SHOP
AMZN These are the things I look for when drawing my levels. I don't use any indicators because I believe they can be misleading and cause an inadvertent bias. I look at a trade from multiple angles. Its not as simple as entering into a trade just because a stock broke a level. You have to align your trade with News events, Upgrades, Strength of sector, Strength of market etc..
1. Analyze price action
I look at how many times a stock fails at a certain resistance area.
i.. If AMZN fails at 3250 multiple times, that means that's a strong level. and when it finally does break, a big move can happen.
2. Stock Patterns
a) Pennant, Bull Flag/Bear Flag, H&S/Inverse H&S, Wedge, ascending/descending triangle
2. Correlation with SPX/SPY
a) Is AMZN moving up while SPX is moving down? This indicates that AMZN price action is strong. Is AMZN moving down with SPX moving up? This indicates that AMZN price action is weak.
b) You also have to look at what the stocks in the sector you are trading are doing. Say AMZN does break 3250 but the tech sector is weak that day, and SPX is weak, this can drag AMZN down.
3. News.
I check pre-market for news every morning. Did the stock get an upgrade/downgrade? Is there any news being anticipated?
If you are are patient and wait for breakouts at key levels, these types of trades can present a great risk/reward ratio. You don't need to trade everyday. You can make 25-30 trades a year and make $100k+ relatively easily while only risking a small amount of money. Don't be in a rush to trade everyday. Preserving capital and just waiting for the best setup is 80% of trading.
SHOP to test 1108 soonShopify is flying after breaking through it's symmetrical triangle the other day and also because of the 21% increase in online sales(highest ever) on Black Friday. SHOP looks to have resistance at 1058 and 1108 but with this momentum looks to break through 1058 soon. With this time of consolidation this may be the breakout moment much higher......
SHOP 1D BULLISH FLAG LONG TRADEBull Flags are a Range type pattern.
Bull Flag Ranges are repeatable trading chart patterns.
Descending Bull Flag chart patterns will have a directional bias (Long Trade) depending on the previous incoming trend.
Each chart pattern will have defining trendlines of the support/resistance levels creating the pattern.
What ever time frame you are trading this chart pattern, wait for a candle close outside of the trendline in the direction of the breakout candle. (Our time frame preference is the Daily chart).
Add volume indicator - Volume is the amount of $ that went into a particular candle or in Forex the # of trades that took place.
Add ATR indicator - Volatility is the amount of price movement that occurred. Use the ATR to measure the price movement.
When you see descending Volume bars and descending ATR line (which indicates volatility) this shows
a dis-interest in traders to invest in this pair creating consolidation which creates the chart pattern.
Trade Management after there is a breakout candle close.
1 - Position size (compare volume bar to volume ma line).
a - Breakout candle must be 100% of volume average for a full position size.
b - If 75% of volume average then ½ position size. (To find 75% of Volume
look at the charts volume settings – divide smaller # into larger # = 75%+)
If not 75% then stand aside from the trade.
2 – If candle breaks out of a trendline, 15m before the close of the day prepare your buy/sell order.
Enter two trades. 1st trade will have a SL & TP. It will close automatically when the 1st TP is hit. 2nd
trade only has a SL and will be allowed to run. When 1st TP is hit move the SL to breakeven. Look
at ATR and prepare SL at 1.5 of ATR. Prepare 1st trade TP at 1 of ATR.
3 - SL for both trades will be 1.5 x ATR.
4 - 1st trade TP will be 1 x ATR.
5 - No TP on 2nd trade – letting profit run and adjusting SL to follow price.
6 - When 1st TP hit – move 2nd trade SL to breakeven.
7 - Adjust the 2nd trade SL to follow price.
*8 – After Breakout candle – if price closes back into chart pattern close trade don't wait for SL to be hit.
*9 - When breakout candle is more than 1 ATR from breakout candle open.
a - Enter 1st trade at candle close with ½ position size.
b - Enter 2nd trade with a pending limit order that is 1 ATR of breakout candle open.
c – Price should pullback to that pending limit order for 2nd trade.
d – If Price returns back into chart pattern close trade before SL is hit.