AMD- Another rejection of VMA
Candle yet to close, but price seems to reject 60 Day VMA (or 50 SMA if you prefer)
Volume profile has been really constructive, so I wouldn't be quick to short this.
if it can build above 94, still have a good chance for breakout. Short case would be weak action to test the trendline and hard rejection there would set this up for new low.
Semis
Bullish Near term to 558-590Expectation is bullish until end of May, then bearish in June to complete corrective wave.
Some confluence here using Elliot Wave, Harmonic Patterns, and Gann:
Primary EWT count gives recent completion of corrective A, next stop B. The details of this primary count are below:
- Impulse began 9/24/2012 (not shown) at 31.17
- Wave 1 completed 3/12/2018 (not shown) at 234.88
- Wave 2 retraced 55% of wave 1 and completed 12/24/2018 (not shown) at 122.64
- Wave 3 was a 271% extension of wave 1 and completed 6/1/2021 (not shown) at 637.80
- Wave 4 retraced 25% of wave 3 and completed 10/18/2021 at 535.01
- Wave 5 was apprx = wave 1 (97%) and completed 1/3/2022 at ATH 731.85
- Wave A completed 4/25/2022 at 449.50
* Wave B will likely extend to 557.35 (0.382 of A), 590.68 (0.5 of A), or 624 (0.618 of A)
** Wave C will need an update given the realization of actual level for B, however, based on the confluence (provided below) it is likely wave C will complete around 416 (0.618 of A) coming off wave B at around 590
(Alt. ABC Count (not shown in chart) would indicate the ABC already completed at A = 466.06 on 3/14/2022, B = 574.79 on 3/28 2022, and C = 449.50 on 4/25/2022; however, the subdivision count for this alt wave C is not convincing and it is more likely that level is the A of the primary count)
Confluence (supporting primary count):
- Projected minor bearish harmonic to complete D at corrective wave B level
- Projected major bullish Cypher (half shown, begins X in October 2021) will complete D at corrective wave C level
- Descending Gann fan off the wave 5 (All time high) showing lessening capacity for price (change in price to downside) to keep up with time (i.e. 1/1 angle about to be penetrated in favor of testing the 2/1 resistance – which will suggest wave B occurring in the time frame of 5/13/2022 – early June 2022). The price would then likely drop to test the 1/1 angle by end of June 2022 to complete the C (if rejected at the 2/1, thus completing B)
- Ascending Gann fan off the wave A swing low indicating price is staying in the upper section of fan and keeping up with time to the upside (exceeding it actually, which is bullish near term)
- RSI showing bullish momentum to take the price to Wave B
Not financial advice, but if you are curious how I am playing this:
- May 20 505 calls, hedge with May 13 450 puts (3 calls: 1 put). Will take profits if RSI crosses bearish or if price reaches 550s
- May 27 535 calls to let ride to potential wave B target of 590
- IF the near term bullish scenario plays out and those calls print I’ll be watching for price to drop below 507 and look to enter July 450 puts to play the drop to projected wave C in the lower 400s
- Love this company, love how the LRCX calls and puts move. Ton of doe to be made leveraging these swings!!
Sincerely,
Severus Snape
SOXL close to a strong supportSOXL tracks the performance of the thirty largest U.S. listed semiconductor companies.
The semiconductor space is still hot, but the companies in the leveraged Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) didn`t performed well against the inflation and raising interest rates recently.
I think SOXL is now close to the strong support of $21, pre-pandemic level, from which it can bounce to the $36 resistance.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
TSM will breach support and continue lowerThere is no better crystal ball to predict the future performance of an asset than its own chart.
Keeping it simple, TSM broke bellow a 15-month lateral range, and several days later failed to reconquer the lost grounds. It's been under distribution, and the last candle is the most bearish.
TSM won't be able to hold at support and will continue lower.
4/17/22 AMATApplied Materials, Inc. ( NASDAQ:AMAT )
Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Industrial Machinery)
Market Capitalization: 100.142B
Current Price: $113.36
Breakdown price: $114.50
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $125.60-$136.95
Price Target: $97.20-$94.80 (4th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 40-44d (4th)
Contract of Interest: $AMAT 5/20/22 110p
Trade price as of publish date: $4.95/contract
$MRVL Long Idea - Wyckoff accumulationMarvell Tech
Bull case : Wyckoff accumulation pattern with 78 resistance , expect some digestion there and then it's on Phase E where I see 90 and first price target in coming months (green arrow)
Bear case : rejected at 78 and "double top" , it's at least back down to test rounded base at 70 zone, break there and it's back to 60 support...
Today's flow was very bullish with a buyer of 1/20/23 90 calls and 6/17/2022 77.5 calls .
I think this rally is just getting started and my bias is to the upside , I'm long .
$AMD Semis need to lead for bullsThe bull case is still in play as AMD although down considerably from 165 high , is still holding strong support at 100 and currently trading above its 200MA
AMD has been building next level of support at 113 with a recent thrust to 124, which makes sense considering the 200MA is a VERY important level for the bulls and bears alike.
So long as AMD holds 100 , and continues to find buyers 113 zone, my bias is for a breakout of this downward channel to the upside.
A break below and there will be bigger issues , i.e. I'd imagine this will only happen if the market is down considerably from a catalyst event (although inflation, rates, war, supply chain issues, all have yet to cause a mass liquidation so I'm not sure what will... Nuclear War ? I pray not )
I do know for sure that any melt up that does occur, I would be looking at AMD / NVDA / SMH / MU to be strong movers to the upside.
Let's see ! I'm long April calls and will add so long as we hold 100
Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: $AMD) Is Down 36% From ATH PriceAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. operates as a semiconductor company worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Computing and Graphics; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. Its products include x86 microprocessors as an accelerated processing unit, chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units (GPUs), data center and professional GPUs, and development services; and server and embedded processors, and semi-custom System-on-Chip (SoC) products, development services, and technology for game consoles. The company provides x86 microprocessors for desktop PCs under the AMD Ryzen, AMD Ryzen PRO, Ryzen, Threadripper, AMD A-Series, AMD FX, AMD Athlon, AMD Athlon PRO, and AMD Pro A-Series processors brands; microprocessors for notebook and 2-in-1s under the AMD Ryzen, AMD A-Series, AMD Athlon, AMD Ryzen PRO, AMD Athlon PRO, and AMD Pro A-Series processors brands; microprocessors for servers under the AMD EPYC and AMD Opteron brands; and chipsets under the AMD trademark. It also offers discrete GPUs for desktop and notebook PCs under the AMD Radeon graphics and AMD Embedded Radeon brands; professional graphics products under the AMD Radeon Pro and AMD FirePro graphics brands; and Radeon Instinct and AMD Instinct accelerators for servers. In addition, the company provides embedded processor solutions under the AMD Opteron, AMD Athlon, AMD Geode, AMD Ryzen, AMD EPYC, AMD R-Series, and G-Series processors brands; and customer-specific solutions based on AMD CPU, GPU, and multi-media technologies, as well as semi-custom SoC products. It serves original equipment manufacturers, public cloud service providers, original design manufacturers, system integrators, independent distributors, online retailers, and add-in-board manufacturers through its direct sales force, independent distributors, and sales representatives. Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.
$SMH Semis Breakout RetestSMH Breakout Retest of 313, needs confirmation . Failure expect a move back in the box to the 300 zone.
Given the bullish seasonality and technical confluence (MACD cross and RSI uptick), bias is to the upside with $325 and $332 price targets.
I'm long JAN $315 Calls, 30% stop.
Long NVDA HereBeautiful consolidation is occurring here with $NVDA after the Fed clarified tapering decisions today.
Nice bounce off the 0.618 Fib level with RSI curling back up as well after hitting lows on the daily timeframe. It appears to be a great entry if NVDA can clear the 0.786 Fib level next.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice!
ASML - Chips feel the DIPWhen the Globes largest Semiconductor FAB, dumps 4% in one day...
It might be a warning sign of Price action ahead.
We continue to position into a Put Calendar Spread for the SMH
from 240 - 270.
We will begin to acquire 400 Puts within November 19 through
December 17 Time Range.
We believe there is an opportunity beginning today and are acting
on what we see as the potential for downside to the 231 Level.
SMH - The TECH MaestrosYou have to laugh, as Retail was piling into the NQ/MNQ @ 71, 75, 82, 88, 90, 92, 95 on the SELL.
The BOTS simply waited for the 3:59 arrival to run all those stops at 410 - 420.
Usually, they wait until 1 second after 4 and run it vertical @ until 4:02 PM EST.
By 4:05 PM EST - a new high off the Ledge @ 15428.50.
Ya see, all the Baby Seals were thinking - "Bruh, uh... last time we were at 399 we fell 100 Points,
it's probably a good idea to Sell this now... fer sure" - the Problem is, the AIQC knows this... and
you see the results.
It knows how to read forums in nanoseconds and observe your behaviors, it sees the ENTIRE ORDER BOOK.
As odd lots of Micros for MNQ went flying by... it was painful to watch as the clubbing
was being set in motion, sad really. It's cheating, but then this entire game is one big cheat.
They win, you lose... Someone has to lose... not everyone gets a Trophy.
You sell when it is, not until... keep it simple.
The sure thing bruh, yeah, naw, it's stacked against you.
Why wait when there's fresh blood in the water, the Mako's did not hesitate, chewed to chum
bits during a 1 Minute Bar.
Baby Seals clubbed again in Semi CONductors of which there is very little Conducting going on
or ongoing for that matter.
Fires, Water Shortages, Green Agenda... Yada Yada, pick any excuse.
There is a shortage of Chips, Globally. Although one would never, apparently never, have a DIRECT
Effect upon Price of Said Chippers.
NQ to 15517 will only add Insult to Injury.
Winsome, lose some - Literally.
Chips N' NO Dip:
AMAT + .99%
MU +.54%
AVGO + 1.445%
TXN + 1.7%
INTC + 1.54%
QCOM + 1.83%
ASML + 1.62%
NVDA + .40%
TSM + 1.40%
Semi's rocked the Bang Bus after being rocked for weeks on end.
AS the VXN dipped into new lows for the Day, it did not matter a Whit... NQ Made new highs
after it reversed and closed 28 ticks off the lows... AIQC... it's a Hunter Killer.
Sweet Ginger Brown... it's a mess out there, they are entirely desperate to get this up and lickety-split
as indicated.
What's the Rush?
We're going to find out soon enough, and it will not be Good.
Here's that word again............
P A T I E N C E
- HK
$NVDA: Scoop There It Is ⤴️Recent political environments regarding Taiwan Semiconductors have highlighted the world's economy's need to wain from the dominance of TSM in the semiconductor manufacturing process, I think a great deal of money is going to come into NVDA both private and government as the US seeks to retain harmony with political rivals. This could greatly benefit Nivida's market cap, the stock has also shown how effectively it can move in massive cycle's so timing a perfect entry could be difficult through this range, but try scaling in and keeping your cost basis as low as you can.
$TSM Trade the ChannelTSMC is a nice Iron Condor Setup looking back :)
I like credit spreads here or can try naked calls to ride the channel up . Earnings upcoming so a better idea may be to sell puts and capture the IV crush after.
Regardless, TSM has been in the 107-125 range since March and you can trade it as such until we see a bigger box breakout either up or down.
I took the 11/19 110/105P for 1.88 avg
$AMD and end of September Semiconductors...Here are some zones to ponder for NASDAQ:AMD next week. I have some larger bear and bull scenarios, but this is my little short term sliver of FRIDAY NIGHT FORESHADOWING.
Bullish in the blue, bearish in the red. Beware fakeouts!
Get on board, buddies!!!
-- patrick