Short-long
APTOS TOKEN UNLOCKAPT has a token unlock fast approaching, 0.45% of the total supply (4.5m APT) is to be unlocked at 0.5:30 UTC on 12th June 2023.
Here are my thoughts going into this event, how I feel the market will react as well as key areas to look out for.
Firstly looking back to the latest APT token unlock back in January. We saw initial sell side pressure as new tokens flood the market, a gradual decline in price throughout the day ending in a -9% drawdown. However the days that followed were very bullish, with APT climbing approximately 40% the following week post unlock.
This is not unnatural price movement during an unlock event, so although not guaranteed, we can assume similar will happen this time too. As the chart shows price is currently following a triangle pattern capped by a local high of $9.00 that is being tested as I write this post. Just above is a bearish orderblock created by a price action imbalance and happens to create a good midpoint for the short term range we find ourselves in. This area will be a large obstacle for APT and in my opinion will cap off the short term rally we have had going into the unlock.
Then as we approach June 12th, price sells off temporarily due to high sell side pressure of a large influx of new coins. Before buyers react and look to attack that midpoint once more with new buyers that happily bought lower during the unlock event, perhaps using the 4H 200ema as new support that has now upturned and looking bullish.
These are just my thoughts on the upcoming event, in reality nobody knows what the future holds however the past can be used to learn from.
DYOR
NFA
BTC Daily Trade Idea In light of the new SEC/Binance news BTC fell off a cliff towards the midpoint of the 4H mini-range we have shown. In the middle of this range there's a bullish orderblock that I think could cap off the downside from this news. This is the first potential trade in my opinion after breaking lower and continuing the new downtrend.
2) The second potential trade is the reaction off the bullish OB and back up to the initial breaker, for me if we sweep liquidity of the supply zone and get back under, then we continue the downtrend and that leads to the third trade idea. Longing against the trend and news could be dangerous so this is quite risky.
3) The third and largest trade idea for BTC is the swing fail pattern confirming a downtrend and lack off confidence. That coupled with traditional markets such as the SPX & NASDAQ climbing higher but due a correction, I can see a retest of lower down, filling all the inefficiency and potentially marking the end of the bear market rally.
WILL THE SPX500 REACH NEW HIGHS OR WILL IT GO DOWN?On the SPX500, we have a bullish trend and a price that, after the approval of the US debt package, could reach the 4300 area where we have a supply zone in H1. The price could bounce before going back down to the 4130 area, creating a short setup according to the Forex48 strategy.
Let me know what you think.
Happy trading to everyone.
GBPUSD IS READY FOR NFPOn GBPUSD, we have a bullish/neutral setup in anticipation of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will be released in approximately one hour. The objective will be to look for a bearish setup if the price falls below the supply zone and then bounces back around 1.2520. Otherwise, a long position with a target of 1.26 could be considered, and this might be confirmed by the data as well.
Let me know what you think.
Happy trading to everyone.
XAGUSD REACTION LONG SOONOn XAGUSD, we have a price that, after reaching the 23.50 zone where we have a supply zone, bounced back down, effectively creating a short setup with an entry at 23.55. I anticipate a short position with a target of 23.10 to test the demand zone and the bullish trend line.
Let me know what you think.
Happy trading to everyone.
EURCHF SHORT TRADE RR 1:25On EURCHF, we have a bearish setup this morning with the price declining and forming a short setup, making it an excellent entry point around 0.971 area. The trade offers a 1:25 risk-to-reward ratio, which is a great setup with the Forex48 strategy.
Let me know what you think.
Happy trading to everyone.
USDJPY I Positive US debt ceiling talks and weekly outlookWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** USDJPY Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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CAT idea long wedge vs breakdownI just posted a CAT long idea. (check my profile for context on that)
I mentioned a breakdown but didn't draw it out so decided to make another post (this one).
I'm looking out for both options.
CAT has strong fundamentals and i can't imagine it getting absolutely wrecked, even in worsening economic conditions.
EURAUD I Broke 6350 resistance and forming head and shoulderWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
** EURAUD Analysis - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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CADJPY Two potential bearish setupsOn CADJPY, we have a bullish setup since Thursday. Currently, the price is around 100.70 and rapidly ascending. The expectation is for a bounce around 100.95, where we have a supply zone with a bearish setup identified by the Forex48 strategy. In addition to this potential entry, we have another one around 101.60. Both entries look promising; we will see which one the market favors.
Let me know your thoughts.
Happy trading to all.
Forex48 Trading Academy
Maybe VWAP bands are still the best?I know, I know, a very confusing title.
Point is, we have been running after far too many indicators to tell us about BTC happening, but the best one to support us during the volatile period is still the VWAP bands.
As we can see, price has bounced and being rejected from level 1 bands, upper side band. A very daunting place to make a decision of BTC future.
I would its possible that it can break and go to abyss or go to heaven.
My bet is abyss.
GBPUSD 14TH MAYThe British Pound to US dollar is exhibiting a similar trend to the charts we previously analyzed. The smaller time frame swing moves have broken down, indicating a bearish shift in the order flow. We have identified a small gap above previous price action and a small gap below our most recent swing low, leading us to believe in the possibility of a short-term retracement bringing us back into the zone above before continuing downwards towards the liquidity highlighted on the left. We plan to follow this pair in the same manner as the previous two pairs, catching some very nice sell moves off of it as it delivers bearish ranges. We will be looking for a weekly high to form around Monday or Tuesday before following this bearish trend further down into the lower liquidity pools. However, if the pair decides to continue bearish without retracing, we will follow the order flow. As always, refer to the DXY to understand the general market direction.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
EURUSD 14TH MAY
Here is our four-hour chart for the EUR/USD pair. Following a similar narrative to the gold chart published earlier today, we are anticipating a continuation of its bearish movement down based on the larger timeframe swing moves visible in this image. We are looking for a possible retrace to occur from the major swing low highlighted in the chart or a complete blow-through of that level, which would lead us into historical liquidity and an overall gap present on the daily timeframe.
We will be looking for continuations in our bearish ranges, but we will allow for the last short-term swing high highlighted in our chart to be taken for the gap above to be filled. Please note the purple zones that we have highlighted; these are areas where we're looking for reversals in trend.
Regardless of whether we experience a bearish or bullish gap, we will follow the order flow with this pair and hopefully pick up some nice continuation trades to the downside. If we do reverse, we will follow the order flow with that and continue to buy this pair into its overall narrative.
However, as stated in the Gold analysis, the DXY is showing some signs of bullishness, so we will be paying attention to what price shows us in the first sessions of the week. We are looking for a weekly high to be formed around Monday or Tuesday, as stated in the Gold analysis, and we will look for a bearish continuation from that point.
We'll be closely monitoring market openings and price action throughout the week. If you find this analysis useful, let us know in the comments below and hit the boost button to show your support. Here's to a successful week of trading!
AUDNZD Ready for short this night!On AUDNZD, we have a price that is consolidating around 1.0631, where it has formed a supply zone. The objective will be to wait for the price to rebound around 1.0660, where there is a supply zone with a Point of Interest (POI), indicating where the price has formed a short setup.
Let me know what you think.
Happy trading to everyone.
Forex48 Trading Academy
BTC Holds at Crucial Support AreaBTC is currently sitting in the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement area of the recent rise with support from the 200-period exponential moving average.
The loss of this place could take us to the 25K region. My opinion about the decrease to the 12-14K range has not changed,
I am waiting for the needles to the 9.3-9.8K range, but before this happens, BTC is still reading what it knows.
USDCHF Short o Long?On this pair, we have a resistance zone at level 0.896, a truly strong area in which the price has already generated over 3 false breakouts. My analysis suggests a short opportunity starting from the highest supply level, or in case of Swiss franc strength, I foresee a long opportunity if the price reaches the 89.00 psychological level and the lowest demand zone.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Have a nice trading.
Forex48 Trading Academy
EURJPY SHORT TRADEGood morning guys,
On EUR/JPY, we have a bullish daily trend. According to my view, the price could retrace to the 148.300 area, where I have identified a POI zone. This will be my area of interest in which I will look for a short trade.
Let me know in the comments what you think.
Happy trading to everyone!
Forex48 Academy
Hold or Bust: Bitcoin's Future Hangs in the Balance The current state of Bitcoin's momentum, seems to be slowing down based on the Ichimoku Indicator. I am specifically focused on the Chiku span, which is the green line diving into the price. This is usually followed by a fall in price. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently below two other indicators, the Tenken Sen and Kijun Sen, indicating bearish signs. However, Bitcoin has the support of the cloud, which is still acting as a barrier between the current price and the potential drop to $25.2k. I say that more time is needed to see if the price will bounce off the cloud or fall into it, ultimately affecting the value of Bitcoin.
AUDCAD is there a short trade?On this currency pair, I have identified a supply zone that caused the price to drop drastically to the 0.903 area, where the price created two demand zones. The first one that was generated was subsequently broken, and this will be used as a possible entry point if the price creates a setup for a short trade.
Let me know what you think in the comments.
Happy trading to everyone, bye.