SHOP - Head & Shoulders but with strong volume on right shoulderVery apparent head and shoulders pattern but with unusually high volume for the right shoulder. Typically H&S have less volume on the right shoulder which demonstrates a lack of bullish enthusiasm. This makes me somewhat skeptical of a strong neck-line break and flush to the downside. One could make an case that what we have here is the fabled double head & shoulders pattern, which I read about in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends Vol 11 and have seen play out a few times. The pattern has two left shoulders and two right shoulders, basically the difference is that when the neckline breaks, price lazily breaks down.
Ok, I'm rambling.
Volume at price shows a cluster of volume starting above $300, which will take some effort to churn through. That said, each time we get to this ~$285 level we're met with strong volume, this leads me to believe that we will make additional attempts at $300, but, due to the volume traded overhead. I'm skeptical that we'll push much past $300.
So, for the next week or so, I'll maintain a neutral sentiment for swing traders as I believe the price may channel sideways. Whether we ultimately break down or break above $300 will depend on the overall market.
Feel free to leave comments, questions, observations or other in the comment section.
SHOP
SHOPIFY Going deepMAxive correction ahead. Earnings delisional.
This was my and also many other's best pick in 2018. Long term I still believe in the business. As Square they support small retailers instead of replace their logistics (Amazon).
p.s. This H&S is not regular. Neckline is not parallel to the abscissas. The slopes goes towards the leftS. Completion mean the price level to surpass leftS level.
XITK - Tech Feeling InnovativeThe SPDR Innovative Technology ETF has recently broken out of a bullish edge pattern. It also displayed bullish RSI divergence from the price action going back to August.
My price target for this ETF is around $117 which is just below the 2.61 Fibonacci Extension level.
The largest holdings of this ETF include ROKU, SNAP, SHOP, TER, & LRCX. Happy hunting.
A stock with a higher price to earnings ratio than Shopify? I'm sure this company has a lot of really compelling reasons why they're going to make their valuation make sense at some point in the future but right now the company is worth 67% more than $SHOP which is arguably the most overvalued stock with a market cap above a billion. My guess is we test $60 soon, bounce off $60 to around $65 and then proceed lower possibly all the way to $45. The company is raising guidance, but there is incredible uncertainty regarding their value proposition. We recently breached a volume support level at $75. Buyers are exhausted. Another scenario: we could bounce off the $70 level but then quickly move lower directly to $50. I'm 70% sure this stock will be at least 20% lower in the next three months.
SHOP below trend line and 10/50 SMAShopify is looking pretty bearish to me. Notice, it is trading below its big up trend line, below its 10 SMA (orange line), below its 50 SMA (blue line), and looks to be heading for the 100 SMA (purple line) as well as the next major support area (dashed line).
I am going to stay neutral for the time being, but will keep a close eye on it. If SHOP can't bounce off the 100 SMA and/or that big support area, then I will enter a short position. After the huge run-up SHOP had, a big correction would not be surprising at all.
SHOP - Daily - Inside candlestick reversalIf you follow the stock market, and the big names in it, you will know that Shopify has been on a rampage. But, SHOP has recently pulled back into a zone that I think counts as solid support. In doing this it made an inside candlestick pattern yesterday.
Inside patterns are tricky ... they can be continuation or reversals. However, this particular inside candlestick is right at good support (what I think is good support anyways), and it had good volume. This tells me that this particular inside pattern is leaning to to the reversal side for SHOP. I will keep my eyes open and look for a close above the big candle. If it does that, I may enter long and ride it up to its all-time high.
How High Is High Enough??SHOP Has just been on a tear, my goodness. I had this move marked out when it was flagging, had my buy marked at 125. Got distracted elsewhere, missed the buy, and now have just been absolutely kicking myself over this. What a run. My best estimate for a target sits around 428. May buy a put option at that point if it does in fact reach it, but I obviously don't wanna be short for very long in this name. If you have been in, congrats on the move. May wanna consider realizing some gains in the next 20 bucks or so of price action. Happy hunting and GLTA!!