Brent Crude Oil: UKOIL Still not too late to short BrentBrent Crude Oil UKOIL Update
Had to update this position via original comment whilst embargo was still on, repeated here (sic): Hva etaken a short
position with tight stop at 64.72 but ready to reverse, as above. High so far 64.62 - close but not hit yet.
That has proved to be the high so far as the Opec meeting gathered. Still don't think it's too late here to short. It should
come off all the way down to the lower parallel at around the 60 mark for 370 pips from here, but the first downside target
is 61.67, still good for 200 pips here, give or take. Am lowering the stop now to 64.30 to get out with about 15 pips profit
if it goes wrong from here. But sell just before the meeting worked very well last time, so hope we see the same kind of result this time too.
Set
BICOIN:BTCUSD Next swing trade set-upsBitcoin BTCUSD Update Too Whippy
Got stopped out around even at 7060 this time. Still
unconvinced by the rally attempt and looking at that pattern
it should fall much further still. Yet, we've seen how tricky it
is selling now, with two pin bars on the 2 hour chart, so
although bearish this area here between 7137 resistance and
support at 6935 is too full of whipsaw so am staying on
sidelines having blown 40 pips on bad trades here
today. Prefer to wait for one of two signals for next swing
trade and leave this range we're in now to day traders to fight
over until one side wins the near term:
Any break below 6910 will trigger next short, as well as
completing the head and shoulders formation above it - with a
minimum downside target at 6312, bouncing off the lower
parallel as it descends. It could actually spike as low as 6165
at the nadir but should then bounce again powerfully from
here, if not from 6312. This scenario looks more likely - but
will not necessarily prevail, so still need a plan B in case the
upper parallel is broken on the upside at any point (with a
successful retest as described in earlier posts) -
Bitcoin will have to move above 7135 and then hold up here
on the next minor pull-back which will force it above the
parallel and away from the clutches of this downwave.
Don't think this will happen, but it's Bitcoin. Anything could
happen!
BIITCOIN: BTCUSD testing upper parallel and still vulnerableBitcoin: BTCUSD
Got to sleep sometime unfortunately. Sure enough Bitcoin made its low at 6928 after making an initial low off the lower
large parallel and bouncing it then came back to make a double bottom low at 6928 before doing what it was meant
to...bouncing up to test the upper contolling parallel. Annoyingly, after trying to avoid getting stopped out of a good
trade, exactly that happened, the first time for a while that Bitcoin has created a false trigger on that first break above
7135. Shit does happen, even with Bitcoin, sometimes. Anyway the levels given have been spot on pretty much all
through this run up and back down (to the point on downside) so please don't be too pissed...we have to accept the
occasional false break: no chart gives out perfect signals every time though Bitcoin comes close most of the time.
Accept. Move on to next trade: we're pretty much at the next stage forecast in last comment, now: testing the upper
parallel. Day traders will have bought off the predicted low at 6928 with stops below but will be taking profits here, forcing
Bitcoin sideways towards the upper parallel where it should fall away from again when it gets touched (short with stop
above for day traders' next play). Bitcoin will struggle here and it will become vulnerable to another sell off once it's
touched the parallel at 7232.
It could develop into another large down-wave from here, but doesn't exactly have to...still prefer to be short from the
parallel with stop above when it gets touched soon now.This is still a space for day traders right now. For that to
change from here that upper parallel needs taking out on upside, then on a retest it has to hold up as Bitcoin comes
back down on next minor pull back (might not see it if a large green candle starts to form so this entry will need watching
over if and when it arrives)...but if and when that upper parallel gets broken on the upside will be the time to think
about going long again or increasing positions (ideal will be a break aove the upper parallel followed by retest which takes
Bitcoin back down a little lower as it tracks the parallel downwards for a while before rallying powerfully).
Until we see that happen this is still day-trading territory.
Bitcoin:BTCUSD Trying to make a break for the upside: Trigger Bitcoin Potential Trade set-up for day traders and momentum traders:
If it breaks above big resistance at 7151 and can hold for just
a few minutes, it will move quickly up to the upper parallel
and then come off again. a good trade with stops under 7060
if triggered. Until it can achieve this it's till vulnerable to
further profit taking.
Ibex Index: looking to go long again here for 800 points upside
IBEX Index: IBEX 35 Update
After getting long on the break above 10470 we got stopped out at 10525 for a small 55 point profit...
Now this index has come back down to the breakout zone once more for what should be one last kiss
before the rally recommences.
It should find support between current values at 10362 and about 55 points lower, at 10310 at
lowest... (same amount as recent win on this index) off the upper parallel.
So am looking to go long again from the 10362-10310 range with a stop just under 10300,
looking for a move back up to the highs at 11168 (about 800 points) between now and early
spring 2018. So about 60 points downside risk and 800 points upside if it works out...
GOLD: XAUUSD Intermediate Double bottom established- long set-upGOLD: XAUUSD
Been stooging around waiting for gold to come up to 1281-1283 range before shorting it - it came within 25 pips or
so below here but never struck the sell zone before it fell away...now it's approaching the sell zone again but recent
price action, helped by the Fed decision to hold off on another rate rise until December means that a short here is
no longer nearly so enticing from that 1281-3 range.
It's broken through the upper parallel and made a higher intermediate high...bullish, not bearish price action, obviously.
Obvious enough to require a change of tack...
So, the past week's price action has changed the technical picture from bearish to bullish and whilst it can still fail one
last time at the original 1281-3 sell zone, granted, it won't come back very far by look of chart.
Am more interested now in buying at 1274ish with a stop 3 dollars lower, or, if that doesn't happen, once 1283 is
cleared by 50 pips or so on upside with a stop a couple or 3 dollars lower, ideally just under 1281.
Minimum upside target at 1303 if triggered.
USDJPY: Time to close any last longs and and reverse positionsUSDJPY
The breakout to the upside never materialised. The upside target for USD longs here was at the 114.30-114.50 range.
Frustratingly the high on Thursday was 2 pips shy of the lower end at 114.30. Close, but no cigar. Hope you were still able to
get out close to the top though.
We still need to see a break above 114.55 to go long USD again, but yesterday's news from the Fed isn't going to give it
the impetus by look of price action. As this is written another near term top is being formed on this pair, so am going to risk
some of yesterday's profits on this pair on a short from 114.01 current levels with a stop 25 pips away and see how it goes.
GBPUSD Medium Term Swing set-upsGBPUSD Near Term - and Medium Term swing set-up
Maybe about to get stopped out of the Sterling short trade here for a 10 pip loss (stop at 1.337)
If so, it's a small loss at least - but need to cover the implications from here, if struck ...
Sterling would then be likely to rally further by about 90 pips to 1.3475 - but intend to close down
any near term longs there as it has become such a key area of interest, with fixed/static resistance
from the summer period meeting dynamic/moving resistance from the highs - therefore a likely
point of maximum impact/interest if it gets struck over the next day or two...
So in the event that 1.3480 is broken on the upside by more than 15 pips (and any subsequent
pull-back is then supported around the 1.3470 mark) Sterling would be making quite a big
statement: 3 years and 3 months of downtrend is finally at an end, bringing more swing traders
into the market...so will go long again at this point if we happen to see that little pull-back, (with
stop about 20 pips below here at 1.3448 for small loss if wrong) looking for 1.363 initially, then
a move up to test the upper parallel, followed by further strength to 1.4062.
So 590 pips potential reward for 20-30 pips or so risk, if struck.
DOWNSIDE for Sterling
So if the short from 1.327 (stop at 1.337/8) gets taken out that's 10/11 pips blown - and if it
doesn't will be looking to let it run a little, but only back to 1.3143 ish for 130 pips or so profit.
No way can swing traders turn aggressively bearish of Sterling again unless and until it breaks
below 1.3029, which would create a 250 pip downside target at 1.2777.
USDJPY Trade set-ups for this week's Fed outcomeUSDJPY
A battle royale is raging between these two heavyweights,
caught between the lines of near term support and resistance
shown on the chart. The fight could go on until Thursday at
this rate when one of those two lines should finally give way...
It's OK to buy at 113 (with a stop no more than 20 pips away)
but would still go flat again at 114.30-114.50 as it's now become such
a big level, where fixed resistance frrom a triple top meets the
dynamic resistance line falling from the highs.
Not looking to short again from 114.3 because DXY is saying
the break, when it comes, should be in favour of the Dollar,
not the Yen.
Therefore unless daytrading this pair needs watching over,
awaiting the break (whichever way it comes) for the next
worthwhile swing trade...
Upside break for USD: USD needs to break above 114.3-114.5
to rout the bears and trigger a flurry buy stops and fresh buy
orders just above here - a very bullish outcome - breaking
through tough converging lines of overhead resistance in the
process. This would create a medium term upside target at
118.1-118.6 for swing traders and a nearer term upside target
at 115.3-115.6 for day traders.
USD will be likely to fall away again from here, coming back
to test 114.5-114.3 range one last time before rallying
towards 118.
Downside Break for USD: A break below 112.85 (first trade)
should result in a fast test of 111.73 - then, only when 111.50
gives way can a more a prolonged period of dollar weakness
be expected back to 108-107 range (second short trade) -
ideal for swing traders, if we see it.
Either way, there should be some good trades emerging over
next 48 hours on this pair. Consider setting alerts for either eventuality...
DXY: Dollar has to break above 94.75 to trigger next longDXY: Dollar Index Update
Been waiting for DXY to come back to 94.28 at least, if not to 93.99
(and potentially a spike to an extreme low off the lower trend line at
worst) before the Dollar begins its next surge higher...
But it's putting up a fight at 94.45 in London today.
It can still come off from around 94.70 mark though so getting
the turn here is tricky...now need to see a break above 94.70
by 5 pips to get long for move up to 96 initially, and much
higher still over the medium term.
In adsence of such price action it's a waiting game a little longer,
looking for a retest of 94.28 or ideally 93.99 before looking to go long again.
GOLD:XAUUSD Gold broke out of a 6 year long downtrend on FridayXAUUSD: Gold Friday was a very special day for XAUUSD: it broke above a six year long down-trend that's been in play ever since the high was reached in 2011. All it has to do on Monday is hold above that line and not get sold off - gold should then rally to 1301-4 range. But it also looks as if it could well push higher by about $90 or 7% from here once it's proved it's strong enough to stand above the big dividing line come Monday. Why would it do this? Break 6 years in a downtrend...could it be that Comey has knowledge of the fact that the President (indirectly obviously) laundered/legitimised red-hot Russian money via his golf empire - stable assets scattered all over the world for the ultimate hedge - likely arranged at arm's length by the super smart Jared. This arrangement suited the Russians and it suited the President - and that's how Jared made his bones with the Prez. That much seems obvious even from this side of the pond. The question is: does Comey have any evidence? He's certainly got motive now. Who would call the guy he's fired a 'nut-job' ? Except either a nut-job...or someone so confident he's bullet-proof because...again he's mad or really does know that Comey has nothing on him. Now Comey has to make his mark - has to show the world he's not a nut job. The stage is set. The world, not just America, awaits Thursday with baited breath. And markets don't like uncertainty, do they? And loss of confidence in the Trump ideals will spell loss of confidence in the Dollar and on the other side of the coin, a mini-flight into Gold. Maybe this is what the gold chart is hinting at. Time will tell
BITCOIN: BTCUSD The war of attrition continuesBITCOIN: Bears can't win yet until they can break 2225-2215 and then 2180 below there. But neither can the bulls unless they can take 2350 out. One way or another, if you're patient enough, this is going to break and if it happens to be to the upside it should be worth following