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Trade Idea for AUDUSDAlthough we are not keen to open a new trade position yet, we thought it might be useful to provide some analysis for the Aussie, just because we enjoy doing it. So here goes! Current momentum for Aussie is definitely bearish, although recent unemployment data has been much better then expected. However the low commodity prices is putting a cap on the AUD, especially with copper and iron prices printing fresh lows. Looking at the weekly chart above, the AUDUSD was trading within a range for the past 2 weeks, and last week managed to gain selling pressure as commodities were dumped, although it recovered on Friday, but closedat 0.7160, the previous support now supposedly turned resistance. Clearly the rally for the past month to test 0.7380, the level capping the trend as bearish, failed, with selling momentum back on, and forming a double top in the process. With this failure, we can expect to see price head back towards 0.6900. After last friday's recovery however, traders who want a high possibility trade should wait for the bearish momentum to resume.  We have below the 4hr chart, which shows a strong recovery prior to the end of the US session on Friday, but still capped below 0.7200. Further bearish signals on the lower timeframe charts will provide a entry to go short on the back of bearish momentum. with the speed of the decline, not very strong at the momentum, respecting neither the 8 nor 21 EMA.  Cheers! FX Genesis Fund Manager For more analysis, please visit our page at www.fxgenesisfm.com
Short
by FxGenesis
EUR/NZD to retest lows of 1.6020To recap the movement for EURNZD last week, the pair traded lowerafter a bearish pinbar on the weekly chart from the previous week as the EUR remains pretty much weaker, after the Fed raised rates and economic figures from Europe came in mixed. Monday and Tuesday saw the EUR/NZD trade lower, after which traded pretty much sideways as commodity currencies took a hit, as crude oil fell to the lowest levels since the 2009 financial crisis. Current within a range between 1.6240 and 1.6020, we need to see a break below the low's last week for further downside moves. The speed of the current decline seems to be respecting the 21 EMA on the 4hr chart, and we will use this as a guideline for our stop levels, which is currently placed near 1.6235. With a pretty quiet week for major economicc data coming up, the pair is likely to consolidate within the range, which is why we plan not to move our stops relative to the 21 EMA for this week. We will need to watch what happens at the 1.6020 lows of last week as a failure to break below, will form a double bottom formation, leading to a recovery for EUR/NZD, back towards 1.6400. Fundamentally, NZD seems to be bearish but the medium term outlook should allow the NZD to improve slightly, from previous comments about interest rate cuts being put on hold, and GDP results in line with expectations. We are however, worried about EUR strengthening, as the bearish cycle of the EUR decline seems to be coming to an end. We would like to see EUR/USD break below 1.0800 for further declines, which is highly likely, given that the Fed has tightened, and renewed dollars should push the EUR lower, as it is still structurally weak. For more analysis, please visit our page at www.fxgenesisfm.com
Short
by FxGenesis