SHOPIFY More downside to come. Where to buy?Shopify (SHOP) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the October 13 2022 market bottom. It recently made a Higher High but not at the top of the pattern and started to pull-back, losing most of its strength and momentum as the 1D RSI dropped to 45.50 (neutral). The price is still above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which keeps it bullish but in our opinion it won't be for long as it has started to resemble the pull-back after the December 02 2022 High.
That was on the Channel Up first bullish leg and it eventually pulled-back to the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, before the price rebounded again and almost reached the -0.382 Fib extension for a technical Higher High. Observe how similar the 1D RSI sequences are between the two.
As a result, we expect currently a downside as low as 60.50 (Fib 0.5) at least to test the 1D MA200 and then we will buy and target $94.00 (below the -0.382 Fib, projected +56% rise, which is 20% lower than the previous rise (+76.18%), similar to the difference the Feb 03 2023 High High had from its Dec 02 2022 High).
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SHOP
Shopping.io a potential 100x gem!Shopping.io is one of my 100x or die bags, meaning it either pumps or it dies. Simple as. Thus, only located a little of my portfolio into it and it will need some patience to play out.
Yet, its a working product and integrated across many different crypto platforms and stores such as Amazon. What it does? Simple shop online using crypto. Awesome use case and a simple product that you can use today - no future promises.
Why did I grab a bag? Also simple, at a market cap of about $850K, this is way undervalued. It has over 14K holders, a vibrant community and uniswap pair just has bottomed out in my opinion. One it breaks the decending resistance (yellow) and retests as support, it will fly. Only the breakout target on this chart is a 8x, but I believe it could do much more.
Be aware, risky play: high risk / high reward.
Shopify Record Breaking $4.1 billion Black Friday SalesShopify - NYSE:SHOP
Shopify is having a great year and it appears it just got better, they announced a record-breaking Black Friday, with global sales from its merchants totaling $4.1 billion. Surpassing the previous year's figures, sales saw a substantial 22% increase, peaking at an impressive $4.2 million per minute on November 24, 2023.
After 5 positive quarterly earnings in a row and with the annual earnings release in Feb 2024 around the corner, now could be a time to capitalize on this upcoming likely positive Annual Earnings Report release in Feb 2024 (released between 14th – 21st Feb).
The Chart
There is a clear long term diagonal support level under price and potential break out above key resistance level of $70.00.
We are above the 200 day smooth moving average and it is sloping upwards.
Entry into the trade should to your desired risk tolerance. Some examples of how you could enter
- Entry here allowing for potential loss of 15% (the stop)
- Entry at the $70.00 resistance line level (keeping stop at $62.00)
- Entry off a the 200 day SMA when ever that occurs and place a stop under the diagonal
resistance line (which will like be a similar 15% potential loss).
The Risk: Reward is decent at 6, however I would take a significant portion off the table at $91.00 (the 0.618 fib level) or I would at lease raise my stop at this juncture, as it will likely be some form of resistance simply because of the price support/resistance you will see to the left historically and also because it lines up nicely with the 0.618 fib extension.
You could also exit the trade entirely at $91.00 and plan a re-entry when we see what happens next. Its only a 22% play here versus a 15% loss, not great. So you need to weigh up what your comfortable with.
There is also an argument to hold the position until the annual earnings release in Feb 2024, in this case the position size is key and should be smaller, with capital set aside to average in if we re-visit the 200 or diagonal resistance.
There is a trade here and a structure to play off, its up to you how you do it. Carefully select your position size if your making a longer term play, regardless position size should be small with a potential 15% loss.
Another alternative is to cut the stop loss to 5%, however I would only do this after a significant pull back of some sort.
An interesting year for Shopify, it appears the US consumer is stronger than market commentators might think.
As always stay nimble
PUKA
Shopify Stock (NYSE: SHOP) Why The Surge TodayThird-quarter revenue of $1.7 billion was marginally higher than analysts' estimates and represented an increase of 25% over the year-ago quarter. The top-line beat affirms the momentum Shopify has been building in recent quarters, which has 70% year to date.
More businesses are signing up for subscriptions and driving steady growth in the company's merchant solutions business. But the stock is also responding to Shopify's improving profitability on the bottom line.
Operating income came in at 7% of revenue, or $122 million, reversing last year's operating loss of $346 million. The company's decision to sell its logistics operation to free up resources and lower expenses is clearly paying off, and shareholders are being rewarded.
Management expects the momentum to continue with the holiday shopping season coming up. For the fourth quarter, revenue is expected to be in the low-to-mid-twenties year over year excluding the impact of sales in the logistics business from the fourth quarter of 2022.
Moreover, free cash flow margin relative to revenue was a healthy 16% in the third quarter, and management expects it to remain in the high-teens range in Q4.
Here's an opportunity to watch
For a stock trading at a high price-to-sales ratio of 12, Shopify hit all the right notes in its latest update. The company should continue to see healthy margins and growing free cash flow over the long term, which could push the stock to new highs.
As we enter 2024, investors will want to watch Shopify's payments business following its Buy With Prime integration with Amazon. This should benefit Shopify merchants and lead to higher checkout conversion, which could boost the company's revenue.
Why I'm Going Long on ShopifyOn the weekly timeframe for NYSE:SHOP , I noticed four things immediately:
- A candle close above the bullish flag forming, indicator bullish momentum.
- NYSE:SHOP recently created swing highs at $53.70 and then broke it and bounced perfectly off of it showing that $53.70 is a KEY level.
- When price bounced off of $53.70, it was also at the 5 SMA, adding more confluence to my trade
- Lastly, I saw a divergence on the volume indicator, which is always a good sign of confluence for my trades.
Given these four reasons, I am bullish on NYSE:SHOP as of now.
Stop Loss / Take Profits
Stop loss:
The stop loss of this trade is set at $55.42, which is the most recent low.
Take Profits:
All of these take profits are set at levels that I felt were phycological levels.
My plan would be to scale out half of my position at TP1, 1/2 of the remaining position at TP2, and fully out at TP3
If TP3 is hit, this will be a 1:1.44 R:R trade.
Let me know what you think of this trade!
SHOP | Informative | Day trade planNYSE:SHOP
Price Action & Candlestick Analysis:
The price seems to be in a short-term downtrend, as it's mostly moving below the moving averages.
The long blue bar shows a strong bullish movement in one of the 15-minute intervals, but it seems the momentum could not be maintained, as the price started declining shortly after.
Moving Averages:
There are two moving averages, one short-term (potentially 50-period) and one long-term (potentially 200-period). The stock price is currently below both, which is generally a bearish signal.
The moving averages appear to be converging slightly towards the end, potentially indicating a change in trend in the future if they crossover.
Volume:
There's a significant spike in volume during the bullish move. This suggests that there was strong buying interest during that time.
Following the bullish spike, the volume seems to taper off, which can be an indication of a decrease in trading interest or momentum.
Support and Resistance Levels:
The "Bullish Line" is set at 53.48, which might act as a resistance level in the short term. If the price breaks above this with significant volume, it could lead to further bullish movement.
The "Bearish Line" is marked at 52.49. This might serve as a short-term support level. A breach below this line could indicate further downward movement.
Target prices are set at various levels, with the nearest being Target Price 1 at 52.06, then 51.37, and the lowest being 50.69. These could serve as potential support levels or price targets for a bearish move.
On the upside, if there's a change in trend, the target prices are 54.57 and 55.28.
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI seems to be hovering around the mid-level, currently at 42.70, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.
The movement of the RSI is generally flat, suggesting no strong momentum in either direction at the moment.
Overall Sentiment:
The overall sentiment from this chart seems to be slightly bearish, considering the price is below both moving averages and is closer to the bearish line.
However, the RSI is near the middle, and the moving averages are converging, so there could be potential for a change in trend. It would be crucial to watch for breakouts above resistance or breakdowns below support, coupled with volume, for a clearer direction.
Bullish on Shop.
Hello all, As you can see here on the 15-minute chart we are in a channel. I drew these lines and supply zones on the hourly chart. I am looking for a bullish breakout and retest of resistance with a high volume bounce off with good volume on the Hiekin Ashi candlestick chart. I am looking long because the market seems to go where the liquidity is. Thank you for reading my analysis.
Watch SHOP for Support on VolumeLooking for consolidation and/or bounce with volume on NYSE:SHOP this upcoming week to get long.
Overall market cooperation is likely needed. Especially mega cap tech and semis. Those charts aren't looking good. So relative strength (consolidation) may be interesting for long with stop just below prior resistance/pivot?
Bull momentum of Shopify has been completely releasedBull momentum of Shopify has been completely released
This chart shows the weekly candle chart of Shopify stocks over the past two years. The top to bottom golden section at the end of 2021 is superimposed in the figure. As shown in the figure, since the completion of the form at the end of October 2022, it has risen by 4 small bands, and theoretically, the bull momentum has been completely released! This week, Shopify's stock has made a significant pullback, returning to below the 2.382 position in the golden section of the chart! In the future, it is likely that there will be a longer period of bull rest!
SHOP Shopify Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold SHOP here:
or considered this buy area:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CAT Caterpillar prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 67usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-8-11,
for a premium of approximately $3.50.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
$SHOP Stock Shows Promising Breakout with Upside Potential
Introduction
Shopify Inc. ( NYSE:SHOP ) has been garnering significant attention in the stock market as it breaks out of multiple weeks of consolidation. This Canadian e-commerce giant has witnessed remarkable growth over the years, and recent technical analysis suggests that there is substantial upside potential for the stock. In this article, we will explore the factors behind Shopify's breakout, examine the potential for further gains, and discuss a potential entry point for long positions.
Shopify's Breakout from Consolidation
After several weeks of trading within a tight range, Shopify's stock finally managed to break out above its consolidation pattern. This breakout indicates a significant shift in the stock's price direction, and technical traders have been quick to take notice. The breakout is a signal of potential upward momentum, with the stock showing strong bullish sentiments.
The Upside Potential
With the breakout from consolidation, Shopify's stock now has ample room for further gains. As the company continues to innovate and expand its e-commerce platform, it is attracting more businesses and consumers to its ecosystem. The ongoing shift towards e-commerce and the rise of online businesses have provided a tailwind for Shopify's growth, and this trend is expected to continue in the foreseeable future.
Furthermore, Shopify's financial performance has been impressive, with consistently robust revenue growth. The company's strong quarterly results have reassured investors of its long-term sustainability, which has contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the stock. As Shopify expands its international presence and introduces new features and services, it is likely to attract more merchants and drive further growth.
Waiting for a Long Opportunity
While Shopify's breakout presents a compelling opportunity for traders and investors, it is crucial to exercise patience and wait for an optimal entry point. The ideal scenario for long positions would be a retest of the weekly breakout, around the $67.3 level. This level would act as a support level, providing a more attractive risk-to-reward ratio for long positions.
By waiting for a retest, traders can confirm that the breakout is genuine and that the stock has the potential to continue its upward trajectory. Timing is crucial in the stock market, and entering a position at the right moment can significantly impact potential gains.
Conclusion
Shopify Inc. ( NYSE:SHOP ) has captured the attention of the market with its breakout from weeks of consolidation. The stock's impressive upside potential is driven by the company's continuous growth in the e-commerce sector and its strong financial performance. As the online business landscape continues to expand, Shopify is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.
For traders and investors considering a long position in Shopify, it is essential to wait for an opportune moment. A retest of the weekly breakout around the $67.3 level provides a compelling entry point with a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
As always, it is crucial to conduct thorough research and consider market conditions before making any investment decisions. While Shopify's breakout presents an enticing opportunity, prudent risk management and disciplined trading strategies should guide all investment activities.
Breakout Trade in SHOPShopify is emerging from a beautiful Stage 2 base.
SHOP is up more than 100% since the start of a year – a clear sign this is a market leader.
Notice how volume is higher on the rallies up and lower when the stock pulls back. This is a subtle clue that buyers are in control and the smart money is building a position.
The breakout on Thursday came on 2X its average daily volume and the stock closed at the high of the candle – both good signs of a legitimate move.
I want to see SHOP stay above the breakout level or, at a minimum, above its 21-day moving average (blue line on chart).
Breakout trade in SHOPShopify needs no introduction. If you bought something online from anywhere other than Amazon, the sale probably ran through Shopify.
The stock is up 175% since October and proving to be a market leader.
The recent action shows shallowing retracements on declining volume – a textbook breakout pattern or "VCP Pattern" as described by Mark Minervini
I would consider buying on a move above $66.60 with a stop loss at $61.00 to risk roughly 8% on the trade.
Someone accumulating SHOP post earnings?Yet another Wyckoff pattern. I believe this pattern matches the Wyckoff schematic shared in the chart. I am making my list and checking it twice...
Wyckoff checklist:
PS—preliminary support, Done
SC—selling climax, Done
AR—automatic rally, Done
ST—secondary test, Done
Spring - optional, Done
Test— test, ACTIVE. We are looking for a series of higher lows to confirm the uptrend. We have yet to confirm the first higher low.
SOS—sign of strength,
LPS—last point of support,
BU—“back-up”,
SHOPIFY targeting 75.00It's been 10 months since we last analyzed Shopify Inc. (SHOP) and called for a $60 target (see chart below):
The stock recently hit that level and we now see that it's trading within a Bullish Megaphone/ Channel Up combo pattern. With the 1D MA50 as its Support and recent strong fundamentals, we now set the next medium-term target at $75.00 to fill Gap 3. The 1D RSI has been on a Higher Lows trend-line, clearly indicating the most optimal buy entry within the pattern.
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