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Semiconductors

NVIDIA 1000 SOON ?NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA), a leading player in the technology sector, has been showing promising signs that could potentially drive its stock price to reach the $1000 mark. Here’s why: Strong Financial Performance NVIDIA’s financial performance has been impressive. In 2023, NVIDIA’s revenue was $60.92 billion, an increase of 125.85% compared to the previous year’s $26.97 billion1. Earnings were $29.76 billion, an increase of 581.32%1. This strong financial performance indicates a healthy and growing company. Positive Analyst Ratings The consensus rating for NVIDIA stock from 41 stock analysts is "Strong Buy"23. This means that analysts believe this stock is likely to perform very well in the near future and significantly outperform the market. Future Growth Prospects According to forecasts, NVIDIA’s revenue for the year 2025 is expected to reach $136.09 billion, representing a growth of 21.67% from the current year1. The EPS for the year 2025 is forecasted to be $30.41, representing a growth of 22.03% from the current year2. These growth prospects could potentially drive the stock price higher. Dominance in AI and Gaming NVIDIA’s pivotal role in the artificial intelligence market and its dominance in the gaming industry are key factors that could drive its stock price. The company’s GPUs are widely used in data centers, gaming, and AI, sectors that are expected to grow significantly in the coming years1. Bullish Technical Indicators Based on technical indicators, the current sentiment is bullish and NVDA could hit $2,813.93 in 20254. This might be a good time to open fresh positions on NVDA, as trading bullish markets is always a lot easier4. While the road to $1000 may have its ups and downs, the combination of NVIDIA’s strong financial performance, positive analyst ratings, future growth prospects, and dominance in key sectors makes a compelling bull case for its stock.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Semiconductor Bull Run: more steam ahead, but take cautionSome industries are notoriously cyclical. Semiconductor is a prime example. It swings to the extreme on both bullish and bearish sides. While the industry is in a bull run, investors can still participate in its rise but with caution. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (“SOX”) is a modified market-cap weighted index. It is composed of semiconductor firms involved in the design, production, and distribution. This paper dives into the factor’s driving SOX performance. It expounds on the cyclical nature of the industry, and its outlook fuelled by AI frenzy. Finally, this note posits a hypothetical spread trade to gain from index outperformance relative to the broader market. The spread has been found to be more resilient that an outright position in SOX ETF or futures. UBIQUITOUS AI AI here. AI there. AI everywhere. AI by far is the single most driver of SOX outperformance. VANTAGE:NVIDIA , the AI darling commands ~10% of the SOX. Other AI majors include Broadcom (9.3% weight) and chip equipment maker ASML (4.5% weight). The strongest profit harvester of AI boost is Nvidia. Expectedly, it has strongly outperformed SOX. AI-driven demand is evident in its financials. In 2023, its revenues rose by 125% YoY while Net income spiked by a jaw-dropping 580%. Consistent earnings beat-and-raise has propelled its stock prices to more than 500% gain since the start of 2023. Outsized impact of Nvidia’s earnings is from AI data centre sales. AI NOW, AND MORE IN THE FUTURE. Nvidia is clearly benefiting in the near-term. Other majors are ramping up their AI offerings. Notable among them are NASDAQ:AMD (9.8% weight in SOX), VANTAGE:INTEL (6.75%), and $Qualcomm (7.5%). These firms are yet to witness a major AI driven boost. 2023 data centre revenue for these firms remained underwhelming relative to AI winners such as Nvidia and Broadcom. Broadcom’s AI driven demand for its networking solutions led to revenue of USD 2.3 billion in Q1 2024 which represents a four-fold increase YoY, reported MarketWatch. For 2024, they forecast AI-driven sales to reach USD 10 billion. Data Source: TradingView Meanwhile, Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm are in the process of launching their own AI offerings. Qualcomm’s updated Snapdragon X Elite chips runs on ARM architecture. These offer enhanced AI capabilities, energy efficiency & performance compared to current platforms from Intel and AMD. AMD updated its guidance for AI graphics offerings to USD 3.5 billion this year (v/s two billion previously). Although, below expectations, the raised outlook signals that sales ramp up is yet to materialize. Intel is planning to launch AI PCs. Uniquely, in such PCs, AI inference will be localized on the user’s machines rather than on the cloud. Like Qualcomm, Intel’s AI PCs may revive its faltering PC sales. NEXT TO AI, REBOUND IN MOBILE PHONE SALES IS HELPING THE INDUSTRY Beyond AI driven demand, rebound in smartphone sales highlighted by Counterpoint Research has helped change the fortunes of this industry. Final quarter of last year marked the first quarter of annual growth after 7 straight quarters of declining sales volume as per their report . Smartphone sales rebound benefits not just mobile chip makers like Qualcomm but also manufacturing service providers like TSMC. SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY IS NOTORIOUSLY CYCLICAL. FORTUNATELY, BULL CYCLE FOR NOW. Semiconductor industry is prone to cyclicality. It is impacted by idiosyncratic consumption patterns. As a result, industry runs into large inventory buildups resulting in gluts for outdated products and shortages for new ones. Due to the rapid innovation rate, production sizing is hard. Even harder is for manufacturing output to adjust to shifting demand dynamics. Cyclicality is on over-drive these few years. Pandemic disrupted chip production while demand remained robust. Subsequent shortage impacted not just semiconductor firms but also various other industries reliant on chips. Manufacturers ramped up production to meet high demand. Soaring inflation drove central banks to raise interest rates. This caused consumer spending, especially on discretionary electronic items to nose-dive. This dynamic rapidly drove chip inventories from a severe shortage to demand crushing glut. What followed was painful mark-downs and profit crushing unit sale declines. Cyclicality is ingrained in this industry due to its consumption, innovation, and growth cycles. As an example, consider VANTAGE:INTEL ’s revenue and profit. VANTAGE:INTEL derives majority of its revenue (54% in 2023) from its Client Computing division comprising of consumer-focused processors. The impact of seasonality is also palpable in the net income of memory manufacturer $Micron. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP Robust financial performance is evident for some stocks within SOX. Other names within SOX are yet to reap the harvest of top-line and bottom-line growth from AI. Notwithstanding, SOX continues to rise. It is up +100% relative to the start of 2023 when AI-driven hype came to the fore. Over exuberance and risks of a bubble are clear. A macro slowdown or industry-specific setback could drive a sharp reversal in SOX. Instead of an outright position in SOX ETF or Futures, spreads between SOX and other equity indices shows that SOX/S&P 500 spread makes for a compelling hypothetical trade setup. SOX/S&P 500 spread offers improved upside relative to SOX/Nasdaq-100 and SOX/XLK spread. It also offers resilient performance during sharp corrections (August to November 2023). The SOX/S&P 500 spread is 36% higher since the start of 2023 and close to its highest level seen during 1995 and 2000. For reference, the SOX index is up 80% from 2023 and soaring far above previous all-time-highs. This implies that much of the recent run-up in SOX has come alongside a broader rally in the S&P 500. SOX outperformance is likely to continue while SOX tailwinds remain intact. A hypothetical spread trade comprising of two lots of long CME E-Mini PHLX Semiconductor Sector Futures (“SOX Futures”) and short one lot of CME E-Mini S&P 500 Futures can offer a reward to risk ratio of 1.5x. Two contracts of SOX Futures are required to match the notional for one contract of E-Mini S&P 500 futures. • Entry: 0.927 • Target: 0.97275 • Stop Loss: 0.897 • Profit at Target: USD 11,783 (+4.9%) • Loss at Stop: - USD 7,893 (-3.3%) • Reward to Risk: 1.5x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
CME_MINI:SOX1!Long
by mintdotfinance
AMD Corrected Again- Buy the Dip Idea LONGAMD on the 15 minute chart breakout through anchord VWAP bands starting on February 29th from the mean anchored VWAP support. Two days later finding itself extended to the second upper VWAP band, price corrected over the next day down to the first upper band and then after a few hours reversed and headed back toward the second upper band going somewhat sideways and getting there two and a half days later. Price was rejected from that dynamic resistance and fell into the first band which provided support to close the week. The Luxalgo regression line forecast is for yet another more up to test the resistance of that second upper band. I will take a long trade here recognizing that the forecast is for a 10-12% move in the immediate term. If the forecast is accurate a stop loss will not be necessary. I will set it at 204 to prevent anything other than an insignificant loss.
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
Nvidia - $1000 And Then DropHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: Starting in 2018 Nvidia stock has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation. We had the last retest in August of 2018 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. Considering that Nvidia is now approaching the upper resistance of the channel, I do expect a (short term) pullback to retest previous support and then more continuation from there. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by basictradingtv
20
SOXS goes LONG Inversing SOXL SOXS on the 30-minute chart has reversed from a trend down to an early uptrend. This is confirmed by a variety of indicators including the ATR/ U BOT indicator reset to a period of 4, the relative volume indicator showing buying volume spikes instead of selling spikes, as well as the squeeze indicator changes from a green negative histogram to a positive one. Many semi conductor stocks have had major price runs upside. The time has come to watch them for reversals. I will close my SOXL position in favor of a new long trade in SOXS.
AMEX:SOXSLong
by AwesomeAvani
2
Can INTC breakout from a trinagle ? LONGINTC on a 180 minute chart is in a flat bottom triangle since before earnings. The earnings report was a beat of 20% on earnings and 1.5 % on revenue but apparently disappointed greedy traders expecting more. Price has been mostly sideways. I saw the dip on Tuesday to Thursday as an opportunity to take a call option trade for Friday which had a great return. I see INTC ready to gain price and break out of the triangle. It has a P/E ratio much lower than some of the high flyers in its subsector making it attractive to value-seeking investors and traders who like to buy at the lows. Price is now above the long-term POC line where buying pressure should predominate. Having seen the rise on Friday, some short sellers may begin to buy to cover and close their positionons especially those with put options from which the time to realize profits is now.
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by AwesomeAvani
NVIDIA 850 ABOVE 815 SL 805 Reason Why Nvidia Will Still Growing Diverse Market Presence: NVIDIA is not just a semiconductor manufacturer; it’s a tech powerhouse. Beyond GPUs for gaming and professional markets, they also create system-on-a-chip (SoC) units for mobile computing and automotive applications. Their expansion into cloud software and services positions them well for growth1. Cloud-Based Software Dominance: The pandemic accelerated the adoption of cloud-based software and computing. NVIDIA’s GPUs play a crucial role in data centers—the brains behind cloud services. In Q1 2021, NVIDIA’s data center revenue hit a record high of $2.05 billion, accounting for 36% of total sales. Major players like Microsoft’s Azure Cloud, Google Cloud, and Amazon’s AWS rely on NVIDIA’s GPUs for data operations1. AI and Deep Learning: Artificial intelligence (AI) systems demand fast and reliable processors. NVIDIA’s GPUs are unmatched for training and running AI systems. Their focus on research and development ensures they stay at the forefront of AI technology1. Competing with Giants: NVIDIA is developing its own cloud services, including AI Enterprise and the Base Command Platform. They’re also venturing into creative collaboration tools with Omniverse. These initiatives put them in direct competition with tech giants like Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft1. Analyst Estimates: While NVIDIA’s stock has rallied significantly, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains high. However, analysts estimate that by fiscal 2025, their earnings per share could double, making the stock more attractive2.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL
Intel: Bullish Gartley with Bullish Divergence Targeting $64.19Leading to the most recent earnings report, Intel had reached a 61.8% retrace from High to Low and was showing signs of reversing, so I decided to take profit on Intel. Now, upon spotting a potential trend continuation Bullish Gartley I now think it's possible for INTC to recover from here and perhaps go all the way for the 0.886 at $64.90, so I will be buying back in at these lower prices. For context on the previous bullish setup, check the chart below:
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by RizeSenpai
AVGO Chipmaker in an ascending channel SHORTOn a 30-minute chart, like several other computer chip manufactures has approached or reached a near-term top. Overall Broadcom has gained 19% YTD. Earnings are in about two weeks. I see this as a short trade to follow AVGO from the top of the channel down to about 1225 in time to catch earnings at the bottom of the channel to end the swing trade and instead go long from there. I intend to close the trade two days before earnings and flip sides hunting the beat on the earnings.
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by AwesomeAvani
Besi Ride High on AI Chip Demand Surge: Quarter Targets ExceededBesi ( EURONEXT:BESI ), the Dutch chipmaking parts supplier, has recently surpassed fourth-quarter targets, buoyed by soaring demand for its cutting-edge hybrid bonding technology and AI-enabled computing applications. This surge in demand underscores a broader trend of chipmakers ramping up capacity to meet the insatiable appetite for AI-driven solutions across various industries. The fourth-quarter performance unveiled by Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) has been nothing short of stellar. The company reported a remarkable 30% rise in quarterly orders, amounting to a staggering 166 million euros ($180 million). This surge in orders is primarily attributed to the burgeoning demand for hybrid bonding, a pivotal technology in chip packaging essential for AI applications. Notably, hybrid bonding orders nearly doubled during this period, with a significant portion earmarked for Besi's most advanced systems. Besi's ( EURONEXT:BESI ) impressive clientele, which includes industry heavyweights like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung, underscores the company's pivotal role in the semiconductor ecosystem. These key players have been increasingly adopting Besi's ( EURONEXT:BESI ) advanced chipmaking tools, further solidifying its position as a frontrunner in the sector. The positive momentum extended beyond Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ), with sector giants like Nvidia also posting upbeat results and forecasts. This collective optimism has propelled shares of associated companies, including Tokyo Electron, Aixtron, Infineon, ASML, and ASM International, reflecting the broader bullish sentiment surrounding semiconductor manufacturing. Looking ahead, Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) remains bullish on its prospects, foreseeing further growth in the hybrid bonding market and other advanced packaging technologies. To capitalize on this momentum, the Amsterdam-based company is expanding its footprint beyond China, with strategic investments in Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. This strategic diversification not only mitigates risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties but also aligns with the evolving landscape of semiconductor manufacturing. Despite the stellar performance, Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) remains cautiously optimistic about the near-term outlook. CEO Richard Blickman acknowledged the uncertain trajectory of the recovery in 2024, citing restrained demand for mainstream applications and weakness in automotive end-user markets. However, industry analysts anticipate a rebound in the market between 2024 and 2026, driven by recovery in mainstream assembly and Chinese markets, alongside the burgeoning demand for AI logic, memory applications, and advanced packaging. In conclusion, Besi's ( EURONEXT:BESI ) exceptional performance in the fourth quarter underscores its resilience and innovation in the dynamic semiconductor industry. With its pioneering technologies and strategic expansion initiatives, Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) is poised to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI-driven solutions, positioning itself as a key player in shaping the future of chip manufacturing. As the industry braces for a period of recovery and expansion, Besi ( EURONEXT:BESI ) stands at the forefront, driving innovation and powering the next generation of transformative technologies.
EURONEXT:BESILong
by DEXWireNews
NVDA to AMD Ratio Comparative ValueHere on a daily chart I have the ratio of shares of NVDA to AMD and so the market caps proportions. From September 2022 and for a year NVDA rose more than AMD and so the ratio rose. From September 2023 to January 2024, NVDA fell as compared with AMD perhaps because AMD's rate of rise on a percentage basis exceeded that of NVDA. Since the first of the year, the ratio is rising meaning NVDA is gaining share price faster than AMD. If a trader could switch between these, the ratio represents a way to determine which to sell and which to buy at any given time. Right now, NVDA is the buy until the ratio curve reverses.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by AwesomeAvani
NVDA: the sky didn't fallIf you have taken advantage of the 20% drawdown in Aug-Sep, then a 16% rally this month, then congrats to you. Right now, the final leg of correction is in progress before the next bull run starts. Today we might have seen the sharp a wave of Y. Things might slide a bit more, but a bounce should be incoming. After the bounce we should see the final leg down, when everyone and their mothers will scream head and shoulders. But, most likely that will not play out the way bears want. Sure, there a lot of room to fall, but NVDA is in a very strong position despite the political drama. If things go down, my bet would be that one of the fib support areas will hold and price will make another ATH by Q1 next year. As for my trading plan, I will sit this one out and wait for a bullish confirmation to enter, rather than shorting this right now.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by mukit1
SOXL / SOXS , this ratio analysis shows when to trade eachSOXL is the triple leveraged semi-conductor ETF while SOXS is its inverse. While SOXL is primarily up trending in its intermediate and full-time history, it does from time to time have a correction mainly when the technology sector gets challenged. I have found that plotting the ratio of the share values is a very accurate way of pinpointing those corrections and temporarily buy some SOXS to offset the downward price action and nullifying any loss. This is more or less insurance in case the overall position must be closed for one reason or another or transient hedging. As can be seen, these corrections last 1-5 days . This strategy is effective risk management as during the correction the SOXS gains some of what SOXL loses especially if the share dollars are equally balanced. Ever better is the same thing on a 2-3 hour time frame albeit it with more hedging trades. I have found that this strategy works on a variety of inverse ETF pairs. Most of them however do not have one side going up more or less continuously and instead oscillate rather than simple and shallow corrections like this pair. Please give a like if you this this could be helpful to your trading.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by AwesomeAvani
How to BRR 101Refer to my prev AMD post back in Jan for credibility - I predicted run to 158-165 when it was in the 130s (result: ran to 180s). Now we have a buy the dip opportunity after earnings sell off. There is still too much demand for this to tank yet, it wants one more high (at least). Path to targets is the solid black line. Bullish channel its respecting is the dashed blue channel, every time it dips outside of that it gets bought up fast: - Initial target = 187.50 by 2/9/2024 - After that hits it will pullback to around 176 - If 176 can hold as support it will make one final run to 192-199 by early March 2024 Trailing Stop loss is 2 consecutive closes below the dotted red line. Entered Feb 16 175 calls for 3.50 on 1/31/2024 (underlying 167.67)
NASDAQ:AMDLong
by JerryManders
10
Nvidia - How Long Will It LastHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: All the way back in February of 2014 we saw a breakout of a long term symmetrical triangle on Nvidia. This breakout was followed by an insane +9.500% rally towards the upside. Right now Nvidia is trading in a solid ascending channel and is approaching the upper resistance trendline. I do expect a (short term) pullback from there to retest the support mentioned in the analysis. -------- I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied. Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions. Keep your long term vision.
NASDAQ:AMD
by basictradingtv
9
AMD EXTENED LINE'S EXTENDED LINE EDITION (CONTINUE OR FALL)If you've been following me with AMD, we're pretty much out at this point, as we've been targeting the trade since 93, and there isn't much point to miss a few extra percentage points on the topside at the risk of losing all or much of the profits. HOWEVER, there are still trades to the topside, as far as trades heading to the bottom side. Marked in thick green and thick red are the TWO STRONGEST support and rejection trends I could find. Do more exist? Maybe, but you'll need a better analyst that me to find those. Light red are steep support trends that have been building on top of each other (stacking) Think of this like a skyscraper being built. All indicators point that we are nearing a top. However, this means nothing as short term indicators can theoretically keep pumping the price over the long term targets, which would see numbers at 200+ Notice the time frame of the chart, 2h, meaning it won't last for more than a couple weeks and you'll likely have a whole new set of trends. A move like this into earnings is going to be the big question. 179 189 are two really strong rejection lines. May not be exact, but close. You really need to analyze in real time at this point because move will happen faster and faster. I would say, should the price not hold 171.00, I would wait to see what happens in the short term, and try and buy the dip if it occurs pre earnings, with a potential trade before, on or right after earnings. I would then be waiting on topside for a short entry rather than pushing my luck as a bull. If you follow me with trades, you'll know that we essentially speak in probability. Meaning, at or above 189, I'm more likely to screw up than make a good trade, and if I screw up, there is a lot of downside showing, which will do absolutely nothing to cover the mistake (loss). Having said that, if you're a short term trader and familiar with short term trading, yes there are absolutely still chances to trade above this level should it occur. We would also say, there is a better than average chance that should I wait for some of these topside targets to hit and enter short, I have a better than average chance to both profit, and make more overall money, than trying to time out more really short term trades. It's all about profitability, risk, percentages, and patience. Waiting for the RIGHT trade IS 1000% better than jumping into a trade you missed because you have FOMO. There will almost always be another buy, there will almost always be another stock moving up the percentage you missed. Idk, what it would be called in formal terms, but I call it the sniper strategy. Good luck!! I've attached all previous AMD charts to this chart.
NASDAQ:AMD
by nicktussing77
1