China Stocks: What to Expect When Markets Reopen Stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong took off last week and continued their climb on Monday, posting their best single-day rally in 16 years. This surge came after several announcements from Beijing aimed at boosting the country’s economy.
But now, The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for China’s National Day celebrations, and Hong Kong’s market will also shut on Oct. 1. However, U.S.-listed China ETFs will still be trading, so when the Chinese exchanges reopen on Oct. 7, we could see big moves as global investors get ahead of the Chinese market.
China’s stock market is known for its wild swings, mainly because retail investors make up about two-thirds of the trading. That means we might see some significant volatility once the markets open back up.
Shenzhen
China 50 Potential Bullish FlagAs S&P500 and global indices near an all-time high, the Chinese indexes are lagging. Nonetheless, price has managed to recover from its low in May. Now price is pulling back to test the 17750 level. The current pullback resembles a bullish flag.
ShenZhen Component Index ended its 3 months retracement. Bullish
ShenZhen Component Index 3 months retracement ended.
Sideways retracement for 3 months without lower lows created.
Bullish months ahead.
Shenzhen Component Index Holding Up WellShenzhen Component Index
- Remains solid holding up above its Mid term Trend Support.
- A breakout from its sideways resistant will bring the index to go for Super Bull Run.
- Downside risk remain easily at its Mid Term Trend Support. A violation will serve as 1st warning.
- Long Term Trend Support (Red Line) will be the crucial support in the long run. A violation will mean the index is heading into a Bear Market.
Overall Long on ShenzhenShort-term short, but overall I'm still positive on this index. That said, this can turn ugly very, very, very quickly as the Shenzhen is the most speculative index in Asia for sure, maybe even the world. Definitely the highest volatility. So, if we do see a short-term pullback, this could quickly be followed by 5 percent gains on the day that the US and China sign a trade war deal which is expected to happen sometime in April. Overall though, I'm net positive. And when that trade war deal comes, that's the day I'll sell because I'm not sure what is driving this Chinese market upwards with follow through given the fact that the Chinese economy is still slowing down which should really put into question why we are seeing such huge gains in their three main indexes.
China 500 (Shenzhen Composite) could drop to 1100-1200Chinese index could drop to the trendline within the WXY correction.
This area is located at the 1100-1200 level.
The trade war with US is in the background.
Today is the Chinese public holiday (Dragon Boats Festival).
Tomorrow we could see the gap down.
Invalidation above wave E (2047)
