Recap The action since Wednesday was further evidence of just how powerful simple technical analysis can be. Bulls put in a hammer daily candle right at 1 year old trendline support, showing the power of the bull market trendline connecting the October 2022 lows, with the March 2023 lows. This trendline was tested on Wednesday and resulted in a large bullish...
Recap The SPX market has been tracking seasonals with extreme precision. The last two weeks of September, which are typically the worst of the year, saw ES selling virtually non-stop from the FOMC last Wednesday until yesterday’s low. After a final flush lower, ES put in a violent relief bounce/short squeeze. This process tracked nicely from Tuesday’s newsletter,...
Topped out at 460. Currently looking a bit oversold and it's starting to bounce. Thinking it'll bounce around here for a bit. Once it breaks 415 things will start to get fun/interesting. 350's can we do it?
Recap The ultra-bearish confluence we found ourselves in last week has continued with the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally in late September and the breakdown of the ES chart pattern at 4472. This has resulted in a sell-off with a major magnet at the 4335 level. Despite a brief green day and a 45 point bounce, further revisiting of the 4335 level has...
Recap Last week ended with significant selling, the most we've seen since the bull market began nearly a year ago. The selling was anticipated due to a breakdown of a triangle pattern after the FOMC last Wednesday. We experienced four consecutive red days, a rarity, with the largest red day since March 2023 occurring last Thursday. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The...
Recap Mid-market update. Last week, the ES put in the first relief pop of the new leg down. More downside is expected this week. Last week saw a powerful confluence of FOMC, a major multi-month triangle breakdown, and the most bearish two weeks of the year seasonally. Market Gauge 🔴 Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Mixed, China very weak 🌍 Europe: Down a...
Recap Midday Friday afternoon update. The market experienced a bearish trend with high volatility last week, triggered by the breakdown of the 2-month triangle pattern and the start of the most bearish seasonal cycle of the year. Despite reaching the 4385 level, it's unclear whether a bounce is imminent. The downward trend began with a structure breakdown and...
Recap Yesterday's FOMC day was filled with volatility and traps, making it a challenging day for trading. ES finished below the support of the key triangle structure at 4470, indicating a bearish sentiment. Despite the volatility, smart trading strategies that focused on failed breakdowns and level-to-level profit management yielded lucrative results. Market...
Recap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down slightly 🌍 Europe:...
Recap This week demonstrated the effectiveness of straightforward technical analysis. We kicked off the week eyeing a target of 4565 and touched a high of 4566, validating a simple trendline resistance in a multi-month triangle. A pullback was expected and did indeed materialize. Market Gauge 🔴 Neutral to Bearish The Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe:...
Recap This week was a testament to the power of simple technical analysis. The week began with a clear target in mind: 4565. The week's high was 4566, which was not due to complex economic reasons but rather a simple trendline resistance of a multi-month triangle. A significant pullback was anticipated and it occurred. Market Gauge 🟡 Neutral The Markets...
Recap After a choppy Wednesday, traders were rewarded with a solid move on Thursday. I had been long at 4503-97 since Wednesday morning after CPI, adding to my position at 4518 at close. This was due to a failed breakdown, a core setup that often traps shorts and allows for long entries. We saw a 60+ point follow through off this. As predicted, we rallied to...
Recap Wednesday was a typical CPI trading day characterized by traps and volatility. After the data release, we saw an initial drop, followed by a 30+ point rally, confirming the prediction that the first move after release would fade. Despite this, we ended up in the same 4500-4540 range we've been in for all of September. Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to...
Recap The market experienced a choppy session yesterday with both bulls and bears getting trapped. The price confusion was expected due to today's CPI. After a 60-point relief bounce from Thursday's low to Monday's highs, the market spent much of yesterday swinging in a wide, bi-directional range. The session was spent mostly in the 4520-4540 ping pong...
Recap After a major 110 point sell at the start of September, last Thursday saw the formal setup for a relief rally leg. This setup followed through with a squeeze to start yesterday, leading to a grinding up relief rally leg that made it to mid 4540s so far. ES is now two green days in a row and ~60 points off last Thursdays low Market Gauge 🟢 Neutral to...
IMPORTANT: Effective from Monday, September 11th, ES will roll over from the September (ESU2023) front month to December (ESZ2023). September, which has been the actively traded contract for the last 3 months, will formally expire on Friday, September 15th and stop trading completely. Recap Last week, the SPX managed to pull off a green Friday after three red...
Recap ES finally chose a direction after spending a full week chopping between 4490-4540, and it was down. As discussed earlier, September is often the most bearish and volatile month of the year. The failure of 4493-87 was the key pivot this week, triggering shorts and putting bears in control. The base has broken down, and ES retraced 61% of the August...
Recap In recent weeks, I've been discussing the crucial level in ES: 4493-87. This level has been a battleground since early June. Significant highs were set there in June and early July, which then broke on July 12th to trigger the July melt-up. It then failed in August, triggering the 130 point late August melt-down, before reclaiming late month. Yesterday, it...