ORBEX: CHFJPY - Open Triangle Top Trendline Penetrated!It looks like the corrective wave (2) of the bullish intermediate degree has ended at 106.74 with an open triangle pattern formed in minor wave C of the A,B,C correction. The recent breakout outside the triangle barriers looks impulsive (as seen in minute 5-wave upside move) and fresh highs could be expected.
In the short-term, we could receive a brief pullback before continuing higher to take out minute wave (iii) near 109.40. Or, we could get there first and then receive a pullback.
Minor wave 1 is expected to end near 110.23 and as part of the intermediate impulse to the upside, minor 5 has a long-term potential above 120.00.
This opportunity would be invalidated below 108.00. A break above 109.10 and then 109.57 would be validating the longer-term outlook.
Stavros Tousios
Head of Investment Research
Orbex
Short-term
Bitcoin - As Horizon Fades - Short-Term - Part 5Cryptocurrency Market Stalls As Horizon Fades
The cryptocurrency market appears to have stalled out in the wake of several fundamentals that failed to deliver. Bakkt’s weak BTC futures debut and the withdrawal of VanEck SolidX’s ETF proposal both adversely affected the market, and today’s slump is a direct result. Investors and traders look to impending fundamental factors as price drivers. In their absence, traders only have charts upon which to rely, and it goes without saying that BTC’s chart hasn’t painted the prettiest picture in recent weeks. The turbulence of the market has sidelined all but the most adventurous traders. As far as rollercoasters go, this one has been pretty thrilling, a little scary, and entirely unpredictable. Additionally, the BTC hash rate flash crash didn’t do anything to assuage investor concerns that the Bitcoin network is both secure and stable. An easy way to gauge just how few traders have a sense of direction in these tumultuous times is to read a Crypto Twitter feed. Currently, it appears that all of Crypto Twitter is expected a drop to the $6K range, if not lower. The more posts you see about meta-crypto topics, things Binance is doing, or dogs, the deeper in a bear cycle the market is. While there is, without a doubt, every possibility a sizable decline will occur, we’re not entirely sold. That’s alright, though. We’ve said this before, and so have many others, but it’s always worth repeating: Markets move in cycles. The BTC halving is approaching, and quickly. Getting in position to take advantage of the presumed price run leading to BTC’s quadrennial event will be the modus operandi of every intelligent trader in the market. At the time of writing, BTC appears to have stabilized above $8k. Without any fundamental price drivers in the immediate horizon, the next milestone to look to is the May 2020 halving. In our humble opinion, the rocket is refueling. But, if you’re the one strapped in the rocket and waiting for launch, it’s easy to become impatient with the process you’re unable to see. Rockets aside, BTC is currently cooling at $8,200 – a far cry from $10K. Crypto’s #1 is throwing mixed signals into the air. Both weekly and 2W timeframes displayed clear weakness by closing below HTF demand OB EQ at $8,259.80. Additionally, there is an olympic-size pool of demand resting below us from $7,200 to $6,000 - $5,650 . That roughly translates as traders notGiven that, we won’t be surprised to see BTC find a price floor above the catastrophic lows being predicted.
Will quantum computing break crypto?
A requisite ability in any cryptocurrency investor’s skillset is that of reading seemingly disconnected events for the ways they may be relevant now, or in the future. Case in point – Google reached its “quantum supremacy” milestone, meaning the company’s rudimentary quantum computer outperformed a traditional one. In a nutshell, quantum computers can easily run through impossibly sophisticated computations in the blink of an eye. Whereas a cluster of some of today’s best computers may take months, to complete a complex calculation, quantum computers will do them in seconds.
What has that got to do with crypto?
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the rest are cryptographically encrypted digital assets. Their security is guaranteed by the difficult calculations required to append transactions to the blockchain (via mining). However, a quantum computer, in theory, can easily power through the calculations which cryptographically secure digital assets today. In essence, quantum computers can potentially break blockchains.
In response, blockchain architects are generally doing one of two things:
1. Researching and deploying quantum-resistant cryptography as quickly as possible.
2. Deploying quantum-based blockchains which play nice with their computer counterparts. This prospect has been thoroughly researched arxiv.org but can’t be undertaken until quantum computing is established, stable, and well understood.
Concerns over how the rise of quantum computing may affect Bitcoin are well-founded but early. Google and IBM have both progressed much faster than anticipated, though their prototypes have a very long way to go before posing a threat to Bitcoin or blockchain generally. Technologies also grow in tandem. As progress is made in the quantum computing arena, there will be trickle-down and cross pollination to other sectors – like blockchain. Back in 2013, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin tried to get funding to build a quantum computer himself. More recently, he suggested quantum-resistant Lamport Signatures as a way to future proof blockchains. For additional reading on the subject, we suggest the following research paper titled “Bitcoin and Quantum Computing” > for more read this Article //arxiv.org/pdf/1711.04235.pdf
Well keep you updated as this timely issue evolves.
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Here s a small explanation about why Im giving insight into my trades. Crypto is all about trust and transparency and that is what ID like to bring. Dont expect me to tell you how much crypto I actually own because thats none of your business. But I Will tell you how big my position will be in regard to my trading portfolio.
Secondly and actually the main reason im doiing this, is to proof to all the HALTERS out there that you can earn money with trading crypto. Most people are skeptical about trading because they heard horror stories about people who lost all their money. Follow my journey and let me proof therm wrong.
At the end of the day, the most important thing is how good are you at risk control.
Booking some losses during trading is perfectly normal, so im not afraid to show those losses. Most traders dont give any insight in what they because they perfectly know they suck and dont have a clue what they are doing in regard to risk management.
Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing.
Just like every trader, Ive seen ups and downs in my journey. I started trading stocks. And you can guess what that meant for my portfolio. Yes thats right, it was almost completely wiped out.
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Bitcoin back to bearishOn the daily chart at the moment the bitcoin has returned bearish. The efficiency ratio of the Kama indicator has exceeded 0.30 which is the threshold that separates a flat market from a trending one.
At the moment we are at 0.47 and this confirms the bearish movement in place. Usually when the efficiency ratio reaches 0.7 and sometimes 0.8 the market top or bottom is close. I remind you that the efficiency ratio does not give any kind of directionality of the market but only the intensity of the movement.
The first strong long term support level is around 6500$, this support is obtained using my bitcoin price model v1.1 indicator. The fairprice line is close to 5000$.
UBER Tuesday Price Movement I am tracking the stock movement of Uber, I am an options trader and have 2 call contracts for UBER to hit 34.50 a share. Based on market trends this strike price should be reached by 9/27. Invest at your own risk as these are simple predictions. I have been correct 75% of the time with my predictions. My accuracy will be updated on Friday as well. Stay tuned!
Crude Oil long after drone attack on Saudi oil installationsCrude OIL long.
Reason is the terrorist attack today (14-09-19) of houthi terrorists on oil installations in Saudi Arabia. 10 drones were used in the attack. Rumours say that 50% of the oil production has been stopped in Saudi arabia, which is 5% of the world oil production. Donald Trump will very likely give a strong condemnation of this attack.
BITCOIN - Bakkt’s & VanEck’s ETF - Part 1A Bitcoin sell off does not always mean it is trending, it is all a matter of perspective. If you focus on one hour charts, you will see a trend!
For those who do not realize yet, losing is part of this game. When I was a beginner, I hated losing and used to make the mistake of letting my performance determine the value of my self worth. Back then, a colleague of mine used to always remind me that in order to win, you have to be able and willing to lose. It took years for me to fully appreciate those wise words. If you can't lose, you can NEVER win. Losing provides opportunities to develop, improve and grow if your level of emotional intelligence brings them to light. Over time these opportunities will lead to experience that will contribute to developing a personal process.
We follow a process that allows us to make the best use of our time and attention while participating in broader movements when the market cooperates. In other words, once the criteria lines up, and we are triggered into a trade, it is up to the MARKET from there. We DO NOT react to noise, over think or second guess. As long as our risk is defined, it is up to the market to do the rest.
Many may be over reacting to the bearish movement and assuming a trend. They will use trend following strategies, while over looking the fact that Bitcoin is still gyrating within a broad range (14K high to 9K low). Since price has not made any progress outside of this range, we continue to view it as a consolidation UNTIL it proves otherwise. Proof will have to come in the form of a break out, either below 9K or above 14K. We don't predict, we adjust and prepare.
What if price breaks lower? The 9K area is the extreme support where a fake out can most likely occur. We trade the long side only, so this is an error that we automatically avoid, but many will get sucked in. IF price can clear 9K decisively, ONLY then will we consider the 8500 support level in play. For our investment strategy (SEPARATE from swing trades), the 9K to 8500 - 7500 area is attractive when it comes to accumulating more inventory. In summary, Bitcoin is fluctuating around the lower region of a broad range, it is NOT trending on the degree to which we place the most weight on. For our swing trade strategy, this means the probability of the location favors long setups. We make every effort to remove ourselves from the equation and let the MARKET determine when to enter and exit a trade. Reacting is what often leads to errors and losses compared to letting the market present and trigger a trade idea.
What are your rules? How do you define a market that is in a trend? Or in a range? How do you measure your risk and reward relative to the current price structure? If you can't answer these questions clearly and decisively, then you should not be risking real money. Most new traders and investors come to this arena focused on profit, and overlook the value of consistency. Risk is the only variable we can truly control which is why our process begins with a defensive mindset. This is why we can be right less than 50% of the time, yet still produce a positive return overall.
BTC Back in Business
Hope you all had a restful labor day! Nothing quite like a respite from the usual to hit the reset button and start the week fresh.
Speaking of fresh starts, BTC found renewed vigor as it unexpectedly jumped from $9,400 up to $10,700. The run-up from $9,600 was particularly vigorous. Ascending volume matched bitcoin’s rising price tag tit for tat before topping out in a stride.
The latest move confused anyone seeking logic behind it. However, it correspond very nicely with the news that VanEck SolidX is offering a limited bitcoin ETF to institutional investors.
In the short term we have:
• VanEck’s unexpected ETF offering
• Bakkt’s bitcoin futures live date on the 23rd
• Final ETF decision arriving mid-October
The takeaway is that we’re entering a precarious time rife with potential for extreme volatility. Remember, volatility is not just to the downside, but to the upside as well.
Bitcoin’s obvious strength over the past couple of days tells us that with only an additional bit of fuel thrown in the fire, we may find ourselves firmly breaking out of the descending triangle in the chart below.
A move up towards $11K may be nothing more than a fake out attempt at breaking from the triangle, but banking on that by being short now is more risk than we’re willing to stomach. After all of these weeks spent sideways and slipping lower
We’re monitoring the situation closely and will keep you up to date.
BCHABC/USDT - Bitcoin Cash Trending UpHello Tradies!
There's so many people focused on BTC it's getting a bit boring.
As promised to Purple Crypto members, here is my analysis for BCHABC/USDT (or Bitcoin Cash). It is showing positive signs of an uptrend on multiple charts. On this 12H chart:
- rising Stoch RSI
- rising TRIX
- rising MacD
- some selling activity and
- a steep rise in the stoch RSI on the 1D chart - it has yet to hit the peak.
I shared my initial private analysis with Purple Crypto Premium members 2 days ago - great prep for a buy. This one was drawn up at that time for the purposes of Wave 1. Note that it will overshoot the top trend line if it continues upwards.
I believe that we have just completed Wave 1 of this round. The good news is if this is Wave 1, it doesn't look like an extended wave...so we know what's coming. :)
FYB (benefit), I've marked out on the chart where I believe we are in comparison to a similar previous rise.
Signals were provided on Purple Crypto Premium which generated a 7% profit on the first rise in under 12 hours...with more to come!!
Diversify, diversify, diversify....
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(I don't see anyone talking about BCH right now so let's see who copies my chart/idea - I'll be adding a link to this chart to every single "Top" copycat's chart...lol).
Cheerio!
Bitcoin Bouncing Off Resistance, Key Short Term Levels to Watch!Good Afternoon traders!
Bitcoin is at it again. At time or writing, Bitcoin is trading at $10,682 and it just bounced off of resistance towards support, here are some key levels we may want to keep an eye on.
The daily chart shows Points of Control(POC's) at $10,700 and $10,598, and, the most prominent POC on the daily, $10,400. If we zoom in on the hourly, we can see that since about 8:00am(EST) this morning on 9/3/2019, BTC has been trading between $10,700 and $10,598. We just saw it test $10,700 almost exactly, but it bounced. We are still in this nice and small range, and these levels should be watched carefully if you are in BTC currently. If $10,598 does not hold, then we may see a test of our strongest POC on the daily, $10,400. If $10,400 does not hold, our next resistance POC is at $10,115, which was formerly the strongest POC on the daily until the last day or two (and is definitely the second strongest POC on this chart.) If we can surpass $10,700, however, we will face resistance POC's at $11,382, $11,715, and $11,868.
Disclaimer: This is NOT trading advice! These are merely my opinions that I have posted for you to use as one of hopefully many tools for making YOUR OWN decisions. I hope you all kill it, but I am not responsible for any financial losses. Thanks for reading!
MATIC/USDT Generated a Nice ProfitUnlike some users on Trading View, I do not make every analysis public and for the benefit of my members, I only ever enter a trade where I am 100% confident it will generate guaranteed profits. I just don't see the point of posting every chart that may "possibly" uptrend. I am only focused on profit-generating cryptos!
MATIC/USDT's trend line projection analysis from August 18 has played out perfectly, exhibiting an on point trend with a 15% profit generated in the most recent rise in under 24 hours with another crypto trade in the pipeline expected to generate an additional 10%. This chart was shared privately with Purple Crypto Premium members.
And I share with you this private chart (which I used for my personal reference) predicting the downtrend:
Happy trading!
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A month later, the situation hasn't changed.The price levels I gave you a month ago worked well because the market remained sideways. I updated the resistance and support areas by slightly changing the settings of the Kama average I use (I increased the smoothing factor from 2 to 3).
I confirm that below 8300$ thresold the trend changes from flat to bearish at least in the short term, the previous threshold value was 8500$ now revised to 8300$.
FDAX Short-Term EW Count I am expecting that the German Market will make one more lower Low target Zone should be 11000-10800. Currently we are in a corrective structure within a down trend there are two ways how this structure could play out. The first setup (orange) gives us a Short Swing Level around 11800 the second setup (grey) gives us another Short Swing Level around 12100-12200. Stay tuned for more...
Last wave in short term?Last very short-term analysis:
The price moved back and forth in this rest period. Now 1528$ (R1) may become new support to start 5th wave (green scenario) or may not and S1 act as support (orange scenario).
Note that It is a very risky situation. Price has reached medium term high and close to long term high. watch your position and set reasonable SL and TP.