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EURUSD Bull Flag Set-UpEURUSD Trading the Bull Flag Formation A small bull flag looks to be in the early stages of formation. With DXY still under pressure and expected to fall away a further 2.5% to 88 over the coming weeks EUR has further upside in store. Can buy the dip back to the lower parallel of the flag - if EUR is to remain very positive there will only be 2 strikes on the lower parallel of the flag before it rallies up through the upper parallel to challenge 1.2515-1.2566 range where it will become vulnerable once more. Buy the dip to the lower parallel of the flag at 1.2092 with stop below 1.2050. Add on the break above the upper parallel of the flag and finally reverse from 1.2520 with stop above 1.2587
Long
by sumastardon
Litecoin: LTCUSD Next Long Set-up approachingLitecoin: LTCUSD 2 buy points: 1. On test of 240 with stops at least 5 lower, under the dynamic support line. 2. Add On a break of the dynamic above - need to see some volume pick up with the latter and a decent rally in first hour after it happens...if we see this it should pick up momentum as it rises and should then hit 283-285 before it meets profit takers again. Join them, or stay long looking for a staged rally to 310, 325 , 347 and eventually 375 again.
BITSTAMP:LTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
BCHUSD Flag Formation: Next long set-up on breakBCHUSD Update What a difference a week makes. Within hours of the last comment BCH had fallen away to a low at 1631, 7 points lower than the perfect entry point at 1638, before ripping 300% higher in 6 days flat. Facebook eat your heart out. Now it's in the process of making a flag formation which will stay good so long as the rising dynamic from the beginning of the move holds up price on all tests. A break above the upper parallel that's containing this downwave will be worth following for another retest of the highs... And on the flip side of this particular coin, if that dynamic from the 'lows' at 1766 gets broken at any point now it will then fall away further down the same parallel to 2420 where it should bounce once more.Although it looks more likely to break up rather than down from here, we don't really have to second guess this right now. The chart will tell us and we can follow.
BLong
by sumastardon
2
GBPUSD: Flag formation signals more GBP strength in offingGBPUSD Another Dog that hasn't Barked Today's price action shows big spikes either side of current price, denoting uncertainty on both sides of this fight. But GBP has stood strong as the Dollar surges...what is it likely to do when the Dollar stops? Sterling has spent all year defying the bears. By the look of the flag now forming that situation looks unlikely to change. Two strikes (another retest is fine if it happens soon) means that so long as the lower parallel continues to hold up today in the face of DXY strength GBP is a still a buy at these lower levels with stops below the parallel for small loss if wrong here. And if so, and the lower parallel of the flag does give way GBP will likely fall away to 1.3237-1.3223 and then bounce from there. As things stand though, GBP is showing underlying strength despite current weakness - and that will remain the case so long as the flag formation remains good. Ultimately GBP should hit 1.38 and above - about 500 pips upside and 30 or so down
Long
by sumastardon
Gold XAUUSD and Dollar Index DXY UpdateGOLD and DXY Gold and Dollar Index Update DXY did come off from where it was meant to last week but has put up more than just a fight so far in the 92.74-92.50 range. The fight back was to be expected, but it's doing better than envisaged so far here - and these conclicting signals urge caution now ...no interest in getting involved in a battle of whipsaw here but will look to back the winner again here when one emerges...DXY has gapped up today, double bottomed and left a pin bar lying around in the space between the two blue lines of fixed support shown on chart...bullish signals. But it's still trapped within the parallels which are trying to force price lower. Something has to give here soon. ...A break above the upper parallel would be the next bullish signal from DXY - look to get long DXY on the next retest of the parallel from above, once broken to upside, and get long USDEUR and short Gold on this development too. On downside DXY has to stay under the upper parallel for the bears to keep control from here - then they have to force DXY down to fill the gap today at 92.89 and then push it below 92.55 again for DXY to turn negative again from here. As it stands the bears are beginning to lose this battle, not enough fire-power to force DXY lower from here by the look of the chart. Early hours of this battle, still, but increasingly the bulls are beginning to wrest back control here. Confimation will come when the upper parallel is broken and survives the next retest. At that point we look to short gold (if signals there are not already given) and get long USDEUR.
TVC:DXY
by sumastardon
ETHUSD: Next Potential Trade Set-UpsETHUSD Potential Trade Set-Ups Pretty dull still here. It's not giving up without a fight but not a range we need to be involved in right now. Maybe if it breaks the upper dynamic holding back all rallies so far, but it looks like running into overhead supply at 477 so if you follow this break, should we see it, look to close out here and only enter long again on a break above 484 looking to get long on the next pull-back, ideally to 477 and no lower, using any winnings from the earlier long trade out of the upper dynamic as stops for the next long trade.
BITTREX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
BCHUSD Underlying very strong consolidating above old structure BCHUSD BCH Dollar Risk and Reward Approaches Consolidating gains above old structure - really strong looking and likely to turn up again soon. Ideally it will come back to 1516 and maybe 1461 but looks so far like 1516 will be the lowest it will go. Stick an order in with a stop below 1440. Or stick one in at 1446 - less chance of getting struck but also lower risk with a stop below 1440. And it may even turn from here around 1548 as there is a little support here too...up to you...if you can handle the pain of potential drop to lower levels and are prepared to leave the stop below 1440 it's coming so close to grabbing some, a small position. It can also travel all the way to the lower parallel by moving sideways to mildly down (ideal situation) but we may not see that. Either way this coming very close to buying. Different options depending whether you are an old bull prepared to wait or a younger bull who will sometimes be spot on and sometimes will jump the gun a little. Whatever, it's close to the lows now with 150 max downside and 450 upside, probably more longer term.
B
by sumastardon
1
USDTRY USD Turkish Lira Short set-up with big potentialUSDTRY US Dollar Turkish Lira This is striking impulse wave: and when it breaks down it's a fabulous short Cannot short this whilst within the power of this massive impulse wave. But once it falls out of the parallel it becomes a massive short - once broken, look for any retest of the parallel from the underside once broken as a second shorting opportunity with stops above the parallel. This break down could be imminent...worth watching this one. It could come all the way back down to the longer term trend line, given enough time. It will likely form a trend as it does so...draw in the parallels as it emerges and stay short whilst it's trapped within them. Good one, looks like, even if a little exotic. A trend is a trend, wherever it originates!
Short
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Some potentially big trades over ThanksgivingBitcoin: BTCUSD Over Thanksgiving Entry Points for some potentially big trades ahead: neutral in near term ahead of the action Hoping you'll have got out of longs when that pin bar mentioned in last update coudn't be beaten. It was likely a serious player in a low volume market who knew what he was doing at an inflection point with good timing - on a holiday, but still hasn't got much traction on the downside, for all that. Today was treacherous for day traders (we were lucky to break even after such a messy day, if you made a few points after spreads you've done well in the circumstances.) Did try to warn that profits need taking quickly both short and long, but it was an impossible day for all but the slickest and even they will have found that they've given half or more of any winnings to the likes of Etoro. Please stay away from these people. They rely on the unwary and the inexperienced. You work for them. Today almost all day traders did the same. But sometimes the pattern is clear enough to give us warning, and the chart is doing that now. This is helpful to the future. Today's price action finally looks to be evolving into a large pennant. This should be helpful in the next day or two. It's telling us that the range is narrowing, so if day-trading we need to pick our spots with utmost care and precision or we're working for the broker again. If this was a regular 'stock' the spreads would be so tight we could trade the crap out of it. But this is Bitcoin. So we have to stand back and watch the pattern unfold from here. We know it's going to do one of two things: break up or break down, eventually, but is quite likely to have one more test of the lower line followed by a bounce first. Buy Points/Signals 1. On a test of the lower dynamic support (lowest rising parallel) If we see this price action, it's worth buying with stops 30 points under the line when tested. 2. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks above the upper line of the pennant it is a major buy with stops 50 points under the line when broken - swing traders can join that break too if we see it, increasing longs, because the upside measurement implied by the break is 8834, about 552 points. That would be cool at Thanksgiving. Maybe. It's Bitcoin. Sell Points/Signals 1. If at any point over the next two days Bitcoin breaks below the the lowest rising parallel (that forms the lower line of the pennant) Bitcoin would turn near term negative and would like fall back to 8000 at first, rally some and then fall away to 7800-7700 range again - a tradeable drop of 350 points - before it rallies again. One way or another we should get a couple of good trades if we're awake for them. Happy Holidays America - as divided as you are, you have so much to be thankful for.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
7
Silver: XAGUSD Look to buy dips,, ready for Dollar break-downSilver: XAGUSD Look to Buy Dips It's just about bearish enough to go long here. But no one seems very interested. It's likely to need the dollar to break below it's lower parallel (see DXY comment for back-up to this trade) before interest picks up here. One thing it has in its favour is those pin bars forming off the dynamic support shown on the chart. It's clear we cannot turn negative on silver unless that line breaks. Don't think it will though, expecting DXY weakness to save silver and propel it higher from here. It's a buy on dips back to the dynamic support line and it's a second buy on a break above 17.05 on dips for a rally to 17.25 minimum and more likely to 17.42. It will then need to break above 17.46 and hold on the next retest to trigger next long from here to 18.2. Stops for longs need to be 15 pips under the dynamic support line to avoid whipsaw. Silver, like gold, is a buy dips market for now - turning aggressively bullish of both when DXY breaks its lower parallel.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by sumastardon
Dollar Index: DXY Update and Key levels for next breakDollar Index: DXY So far DXY is displaying precisely the kind of technical price action you'd expect of something in the process of breaking down lower...the tiny continuation pattern with a bearish upwards slope, every move contained within the parallels that control this inverted flag formation. The dollar will try to rally from the lower parallel of the flag so we need to step off the gas around now if shorting USD across the pairs. Contrarians may look to go long USD again here but be careful if you do...at some point soon DXY is going to fail, breaking below the lower parallel - the point to go aggressively short USD again and to go long Gold once more, looking for 92.62 on DXY and 1305 on Gold.
TVC:DXYShort
by sumastardon
Brent Crude trade Set-ups for week ahead Clean ChartBrent Crude OIL UKOIL Trade Set-Ups for this Week Position: Flat - Just didn't trust this short after it bounced at 61.70 first target and then started to build a near term low at 61.33 so closed out the short for just over 100 pips after spreads, as per updates to last comment. Disappointed at the time to close out a trade that had stopped behaving according to expectations. Not so disappointed now though. Brent is now testing the original break-down level at 62.88 after a high one pip higher on Friday. The zone between 62.88 and 63.10 is a treacherous range, full of uncertainty and potential whipsaw - a difficult spot to trade...it should fall away from here, but that behaviour at the highs doesn't look bearish except in very near term: a tiny flag is forming and Brent can be shorted here with a stop above the upper parallel, all the way back down to the lower parallel where the position should be reversed on the first touch, flipping back long again here, with stop 30 pips below the line. The ideal entry back long would be at 62.30 with stops 30 pips under. Continuation patterns like the last one - and potentially this one too - usually only have two touches on the lower parallel before moving higher, the second touch coming quite late in the pattern, and ideally, for bulls looking for clues, leaving a few pin bars off the lows (see last continuation pattern for comparison). So it's a buy on the next touch of that lower small parallel (stop 30 pips under) for a move back to 62.88-63.10 where look to close out if this trade works out. Then look to see if Brent can start to build a base at 62.88 as we move through Monday into Tuesday... We need to watch out this week coming for any such price action and follow with longs again if we see it develop, looking for another move up to 64.16-64.25 range initially and thereafter back to the upper parallel once 64.30 has been broken on the upside. Good idea to split this into two trades. On the downside, first support for Brent is that small lower parallel creating the near term flag - at around 62.26 if hit early on Monday morning in far East and as low as 62.04 if it comes later in the day - but there should be only one direct hit, as with the last pattern and ideally it will leave pin bars on the 1 hour chart. All bullish indicators that can be used to prepare new longs. Barring a brief shake out from currrent levels, as above, Brent will have to move below 62 to flip back into serious bear territory from here, triggering aggressive shorts down to 61.70 at least, and potentially to 61.33. But whilst that little flag holds, upside is more likely this week coming.
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Trade Set-ups for this weekBrent Crude OIL UKOIL Trade Set-Ups for this Week Position: Flat - Just didn't trust this short after it bounced at 61.70 first target and then started to build a near term low at 61.33 so closed out the short for just over 100 pips after spreads, as per updates to last comment. Disappointed at the time to close out a trade that had stopped behaving according to expectations. Not so disappointed now though. Brent is now testing the original break-down level at 62.88 after a high one pip higher on Friday. The zone between 62.88 and 63.10 is a treacherous range, full of uncertainty and potential whipsaw - a difficult spot to trade...it should fall away from here, but that behaviour at the highs doesn't look bearish except in very near term: a tiny flag is forming and Brent can be shorted here with a stop above the upper parallel, all the way back down to the lower parallel where the position should be reversed on the first touch, flipping back long again here, with stop 30 pips below the line. The ideal entry back long would be at 62.30 with stops 30 pips under. Continuation patterns like the last one - and potentially this one too - usually only have two touches on the lower parallel before moving higher, the second touch coming quite late in the pattern, and ideally, for bulls looking for clues, leaving a few pin bars off the lows (see last continuation pattern for comparison). So it's a buy on the next touch of that lower small parallel (stop 30 pips under) for a move back to 62.88-63.10 where look to close out if this trade works out. Then look to see if Brent can start to build a base at 62.88 as we move through Monday into Tuesday... We need to watch out this week coming for any such price action and follow with longs again if we see it develop, looking for another move up to 64.16-64.25 range initially and thereafter back to the upper parallel once 64.30 has been broken on the upside. Good idea to split this into two trades. On the downside, first support for Brent is that small lower parallel creating the near term flag - at around 62.26 if hit early on Monday morning in far East and as low as 62.04 if it comes later in the day - but there should be only one direct hit, as with the last pattern and ideally it will leave pin bars on the 1 hour chart. All bullish indicators that can be used to prepare new longs. Barring a brief shake out from currrent levels, as above, Brent will have to move below 62 to flip back into serious bear territory from here, triggering aggressive shorts down to 61.70 at least, and potentially to 61.33. But whilst that little flag holds, upside is more likely this week coming.
FX:UKOILLong
by sumastardon
Gold:XAUUSD Playing the game of push/pull with DXY Gold: XAUUSD How DXY is the gold trader's best friend right now So far gold has behaved in the bear-mangling mode expected of it since the dollar broke down below key support on DXY at 94.26 (right hand chart) but it wasn't too smart to let it go again at 1290. That rally on Friday was vicious for bears - the shape of price action as gold turned resistance at 1281 into support shows the market adjusting before gold powers 16 points north, a volte-face - which you would have been expecting if you've been experienced enough, wise enough to run the two charts in tandem. If you don't you're dealing with a blindfold over one eye... The pin bars on the one hour chart here show strong rejection at 1296.78 down to current levels at 1293 and a streak of uncontested green...very rare for a space like that to remain uncontested and it should flip back to 1288, and potentially to 1284 before it rallies again. On the other side of the street, we can see that DXY is flipping in a range beween 93.99 (the high for the week was exactly 93.99 as forecast, giving a precise point at which to sell gold - with stops only triggered in event that DXY breaks above 94 and holds, in which case DXY is going up and Gold is going back down. Just the best duo/tandem trade there is in almost any market anywhere. Use it or lose it. Probably the best companion a gold trader can ever have. DXY: Dollar index Through all the noise of currency pairs and most commodity markets there is a still, small, much neglected voice that can tell usually show you the bigger picture/helicopter view of all that close combat fighting going on below. Not always, but usually. DXY, so far since the breakdown at 94.26, has been very helpful. It's flipping between 94 key resistance and 93.50 key near term support and this is what's causing such grief and whipsaw in the price of gold. Right now it's giving mixed near term signals... believe it will break lower still eventually, but the chart is not confirming that here....it's just double bottomed at 93.50...was Ok to bounce here for sure but that was quite a big bounce - pins at top and botttom of move...just near term a little confusing, at least to this writer anyway. But gold is toppy near term and DXY is showing a double bottom near term. If it can rally from here then it should push back up to the 93.99 where it should meet profit takers. (Do same with gold shorts at that point). And only if DXY can then manage to break above 94 and hold is the tide turning back in favour of Dollar, at which point we look to short gold again. And on the other side, if at any point DXY breaks 93.50 it enters a zone of uncertainty/whipsaw between 93.50 and 93.35 where positions can sudddenly reverse - like quicksand on a map this zone cannot be trusted - a zone to avoid if possible. However, if at any point DXY is driven below 93.5 for more than 2 hours it will become llikely that support is eroding and it should start to fall away quite hard to 92.80-92.62 - and thereby triggering aggressive gold longs.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update Short set-ups from higher up Bitcoin:BTCUSD It's made a break above the small parallel and run into the first line of profit takers and sellers and so far holding up above that frustrating old dynamic. If you've gone long on the break above the parallel please raise the stop to right under the old dynamic - say just under 6575 - for maybe break even if this gets slapped back hard again. So long as the dynamic holds it at 6590 now it should push higher to 6700-6710 where look to take profits. Use these, if realised, as stops for the next trade. See the next dynamic waiting above? That's the short term upside target. The next hurdlle for bulls will be beating that line, turning it into support after a potentially lengthy battle and then from there Bitcoin should move up to 6940 at which point it becomes a sell again. The longer Bitcoin labours like this, even though it should grind upwards to touch 6700, the more it looks doomed, ultimately, to another big sell off. We have to catch it, but it really has to happen when we're awake, because it's so volatile. It's more a question of where the ideal spot will be to short it from...well it could turn out to be 6700, which is why we need to close out longs there on first strike (or set limit order). And if it's not from 6700, and this can be fought and won by the bulls, turning the near term dynamic (new on chart) into support after an inevitable battle, only then would the coast be clear for a tradeable long up to 6940 with stop under the new dynamic line by 50 points or so. And then its a short again at 6940-6950 with a stop 50 points above . This is complex still, not trending, and full of deceit and whip. It can only be free of it for a fleeting few minutes if it can bust through that line above it...why wait and wonder? close out. Go long again only if the new dynamic becomes real support on a retest from above, once broken through on upside. So we're looking for one more failure, from either 6700 or at best from 6940. The new dynamic will decide that - and our next move, as above. Be careful of getting carried away on the long side now. It's getting time for another retest of 5747 at least, if not of 5653. And potentially lower still to 5382.There's more downside than upside. Look for a potential top at 6700 and if that gets broken through, at 6940. If you short here use a stop 50 points above for 100 total risk. If the first position gets taken be ready to again at 6940.It should come back 250 points quickly. Take them if seen. That older medium term dynamic has to hold here at 6600 now for long to stay good..stops on longs right under by 25 -35 points for break-even if it fails now.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUST Potential break to upside developingBitcoin: BTCUSD Almost BS free version The way this is behaving now, sliding down the upper parallel of the continuation pattern is still more bullish than bearish, though doesn't look it, granted...it can spend a while yet grinding lower but so long as it finds support from 6450 pivot this is, surprisingly, looking like it might well make a break to the upside yet. This will confound bears, obviously, and stops will start flying, again. That''s why we're flat watching this stooge around drifting down the upper little parallel. If it dips down to 6450 it's a speccy buy for day-traders with a stop tight under at 6400. But it still needs to break above the stonger potential dynamic resistance line at 6550 and then hold on retest (as laboriously explained above and or in previous comments for other traders to consider going long again. this process requires the patience of a saint on a fishing expedition. If you got it, stay with it a while. It could just pay off. And, like fishing, we may also catch nothing. Downside is trickier to judge right now unless day-trading between the lines - don't think it's safe to short again unless 6300 gives way. and at moment the pattern is not saying bearish, just boring . Be Lucky! patient too And maybe drop the the stop to under 6400 by 10 points if going long from here. riskier than waiting for break and confirming signal at 6550 but higher reward.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
2
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Approaching key resistance - next trade set-up Bitcoin is now approoaching important resistance again at the break level/original shorting point from yesterday, at 6445- 6510, with the additional problem of the old dynamic support line that propped up the rallies from the summer lows hanging above it 6515. So it's a near term short for day traders from 6510 with a stop 50 points above but only back to 6300, maybe 6165. We need to look for next long potential for all traders if 6550 is breached on the upside, looking to get long on the first retest of the old dynamic (which we can see waiting just above current price on the chart) so looking to get long if Bitcoin penetrates the dynamic and then comes back down to test it from above and holds, looking for an upside target at 6940 before closing out and going short again. Yesterday into this Morning UK time Bitcoin hit the downside target centred around 5645 for a closed out 800 point gain (yesterday' 3 early trades yielded 200 points on the sell from 6300 to 6050, another 200 to 450 points on the buy from 6050 and then 800 points on the short from 6445 down to the first target cetred at 5645 - so a total return of 1200 to 1450 points yesterday) - before it all went wrong. We were looking to short Bitcoin again as it came up to test the upper parallel (with a stop 50 points above the parallel when touched) which was triggered. But Bitcoin never stopped at the parallel, it's power to contain the wave now spent, and telling us that downward pressure is waning, at least in the near term. So 50 points was lost here. We needed that plan B: watch for breaking of the parallel, then on next pull-back, the parallel must turn from resistance into support, holding up the first decline after breaking above it, showing the trend-change is occurring with this confirming signal, and giving day traders only a chance to go long on the retest (with stops 50 points under the parallel on first touch/first retest from above), looking for a rally back up to 6445 where any longs need closing out.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD New trade set-ups with clean chartBITCOIN: BTCUSD Update on Positions Not a bad day, so far but need to keep an eye on this short still...day-traders have made 250 points from the short from 6300 early in UK morning, then another 200 to 450 points from the long at 6050 just an hour later, depending on where you took profits and now we're short once more from the highs of the day at 6450 with a tight stop above 6515 which was never hit - and is now about 300 points in profit, so 750 - 1000 points profit today in a market that is down 200. This is what a chart that is so technically perfect can produce in the way of fast profits. If you can stay alert and act quickly this space is made for traders - there has never been anything better so far, in the history of speculation. It may not last forever (not Bitcoin, which is just beginning) but the perfection of the chart - but whilst it does we have to trade it. Also longer- term readers will know that catching this monster has been the long term aim of this quest since the chase began - we really want it tagged, bagged and thrown in the freezer, the ultimate trophy catch for any serious speculator (or investor if you fell better with that). So maybe we'll get a chance for that later...maybe. But like Ahab on the quest to catch Moby Dick, you gotta stay in the boat to have that chance. Time will tell, as always. Right now we're still short...think we can move the stop down to protect some profits...the central parallel is still bossing this impulse wave as we can clearly see from the chart - whilst it stays in control of the move down we can stay short, hoping for another massive bear raid to come out of China which ideally will drive price down hard to at least make a double bottom at 5637 and potentially to then fall further still to 5113-4973 range where it will become a buy again if we see it hit. LONG Story Short Yeah, right. Difficult to try cover all scenarios: Stay short, using the central parallel as exit (break above here, followed by successful retest from above: newbies please beware: ideally you should just follow for a while and check back over older Bitcoin posts on Sumastardon pages on Tradingview.com to get a better understanding of trading break-outs etc). If the call goes to plan and the central parallel continues to control this move, repelling every encounter the short stays on down to 5747-5637 first target. Then we close out. It will probably try to make a double bottom in this range (which could well extend right down to the low in China last night again, at 5561 at the extreme). Still don't think that this range will likely be the final bottom, but it should create some kind of stall at least and really should trigger a bounce if touched (doesn't have to though, those Chinese can get pretty scared at times) so cannot recommend a quick counter rally long here because the stop is too vague right now - for the first time since Bitcoin began to unravel it didn't bounce exactly off a given fixed support line (blue lines) but exceeded it by fully 80 points - so am less sure about exact level to expect a bounce, making a sensible stop impossible to figure right now...but if Bitcoin does come all the way down to the exact low at 5561 within 10 points either side it might be worth day traders getting long with a stop 50 points lower for small loss if wrong. But we need to be ready to turn entire position round on any fall below 5510, shorting down to 5113-4973 range (with stop placed at 5610 if this trade is triggered) and ready to buy back and go long in this important range with a stop 100 points below 4973 - if this range is tested later it's the ideal place to consider a longer term 'investment' in Bitcoin (ie Slinging it in the freezer) as it looks the perfect range to get long again. But if wrong we need a plan B, worked out in advance: to go wrong, firstly the central parallel needs breaking to tell us the pressure is finally lifted, then it needs to use the
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
2
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Update on Shorts, next trade set-upsBITCOIN: BTCUSD Update on Positions Not a bad day, so far but need to keep an eye on this short still...day-traders have made 250 points from the short from 6300 early in UK morning, then another 200 to 450 points from the long at 6050 just an hour later, depending on where you took profits and now we're short once more from the highs of the day at 6450 with a tight stop above 6515 which was never hit - and is now about 300 points in profit, so 750 - 1000 points profit today in a market that is down 200. This is what a chart that is so technically perfect can produce in the way of fast profits. If you can stay alert and act quickly this space is made for traders - there has never been anything better so far, in the history of speculation. It may not last forever (not Bitcoin, which is just beginning) but the perfection of the chart - but whilst it does we have to trade it. Also longer- term readers will know that catching this monster has been the long term aim of this quest since the chase began - we really want it tagged, bagged and thrown in the freezer, the ultimate trophy catch for any serious speculator (or investor if you fell better with that). So maybe we'll get a chance for that later...maybe. But like Ahab on the quest to catch Moby Dick, you gotta stay in the boat to have that chance. Time will tell, as always. Right now we're still short...think we can move the stop down to protect some profits...the central parallel is still bossing this impulse wave as we can clearly see from the chart - whilst it stays in control of the move down we can stay short, hoping for another massive bear raid to come out of China which ideally will drive price down hard to at least make a double bottom at 5637 and potentially to then fall further still to 5113-4973 range where it will become a buy again if we see it hit. LONG Story Short Yeah, right. Difficult to try cover all scenarios: Stay short, using the central parallel as exit (break above here, followed by successful retest from above: newbies please beware: ideally you should just follow for a while and check back over older Bitcoin posts on Sumastardon pages on Tradingview.com to get a better understanding of trading break-outs etc). If the call goes to plan and the central parallel continues to control this move, repelling every encounter the short stays on down to 5747-5637 first target. Then we close out. It will probably try to make a double bottom in this range (which could well extend right down to the low in China last night again, at 5561 at the extreme). Still don't think that this range will likely be the final bottom, but it should create some kind of stall at least and really should trigger a bounce if touched (doesn't have to though, those Chinese can get pretty scared at times) so cannot recommend a quick counter rally long here because the stop is too vague right now - for the first time since Bitcoin began to unravel it didn't bounce exactly off a given fixed support line (blue lines) but exceeded it by fully 80 points - so am less sure about exact level to expect a bounce, making a sensible stop impossible to figure right now...but if Bitcoin does come all the way down to the exact low at 5561 within 10 points either side it might be worth day traders getting long with a stop 50 points lower for small loss if wrong. But we need to be ready to turn entire position round on any fall below 5510, shorting down to 5113-4973 range (with stop placed at 5610 if this trade is triggered) and ready to buy back and go long in this important range with a stop 100 points below 4973 - if this range is tested later it's the ideal place to consider a longer term 'investment' in Bitcoin (ie Slinging it in the freezer) as it looks the perfect range to get long again. But if wrong we need a plan B, worked out in advance: to go wrong, firstly the central parallel needs breaking to tell us the pressure is finally lifted, then it needs to use the
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
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BITCOIN: BTCUSD Short set-up hereBitcoin: BTCUSD For what it's worth right now, and looking at the bigger picture and pattern developing in first moment of calm since rising from bed, believe that Bitcoin is most likely to bottom at 5098 - a long way down from here - that view will only change if Bitcoin continues to hold up around current values and then turns up and breaks through parallel as described earlier...unless and until we see that Bitcoin is still very vulnerable - don't look to play this long unless 6515 is broken on upside - look for shirting opportunities and use stops to stay safe....can you see the stop? is it close by ? then trade for small loss if wrong.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by sumastardon
3
BCH/DOLLAR: BCHUSD 20% Short set-up when Bitcoin turns back upBCH/DOLLAR BCHUSD Short Set-up Some interesting action by this crypto pair. Take a look on the 15 minute chart at the continuation patterns over just the last couple of days, just perfect, with great entry points. If you traded this since yesterday, so far so good. But when Bitcoin bottoms it will obviously snap back, giving bears a chance to hit it ...so this will be a good short to pair with Bitcoin BTCUSD on the buy side, when the turn comes...(see Bitcoin comments). Right now BCH is just making the beginnings of another continuation pattern as Bitcoin sticks around 6305-6220 on downside, so this is not tradeable yet - but when Bitcoin finally wriggles free of the central parallel and then breaks the last parallel on the upside, then will be the time to short BCH/Bitcoin and BCHUSD. The space down to 1210 is full of whip right now and can easily break higher still if Bitcoin breaks lower still, as it's still quite likely to, so far, by look of Bitcoin chart. But it doesn't have to, unfortunately. So: If bitcoin breaks lower from 6000-5990 this will go higher still. And conversely, if Bitcoin finds a bottom at 6220, as it has done so far, this will crash back to 976 at least with easiest part of the trade being from 1200 down to 995 - a nice 20% short...worth watching this/setting alert for any break of 1210 , (confirmed by Bitcoin double bottoming at 6220 and turning back up) so you're ready...could be a good one.
BShort
by sumastardon