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UK100: FTSE 100 Index Trade Set-Ups For Week AheadFTSE 100 Index UK100 Since making a seasonal high on 22nd May FTSE has fallen away down a narrow impulse wave and chanelled down the smaller falling pair of parallels from the new high. Whist constrained within the channel FTSE remains vulnerable to further selling pressure back to the first minor support line at 7691. Failure to hold here will trigger a shorting opportuninty back to the 7600-75832 range where it should attempt to bounce away to the upside again. Looking beyond that bounce, should 7580 fail further out in time FTSE will likely fall away much further over the summer, to a new downside target in the 7335-7294 range. Returning to the upside FTSE has to break back above the upper parallel carrying the current down-wave for the bears to back off again now - it can do this, but only if 7691 holds up on London open. This level looks key to the near term. It must hold here and bounce up through the upper falling parallel and then hold up on the restest once it is broken above - if we see this kind of price action soon after the open can look to get long with stops under the 7690 level, but still ready to reverse again short if the stop is broken by 10 or more points.
OANDA:UK100GBP
by sumastardon
DAX Index:GER30 Topping Formation - Care Needed HereDax Index DAX Topping Formation Short Set-Ups If you trade Bitcoin you will be familiar with this pattern for sure. Having broken below the longer term lower parallel the Dax has fallen away to structure lows to left of price, dropped a little lower to take out the last swing long stops - and then promptly swung back higher again. In doing so it's tracking up a smaller pair of parallels back towards the larger parallel above it. It is going to have an insumountable problem breaking above either of the parallels now above it. In addition to showing topping activity now we have a seasonal pull working in opposition to price. 'Sell in May and go away, come back on St Leger day' is an old stock market adage for a reason. Up to 2015, in the 65 years since 1950, the US stock market has returned just 0.3pc on average between May and October. That compares with a 7.5pc average return from November to April. This significant difference is the justification for the age-old adage. St Leger is the day in September when the horse race of that name is run. It is the traditional end of the season, short-hand for being out of the market during the less profitable summer months and fully invested in the winter. This pattern of seasonality is very much present but not apparent every single year. That would be too much to expect. Nevertheless, it's very much there, even if it does hide sometimes inside the noise. Long story short, this index is vulnerable again now. It's testing the junction between fixed and dynamic support lines at 12789 now. Failure to hold here should tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to 12599 to begin with where it should try to bounce away again - any failure to do so will trigger another wave of selling back to 12323. Both these breaks should be worth shorting when they come. Any break below any fixed line of support by more than 25 points should lead to a near term test of the next support line. The biggest of these moves lower is the last, from 12300 down to 11856-11744. On the upside this index has to hold up at 12789 now for the bulls to stay in control from here. It can do this one last time and rally from here right back to the highs and just take the stops above out, before falling away again. This is effectively inverse price action to the action we saw at the last swing lows of March. But that is a best case scenario. At best this is a speculative buy at 12827 because the stop is so close by, just under 12800 for 30 or so loss if wrong here. But be ready to short on first break below 12800 with stops 60 or more above. The up-trend looks to be waning and running out of upside momentum now. Be ready for the break lower, maybe set an alert, and act on it. It could be a good trade - if we don't get stopped out first...
FX:GER30Short
by sumastardon
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from HereBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups from Here The pattern Bitcoin is currently making is treacherous and too unclear to contemplate a trade at this point. It looks and feels more manipulated right now than ever - as if price is being left to run a little higher to stop hunt weak bears before it gets reeled back in again. It should only get as far as the upper parallel at around 7578 now at best on Bitfinex before it falls away again. To break the downtrend Bitcoin has to find buyers enough to push back above the uppermost parallel and to hold it on the retest. It looks unlikely now, but if we see it happen later on it should be worth following for a potential weekend rally. But in its absence Bitcoin remains stuck in a down-trend and the dearth of support coming from US as it opens means it should fall away again quite soon now from the 7525-7578 range. But even the downside is uncertain at present and it could be that Bitcoin tries to establish a double bottom around the 7318-7263 range when it does come off again. Be careful with the short at this point. Needs volume spike to arrive to push it lower still from there. If it comes and 7250 gives way it's good to follow short again or add to positions looking for 7162 in near term and further out a decline in stages back to 6615-6517 range.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
8
BTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups TodayBTCUSD: Bitcoin Trade Set-Ups for Today After breaking below the lower parallel of the continuation pattern which had been created over the weekend Bitcoin began to fall away - but the fall when it came overnight was grudging and lacked fluidity or downside momentum. It's therefore hard to trust at the moment and until we get better clarity am forced to close out short at current levels and move to sidelines awaiting a clearer signal for next trade from here. Whilst trapped within the falling parallels Bitcoin is still negative but once again the fall lacks any traction and cannot be trusted enough to stay short of it right now. Any failure to hold 8250 on Coinbase should tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to the 8148 line. But it can rally back to the 8284 line first so am closing out. A break below here is then needed to trigger the next short of just over 200 points back to 7935. The fall from the weekend highs has been corrective so far. We need to see the upper falling parallel of the pattern broken on the upside - and for it to hold up on the retest once broken above - to switch back to longs again from this point. The market is hard to play right now. It needs the patience of a saint once more to negotiate this minefield. The map says beware for the time being. Better to keep powder dry if possible for now - the market feels like it's being manipulated on thin volumes, trying to trap traders on the wrong side. It just feels a little weird right now. Weird enough to stand back awhile until the picture clarifies more as above.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
2
BTCUSD Saturday Trade Set-UpsBitcoin Weekend Trade Set-Ups It looks like we should get an interesting trade coming up here quite soon. Failure to hold on to 8300 will most likely force it back to the lower parallel of the continuation pattern shown at the bottom of this decline. On the downside we need to see a break below the lower small rising parallel and the support line 8230 to trigger the next short back to 7946 and potentially lower still, to 7817-7800 range. The next important support below here lies at 7584. And on the upside, it's had 4 waves up - it should struggle at the big dynamic again at around 8368 on Coinbase now. Obviously any break above the uppermost falling medium term dynamic would be very bullish- and we will have to follow it long if we see it happen - again it will need a volume burst to achieve this, as usual. It is possible. But the truth is it should come off. it's Bitcoin. If looking to trade this today try to keep an open mind for the next hour or two and follow the break when it eventually comes, watching for a volume spike behind it to confirm.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
1
BTCUSD Bitcoin: Sunday Trade Set-UpsBitcoin Sunday Trade Set-Ups A fairly active overnight session has seen Bitcoin move up to highs around midnight gmt, then down for 6 hours to 06:00gmt and 01:00est and then back up again, forming a fairly sketchy triangle as it moves through time. The last move down (green arrow) was corrective in pattern with 4 small waves down before it hit the lower dynamic of the triangle before rallying again. This move down from the most recent peak at the 8486 line is 2 tiny waves down so far. Interest is so low now that it's basically flat-lining. There is no trade until we see a break unless playing inside the triangle which is getting trickier and trickier as the minutes tick away. But we are getting closer to a resolution now. It's a buy again on on a break above 8510 for a rally to 8630 - 8681 range. It then has to break above 8690 to trigger a second long up to 8835-8881 range. On the downside it has to break the lower dynamic of the triangle to trigger a short back to the 8219-8200 range. At all costs 8200 must hold up today on any retest - failure to do so will flip Bitcoin back into bear territory again back to 8022 initially and then to the 7817-7738 range. We may be stuck with 100 or so point trades if volumes stay low today so don't push things unless we see a volume kick behind us to keep positions open for a little longer.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by sumastardon
4
Ready for a LONG 1st Sign of seller's failure is during 2018-04-13 (UTC+8) 17:00 which couldn't break its own record from the previous low. 2nd Sign of seller's failure is during 2018-04-17 (UTC+8) 21:00 which price did not went down, created a FAKER! 3rd Sign of strong BUYERS showed up forming a V-Formation. Note: Counter trend trade is carry out on this ( It is still Sellers territories ) Trade Set-Up: Open: 1.2619 S/L: 1.2584 (35 pips) T/P: 1.2739 (120 pips) Aware of the price 1.27400 as the area Sellers breach!!! Note: If price close back at 1.26190 it might end up all the above trade set-up to be forfeited and turn back to sell side. ( Faker created )
Long
by wenkai37
AMAZON: AMZN Big Short Set Up Amazon AMZN Short Set- Up We've seen this pattern so many times before in Bitcoin...just 100 times faster. It's the best practice you can get for life outside crytos, life in the slow-lane. It's broken the parallel and now is trying to sneak back up the underside. This pattern usually signals that this is going to break to the downside very soon now. When it does, follow it short looking for 1353 minimum and quite likely 1266 or lower. Stops above the little dynamic now holding up price when broken.
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by sumastardon
ETHUSD: Next Trade Points from Here ETHEREUM/DOLLAR: ETHUSD Next Trade Points from Here Three waves down and a bear flag/pennant sitting above a potential bull flag at the bottom of the run. The low was off the longer term dynamic support line too. Eth is trying to turn here but is depending on Bitcoin to help it break free of the downtrend from here. As things stand it's a speculative buy on dips back to 516 with a stop below 510 and becomes a stronger buy for swing traders only once 562 has been re- taken and held by the bulls in this argument. It should then attract more buyers and rally to 630-635. A good near term trade if we see it materialise, and probably needing Bitcoin to break above 8600 and hold for it to happen. Returning to the downside from here, ETH must continue to hold at 516 on dips - any failure to do so by more than 5 points will tip it back into bear hands again and force it lower to 481 at least, and more likely to revisit lows at 452-450 again where it will stand a good chance of double bottoming before the next rally attempt resumes.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by sumastardon
1
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Breaking Higher Again - follow with stops Bitcoin Coinbase Chart Breaking Higher Again 10:42gmt/05:42est It's popped the upper parallel and is now in process of trickling back down the same parallel - so now we need to see a higher low set on this decline - maybe at 10333-10300 and if not off the lower dynamic support line...that is the signal we need to get long again from here. So far this looks OK though and is trying to turn back up again. On downside, if wrong, Bitcoin has to break below 10150 on Coinbase to trigger any further shorts with stops 100 higher if triggered at any point from here Latest Update 11:07gmt/06:07est Bitcoin Coinbase Chart This is a natural spot for dayt traders who bought the lows to close out off the first test of the upper dynamic from the underside at 10550...this next decline has to make a higher low now to show that the uptrend remains in tact. So far the selling is light and a break above the upper dynamic should attract more buyers as day traders get long again once broken. Follow that break higher if not long already with stops below 10500
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by sumastardon
1
FTSE 100: UK100 Key levels and Trade Set-ups todayFTSE 100 UK 100GBP Key Levels and Trade set-ups today This chart shows FTSE's great 9 year rally from start point at the lows of 2009 to the end point on 11.01.18. This cycle forms part a longer 9 year year cycle that was described and shown in last FTSE comment. The lines of support and resistance are clear and should be helpful in coming trades... FTSE has bounced excatly where it should have (last comment) and rallied to exactly where it should have within 3 points or so. Day traders and bottom fishers have closed out where you'd expect looking at the lines and now left FTSE vulnerable to further selling pressure...looks quite likely to restest the 7085 line here and if this cannot hold it will fall away further still to 6904 and just under to 6870 - but it should try to put up a fight at 7085 if tested later - it's most likely the key level today, being positive above here and negative below. On upside it has to break above 7210 and hold to trigger a long up to 7294. Markets are due to remain voolatile - A break below/above any blue line should lead to a test of the next one. But run stops around 30 points higher/lower than the trigger levels and trail up/down. Still expect a bottom to be reached between 3rd and 10th March as per last comment but it can whipsaw in between and should present some decent trades (with stops) as a result.
OANDA:UK100GBP
by sumastardon
FTSE 100 Index: UKX - Cycle High - Short Set-Ups with triggersFTSE 100 Index: UKX Long Term Time Cycles in FTSE Index After rising 10% at the start of the 2018 FTSE has fallen all the way back its start point for the year. Up 10% and back down 10% in 6 short weeks. The action looks unlikely to stop now. In fact it could be just beginning. Probably the greatest trader who ever lived, WD 0.61% Gann , told us to measure time cycles from high tolow and low to high as well as high to high and low to low and look for potential changes in trend as these hiddden cyclesrepeat themselves down through time. Previous cycle highs identified the exact date of the high in 2007 as well as thesubsequent high reached in April 2015 just at the point thatmarkets began a 10 month 20+% correction (for more detailsplease PM) . This cycle marks the period from 10.03.09 majorcrash low through to the next major cycle low on 06.03.09. From major cycle low to low is 9 years ...which now brings us, after a 9 year long bull run, to the coming 23 to 27 days,culminating in the anniversary dates between 3rd march and 10th March 2018... FTSE is already teetering on the brink of critical support at 7092. It has to cling on here on Monday for any failure will tip this index into bearish territory and trigger a short back to 6868 at least - and then if this level in turn gives way back to 6680-6637. Beneath here the next major support potential lies at the lower parallel and below here at 5777. So if 7090 gives way on Monday by more than 10 points look to short this index with stops above 7099, targeting 6870 initially, then the 6680-6637 range if 6860 fails to hold during Monday. It's quite probable that should 7090 fail come Monday, this Index will fall away in stages to test the lower parallel at 6004 on around 5th March - and only then bounce away to the upside again.This will present some wonderful shorting opportunities along the descent. However, in the very near term it's likely that contrarian traders will look to go long here, simply because the stop is so close (20 points away maximum now) but ready to reverse short as above if 7090gives way by more than 10 points. Time, as always, tells.
TVC:UKX
by sumastardon
S&P 500 Index Buy Set Up off Swing LowsS&P 500 Potential Buy Set-Ups Clear continuation pattern as it rinses out every stale bull who jumped in at the first big impulse wave upwards and on the wrong side of this now...should make a sweet double bottom or close to - the first long is a speccy buy with stop either under today'slow at 2615 or at lowest under that last low to left of chart at 2590 - and it's another buy/add on breaking of the upper parallel. So long as this holds at the lows today it will rally back to the highs and beyond - a 10% rise...this would just be the start and we can potentially get in close to the swing low of a major and very rarely occurring dip - last one was 2 years ago precisely.
SP:SPXLong
by sumastardon
1
Netflix: NFLX Potential Short then long set-upNETFLIX NFLX Buy Neflix and Chill - but where? Volatility returning to the market is throwing up some interesting short term trading opportunites, with Netflix being a prime example... The nearest support lies at 261. If this fails today it should open up a shorting opportunity back to 228-245 range. The 245 level is important, being the start of the gap...should tghis level then fail today it opens a second short back to 228-227 where it should rally from so can consider reversing the short here with stops below 226. And if wrong here, and there is no rally and 226 then fails it opens yet another shorting opportunity back to 204-203 where it will definitely bounce away again looking for a retest of the highs again.
NASDAQ:NFLX
by sumastardon
GBPUSD Two Short set-ups for GBPGBPUSD Sterling pinged off the next blue line at 1.4317 and leaving pins on the daily chart - like a crypto in super-slow-mo - this is moving at one frame per second compared to crypto-world rate of speed at 240 frames per second - same fractal/ratio. Although GBP is sitting back on the nearest support it doesn't look likely to create much of a rally, just a bit of bear closing. Eventually 1.3832 should give way and it will fall to 1.3633, a 200 pip short when triggered. It may fall further still, to 1.3480. Two potential short trades here, trades, one for 200 pips and second for 150
Short
by sumastardon