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Nvidia - How high is too high?Nvidia (NVDA) continues to defy gravity, hitting $140 in pre-market trading today. This translates to: A 23% increase in June alone A 55% increase in Q2 A staggering 184% increase since the beginning of the year A 225% year-to-date (YTD) surge These are the kinds of figures we've come to expect from Nvidia, making even impressive YTD gains of 27% by companies like Microsoft look pedestrian. Nvidia's rise has also propelled it to the top of the market cap rankings, becoming the world's most valuable publicly traded company. The Question of Sustainability The burning question is, can this growth be sustained? So far, Nvidia has the numbers to back it up. The company has already generated more EBITDA this year than in all of FY2023. While its Price/Earnings Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.55 suggests a slight overvaluation, and has been increasing steadily for a year, it remains below the PEG ratios of multi-trillion-dollar peers like Microsoft and Apple. Technical Indicators Flashing Green The technical indicators also paint a bullish picture. The stock is well above its short-, mid-, and long-term moving averages, indicating strong momentum. The recent surge in volume further confirms heightened investor interest. The Bias and Sentiment Strength (BASS) Indicator, a composite tool created by @mattzab combining several technical indicators, also flashes a strong buy signal for Nvidia. (For a detailed explanation, see this page: ). The Road Ahead: Smooth Sailing or Bumpy Ride? The big question is whether we'll see a soft landing, a minor pullback, or a significant dip. This will depend on how many investors decide to take profits and the speed at which they do so. A rapid sell-off would likely be triggered by a sudden collapse in the "AI hype" or if companies find themselves unable to effectively utilize their new AI chips, or their efforts to capitalize on LLMs fail. It's still early days in the AI boom, but parallels have already been drawn with the dot-com bubble which many investors are old enough to remember. It took Apple more than 5 years after the crash to reach its dot-com peak, and Microsoft needed more than 14 years. While there is no looking back for these stocks now, one shouldn't forget that Cisco, which was regarded as a crucial internet infrastructure provider at the turn of the century, never reached its dotcom peak again. But then again, past market crashes do not guarantee future losses, or how did the saying go again? For now, the status quo remains: everyone is bullish as long as everyone else is bullish as well. As always, stay vigilant out there!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by WHSelfInvest
Macro Monday 38 ~ The EU & German ZEW Economic Sentiment IndexMacro Monday 38 The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index & The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Released this Tuesday 19th Mar 2024) ZEW is the German acronym for the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, which translates to the Centre for European Economic Research. There are two releases from the Centre for European Economic research we will cover today both being released this coming Tuesday; 1. The Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 25 for Feb 2024) 2. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (Reading of 19.9 for Feb 2024) EURO AREA ZEW INDEX This index is derived from 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the overall European Area. They include economists and analysts from different countries in the Eurozone that are using the Euro as their currency (20 countries out of the 27 members). In summary, while the EU ZEW index provides a broader perspective for the entire eurozone than the German ZEW Index discussed below, the exact methodology for distributing the surveys and their apportionment across individual countries within the eurozone is not explicitly disclosed. Historically, this index has proven very useful as a leading indicator of sentiment for the European Economy and it is closely monitoring for gauging economic sentiment in the EU by market participants. EURO AREA ZEW CHART - SUBJECT CHART ABOVE How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the EU chart is 21.39 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 25 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 month The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -60 in Sept 2022 to +25 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory to just above the historical average of the chart which is 21.39. GERMAN ZEW INDEX The German ZEW Index data is not derived from all the countries in Europe, it is derived from the views of collection of 350 economists and analysts that operate from and represent the German economy. As Germany is the largest economy within the Euro Area, its performance significantly impacts the overall region and this this metric could be considered the economic sentiment spearhead of Europe. Germany is also the 4th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP. As of 2023, its nominal GDP stands at approximately $4.43 trillion. This index could be monitored as a measure of not only European sentiment but as an important global sentiment gauge. GERMAN ZEW INDEX CHART How to read the chart The index ranges from -100 (pessimism) to +100 (optimism). 0 is neutral however the historical average reading for the German ZEW chart is 20.79 which is the point where the red area meets the green area on the chart. We show on the chart if we are above or below the average levels of optimism. The current reading of 19.9 indicates current optimism among analysts for the next 6 months, however we are below the historical average of 20.79 thus a definitive move above this level this coming Tuesday could be a confirmation step into potential sustained optimism. The Trend Sentiment made a recovery from -61 in Sept 2022 to +19.9 in Feb 2024. We have moved from deep in negative sentiment territory into positive numbers but we are not above the historic average of 20.79 yet. Lets see how both perform this coming Tuesday. The beauty of these charts is that you can review both on my Trading View at any stage, press play and it will update with the most recent release. This way you will have a full explainer of what this dataset is and can keep yourself up to date on its direction with the color coded map, the average line and the neutral line, all of which will at a glance give you a good indication of where we stand in terms of trend and sentiment. I'll keep you informed here too Thanks for coming along PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUESI
by PukaCharts
commodities high conviction entry in FebLooking back, commodities had a high conviction in february based on a longterm trend. Combining macd and BB break out. Markets have either risk-on sentiment or defensive. During risk-on phase people want to put money to work, there is too much money. During risk-off or defensive, people want money and safety. Assets become too expensive. Bitcoin rallies during risk-on phases. Oil or gold can be either risk-on and risk-off . Markets are fascinating. Faang can be a risk-on and risk-off, till everything becomes too expensive to have. Markets leave clues. and they move on cycles. It makes sense why commodities are risk-off . Small caps usually are risk-on (when economy does well, there are no global conflicts; ie the future is BRIGHT). More concerns move the weight to risk-off , ie markets are a weighing machine longterm. People tend to be stuck in one mood or another, and it's tough to adjust? markets can change gears quickly.
AMEX:DJP
by citsvar
MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ U.S. NFIB Business Optimism Index MACRO MONDAY 33 ~ NFIB National Federation of Independent Business Index (NFIB) Released Tuesday 13th Feb 2024 Think of the NFIB small business index as a sentiment index, a sort of mood meter for small businesses. The higher the index, the more optimistic small businesses will be about spending more, expanding and increasing or maintaining employees. The NFIB is the nation’s largest small business advocacy group, with more than 600,000 members from all 50 states. Members are typically small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). These small businesses account for roughly 50% of the nation's private workforce and contribute to 44% of all U.S. economic activity making them an extremely important cohort to monitor and survey for economic purposes. The NFIB Index data The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (chart data) is a composite of ten seasonally adjusted components calculated based on the answers of around 620 of the NFIB members. The survey questions cover various aspects of business sentiment, such as hiring plans, sales expectations, capital expenditure plans, and overall economic outlook. The Index figure is derived from all the survey responses, weighted and aggregated to produce a composite score that reflects the sentiment and economic outlook of small business owners. Baseline Level (100): The baseline level of 100 is often considered the neutral point on the NFIB Index. An index value of 100 indicates that small business owners are neither optimistic nor pessimistic about economic conditions. Values above 100 indicate optimism, while values below 100 indicate pessimism. On the chart below I note the relevance of the sub 91.5 level as a breach of this level has historically preceded or coincided with recessions (grey areas). The Chart The chart is fairly straightforward in that the green zone illustrates the optimistic zone (>100), the pessimistic zone is orange (<100) and the recession zone is red (<91.5). At present we are moving out of recessionary territory into the pessimism zone which is an improvement but we are a long way from the neutral level of 100. Expectations for Tuesdays release is a slight move higher towards 92.4. If we do move to 92.4 it will be the highest level recorded since June 2022. NFIB Negative Divergences Here is a supplemental chart that illustrates how the NFIB small business sentiment index has presented clear negative divergences against the S&P 500 during the last three recessions. In addition to the negative divergences, thereafter the following trigger events marked the beginning of thee significant drawdown events of each recession; 1⃣ The NFIB index breached below the 100 level in Oct 2000 prior to the Dot. Com Crash 2⃣ The NFIB index breached below the 91.5 index level in April 2008 prior to the GFC capitulation event 3⃣ The NFIB index breached both the 100 (Mar 2020) and 91.5 (Apr 2020) index level during the COVID Crash. In summary the negative divergences signaled the initial warning signs of recessions, thereafter losing key levels such as the 100 level and 91.5 level signaled the main draw down event initiation. Not all negative divergences resulted in a recession or poor price action and not all recessions came about after a breach of the 100 level however, both in combination add weight to the probability (but no guarantee's). This chart should not be viewed in isolation but should be added to our other charts to help gauge the likelihood of negative and positive outcomes. At present the small cap 2000 index is significantly under performing other stock indices which are breaking past all time highs. The small cap 2000 TVC:RUT adds weight to the struggling smaller businesses in the U.S. when combined with the under performing pessimistic reading of the NFIB small business index. A significantly positive reading on the NFIB could be a leading signal that small caps could start to perform again, catching up with the other indices. A negative reading might suggest the small caps 2000 will continue to lag and struggle. Lets see how we fair on Tuesday for the release of January 2024's survey results PUKA Lets see how we fair on Tuesday for the release of January 2024's survey results PUKA
ECONOMICS:USBOI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 40 - Euro Area Composite PMI Macro Monday 40 Euro Area Composite PMI (Released this Thurs 4thApril 2024) The Euro Area Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a significant coincident economic indicator that provides insights into the current overall health of the eurozone economy. The Euro Area Composite PMI data is collected from a representative panel of around 5,000 manufacturing and services firms around the EU and then a weighted average of the two is provided to create the composite reading. This index tracks variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories, and prices. Very similar to the US PMI that we previously covered. The Chart The chart illustrates the following metrics; 🟢Manufacturing PMI (green line) 🔴Services PMI (red line) 🔵Overall composite PMI (Thick Blue Line) The green zone (>50) illustrates the economic expansion zone and the red area illustrates the economic contraction zone (<50). The 50 level itself is neutral. Now, let’s very briefly cover the last three weeks of Macro Mondays No. 38, 39 & todays 40. These all featured the Eurozone economic health and can be valuable metrics to remain informed on. With a click of my charts in trading view you can remain updates with a visual easy on the eye. EU Current Sentiment Outlook (negative but improving) 1.The Euro Area Economic Sentiment Index is based on current sentiment surveys from EU Businesses and consumers for all 27 EU Member States. -The current economic outlook as distinguished by businesses and consumers in the EU is currently below average at 96.3 (<100 is below average and >100 is above average). - We have seen an improvement since Sept 2023 with an increase from 93.4 to 96.3 at present but remain in the negative. EU Forward Looking Sentiment (Firmly Positive) 2.The Euro Area ZEW Economic Index is a 6 month forward looking economists outlook for 20 of the 27 Euro Member states. -The ZEW Index is anticipating optimistic economic conditions for the coming 6 months with a current reading of 33.5 which is well above the historical average of 21.39 on the chart. Economists in then EU see things improving over the coming two quarters. EU Manufacturing and Services current performance composite (Neutral - leaning negative) 3.Featured today, the Euro Area Composite PMI is a coincident indicator offering real-time health of the Eurozone economy through data collected from manufacturing and services firms. -The Euro Area Composite PMI is currently close to neutral at 49.9 (just under the neutral 50 line) demonstrating that over the recent month we have been in marginal contraction in the EU according to the manufacturing/services composite. - However, if we look at the individual Manufacturing PMI we can clearly see we are in negative/contractionary territory at 45.7 (green line) whilst the services PMI is rising into expansionary territory at 51.1 (red line). This is common theme in the US PMI at present also with services performing better than manufacturing sector. The beauty of these charts is that you can go onto my TradingView Page and press update, and the chart will update you with all these metrics, informing you at a glance with how these metrics are performing collectively with a nice visual guide. Thanks again for coming along and I hope this additional Eurozone chart helps you in your current and future understandings of EU Economic Sentiment, Forward looking economists sentiment and how manufacturing and services firms are feeling overall. Bottom line is, economic sentiment appears to be leaning optimistic for the immediate future, however we await more readings for a conclusive trend direction from the coincident indicators, the ZEW Index and the Euro Area PMI index. PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUCOMPPMI
by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 39 (Part B) - Predictive Power (EU ZEW Vs EU ESI)Macro Monday 39 (Part B) This chart is a summary of the past two weeks of work in Macro Mondays on the EU Sentiment The Chart illustrates the forward looking Euro Area ZEW Sentiment Index (red line) and the current sentiment outlook via the Euro Area Economic Sentiment Index (the "ESI", the blue line). In the chart I have used thick orange lines to illustrate when the forward looking ZEW Index moved negative ahead of the ESI Index. I have used thick green lines to inform of us of when the ZEW Index moved into optimism ahead of the ESI Index. The Chart demonstrates that the ZEW Index is actually a moderately decent forward looking indicator. Hats off to those 350 economists that complete the surveys in the ZEW Index. Whilst it has been great at providing some leads, the ZEW Index is not always accurate and does not always offer the correct lead direction however historically we can see that it certainly has had predictive power at certain junctures and thus its a useful data set to monitor for EU sentiment. ▫️ At present the forward looking ZEW Index has moved into optimism whilst the current outlook via the ESI is in pessimism. ▫️ If the ZEW Index gets above the 38-42 level, it would really help concrete the sentiment shift to optimism. This is not disregarding the fact we are firmly in positive forward looking sentiment territory already. Historically there have been many rejections lower from this 38 -42 level, thus getting above it would be a real conclusive move. Furthermore, the ESI is at 95.4, if the above were to occur with a move above 38 - 42 on the ZEW Index and the ESI was to move above 100 into positive territory, we could really start to lean firmly positive for the present and into the future. The beauty of this chart is that you can go onto my TradingView Page and press update, and the chart will update you with both metrics, informing you at a glance with how these metrics are performing collectively with a nice visual guide. Thanks again for coming along and I hope this chart helps you in your current and future understandings of EU Economic Sentiment, which is an important global economic lead. Bottom line is, economic sentiment appears to be leaning optimistic for the immediate future, however we await more readings for a conclusive trend direction. PUKA
ECONOMICS:EUESI
by PukaCharts
Weekly Update: Dead Bears are Starting to Stink up the JointThe last couple months have been challenging if you were bearish on the markets. However, recently it seems one by one, all the bearish analysts and money managers are now issuing their mea culpas, and are quickly embracing the bullish market perspective. I am no different. I made the mistake of allowing my analytical bias to remain front and center for too long within this move off the October 2022 lows. Its obvious now that I have the benefit of hindsight. When the ES advanced past 4208.50 in late May and subsequently went straight up, I should have been open to higher levels. Now the SP Futures are within 5% of their all-time highs. This post is not an attempt to justify my past perspectives post May. If I am to be 100% objective, the probabilities do favor bears now more so than any time in the past 10 Months. Let me explain. Our decline from the January 2022 highs surprised most market watchers. My scan of perspectives of in January 2022 timeframe yielded most we’re expecting a minor decline, only to the 4300-4400 level. The 3500 level was a surprise to nearly all. Currently most market watchers have remained cautious to outright bearish since October 2022, and are now surprised. Myself included. But we should expect a decline now. The question should be to what magnitude. Bears can dwell on the inverted yield curve, the potential for a recession, the unprecedented interest rate escalation and to what end? The markets continue to advance in the face of unparalleled uncertainty. Side Note: Do the markets like uncertainty now? LOL As an Elliottition, I can say we are at the end of a wave count now. That doesn’t mean we can’t extend higher. It also doesn’t mean we won’t hit new all-time highs later in the year. But even in the bullish scenario, we’re at a top. Of what magnitude I cannot say because this retracement will give us the answers we need to come to that conclusion. The various pathways are outlined in the above chart. However, what drives the market is the prevailing investor sentiment of market participants. Below you will see a chart of investor sentiment. ycharts.com We have recently hit a high in sentiment where declines soon follow. So, I think it’s prudent to keep in eye on sentiment in conjunction with the market price machinations. Lastly where as the Nasdaq had led the way up off last years low, I ask is the Nasdaq about to led us in the decline? The Nasdaq looks to have a high probability, low risk set up to the downside. Sure, the set-up can be invalidated…but in my opinion, we’re so close to the recent highs that the risk can be controlled with stops. Whereas, this set up could easily yield a 1,000-point decline vs a couple hundred-point advance, determined by one’s risk appetite. I have issued my mea culpa. It’s time to get back to being objective; and to be 100% objective we should soon expect a tradeable decline with some meat on the bones for the Bears. After which, we can assess the possibility of new all-time highs, or something even more ominous to the downside.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
EURCHF - Consolidation opportunityAfter a significant downtrend from 1.20 down to below 1.00, the EURCHF pair is now consolidating on the daily timeframe. Similarly, the Sentiment Index at the bottom is consolidating. Both these consolidations mean that the pressure is increasing and ultimately the pair will break either to the upside (trend reversal) or to the downside (trend continuation). The opportunity now is to trade the pair within the consolidation considering it's very large and clearly identifiable. Remember to stay patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators!
by a.b
Possible SELL opportunity on CADJPYThe CADJPY pair might offer soon an interesting sell opportunity assuming a trend continuation scenario. After a recent uptrend, the pair is currently moving between a major resistance (downward pressure) and a major support (upward pressure) with the latest move being a significant downtrend. A SELL opportunity might form if: The Breakout Pivotal Bars turn bearish (candles colored in red) in the blue circle at the top The RSI Exhaustion becomes Bullish Exhausted (RSI line gets colored in green) in the blue circle at the bottom (around 50) If instead, the pair starts to consolidate around the current level (moving pretty much sideways), the subsequent scenario might turn to the bullish side. Either way, remember to do your analysis, be patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators.
by a.b
META: downtrend continuation or reversal?META is down almost 60% in the last year and it looks like there are two possible outcomes from here. Bullish scenario: The current pattern is generally bullish and typically anticipates a significant trend reversal. The Sentiment Index indicator shows a weakening in the Bearish Sentiment which could indicate that a more bullish sentiment could come next. Bearish scenario: The price is currently pushed down by two major resistances and any bull attempt must be able to break up both. A breakdown of the Bearish Sentiment trendline (blue trendline at the bottom) would indicate a strong trend continuation to the downside. Given the overall market condition, it is likely that META will move according to the macro-environment, however, the two scenarios above outline what to look for. Remember to do your analysis, be patient and always look for confirmation from the indicators.
NASDAQ:META
by a.b
Bitcoin deciding its futureAfter the big selloff from the all-time highs, BTCUSD is now consolidating in the 30k – 40k area. In particular, the pair is trading within a channel (blue lines) that typically signals and trend continuation. The bearish outlook is backed by the major resistance displayed by the Levels and Zones indicator, and which sits at around 40k. Should the price drop, it can move quite rapidly as low as 12k to complete an H&S pattern. To contrast this view, the price could continue to move sideways until it eventually breaks above the current consolidation channel. To support this upward move, though, the Sentiment Index indicator at the bottom of the chart must spike to the upside and continue to stay positive for a prolonged period of time. Remember to be patient and never trade impulsively. Always check confirmation from the indicators.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by a.b
In bull market, good news gets better and bad news gets less badAlthough it seems irrational, the market sentiment is that, with the Fed's large injection of liquidity, several vaccines in the third test phase and the uncertainty of the American elections approaching, the dollar no longer seems like a safe haven. Although the fundamentals point to a faster recovery in the United States and due to the injection of money by the Fed there is a chance of an increase in inflation and, consequently, in interest rates which would lead to a stronger dollar (carry trade). However, in the short term, capital flows (CoT) and market sentiment dictate the pace, and they show us that there is a great possibility of a rally in EURUSD up to the psychological level of 1.17.
Long
by blacksheepforex
Navigating The "Brexit" Market : Simplified #GBPCHFSterling Pairs, if you zoom out to the daily chart, had been in a sell-off run (bid run for EURGBP) for a few months now. For GBPCHF, the sell-off all started, technical-analysis wise, after the institutions tapped in 1.3375xx-1.338xx early may, forming an equal high formed two months previously. Fundamental/Sentiment analysis would suggest that this was due to the saga that is in Brexit. A no-deal Brexit/Boris Johnson becoming PM etc have provoked the market to dump their Sterling Longs. I am in intraday-scalping mode for GBPCHF at least today (perhaps could be prolonged until Wednesday, all depending on what happens today). I see oceans of liquidity pools both side of the spectrum and I will make my trading decisions based on which pools the institutions will tap and the price action-reaction once it's been tapped. (long-term I am bearish on Sterling, if price tapped in the buy stops above, that would be grand! I would, with high conviction, would short GBPCHF from there and I would expect a bearish trend ensues) The retail sentiment, although not as strong as NZD bids, is bid. I am a contrarian trader (generally prefers to be the other side of retail sentiment) backed up with my fundamental/sentiment stance, will indeed be bearish on GBP. However, as I mentioned above, I am in a scalping mode today for GBPCHF depending on which pool the big banks/institutions would tap in. The range analysis - Last week's weekly range projection was not a hit. My belief is that when the price fails to hit the daily/weekly/monthly average range projection, then it has to pay it back in the following day/week/month. Price expansion very often happens after a week of a miss projection.
Short
by sufiansaid
GBPCAD - can simple box become box on steroids?With over 80% bullish sentiment, this one calls for shorts (besides GBPCHF and GBPUSD). Trade plan here is very simple - open shorts in red area, SL somewhere around 30 pips, move SL to BE when it closes below box centre, offload half of position in green area, leave the second half to run. Eventually I expect this pair to go lower (see weekly bird view chart below) and that's where the remaining half of position would bring nice pips. If conditions will be OK, I will consider also adding to short position after breakdown of the box lower side and re-test it again. Bird view: Disclaimer: this idea is solely for my own purposes, to satisfy the ego, if it will work out ;)
Short
by rludvik