Their automotive segment is a strong growth driver – share gains, unit growth, attractive product offerings, contributes to revenues.
- They are very active in M&A. the companies acquisitions of AMI semiconductor, CMOS image sensor business unit, Analog Devices power PC controller business, CMD, Catalyst, SANYO Semiconductor and Sound Design gave it a new scope of technical capabilities. Some products and higher margin products expose to new markets and greater product range. The acquisition of Fairchild’s semiconductor international makes it the leader in the power semiconductor industry helping them diversify across a huge range of markets with a main focus on smart phones, automotive and industrial end markets. ON has successfully managed to integrate big acquisitions like AMI semiconductors in the past so it shouldn’t have any problems with the integration of Fairchild. Management expects the Fairchild acquisition to be an immediate boost to non GAAP earnings and free cash flow. Annual cost savings of at least $150m are expected within 18 months.
- ON has a very well diversified business and the company looks to generate a significant percentage of revenues from each sector it is involved in. With this diversification it smooths over the impact of seasonality resulting in balanced growth throughout the year.
- Main risks would be the 12 month P/E ratio of 21.09 vs industry average of 16.63 and its significant debt burden
NeroTree Capital rates ON Semiconductor Corp as a BUY with a price target of $30 in the next 52w.
SOXL: Direxion Semiconductor Bull 3X Leverage ETF Overview This ETF is one of my favourites, with a very consistent return
Year to Date* 26.14%
1 Year 171.57%
3 Years 85.12%
5 Years 85.46%
10 Years --
Since Inception 44.61%
Has shown a positive return every quarter since Q315
Reuters Lipper Fund Research:
Total Return: 5
Consistent Return 5
Tax Expense 4
BETA= 4.16
Holdings: (Top ten. Yes, there is AMD)
Dreyfus Government Cash Management (Institutional)
Texas Instruments Inc ORD TXN
Intel Corp ORD INTC
Qualcomm Inc ORD QCOM
NVIDIA Corp ORD NVDA
Broadcom Ltd ORD AVGO
Analog Devices Inc ORD ADI
Microchip Technology Inc ORD MCHP
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd DR TSM
Micron Technology Inc ORD MU
Asset Allocation
Equities 65.44%
Cash 10.61%
Fixed Income 12.15%
Other 11.80%
Micron's Strong RallyMicron updated guidance for Q2 and now expects revenue in the range of $7.2B to $7.35B from prior guidance of $6.8B to $7.2B and of consensus estimates of $7.02B. In addition, the company expects EPS in the range of $2.70 to $2.75 from prior guidance of $2.51 to $2.65 and consensus estimates of $2.57. The business couldn't be stronger and while recent volatility in the stock market had taken MU under $40 at Monday's close it looks to have made a double bottom. Looking for MU to continue to rally, however the market is in control here and a continued downward trend will derail the recent move.
MU - Is it just a meme?If you randomly picked a few readers of r/WallStreetBets, they'd probably tell you all about Micron (MU) & AMD and how they have fantastic potential. Focusing in on MU: is it going to live up to the hype?
From a technical analysis point of view, I'm inclined to agree! A very textbook flag/triangle pattern is forming - these patterns are generally trend continuation patterns. The semiconductor industry is booming. MU put together a very impressive sequence of earnings beats.
All in all, I believe we should see a breakout very soon!
Lam Research - Earnings trifecta but stock down?Lam Research (LRCX) delivered strongly in their Q4 earnings report, but the stock has since tumbled almost 10%.
The market for semiconductors is not going anywhere...
Target: give it to your grandchildren, or at least until processors using silicon fall out of favor.
SOXX and SOXL are also good ways to get some exposure to LRCX and the semiconductor market.
SOXL (and TXN) at a discountSOXL is a 3x leveraged ETF, whose top 5 holdings are TXN, NVDA, QCOM, INTC, and AVGO. Earlier today, TXN endured a massive sell-off following their unimpressive earnings report, resulting in a hard drop in price for SOXL, as well. However, I don't expect TXN to stay down past this trading week, and when it rebounds, SOXL will be along for the ride. The semiconductors industry is red hot.
LRCX Showing Bullish Charts Leading into Earnings tonight Trend Analysis:
-->Looks to be breaking resistance at $215. Strong earnings will likely allow the price to break through.
-->Hit support early today around $208
Indicators & Overlays:
-->MACD looking to cross over close to 0
-->DMI+ looking to cross over DMI- in an upward trend
-->RSI showing resistance at 40 and moving upward back to the 80 range
Micron Holding SupportMicron Technology (ticker: MU) is one of the largest manufacturers memory and storage solutions. The company is currently benefitting from a significant uptick in demand for its products and has seen an explosion in revenue and profits in recent quarters. Due to our technology loving society data usage, and therefore storage, has been growing off the chart. These are some massively bullish trends. Looking at the chart MU seems to be holding at its floor of support. Watch for the stock to rally back to its all time highs in the coming weeks.