ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.08.26📌 A quiet few weeks and enjoying the last few days of summer before things get very active in markets for the rest of the year and into 2021.
Global Equity buyers received their reward for their braveness play: overshoots are a weakness.
See diagram below.
The mysterious 2650 lows were held from the Giant Panda (PBOC), when retail threatened the attack down to make the recovery difficult the monetary side played the defence. At the same time, it also makes the inevitable far worse as the energy needed to get back to 2750/2650 is minimal. The book is very thin.
Buyers have made good use of the swing higher, ignoring Covid cases and deaths and totally looking through US/China protectionism. Sellers have played the waiting game and distributed on the test of resistance 3400/3350:
Prepare for a parry away as the ever present threat of covid approaches and puts further lockdown threats in play. The risk of a full blown monetary crisis has put Equities under permanent threat as the weakness comes from confidence. If consumers are not confident enough to return, or will question if clients are even able to meet, then it will not matter the amount of stimulus as the issue is far bigger than central banks.
A strong move here would be to push the tempo and threaten the immediate breakdown. Live portfolio flows and chart updates resuming as 'normal' from Jackson tomorrow.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Shanghaineutral
ridethepig | SHCOMP Market Commentary 2020.01.31As usual thanks for keeping your support coming with likes, comments and etc... Lets get started with a round of important chart updates coming today (which btw is extraordinarily late after a week ban). I would like you to note the position arising here looks as though its "business as usual" for the dip buyer crowd, whereas sellers are seeking salvation in a momentum breakdown against the support.
The 2793.xx has now been exposed and the base is open for a typical attack. The macro cycle swing down started here when we traded the highs in April year:
As we know, the philosophy of a swing which we have dealt with can wield sound reason for the evaluation of any possible scenarios where flows are involved. But as this example will show, the theory of swings we have widely mentioned in previous charts can also be useful to highlight the notion that battlefields exist.
So we are talking here about an area which is needed to break in order to form the breakdown as a first premise. I would recommend that you try to technically understand the two different sides in play, notably should we fail to breakdown then the swing to the extreme topside with a rebound through the red line as the other scenario (this will come via coronavirus fading). It is possible to remain indifferent to direction without great difficult in the game.
German Equities are now forming a high and already appear to be coming off:
To secure the breakdown we will need Europe and NY to keep the pressure on today, SHCOMP is closed till Monday so gaps expected! Good luck!
Stochastic Flashes Sell, But Has Changed BeforeWhile moving averages at the weekly level only half bullish, the stochastic is now consistently flashing to sell while RSI heads in that direction. While this has been reversed in the past such as 2017, conditions are different. Recently, Trump indicated a trade war detente may not come until June if it comes at all as he threatens to keep tariffs on against the Chinese if they don't clean up their act, summing up his sentiment not my own. Overall, trade wars are for now here to stay and could put on downward pressure on this index as had been the case for mostly of 2018.
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