Sensexanalysis
The India bubbleDisclaimer: My charts reflect my own analysis and opinions which could be wrong; do not take anything here as investment advice because it is not.
I've been watching the Nifty and Sensex indices for a while, noticing their absolutely insane. Since 2004 the Nifty has run over 1200%. Even in the best scenarios, these moves eventually come to an end and have to correct to at least some degree, because such growth cannot be sustained indefinitely.
What caught my attention was not just the sheer gains but what in my eyes look like the same identifiable sections that nearly every market cycle forms which I have labeled in this chart. Note: I'm aware that my eyes may be deceiving me, but this is what I feel that I see. And the fact that there is a massive bearish divergence on RSI, the stochastic, and the macd, on the monthly time frame, supports my suspicion. Not to mention the Adani group news that broke right at what I believe is the top, to catalyze a move down.
SENSEX (S&P BSE Sensex) Index Analysis 07/04/2021as earlier we had predicted an other impulsive wave for better shorting position and we shorted it at 50363
Fundamentals:
as we know the system is Forcing the Covid-19 Vaccination to the public so it requires to reshut the country for showing it some seriousness and let the Culprit capitalists gets more capitalize and some Retail Section to loos on some positions.
we are facing another lockdown and it will effect the economy and it stimulate the market to make some retracements.
Technical Analysis:
now we are getting our Bearish Divergence with MACDs confirmation with the Head Fall of the Bullish rally and retest of the immediate Support we can now specify 4 Targets by Fibonacci Retracement.
these 4 Targets are having strong confluences with the certain levels in Price Action analysis.
we can target the 3 TP as soon as we the 2TP gets Trigged followed by some retracement and Distribution
BSE sensex hi there market is on a confusion area thats why i want to wait for level to reach. i am a reactive not predictive. but at this current situation market need a pullback to grab some liquidity and for this market need to go down. my all areas are shown for reactive market. wait for it. and i inform all the major news for this areas
Sensex off to 45000 by March 2021Bears must have been happy to see the rising wedge formation all this while when the V shaped recovery resumed to claim the former top but cooled off at ~39500. The rising wedge formation did validate for a while and shared the target of ~34500 from a 'measured move' perspective. Note the divergence from the RSI while it tends to form a falling wedge which is the only caution this time.
But hey, bulls are back. So I suspect the possible H&S pattern as a trend 'reversal indicator' in formation turning sentiment from bearish/neutral to bullish and once the right shoulder forms completely (give or take 3 months) we would enter to claim new ATH most likely before April 2021.
45000 Sensex is incoming!
SENSEX is Falling 01/02/2021as we can see
we have bearish Divergence with MACD Signal and MACD Histogram and it is at the end of a bullish trend which is happening post corona Pandemic and it can be interpreted as trend reversal and Distribution time
now it can be the time for some correction and retraces
we have analyzed the daily Timeframe and used Price Action Strategy to find the accumulation zones
these areas are also having confluences with Fibonacci retracement levels which are good areas to target or enter
we may have a small bullish Spike but the overall scenario is bearish from now onwards
BSE Sensex Positional (1-Hour Timeframe) Trading IndicatorPeriod: 04/02/2009 to 20/07/2020.
No. of Points: 1,04,403.
No. of Trades: 674.
% Profitable: 52.37%.
Profit Factor: 1.732
Points per trades: 154.90
No. of lots: 2 (1 lot is partially booked after 750 points which can be customized and remaining 1 lot is in trade until the trend is reversed).
NIFTY 50 long term ViewFrom Current date 18th July Nifty at 10900 +
Step 1: Nifty will retrace 78.6% till 11377.75.
Step 2: To form a Head, NIFTY will fall from 11377.75 to 8800 level.
Step 3: Nifty will then form another shoulder on the right.
Step 4: Nifty breaks below 8800 and falls down to 6225-6350 level which is a big support level.
SENSEX rally finally coming to an end?See the reaction at the lower line on the rising wedge. Once we break down we have two targets on the chart. A better entry could be the top of the wedge if you would like to sweeten the Risk-Reward ratio. I believe we will make a lower low. This rally doesn't make much sense and at these levels, I much rather be sitting in cash rather than hoping that the bubble will go on.