NIFTY: Wave C started - updated target of 10400Wave C appears to have started after the completion of wave B at 10894 - very close to the predicted level of 10850 (see below). Wave C could go down to 10400 if Wave C achieves equality with Wave A or to 10070 if Wave C is 1.62 times Wave A. I will update the targets after the completion of wave 2 of C.
Note: This is just for my own future reference and is not a trading advice.
Prediction of 10850 level on May 27 and June 7:
Sensex
RHFL - Time to accumulateRHFL
CMP 68.50
TARGET 82
STOP 57
1) Price structure has a sort of H&S pattern suggesting reversal of trend.
2) Price has broken past the resistance zone of 65-67 with heavy volumes.
3) Serious buying with heavy volumes observed in few trading sessions during the consolidation zone (51-67) in the past one month.
4) Price pattern also has a RdB structure with the right leg of RdB beginning to take place.
5) Stock performing better than the overall broader index as seen from relative strength indicator which is sloping upwards and which also has given a breakout, indicating big money going flowing into this stock.
6) RSI has given a breakout. Indicates momentum building up.
SENSEX Index Another Topping Formation DevelopingSENSEX INDEX India
This is another index that looks like it's topping out for the summer.
The great bull campaign from the 2009 low at 8075 to a high at
36370 over 9 years is in its final stages. Echoes of the Dax here.
A break below 34291 will trigger a short opportunity here back to
32516 where it should attempt to bounce - but it won't get far
when it does. And once it breaks below here it should start to
fall away in stages to 31096 then 29169 where it should
bounce harder.
If at any point over the summer 29169 gives way to bears it
should fall harder still 25772 and when that breaks to 22577.
A series of potential short opportunities here all summer long. Be lucky.
Colgate Palmolive - A real technical bullish gem.Weekly Chart
CMP 1257
Expected target 1260 + (1200-800) = 1660 plus
Stop : Trail 30 weeks ema, currently at 1080.
1) The stock has broken past the small consolidation zone (W pattern) and also the broader consolidation zone with huge volumes.
2) Relative Strength with respect to broader index indicates serious money flowing into the stock.
3) RSI has been in the bullish zone (> 50) and has been entering into the overbought zone more frequently, meaning, buying happening at all retracements.
SENSEX INDEX PRICED IN TERMS OF GOLDThe chart of Sensex index in terms of gold.
It don't give a long history, only 11 years.
I ran this chart to answer a specific question;
Will a nuclear war happen?
At least, will India participate in such thing?
A country with booming market reflect a very positive social mood will not engage in a war.
I don't have long enough historic data to get the big picture (at least 20 years of data.)
As the chart show:
1) We have a double bottom and a support line, and
2) A triangle on the right side of the chart.
These tow things suggest that Sensex index and the Indian market as a hall will boom (in terms of gold) in the coming years, hence India will not go to war.
SORILHOLD - W PATTERN BULLISH BREAKOUTSORILHOLD
CMP 294
Target 370 plus
Stop 245
Weekly Chart
Stock has formed a W pattern breakout.
NIFTY - AT A CRUCIAL SPOT.Nifty 10459
Weekly Chart analysis
1) Long term resistance turned support zone at 10300 - 10350 levels.
2) 30 week ema at 10285-10300 levels.
3) A potential H & S pattern INCOMPLETE set up observed. Left Shoulder and Head complete; however Right Shoulder may or may not happen. If index breaks 10285-10300 levels right shoulder would be completed. This means that Index would be below long term resistance turned support, 30 week ema and neckline of H&S. The next support would be at 9680-9700.
4) Number of stocks below 30 ema is at 31 out of 50, meaning 62% of nifty stocks trading below 30 ema.
5) NHNL indicator also has broken the trendline support (not shown here).
Conclusion : If nifty breaks below 10285, it is time to go short nifty / nifty related stocks with 30 week trailing ema as stops and exits.
CHOLAMANDALAM INV & FINANCE - BULLISH CHANNEL BREAKOUTCMP 1452
Target 1800 plus
Stop 1200
1) Stock has witnessed an upward channel breakout with huge volumes.
2) Relative strength upward sloping indicating stock experiencing specific buying vis-a-vis market.
3) Stock has the potential to reach 1800 plus which is the long term resistance zone.