NVDA DeepViewThrowing this out there, in case it unfolds.
NVDA, the path to $3000. Projection up to 2027...
Semiconductors
NVDA Update: How Low Can She Go?NASDAQ:NVDA was over-speculated. It is a component of many ETFs based on all kinds of index funds, from semi-conductor ETFs to Big Blue chip companies, etc.
NVDA was the big loss stock for the NASDAQ on Friday. The huge down day was due to many retail investors and smaller funds running for the door. This has nothing to do with its earnings report. It is a universal panic in the stock market. Pro traders bought the stock in the last few minutes of the trading day. Now the stock is close to being a buy on the dip candidate.
The angle of descent is too steep to sustain but the price can collapse further as there is not a Dark Pool Buy Zone firmly established at this level.
Revenues and earnings have been showing exponential growth but the next earnings report is a month away. Just keep in mind that the economy is booming. We had a nudge of higher inflation mostly due to oil prices but some due to corporate growth. Inflation = Growth.
[Weekly] $AMD #AMD NASDAQ:AMD #AMD
A 6 weeks free fall of about 82$ creates a significant and an attractive opportunity.
The stock price is testing a 2 years upper broken wedge "gray" and a weekly demand zone dates back to December 2023.
[Weekly] $AMBA #Ambarella is attractive.NASDAQ:AMBA #Ambarella
is currently testing a significant level. The lower wedge of a 10 years old extended channel . This is the 6th time the band is being tested. Even though testing a wedge several times weakens it. However, below it is almost a technical free fall zone to the 11: 12$ mark.
Keep it simple.
#AHMEDMESBAH
Nvidia - Struggling at the highs!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia.
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 6 years Nvidia stock has been trading in a pretty obvious rising channel formation. At the moment Nvidia stock is actually retesting the upper resistance trendline. Considering that Nvidia stock also rallied 650% over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term correction towards the downside, retesting the previous all time high.
--------
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
TSM: After Downgrading The Outlook, What To Expect?
Trend
- On the weekly chart: Clearly showing an uptrend.
- The uptrend channel has extended 100% and is expected to return to the middle line at least, with a chance of reaching the lower band of the original channel.
100% Symmetrical Projection: Uptrend “N” Patterns
- A 100% Symmetrical Projection of the initial swing (from A to B) and then projected from C. As a result, D was our initial target price.
- Without a symmetrical retracement from D to E, there's a resistance-turn-support at level D, and the price continued to rise. The target price was adjusted another 100% higher to D' due to the very strong momentum.
- However, the price failed to reach D' and fell below level D at $135, indicating that the momentum has dissipated. Additionally, on the daily chart, there's a support-turn-resistance to reinforce the level's importance.
- What's next?
The price may retrace 100% of the "extra force" of the blue box; or
The price is likely to fulfill the original symmetrical retracement from D to E.
N Pattern’s Target Price & Fibonacci Price Cluster
- The 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement of the entire swing from A to HH perfectly aligns with level E, which can be seen as one of the current target prices on the short side.
- The 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement of the more recent swing from C to HH is close to the low of the returning blue box.
- Both levels and the previous key resistance level at B form a tight zone, likely to be a significant support area (the gray area).
Conclusion
- After breaking below the key level at $135, TSM is expected to retrace to the tight range between $109 and $112.7.
- In other words, if you’re considering to buy more and invest in TSM, this tight support area presents an opportune entry point.
Not Financial Advice
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
Micron Technology - 100% in 6 months!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Micron Technology.
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2018 we saw a beautiful break and retest on Micron Technology which indicated even more continuation towards the upside. For over 5 years Micron Technology has also been trading in a quite nice rising channel formation and is now approaching the upper resistance trendline. I do expect a pullback and a retest of the previous all time highs and then just more continuation towards the upside.
--------
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
AMD - Finally a correction?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at AMD .
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2022 AMD perfectly retested the previous all time high which was turned support after AMD stock broke it towards the upside in 2020. Furthermore AMD stock also created a bullish symmetrical triangle formation and already broke out towards the upside. More often than not we will see a retest of the breakout level, potentially bullish confirmation and then the continuation towards the upside.
--------
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NVDA:is the top in or $1000 nextNVDA go a little bounce on Friday from a little hidden bullish divergence in the MACD histogram. It also put in an inside bar, so, not a very good look at the moment. Right now, last Thursday's high and low will be the range to break. If this week price can break above $906, then the chance for making $1000 increases. Perhaps, that is what the company is looking for to maximize the stock split, or perhaps the market wants the magic number to unload.
If $857 break down, then the EW count gets momentum. But to confirm that the downtrend has started or not, we need a full 5 wave sequence completed. Along with a breach of the long term trendline, it will be sell every bounce for NVDA for the foreseeable future. Cycle degree wave 4 can last for a few years.
NVDA is going to be a bit difficult to trade in the short term, so, keeping an open mind and fast fingers will be crucial.
Relative Strength between NVDA and TSLA about to shift.Head and Should Pattern on TSLA/NVDA chart.
This chart basically shows the relative strength between these two stocks, if we have a follow through tomorrow. TSLA will outrun NVDA in the short-term.
Meaning:
1. If we are going to have a bounce tomorrow, TSLA will most likely to outrun NVDA.
2. If Non-Farm and Unemployment rate kill the market tomorrow, TSLA will most likely to drop less than NVDA.
However, I think SOXL is currently sitting at the trendline support. I think bounce is imminent in the near term.
SEMI should be bouncing soon.As shown in the chart.
SOXL is still a higher low along on the trendline, seeking a bounce tomorrow.
I would take loss if SOXL dropped below 38.95. Otherwise, it should be ABC wave up to 53.
Upward trending channel - ASX:SEMI (Long)SEMI currently sitting on upward trend line within established bullish channel.
Previous support line at $16.30 where demand triggered another uptrend to above $17.00.
RSI currently within average buying levels around ~56-60% showing higher highs, indicating another potential run back towards previous ATH SP level of $17.54.
Aiming to take a long position between $17.00 - $17.10 if buying pressure increases in the coming days.
Disclaimer: NOT financial advice, I am not a qualified finance profession. These ideas are my own based on my research. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nvidia - Entering a bear market!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia.
--------
Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 6 years, Nvidia stock has been trading in a long term rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2021 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. As we are speaking Nvidia stock is retesting the upper resistance of the channel and we might see a short term correction towards the downside to retest the previous all time high.
--------
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Protective Puts to Ride SpeculationOverview
SoundHound AI ( NASDAQ:SOUN ) doesn't appear to be fundamentally sound, however, its technicals support a potential spike to around $15.50. While the rest of the market also appears to be nearing a peak, there may be a few more weeks of squeezing which is where SOUN may find a second, yet short-lived, wind.
Fundamentals
SoundHound AI has experienced significant negative income the last three years. There was an increase in cash flow which appears to be from the solicitation of its company's shares. The company has also downsized by 40% which it annotates in the 10-K Annual Report for 2023. Overall, my impression is that SoundHound is struggling to find its balance and is shrinking. I believe that the only reason it has surged as it much as it has is due to the market's overwhelming interest in artificial intelligence.
Strategy
Unfortunately it's not enough to be right about the health of a company especially when the rest of the market is chasing a high. Despite SOUN's lack of a healthy fundamentals, I would not be surprised to see a spike to the 1.618 Fibonacci level. This gives me the desire to utilize protective puts in case the market euphoria ends sooner than expected.
INTC Awaits a reversal from the bottom of the recent price rangeINTC in the past week trended up and reversed into a trend down which then went into a low
volatility narrow range consolidation to finish out the week. I see INTC as being in the bottom
of its recent trading range and ready to head higher inthe upcoming week. The RSI lines are
in the area of 35-40 and the slope of the regression line is rapidly decreasing. On the
15 minute chart based on the volume profite and a Fibonacci retracement I have marked
out two targets and the stop loss. I am going back to the well as INTC paid me in February
and appears ready for a swing trade long here. Although, it is in the shadows of NVDA and the
others INTC along with SOUN, DELL, HPE and been recent winning trades and going back
to what has worked in the recent past is my strategy here.
TXN rising and at fair value LONGTXN is on a 240 minute chart. It is a grinder from the 70s. I was there and a proud owner of
a TI programmable calculator costing $500 as a teenager. New cars cost $5000 for a nice VW
Bug ( got them nearly the same time). TXN has a role to play in semi-conductor and AI space.
It has been lagging others. The chart makes me believe that it is waking up. Buying after
a TTM squeeze at the mean of the anchored VWAP or the middle line of the bands is a way
to lower risk and get fair value. TXN was there for me back in the day. I am taking a long
trade now. It's time to get a full rebate ( or more with badly inflated dollars). TXN has retested
that mean VWAP line. It's good to go.
ON Semiconductor lags its leading peer Engulfing Candle LONGON shown on a 30 minute chart- has fallen behind but is a top 50 seached on the the Zack
website. It recently trended down from a push to outside the Bollinger Bands showing extreme
buying volaility and price action than a big fade into selling volatility and a slight compression.
The TTM squeeze fired just as price fell outside the lower band. Price rose abruptly into and
over the trendline and then printed a so called" Big Ass Candle" engulfing about five
hours of price action. This is a strong buy. ON will work to catch up with MU NVDA and the
frontrunners. I will profit while it runs that race.
TERADYNE (TER) a AI / Chip Sector Stock SHORTTER shown here on a 30 minute chart has asended in a diverging channel to the resistance of
January pivot high shown in the line and zone drawn onto the chart. My idea is to short it
from here targeting first about 106 which is the line drawn from a pivot before the
paradoxical fall with a decent earnings report. The lower target is the support trendline of
the channel or about 103.5. This is about a 6% potential trade and more with margin or
put options. I expect the trade to last two days as falling down is usually quick than rising.
ARM Flag Breakout After ConsolidationARM is looking to break out of a bull flag after a month of sideways action. Bounced off the 20 EMA and looking to head back to the highs as the market rotates back into semis. First target $150.
AMD has been in a downtrend since March 8th, Watch this levelSince March 8th, AMD has been experiencing a consistent downtrend, repeatedly encountering resistance at the descending moving average within this abbreviated timeframe. A pivotal movement above the level indicated by the green arrow could potentially signal a significant upward momentum. It is worth noting that the stock has persistently tested and concluded above the 50-day moving average during the last 4 trading sessions. Should this threshold maintain its support, Should the AMD price efficaciously transcend above the benchmark delineated by the green arrow a successful breach could herald a potentially robust bullish phase.
Can we see 800?If my tech analysis is correct, this can hit 800. Stop Loss 100. Buckle Up in this AI craziness.
SOXL 50 EMA BounceSOXL is tightening down in a wedge and bounced perfectly off the 50 EMA after being down over 6% on the day. Looking for continued strength into the close. Chart looking very similar to what we saw at the end of January and early February.
Time to Test Some Lower Levels for SupportBack in December when NVDA was trading in the 490s I posted an idea (linked) predicting it would make a run to 660. It went above and beyond that, and now its at a point where I'm exiting long positions and watching it closely for a chance to short.
At this point, I think it is still risky to short, but staying long is foolish. NVDA has started a distribution phase and has earnings as a catalyst this week. What remains to be seen is if this distribution phase will have an upthrust (UTAD) to achieve one more higher high, or if it will get its sign of strength to the downside. Bulls might ask why would it reverse now? - because increasing demand has become unsustainable with out making a pullback to establish some significant support below.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Near Term expectations for price action:
- I'm looking to enter some near-term puts on other names next week, but I'm not playing NVDA until after earnings (there are better plays)
- But I think NVDA (and semis group) is arguably most important driver of overall market currently
*** 715 is the most important level
- If 715 holds as support NVDA will see a higher high in the coming weeks
- If it sees a sustained break below 715 then it will become bearish near-term and will need to test some lower levels for support before attempting new high
Chart - important areas explained:
** If NVDA is trading inside the shaded green diamond going into earnings then I'm expecting a gap up following the report to breakout above 742
3 most likely paths:
GREEN arrow (bullish): drop to test 715 going into the earnings report and then breakout above 742 - if this occurs my upside targets will be 777, 792 and 816 by end of March 2024
RED Arrow (near-term bearish, but will provide buying opportunity): break below 715 to around 697-707 and then test 715 for resistance but get rejected ( if this occurs I will buy Mar 1 puts, and my downside target will be 661-683 by 2/28-3/1 )
black arrow ("worst case" scenario bearish): I don't think NVDA will crash but its setup does actually allow that as a possibility if 661 fails as support)... in this scenario we will get the same price action as the RED path, but 661 would fail as support. If this occurs there is downside risk to 560 and my targets will become 619, 585, 560 .. This would actually be the best case scenario for traders ha $$$$ - not enough evidence yet to expect this but I am watching close.
See linked ideas of my previous NVDA long ideas if you need validation that I'm not just some doomsday preacher, I'm looking at it unbiased as possible.
