Trade Idea for AUDUSDAlthough we are not keen to open a new trade position yet, we thought it might be useful to provide some analysis for the Aussie, just because we enjoy doing it. So here goes!
Current momentum for Aussie is definitely bearish, although recent unemployment data has been much better then expected. However the low commodity prices is putting a cap on the AUD, especially with copper and iron prices printing fresh lows. Looking at the weekly chart above, the AUDUSD was trading within a range for the past 2 weeks, and last week managed to gain selling pressure as commodities were dumped, although it recovered on Friday, but closedat 0.7160, the previous support now supposedly turned resistance.
Clearly the rally for the past month to test 0.7380, the level capping the trend as bearish, failed, with selling momentum back on, and forming a double top in the process. With this failure, we can expect to see price head back towards 0.6900. After last friday's recovery however, traders who want a high possibility trade should wait for the bearish momentum to resume.
We have below the 4hr chart, which shows a strong recovery prior to the end of the US session on Friday, but still capped below 0.7200. Further bearish signals on the lower timeframe charts will provide a entry to go short on the back of bearish momentum. with the speed of the decline, not very strong at the momentum, respecting neither the 8 nor 21 EMA.
Cheers!
FX Genesis Fund Manager
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