Probability for 05/12/22 I think the overall price will target Buyside Liquidity and then drop down to Sellside Liquidity but also I strongly belive that price will try to reach an Imbalance (4h TF)which is below Sellside liquidity.
During London Kill Zone I'll keep my eyes on setup to go Long and once price action reach Buyside Liquidity I'll be looking to go Short and exit at second Sellside LIquidity.
Please share your thoughts.
Short-long
SPY Chop BeginsAs discussed earlier we are heading into a choppy zone for SPY before a big break out. Today Finished as a failed 2 giving a good Put set up. However we know the that we are heading into a choppy zone. Scalps only using price action and wait for a clear set up. We are going to leave this zone. Not sure if we will break the top first or not though. I personally see SPY having a big drop in the future in 2023. It doesn't make sense that we are heading into a recession and that stocks will rally during that. We haven't really hit the recession yet but the newest jobs data and consumer reports we are now fully lining up to be in one. When it truly hits I believe we will see new lows. Until then, play price action and wait for clear set ups.
Trading with Children.I think this is one of the most distracting thing while you trade.
If you are in the "zone" and there is a dog, child or your spouse around it is very difficult to focus on your trades.
I did 5 trades altogether.
Initially, I end up with a 6.5% profit but due to continuous trading, I end up with a 2% profit.
Let's keep going.
DAX Short - High Probability Current Macro Environment is very bearish:
Inverted Yield Curve :> showing that Market Participants are forecasting that rates are being cut in the future
Purchasing Manger Indexes are at contractionary levels - combined with the current situation in the money market - I do not expect that the real economy is going to relief from here
Current Technical Analysis is very likely to turn:
We are sitting at the golden pocket, range high and are currently forming an rounded top
I am expecting an fakeout H&S with early shorts getting stopped
Even if we have already formed an bottom - it is very unlikely that we go trough this level without an rejection
I am expecting at minium that we are able to take at least 1 take profit until it might turn more to the upside
Is Oil dying? I can't know if Oil is dying because I cannot see into the future. So what's on the chart?
1- There is a death cross on a daily timeframe which is always a significant event.
2 - The red stepwise line (the ATR) is telling us that there is heavy bear pressure in this market.
3 - Twice price was rejected in 31 days.
4 - Now there is a big struggle at a neckline.
5 - Price pushed outside the ascending wedge pattern, and has now fallen through the base. Not a good sign for bulls.
Price can go up or down at the leading edge. True trend-followers would have held short once price is below the 1D ATR line. Nobody knows how far that may go.
This is a dangerously volatile market on the daily, with no good short entry positions at this time.
A better entry short would have been at price point 100 - and still under the switch in the ATR.
But wow - look at the volatility one would have had to withstand over months. This is for strategists - not gamblers.
Stay safe. Don't burn cash.
DOLLAR (DXY): Things could get ugly next weekIt's all on the charts. The Dollar does not like trenches. Zoom into chart for a better view.
This is a probabilistic estimate for a 51% chance movement north. That means there is a 49% chance of no direction north. Prediction this is not (because predictions are 100% for occurrence).
What this means is that the probability north should be factored into all instruments that are linked to the DXY strength.
Equities indices for example have been profiteering from a relatively weak dollar. It is of course possible that both equities and dollar strength head south. Possible but not likely. If that happens it will be a whole new era.
Stay safe. Don't burn cash. May the force be with you! 😁😄
NZDUSD short ideaAs you can see from this markup we have locked into nearly all areas from our push down.... meaning the only areas are the liquidity above and below our highest zone!
so following what we know of interlocking structures the lower move would be next... taking us out of our retrace move and back into our trending structure move....
Reaching lower would give us 3 targets including the swing low after the first areas had been met!
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BTC LONG (SMC)This is a 5 min analysis i just did, im hoping by next month we get to 18K and then have anoter melt or go up...
NZDJPY short idealittle short idea for the nzdjpy pair... this is based off of a smaller time fram move to take us down into our BIGGER long term bias!
imbalances and POI always offer a good opportunity to catch a move, so watch this zone for exactly that!
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GBPCAD long to short ideaAs we showed in our mark up last Sunday, we expected price to hit our higher zone!
Which it did!! BUT, never gave us the short entry that we was looking for, now we have cleared that target we are looking to follow the bullish order flow up to the next POI....
from there we are going to look for shorts again, REMEMBER follow order flow and don't force your entries! wait for them to show themselves....
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