SOXS - Semiconductors setting up for large D U N KSOXS
SOXS
SOXS
China
Shortages
Q3 Dismal EPS
SOXS
SOXS
SOXS
Semis
TQQQ : AAPLA clear divergence is forming between AAPL, TQQQ, QQQ
July will be the High for NQ IMHO, it will see a large correction
beginning next week.
Semiconductor Sector has immense issues.
We could see a 20% decline in Tech as shortages will crimp
earnings as Input Prices are being rejected.
The NQ has the potential to make a new high, it must break
the Range posted earlier this morning or failure will occur.
A decline will be rapid, NQ always follows RTY.
NQ - Range for Friday 14976 will be important Level for OPEXWe are Neutral for Today, VX during Roll should continue to come under pressure.
Should the VX break 16.90 we could see a quick flush down to ~16.50s.
Ahead of Jackson Hole, there will be an effort to continue the Trend - which
remains Bullish for now. We anticipate a blow off ahead of VX roll.
The FED has a high probability of announcing tightening in varying forms - even
as the Commodities Complex is coming under duress - Lumber was off 7% yesterday.
Gamma for AAPL will play an important role for the large number of Calls purchased
when AAPL was trading 141s.
Bonds are pulling back ZN/ZB selloffs will provide a tailwind to Equities as will NQ Bank.
Opening Breadth on Friday's usually provides a solid trend, Friday's are generally NOT a
consolidation.
Bias is to Upside for Index Complex.16.68 and then 16.49. The VX is presently
trading -2.57% with the VX Curve in a well defined Contango.
15045.90 is the upper Limit should 14,976 be broken.
14.672.80 is the lower Limit for Today unless it breaks - 14,540.75 would be
lower Support.
NQ may well trade this entire range over the coming week into VX Settlement.
VXN will provide guidance as Support remains 19.15
AMD move to $82.00 and furtherGood entry for AMD for longterm, entered
hearing semis recovery coming, so AMD may move if semis starts to recover
TSM Opportunity along with Semiconductors.$TSM: Currently in a falling wedge pattern, demand zone at 103-109 has been key support for this name. Break above 114 with good volume/momentum will see this one move into the upper Fib extensions in the supply zone. Targets around 120-124 within the next 1-2 weeks. We are bullish on Semiconductors tactically with this inflationary climate. Setup is invalidated if it breaks/consolidates below 107.
3x ETF SOXL vs other 1x semi ETFs over various time horizonsI compare SOXL returns with SOXX, SMH, and PSI, all ETFs in the semiconductor space.
CONCLUSIONS AND FINDINGS:
YTD 2021 SOXL has not provided any net benefit over it's peers. And if you use stop loss orders you've probably lost money on it due to its extreme volatility. Smaller quant ETF fund PSI is the better performer on most/all time horizons YTD or more recent, especially from a risk/reward perspective. Only when comparing SOXL against the others on a time horizon of 1 yr or longer does SOXL outperform it's peers.
Importantly however, charts mimic real life only to the extent we make the purchase the entire position at once and don't touch it over the entire time frame. But this is not what most traders do. Thus, I recommend holding SOXL only if you're going to buy it and not set any stop loss orders, touch it, trade it, or even look at it for a year or more. But you probably can't handle that. I can't either. Thus the better, more realistic strategy for most traders is to get PSI or one of the other primary ETFs covering this space.
QCOM over 135.53The bottom looks in and a rally/retrace is possible over this recent resistance level from price action.
QCOM over 151.78Gap above, needs to put in a base after earnings reaction, likely to reject gap before starting to fill.
AMD over 95.00This has been a frustrating name to trade but I can't ignore the setup here. NVDA earnings this week could impact this either way.
TSM over 127.58After a nice climb TSM has pulled back and looks to be breaking from this descending channel. Entry over recent high shown here will confirm a breakout.
AMD over 88.72Shown here on the weekly view, it made a higher weekly high confirming a weekly breakout. Lots of eyes on this one and large order flow, 6th most bullish by volume on CheddarFlow with 195 orders totaling $25.2m. But as its been faking us out recently, a break over October's high to confirm a monthly breakout is a more conservative entry. Most institutional orders are for 12/18 strikes 85-90, or 12/15/21 strikes 95 and 100.
AMD ST short idea3H hanging man candle.
Trading range.
indicators divergence.
looking into selling call spread, buying $90 leg just in case trading range break so I can close my short leg.
TSMEarnings BMO tomorrow. Could trade down to $86.49 but it'll get bought up. Earnings should be priced in and the stock won't move
Breakdown of Semiconductors Simple view of this critical sector breaking through key technical trendlines.
Our first bearish sign was the break earlier in August, which held, and rallied back above the original broken trendline. That quickly stopped as momentum ran out, and it's now breaking through multiple trendlines with bulls at max long. This can potentially fall significantly given the overweight bullish positioning and the stretched overbought price.
Follow the dark pool money on $AMD to Glory!We have been steadily buying AMD for weeks as block after block of dark pool buy money pours in!
Recent dark pool blocks
imgur.com
They have been buying hand over fist. Given the initial Head and Shoulders bottom from March, the near term target would be the 161.8% target from that structure's extension.
Please like this post 👍🏻 and give me a follow! PM for more information on how to retrieve these dark pool blocks ⚫️ on demand and watch them stream in on all of your devices.
