SPX's Deviation from 200D MA since inception's day 1957Hey guys what's up
I am including all the data here so you can copy, share or edit it on Microsoft apps. feel free to reuse of redistribute all
my work to our trading view community or out side it.
March's low is most likely a fresh new cycle to say the least " believe it or not" with out bias you would come to this conclusion
one way or another and you should accept if before time proof that for you. (even if we get big corrections this is how financial markets behave : -) )
Moreover i probably did allot of mistakes here and there, missed allot of important details ... but i did everything with most to my ability : -)
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SUMMERY: (RED #s)
During each new cycle we usually get the higher & highest
numbers. the more we go into the cycle the more
the deviations get lower. Moreover, we do get
allot of NOT worthy to mention pullbacks even though
we have higher number of deviation !!! .
--------------So, no GOLDEN RULE here at all.---------------
wish you all the best.
**************************************************************
SUMMERY: (BLUE #s)
Deviation below 200d MA is not that common on a daily
chart, and i assume it would be more rare on a weekly
chart. (5 r single digits-4r20s—9 r teens-1is30s-2r40s-
1is50( Most extremes since inception r (54-47-46-32)
------------"40 % 10-19"/"22% below 10"/"8% 20s"---------
BUY BUY BUY BBUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
-----------WHEN YOU SEE THOSE "3" EXTREEMS.-------------
Deviation below 200d MA.
-8
-25.37
-6.08
-19.91
- 7.41
-32.88
-9.94
-46.18
-15.63
-22.66
-11.51
-11.40
-27.48
-14.60
-12.49
-47.69 2000
-54.77 2007
-16.48
-9 %
-12.21 %
-15.13
-27.81 covid-19
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SUMMERY: (GREEN #s)
Some of the biggest corrections/crashes/crisis
came from small percentages of deviation from
SPX's price !!! That's a key note to be observed
closely. In Contrary to the general view that the
more we go the more likely we have a stronger crash
---------- DATA says this is WRONG!!!---------------------
Since the inception of Standard & Poor's 500 :
--------------------------------------------------------
11.79 Covid -19 crash
6.4 % 2018 correction
3.45 % 2015 correction
12.21 % 2011
6.95 % 2007 crisis
6.11 % 2000 crisis
14.95 % 1999 correction
17 % 1998 correction
5.68 % 1994 10 % pullback
7.20 % 1990 correction 20 %
17.92 % 1987 crisis
20 1980 correction
13 % 1980 correction
8 % 1976 big Correction
9.97 % 1973 big crash
11.85 % 1968 big correction
5.96 % 1966 big correction
8.47 % 1962 big correction
8.62 1959 big correction
-----------------------------
we have a range of 20%- 3.45 %
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summery : (Orange)
the largest 15 crashes in the history of SPX since
inception has no relation what so ever. 53 % of
corrections came from double digits % deviation!!!
47% of correction came from single digit deviations
The largest crashes since 1957 (inception):
----------------------------------------------------
11.79 35.27 covid-19 crash
6.45 20.23
12.21 21.59
6.95 57 2007 crash
13.18 50 2000 crash
14.69 22.52
7.2 20.32
17.92 36
20.39 28.08
13.76 21.58
8.02 20
9.97 52.08 big crash 73
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
8.74 29.26 1962 big crash
------------- So it is 50-50 chance !!!!!----------------
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All Deviation above 20 + except for few where at
the beginning of new cycle. In another word they
came all after big crashes/corrections. Therefore
getting these high numbers of deviation is
confirming YES confirming that we are beginning
a new cycle.: 18 % of these double digits pullbacks.
82 % of these are a single digit pullback.
After March's low we r getting high #s(new Cycle)!!
All Deviation above 20 +
-----------------------------------
20.63 6.55 Beg.
20.81 5.57 Beg.
21.22 7.18
20.49 4 N.wm Beg. 1982
20.63 3.27 beg. 1982
20.85 6.24 Beg. 1982
23.78 9.03 Beg. 1982
20.39 28.08
21.23 15.54 Beg.
23.90 5.52 Beg.
20.15 4.69 Beg
*******************************************************************
Summery: All deviations between 15-19.99
20 % of these we get a double digit pullback
80 % is a shocking single digits pullback !!!!!
All deviation between 15-19.99
--------------------------------------
16.17 10.37
16.54 7.17
17.11 5.07 N.WM
16 13.07
19.76 6.49
16.53 10.29
15 6.03
15.97 6.43
15.46 3.5 N.WM
16.82 3.47 N.WM
17.92 36
19 9.33
16.23 9.12
18.87 4.86
19.77 5.05
16.78 7.63
18.14 7.79
18.31 15.47 Beg.
19.69 3.60 Beg.
*****************************************************************
Summery: All deviation between 10-14.99
36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks
up to 64 % of the time single digits pullbacks.
Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!!
All deviation between 10-14.99
Deviation pullbacks
13.42 8.9
11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27
13.91 11.84
13.81 7.58
12.24 10.96
12.21 21.59
12.35 17.16
14.70 9.26
11.28 8.55 Beg.
14.14 5.35 Beg.
13.18 2000 crash
14.13 13.13
14.69 22.52
11.76 7.39
13.95 5.96 N.WM
10.79 11.04
12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg.
13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg.
14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg.
14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg.
13.89 9.26
10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg.
10.93 10.14
10.69 8.28
10.14 3.18 N.wm
12.90 4.03 N.wm
13.76 21.58
13.79 15.15
10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
13.87 8.36 Beg.
12.39 5.06 Beg.
11.83 4.41 Beg.
13.86 4.42 Beg.
14.97 3.36 Beg.
10.82 1.86 Beg.
Summery: 36 % of the time we will get double digit pullbacks up to 64 % of the time single digists pullbacks.Therefor this area is favoring small dips !!!!
***********************************************************************
************************************************************************************************************************
Summery: All Deviations between 5-9.99. 28 % of
them double digits pullbacks 72% single digits pullbacks.
Either, my 42 sample is not enough and in this area i am
wrong, or things get missy around these numbers !!!!!!!
All Deviations between 5-9.99
Deviation pullbacks
6.94 6.94
8.89 6.87
6.75 7.64
6.45 20.23
8.92 8.87
6.32 4.76
6.99 5.16
6.78 9.88
9.23 6.12
9.44 8.90
6.95 2007 crash
7.67 12
9.02 6.69
5.75 8.09
6.95 7.32
9.89 10.35
5.68 9.70
7.7 5.36
9.22 6.75
7.2 20.32
8.74 11.30
7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg.
8.46 14.68
9.69 11.73
9.06 4.05
8. 9.97 52.08 big crash 73
8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 02 20
8.89 8.50
9.72 4.66
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
6.32 4.41
6.16 10.94
6.37 4.87
8.90 4.19
8.69 4.47
8.98 2.83 N.wm
8.40 7.59
8.74 29.26 big crash 62
8.69 3.89
8.62 9.32
************************************************************************
Summery: All deviation below 5 % off 200D MA
is just 50 % double digits % 50 % single digits
pullbacks.
All deviation below 5 :
2.66 14.50
3.45 12.28
4.94 6.16
3.7 6.71
4.83 3.96
4.65 6.75
4.62 11.35
4.16 13.63 big crash
***********************************************************************
******************************************
All raw data
Total of most extended deviation
since the inception of S&P 500 in
1957 :
----------------------------------------
Deviation----pullback/corrections
?????????????????????????????????
13.42 8.9
16.17 10.37
11.79 covid-19 crash 35.27
6.94 6.94
8.89 6.87
6.75 7.64
6.45 20.23
8.92 8.87
13.91 11.84
6.32 4.76
2.66 14.50
3.45 12.28
6.99 5.16
6.78 9.88
9.23 6.12
13.81 7.58
9.44 8.90
12.24 10.96
12.21 21.59
12.35 17.16
14.70 9.26
20.63 6.55
20.81 5.57
6.95 2007 crash
7.67 12
9.02 6.69
5.75 8.09
4.94 6.16
6.95 7.32
11.28 8.55 Beg.
14.14 5.35 Beg.
6 2000 crash
13.18 2000 crash
9.89 10.35
14.13 13.13
16.54 7.17
14.69 22.52
17.11 5.07 N.WM
11.76 7.39
16 13.07
19.76 6.49
16.53 10.29
13.95 5.96 N.WM
10.79 11.04
15 6.03
12.77 3.95 N.WM Beg.
13.99 2.59 N.WM Beg.
14.57 14.57 N.WM Beg.
5.68 9.70
7.7 5.36
3.7 6.71
4.83 3.96
9.22 6.75
4.65 6.75
14.01 5.59 N.WM Beg.
15.97 6.43 N.WM Beg.
7.2 20.32
8.74 11.30
13.89 9.26
15.46 3.5 N.WM
16.82 3.47 N.WM
10.80 4.76 N.wm Beg.
7.40 7.43 N.wm Beg.
17.92 36
19 9.33
10.93 10.14
16.23 9.12
18.87 4.86
19.77 5.05
21.22 7.18
12.48 5.58
10.69 8.28
11.21 canceled this one too close
10.14 3.18 N.wm
12.90 4.03 N.wm
8.46 14.68
16.78 7.63
20.49 4 N.wm Beg.
20.63 3.27 beg.
20.85 6.24 Beg.
23.78 9.03 Beg.
16.05 canceled with in a crash
20.39 28.08
18.14 7.79
13.76 21.58
9.69 11.73
9.06 4.05
13.79 15.15
4.9 canceled within a crash
8.02 20
10/13/13 6/6/4.70 N.W
21.23 15.54 Beg.
23.90 5.52 Beg.
9.97 52.08 big crash 73
8.23/9/10 6.23/6.18/6.55 N.W
18.31 15.47 Beg.
19.69 3.60 Beg.
20.15 4.69 Beg.
11.85 37.12 big crash 1969
4.62 11.35
8.89 8.50
9.72 4.66
13.87 8.36 Beg.
5.96 23.69 big crash 1966
6.32 4.41
6.16 10.94
6.37 4.87
8.90 4.19
8.69 4.47
8.98 2.83 N.wm
8.40 7.59
12.39 5.06 Beg.
11.83 4.41 Beg.
8.74 29.26 62 big crash
8.69 3.89
13.86 4.42 Beg.
14.97 3.36 Beg.
10.82 1.86 Beg.
4.16 13.63 big crash
8.62 9.32
15 Beg.
15 Beg.
15 Beg.
