Shipping prices increasing, Oil going lower, cancel each other?By the graph included, we can see that Asian container freight rate prices are skyrocketing. This is due to disruption & stock.
This is good sign for the overall economy, means not in recession.
With news that Trump is being called the next prez will #oil trend lower?
Maybe one can offset the other?
LSE:INDU SP:SPX NASDAQ:NDX AMEX:USO
Shipping
Castor Maritime: Setting Up For a Falling Wedge BreakoutCastor Maritime is a Maritime Shipping stock that's been on my radar along with its falling wedge, but I have only just recently gotten interested in entering after seeing the quarterly earnings finally start to turn around along with seeing the price action finally test the 21-week SMA as support. With all of this being done it is worth considering the fact that CTRM's PE Ratio is currently about 1.5x which is pretty low even for this sector. I think we may be setting up for an ultimate Bullish Breakout that would take CTRM up to the 61.8% Retrace up at $8.94
DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS (Global Conflict Summary EDITION)Per the council of foreign relations, these are the following current global conflicts. I've included a brief description of each conflict. It's important to understand these if you're planning or already are investing in defense stocks.
Per TA, I've labeled bearish price targets, bullish price targets, relevant trends. It looks overvalued from analysis on ITA, but there is upside. I'd say that short term probably favors bulls (talking maybe weeks if not less), mid term probably favors the bears (multiple months), long term will likely favor bulls, but it will depend on the movement we see over FEB and March.
Global Conflict Summary
Americas
Criminal Violence in Mexico
The criminal violence in Mexico involves various organizations such as Sinaloa, Los Zetas, Tijuana/AFO, Juárez/CFO, Beltrán Leyva, Gulf, La Familia Michoacana, the Knights Templar, and Cartel Jalisco Nuevo Generación (CJNG). The violence is attributed to the increase in crime rates and the limited interventions by the state and municipal police.
Instability in Haiti
The instability in Haiti involves the government, opposition parties, and the international community. The crisis revolves around the dispute over the presidential term and the government’s inability to control skyrocketing prices of commodities.
Instability in Venezuela
Venezuela is facing an unprecedented social and humanitarian collapse due to poor economic policies, political conflict, and the international community’s unsuccessful attempts to bring about positive change. The conflict involves the government under President Nicolás Maduro and opposition groups.
Asia
Instability in Afghanistan
Since the Taliban reclaimed control of Afghanistan in 2021, the country has further plunged into political and economic instability. The conflict involves the Afghan government, the Taliban, and various local and international actors.
Territorial Disputes in the South China Sea
China’s sweeping claims of sovereignty over the sea have antagonized competing countries. The key parties involved in this territorial dispute are China, the Philippines, and the US.
North Korea Crisis
North Korea could resort to nuclear weapons in a crisis as it is making significant progress toward implementing a more robust nuclear strategy. The crisis involves North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Japan, and other international actors.
Instability in Pakistan
Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and external conflict. Extremism and intolerance of diversity and dissent have grown, threatening the country’s prospects for social cohesion and stability. The conflict involves the Pakistani government, opposition groups like the Pakistan Muslim League and the Pakistan Peoples Party, and militant groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Conflict Between India and Pakistan
Since 1947, India and Pakistan have been involved in a number of wars, conflicts, and military standoffs, with the Kashmir conflict serving as the catalyst for every war between the two states. The conflict primarily involves India and Pakistan, with the disputed region of Kashmir being a major point of contention.
Confrontation Over Taiwan
Tensions are rising over Taiwan as China’s power and assertiveness grows, competition between the U.S. and China spreads, and the Taiwanese people develop a distinct identity increasingly disassociated from the mainland. The key parties involved in this conflict are China, Taiwan, and the US.
Civil War in Myanmar
The civil war in Myanmar escalated significantly in response to the 2021 military coup d’état and the subsequent violent crackdown on anti-coup protests. The conflict involves the National Unity Government, People’s Defence Force, Chinland Defence Force, Chin National Defence Force, Karenni Nationalities Defence Force, and other ethnic armed organizations against the State Administration Council and Tatmadaw.
Europe and Eurasia
War in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine involves Ukraine and Russia. The conflict is over the sovereignty of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, which Russia annexed in 2014.
Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict involves Armenia and Azerbaijan. The dispute is over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is governed by ethnic Armenians.
Middle East and North Africa
Conflict in Syria
The conflict in Syria involves the Syrian government, opposition groups, and various international actors. The civil war began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring protests and has since escalated into a multi-sided conflict involving numerous factions and foreign powers.
Instability in Iraq
The instability in Iraq involves the Iraqi government, various ethnic and religious groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from sectarian tensions, political instability, and the presence of ISIS.
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict involves Israel, Palestine, and various international actors. The conflict is over the sovereignty of the Palestinian territories and the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel.
Sub-Saharan Africa
Conflict in the Central African Republic
The conflict in the Central African Republic involves the government, various rebel groups, and international actors. The conflict stems from political instability, ethnic tensions, and control over the country’s rich natural resources.
Conflict in Ethiopia
The conflict in Ethiopia involves the Ethiopian government, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, and various ethnic and regional groups. The conflict stems from political tensions, ethnic disputes, and disagreements over the country’s system of ethnic federalism.
Please note that this is a brief summary and does not cover all aspects of the conflicts. For more detailed information, please conduct further research.
FDX - BEARISH SCENARIO
FedEx reduced its yearly revenue forecast due to tough competition with UPS and other delivery rivals in a slow holiday season, causing its shares to drop nearly 8%. The company now expects a slight revenue decline instead of previously anticipated steady results. FedEx shares fell to $258.30 in after-hours trading from $280 at Tuesday's close. To protect profits, FedEx cut costs and gained business from UPS before the expiration of UPS's contract covering about 340,000 Teamsters-represented workers. UPS fought back by covering early termination fees for customers who switched to FedEx. Additionally, FedEx plans to buy back $1 billion of common stock in fiscal year 2024.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Shipping is a strong indicator!Shipping can be used a leading indicator to gauge where the market as a whole is going. Just like the XHB the home building chart, I don't trade this. I only use it a guide to get a into the drivers of the market. If shipping is up, then the markets will follow, is building up, so too will the market.
As we can see, shipping made a low last year in September and has made higher highs since then. we now just wait and watch the indicators for bullish crosses that seem to be building upward. A Stochastic cross above the 20 on this 3 week chart is what we are looking for and is considered bullish. Same with the MacD, we are looking for the beige line to cross the purple line. Once these happen on the three week we will then change to the monthly and look for the same.
The moving average I'm using is the CM_Ultimate_MA . Price action moving above this line and turning it green is a very positive move as well.
Once again to be clear, we have an up trend in the shipping, if it continues then the recession is likely over and the markets will move along with it. It will be even more likely on the monthly confirmation of price action and indicators.
I will link the XHB home builders chart I did last year down below.
Best regards in 23
WeAreSat0shi
IMPP: Potential Bullish Consolidation In Certain ShipownersWith BDRY (The Baltic Dry Index ETF), finally going up, we may start to see more shipper stocks go up. We've already started to see an uptick in SB, GASS, TK, and TNK, now we might start to see some action across the entire sector.
I still would want to focus on those that are giving us at least a somewhat decent pattern, and IMPP in this case is both cheap and has potentially formed a Double Bottom with Bullish Divergence above the previous level of resistance. Given that it focuses on Oil and owns Ships, I think it can start rising with the Baltic Dry Index, especially if we get more demand for oil in the coming months.
Teekay Tankers: Bullish Cup with Handle Targeting $61.82Teekay Tankers is a Marine Shipping company that is a Subsidiary of The Teekay Corporation, and it mainly focuses on the Shipping and Storage of oil. Recently, the BDI has begun to rise, and oil demand has picked up, leading to increased demand for dry bulk shipping. Despite this one already being up a bunch, I do think it has formed a nice enough Cup with Handle pattern here to try and play for a measured move breakout up to around $61.82.
UPS has some, uh, GAPSI was looking into UPS as a possible investment, and wanted to get a price, but after looking at the chart, I'm not sure it's worth it. There seems to be a lot of potential downside, including a pretty sizeable gap around $120.
With almost everyone telling me the market is going to crash, I'm thinking we won't see it crash just yet, which does allow for some return in UPS's price to around $223-$225. The question, does it bounce there or keep going? I'm not sure, which is why I'll wait for confirmation of price action, but it's looking like UPS needs to cool off a bit. The move to $108 would be around a 45%-50% drop, which really isn't out of the question as it brings us back to pre-covid levels, when the shipping craze started.
Thoughts?
UPS Confirms Lower High Bearish Consolidation Below Demand LineThe UPS price action has confirmed a Lower High Bearish Consolidation Structure below the macro Demand Line has basically done so via a secondary Head and Shoulders with PPO Confirmation thereby confirming a Bearish BAMM that will likely take us down to the 88.6% retrace at $90
GRIN. Holdings Ltd. for steady growth in global shippinJoin the smart investors who are banking on Grindrod Shipping Holdings Ltd for steady growth in the global shipping industry. With a diversified portfolio, strong financials, and experienced management team.
Diversified Shipping Services: Grindrod provides a diversified range of shipping services, including dry bulk shipping, liquid bulk shipping, and container shipping, which can potentially provide stability and reduce dependence on any single business segment.
Emerging Markets Exposure: has a significant presence in emerging markets, which can offer growth potential as these economies continue to develop and demand for shipping services increases.
Strong Financial Performance: has a history of strong financial performance, with steady revenue growth and profitability, which can indicate a well-run and efficiently managed company.
Growing Demand for Shipping Services: The global shipping industry is expected to grow as a result of increasing trade and economic activity, which can provide tailwinds for Grindrod's business.
Experienced Management Team: has an experienced management team with a strong track record of running the company and making strategic decisions, which can provide confidence to potential investors.
It's important to keep in mind that this is just one possible investment thesis and that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. It's crucial to conduct thorough research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Ranks promised - Ranks did 💪🏼ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd - provides comprehensive logistics services, the main business is container shipping
TOTAL RANKS SCORE - 74 %
🟢 Fundamentally, at the moment, the stock looks more interesting than 74% of similar companies. Let's figure out what's what. ⁉️
RANKS FINANCE SCORE - 97 %
📍Return on invested capital is 74%, Net Profit margin is 36%
📍Equity is greater than total debt, and EBITDA for the year can cover the entire net debt with might and main
📍Free cash flow return is about 200% (the company is definitely doing well financially) 💰
RANKS VALUATION SCORE - 100 %
📍 All cost multipliers are much lower than the industry average
📍 Revenue and profit are in tremendous growth, but capitalization is small
📍 However ❗ the forecast P/E screams - SELL TILL YOU CAN ❗️ 👀
WHAT'S THE CATCH?
🔴 The consensus forecast for the company's earnings is depressing 📉
RANKS FORECAST SCORE - 11 %
📍 After a rapid COVID growth in freight costs in 2020 and 2021, the market is cooling down
📍 The peak rates of container transportation ended in 2021, the entire 2022 rate is falling
📍 Most likely, the rate will come to the level of "normal" 2019, and it will not end soon
RANKS RECOMENDATIONS
🟡 If you are already a stockholder, we recommend you to keep the stock. If you are only considering buying, we recommend abstaining if you do not want to wait more than a year.
📍 The company (#ZIM) is one of the largest players in the market and has a good financial safety cushion on its balance sheet.
📍 The current dynamics of stock quotes and the macroeconomic situation contribute to the continuation of the price drop.
📍 Nevertheless, in our opinion, the company's shares can become a good asset for the future, but not in the next 12 months.
$ZIM last chance to shine$ZIM is in for a long 3 quarters with global freight rates in the gutter but after a 75% move down and a really nice reaction to the last major level ($18-19) the major HTF bull div has a shot at playing out. Specifically with wall-street running away as the massive dividend is likely to be cut in Q1 (who cares)
The main thing to consider is if this is a hold or a swing trade and with the current macro environment I think it needs to be a swing trade OR long long term hold. For the long term hold you need to examine freight rates and what ZIM was doing in 2019 (exclude bubble data from 2020-2022) DYOR and see what you think. Worth a look IMO.
The main thing is the S/R level could not be more clear... above $18 upside potential is pretty good and below $18 downside is price discovery...
8/31/22 ZIMZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. ( NYSE:ZIM )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: 4.408B
Current Price: $36.09
Breakdown Price: $33.90
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $40.75-$51.80
Price Target: $19.50-$15.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 86-91d
Contract of Interest: $ZIM 12/16/22 30p
Trade price as of publish date: $2.50/contract
5/25/22 SBSafe Bulkers, Inc. ( NYSE:SB )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: $571.751M
Current Price: $4.72
Breakout price: $4.85
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $4.20-$4.35
Price Target: $5.55-$6.00
Estimated Duration to Target: 287-295d
Contract of Interest: $SB 1/20/23 5c
Trade price as of publish date: $0.80/contract
5/18/22 SBLKStar Bulk Carriers Corp. ( NASDAQ:SBLK )
Sector: Transportation (Marine Shipping)
Market Capitalization: $3.267B
Current Price: $30.65
Breakout price: $32.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $30.55-$26.80
Price Target: $39.60-$40.00 (4th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 225-232d (4th)
Contract of Interest: $SBLK 11/18/22 30c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.00/contract
CRAZY OPPORTUNITY! 😈 Hi there, Yurii Domaranskyi here.
Risk vs Reward = 1 to 44.83 ✨
It means if you risk here 100$ you may make 4483$ Not bad, huh?
Revenue of $54.64M (+683.9% Y/Y).
EBITDA $27.9M for the three months ended March 31, 2022, as compared to $2.6M for the three months ended March 31, 2021; and
Cash and restricted cash of $84M as of March 31, 2022, as compared to $43.4M as of Dec. 31, 2021.