Sensex
Sensex Expiry Analysis – 7th January 2025
Sensex Expiry Analysis – 7th January 2025
Market Sentiment:
Overall Bias: Slightly bearish with range-bound possibilities unless a breakout/breakdown occurs.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels: 78,000 (Immediate), 78,400 (Major).
Support Levels: 77,400 (Immediate), 77,200 (Critical).
Rationale for the Trade Setups:
Intraday Sell Setup:
A breakdown below 77,400 will trigger selling pressure, with targets at 77,200 and 77,000 due to high put writing and liquidity below.
Confidence Level: High, supported by FII/DII bearish positions and price action.
Intraday Buy Setup:
A breakout above 78,000 may trigger a gamma squeeze, with rapid movement toward 78,400 and 78,500 due to unwinding of call positions.
Confidence Level: Moderate, requires confirmation with volume.
Key Observations:
Option Chain Analysis:
Strong call writing at 78,000, making it a crucial resistance.
Heavy put writing at 77,400, indicating immediate support.
Implied Volatility (IV):
Slight increase (+2%), indicating expectations of higher volatility.
Gamma Squeeze Potential:
Above 78,000: Possible sharp upside move to 78,500.
Below 77,200: Potential downside acceleration to 77,000.
Execution Plan:
Buy Above 78,000: Wait for a 15-minute candle close above 78,000 with volume confirmation.
Sell Below 77,400: Enter on a clear breakdown below 77,400 with strong momentum.
Additional Notes:
Maintain tight stop-losses due to expiry-day volatility.
FIIs are net bearish in index futures; this reinforces the downside bias.
Range-bound expiry is possible if the index remains between 77,400-78,000.
Disclaimer:
The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or trading advice.Please consult with a certified financial advisor and use your discretion before making any trading decisions.
NIFTY : Critical Support Retested – Bank Nifty Adds Pressure !Title: 📊 NSE:NIFTY (₹23,644.90): Critical Support Retested – Bank Nifty Weakness Adds Pressure!
🔍 Market Overview:
Current Price: ₹23,644.90
Key Observation: NSE:NIFTY is hovering near the crucial support of ₹23,540 (previously held on Dec 20).
Breakdown Risk: If ₹23,540 fails to hold, expect a slide toward ₹23,300 and possibly ₹23,150.
Market Sentiment: The market remains in an oversold zone, signaling a potential technical bounce, but weakness dominates.
🛑 Impact of Bank Nifty Weakness:
NSE:BANKNIFTY Trend: Also showing signs of weakness, which adds downward pressure on Nifty50.
Key Correlation: Financials have a significant weight in Nifty50; Bank Nifty's weakness could accelerate Nifty's downside move.
📊 Support & Resistance Levels:
Support: ₹23,540 → ₹23,300 → ₹23,150
Resistance: ₹23,750 → ₹23,880 → ₹24,000
📈 Fibonacci Insights:
The Fibonacci retracement highlights ₹23,540 as a make-or-break level.
A bounce from here could see Nifty testing ₹23,750 as the first resistance level.
⚖️ Strategy:
For Traders:
Below ₹23,540 → Short with a target of ₹23,300, keeping a strict stop-loss near ₹23,750.
Above ₹23,750 → Look for intraday longs targeting ₹23,880–₹24,000.
For Investors:
Use dips around ₹23,300–₹23,150 to accumulate quality stocks for long-term investment.
⚠️ Key Risks:
Continued selling pressure in Bank Nifty can trigger sharper declines in Nifty50.
Global cues and FII activity remain critical for near-term direction.
Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered advisor. This analysis is purely for informational and educational purposes. Please consult a SEBI-registered financial advisor before making trading or investment decisions.
Why Sensex moves voilently todayMarkets are irrational, Always grab retailers money and give it to big Fish. Exactly this is what happened today.
Early morning market break all the way towards last Thursday range (consolidation zone) many people jump into short, then grab all the money at that point and reverse.
But many don't know why it reverse at that point. The reason is "Bullish Imbalance Structure" . Understand the market structure to save and earn money. Market always fill the imbalance level before take off. But don't know when it happen. Immediate or a week later .?
Portfolio and the Sensex Correction AnalysisMy personal Portfolio performance against the Indian markets, all with holding period of 1 year to 3 years. (No single stock in the portfolio taken with tips from others, brokers, TV. All research on my own, using Fundamental / Technical analysis learned over past 20 years of weekends).
This includes stocks sold, dividend received, no mutual funds included:
The portfolio has had a draw down of 7.5% from peak from 2 months ago to bottom 1 week ago which was a market correction of 11%
A lot of the Ideas i have been posting over the years on trading view platform were part of my portfolio, when i analyzed a stock i thought i should share. I stop sharing when i didn't have time or had personal issues.
I thought i should share my performance on the platform which has helped me analyse.
Portfolio-and-Sensex-after-recent-11-correctionMy personal Portfolio performance against the Indian markets, all with holding period of 1 year to 3 years. (No single stock in the portfolio taken with tips from others, brokers, TV. All research on my own, using Fundamental / Technical analysis learned over past 20 years of weekends).
This includes stocks sold, dividend received, no mutual funds included:
The portfolio has had a draw down of 7.5% from peak from 2 months ago to bottom 1 week ago, during which Sensex had a correction of 11%.
During correction, i sold weak stocks and accumulated strong ones at the 200d EMA support.
I used Tradingview for all my technical analysis and thought it right to share my performance on this platform.
I am a student of the stock market, i do not recommend, nor take recommendations . Best thing if you don't have the time to do research and the analysis or learn it, as it is a full time job, stick to mutual funds and that too SIP. Or take recommendation from only SEBI registered and experts analysts preferably a authorised portfolio manager.
Disclaimer: i have never recommended stocks, all part of my educational purpose and sharing my analysis for feedback purposes only.
FinNifty Support and Resistance Levels For 21st Nov 2024I’ve created a chart highlighting the key support and resistance levels for #finnifty, designed to help traders make informed decisions.
These levels provide critical insights for understanding potential price movements, enabling traders to identify ideal entry and exit points.
Use these levels to gain a clearer perspective on Sensex trends and optimize your trades with greater confidence.
Remember, these levels serve as guidance, so always combine them with your own analysis and risk management.
Sensex Support and Resistance Levels For 21st Nov 2024I’ve created a chart highlighting the key support and resistance levels for #sensex, designed to help traders make informed decisions.
These levels provide critical insights for understanding potential price movements, enabling traders to identify ideal entry and exit points.
Use these levels to gain a clearer perspective on Sensex trends and optimize your trades with greater confidence.
Remember, these levels serve as guidance, so always combine them with your own analysis and risk management.
BankNifty Support and Resistance Levels For 21st Nov 2024I’ve created a chart highlighting the key support and resistance levels for #BankNifty, designed to help traders make informed decisions.
These levels provide critical insights for understanding potential price movements, enabling traders to identify ideal entry and exit points.
Use these levels to gain a clearer perspective on Sensex trends and optimize your trades with greater confidence.
Remember, these levels serve as guidance, so always combine them with your own analysis and risk management.
Nifty Support and Resistance Levels For 21st Nov 2024I’ve created a chart highlighting the key support and resistance levels for #Nifty, designed to help traders make informed decisions.
These levels provide critical insights for understanding potential price movements, enabling traders to identify ideal entry and exit points.
Use these levels to gain a clearer perspective on Sensex trends and optimize your trades with greater confidence.
Remember, these levels serve as guidance, so always combine them with your own analysis and risk management.
FinNifty Support and Resistance Levels For 14th Nov 2024I’ve created a chart highlighting the key support and resistance levels for #finnifty, designed to help traders make informed decisions.
These levels provide critical insights for understanding potential price movements, enabling traders to identify ideal entry and exit points.
Use these levels to gain a clearer perspective on Sensex trends and optimize your trades with greater confidence.
Remember, these levels serve as guidance, so always combine them with your own analysis and risk management.