Sentimentalanalysis
Gold rolling down on dollar positive SentimentFurther to the positive news on new administration in white house in terms of Vaccination plan, Stimulus and employment; USD is gaining and recovering the lose and bringing hope for investor to again counting on the most valuable currency in the world. Therefore, Gold is in the long term down trend channel which was already predicted in previous ideas.
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Gold Rally with strong momentum! After weeks of dollar gain in market, by confirming new administration in US and hopes for stimulus by new treasury secretory in White house, dollar started weakening since Wednesday and Gold with other valuable metals went on a high momentum rally after that. This rally crossed $1850 resistance zone and then passing long term down trend to move forward through $1900 resistance zone. Traders know that high momentum mostly will ended up with cycle change. Therefore better to wait to see the reaction after touching next resistance zone.
Will the daily downward trend of gold be broken ?!Due to two similar Movements in recent weeks, the price has approached the ceiling of the Downtrend channel and we expect to see the descending for Gold against the Dollar by any positive news near the New Year.
Of course, we know that the negative news and statistics of Pandemic continue and the stimulus has already left its effects on the market. Therefore, if there is no positive news from the United States (such as the decline in the Pandemic rate), the dollar may continue to weaken against gold.
Gold is still in a downward trend?!In recent weeks and months after the historic peak of gold prices in last August, the precious metal seems to be in a long-term downward trend. Although this been accompanied by the decline of the dollar index, but attention to the eastern markets, as well as new valuable assets such as crypto, have prevented the price of Gold from rising further and in the long run the power of sellers has increased.
However, since last week, following the rise of the Covid_19 and the unfavorable statement of US Economy in employment statistics, the number of buyers has increased so far.
Therefore, we expect that with the confirmation of the Stimulus before the end of this week, Gold price will reach its peak in the range of $ 1900. But then, after hitting the upper edge of the downtrend channel, return to its descend cycle. However, no confirmation has yet been announced on the approval of the stimulus.
Gold bearish movement might be ended up soon?From last 2 weeks, Gold was is in a bearish movement in daily channel due to the Politic hopes and stimulus doubts which all were supporting dolor in the chart. But this movement is getting weaker and the stronger Gold demands showing up. Probably in the next coming days, we will be facing hopes on confirming stimulus and Biden support for Market development, which will raise the equity in market and will be against dolor value. However still we are facing the weakness in Gold and it may continue for a short time at least.
Another gain for this week!Further to my previous analysis, Gold kept falling till 1775 and we could gain 275pips more.
Cheers!
Gold still is following the bearish movement? Isn't? We had an strong bearish movement this week. Which guided us to be a Gold seller, but since yesterday morning the price reached to the 1800$ zone. This is a long term resistance and perhaps we will face bullish pullback even countable for long position in a day trading. But, the strong tendency of descent and the main cycle might not be changed in following days.
What do you think?
Wow! 400pips in a first day of the weekAs published before, Gold is in the bearish channel which heated the middle line. so cheers for those who followed us.
The Bearish daily channel seems more stronger!As the daily timeframe shows, gold entered a long-term bearish channel after hitting a record high above $2,000 ($2080) in August, trying to break the channel and create a cycle with pre #us_election tensions. However after dealing with the #Channel_boundry and with the positive and statistical news regarding the production of #vaccine against #covid_19, we saw the sellers with the stronger power. Meanwhile, the case of the US presidency seems to be closing, therefore the expectation of investors to return to the growing market could further increase the power of the #dollar against #gold.
Now it remains to be seen whether in its corrective move and after hitting the tense zone of $ 1890-1910, it will continue the strong #daily downtrend, or again the disappointing news of #Corona, pushing the market towards #risk_averse and buying gold against the dollar. Will it leads?!
Gold seems to be more valuable than dollar. Isn't it?Conservative Investors will not do much of Risk in this time! Means that Gold will be more valuable than investment for coming days when we don't know who will be the President of USA in 2020. Also Gold was already in the bullish rally which can be supported till 1910$ atleast.
EURUSD SELLTechnical Analysis; EU at Resistance level and we expect to spike down to levels below 1.1800
Fundamentals; Euro has had spiked up on the positive German Manufacturing numbers, USD is at a critical point before the US Elections and has been on its low levels a rebound to risk-off may suffice.
Sentimentals; The levels of 1.1800-1.1900 have previously been sell areas for traders due to previous EU leadership intervention comments on these levels.
GBPNZD keep slipping against the Trend line?!When crossed the bullish trend line, continued the slipping till the last week ended and jumped to the below center line of the bullish channel.
Seems that supply is more stranger than demands and sellers imposed their power in the market. If the situation remains the same, GBP will drop till the down side channel line or even more. Unless this week starts with the news supporting pound price.
New Bullish movement appearsIn along term slightly bullish movement appears. However in a weekly move seems to gain stronger momentum.
GBPNZD seems to start another bearish movementAfter reaching to the top resistance zone, going in to the bearish channel.
Gold is stocked in a triangle pattern After breaking bullish channel (which was started from last week September) with a sharp bearish movement last week, price seems to shape a triangle that is between resistance zone on top and bullish trend on down. We don't see much difference between supply and demands that will guide us to wait till buyer or seller shown up with the stronger weight in market.
Weekly Market recap 4: We need patience hereThe glimpse of optimism
The market got back to the explicit state of the "certain uncertainty". You can see that the H&S pattern in DXY failed to push the USD higher. DXY couldn't even hold above the key 94.00 level for a considerable time.
The sentiment shifted from risk aversion to some hints of optimism as S&P500 managed to recover from the correction and even came close to all-time highs. Brent oil made a fake breakout of the 39.00 level showing signs of strengths as it's still consolidating near the key level 44.00.
AUD has been the weakest risk-asset currency recently. Even though it showed attempts to resume the long-term uptrend as optimism grew.
When things get blur
For the last week, the market has been digesting the gains from optimism as S&P500 and AUDUSD pulled back while DXY recovered from recent losses. Brent oil behaves remarkably, however. I cannot really see any obvious relationship of it with stocks and currencies for now; it's just consolidating. The market state is pretty vague at this point. I assume the trigger to the new wave of volatility may come from Brent. The closure above the 44.00 level can hint the bearish sentiment for DXY and attempts to advance below 39.00 can push the DXY higher.
If it's too gloomy, get rid of AUD
Among risk assets, AUD has been the weakest recently. On the AUDUSD chart, you can see the failed attempt to go above MA(50). If it breaks 0.7000, the chances are high that the long-term uptrend is finished. For some reason, AUD pairs have had quite a smooth price action recently, which implies the inflow of liquidity or the general agreement on the direction of the currency. Looks like it is "in-play".
I would consider shorting AUD if the global sentiment shifts more towards safe-heavens.
All in all, it's a good time to be patient now and look for the confirmation signs of the sentiment shift. The technical picture tells that currencies have been in the range for a considerable time already. The longer it stays like this, the more interesting the proceeding trend will be. The most important here is patience. Everything can change very quickly, and traders need to be ready for this.
Looks like a new cycle of range almost started.The price has become in a long-term range after exiting an uptrend channel(previously announced), which comes from the positive news of the Brexit negotiations and the influx of pound demands, means that will pushing hard to bullish and reach to higher zone. Of course, any disappointing news from these negotiations may bring the price back to the lower range.
Still short position is much safer Further to the stronger demands on selling Pound in market and based on the resistance target meet, seems to have more chance of short positions up to first supply zone which might change the market balance after.
NZDUSD seems to be stronger in demandThe first step of demand has been so strong that it has crossed the resistance zone and after that with a weak pullback, seems to have a second rally to reach to the second zone. However fundamental news telling that stock market is getting worst which might push the equities to the safe currencies like #dollar.
$AUDJPY #AUDJPY - if buyers break 75 they could push it to 76Newsflow is mixed (California shutdowns could lead to more states following suit vs Moderna vaccine progess)
AUDJPY has been correlating heavily with the stock indices (US30/NAS100/SPX500) as they both are highly based upon risk on (up) vs risk off (down) market sentiment.
I don't want to bet against the stock market (yet) and I've been flaky on directional bias on this pair because of the volatile risk sentiment flows & this 75 level but I think sellers of this pair with stoplosses above 75.00 could get punished similarly to how the stock index sellers have gotten punished in the past few months.
I like the risk/reward ratio as well because my intraday SL is only 25 pips (74.75) giving me 1:1/1:2/1:3/1:4 intraday profit targets (75.25/75.50/75.75/76.00)
from a longer term trade POV im really eyeing this 75.00 major quarter point price level & I would want a better feel on risk sentiment before making a long term bet on this pair. I would much rather talk to you at the end of of July going into August to see how this stupid virus develops and how things play out before betting on where risk flows will go in these current market conditions. (As well as to see if we can make a new Q3 high on the currency pair)
7PM-7:30 EST going into Asian Session volatility about to pick up as I'm writing this & I would definitely want price above that 75.00 price level 12 hours from now @ 7 AM est & going into tomorrows NY Stock Exchange Open around 9-10 AM EST for me to still consider this trade valid & in an ideal situation either book profits or scale in depending on the scenario (potentially both)
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