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Shorteurusd

EUR/USD short to go retest low of the day 2/17/20I took this short because I was stalking EUR/USD and waiting for a pullback with a favorable 15m close, my setup. But there was no clear 15m low to go retest. Only a wick to fill on 15m in bearish HTF momentum. I Placed this trade about 30m after the first trade. I forced this setup, trying to do too much. In trading, in my humble opinion less is actually more. Even though we ended up filling the 15m wick, The probability of this trade working out was lower than my first trade since there was no clear Low to retest. I stopped out early, -.65R
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EUR/USD 1H Short opportunity we can short eur/usd if pattern is complete targets and stop lose are clear at chart This is not an investment recommendation or any call to buy or sell It is just an analysis based on a study of the history of price action Behavior , that may not be a necessarily reason for the success of the structure or repetition. So please make your decision based on your vision . To protect capital and manage your deals and trading successfully the maximum loss in each transaction for the same currency or commodity in the same direction should not exceed ( 2% ) of the capital . Good luck >>
Short
by Golden_Spiral
Strong bearish bias for EUR/USD1)we can see a break of structure an price creating new L.H and L.L 2)break of counter trend line wut break of monthly price zone 1.14788 3) re-test of counter trend line i conlfuence with monthly price zone. 4) bearish engulfin at the candle stick monthly zone eating 5 days of price action right now price in a stong daily zone where we can see 2 bottoms and price close finding sopport at this daily zone 1.13071 forming a 3 bottom. we might see bulls reacting to this zone and moving price up back to the monthly on the fib, clear rejection of the retracement point 0.382 zone with wicks reaching up to the 0.618 in conlfuence with monthly zone 1.14788. strong monthly, weekly and daily bearish bias+ bullish DXY
by yahdielo
EURUSD escalating tensions between the EU and ItalyEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1487 Key Resistance: 1.1487 - 1.1522 - 1.1540 - 1.1558 Key Support: 1.1460 - 1.1435 - 1.1412 - 1.1396 Day Trading Range: 1.1420 - 1.1535 Technical Indicator: RSI: The RSI shows mixed bearish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 100 (1.1506) & SMA 50 (1.1499) both are strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1487 with targets at 1.1512 & 1.1536 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1487 look for further downside with 1.1458 & 1.1434 as targets. Fundamental: Italian Risk Continue: “Italian Deputy PM Salvini yesterday met with far-right former French presidential candidate Marie Le Pen, where the two publicly agreed that ‘dancing-man’ Juncker is the “real enemy” of Europe: perhaps that’s why the guy was shuffling from side to side in public, to make himself a harder target for populists?” “With the Italian bond and stock market making its own negative judgement on the Italian desire not to have to embrace Teutonic hair-shirt fiscal policy in a febrile socio-economic environment, Salvini added “If one had evil thoughts, he would think there are people betting on the spread because they don’t want Italy to grow and create jobs.” And there was also little sign of any retreat or surrender to the bond market or the European Commission: “We will not backtrack, we will not backtrack,” Salvini insisted, adding that “Speculators acting like Soros are betting on Italy’s collapse to buy at discount prices the healthy companies, and there are many of them, that have remained in this country.” The EURUSD closes yesterday on bearish note yesterday owning to high level of dovish pressure on common currency influenced by escalating tensions between the EU and Italy, over the budget approved a couple of weeks ago. European equities collapsed to multi-month lows on Monday, with banking-related equities leading the slump, as Italian government bond yields surged to over 4-year highs, with Italian Salvini pointing a finger on Brussels for the bonds’ sell-off and Deputy PM Di Maio claiming that anti-austerity views will grow stronger across the continent, meanwhile the pair hit a new 6-week low at 1.1459 during yesterday’s market hours. The EUR/USD is trading flat and steady in early Tuesday action just shy of the 1.15 handle as the pair holds close to near-term lows. Italy headlines remain a drag on the EUR, with Italian bonds continuing to under perform against their major benchmark peers as political confidence crumbles, and the downside pull of the Italian government’s budget concerns is poorly timed, with broader markets already suffering a lack of confidence at the hands of rising US Treasury bond yields and increasing discomfort surrounding global trade, and this week could see the EUR/USD take a further haircut. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURO under pressure from higher interest rateEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1516 (CMP 1.1499) Key Resistance: 1.1520 - 1.1540 - 1.1558 - 1.1580 - 1.1610 Key Support: 1.1491 - 1.1476 - 1.1448 - 1.1428 - 1.1410 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1510) & SMA 100 (1.1522) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1500 with targets at 1.1530 & 1.1560 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1500 look for further downside with 1.1476 & 1.1450 as targets. Fundamental: EURUSD bulls have managed to hold support, next, they are likely to start thinking of increasing the buying and trying to push the euro higher. It may not be an easy task against the dollar which has been getting a lot of support from the Fed, of late. We have seen the dollar being well supported as the Fed has been hiking rates as per schedule and as per expectations of the market which has only increased its status as being one of the most stable currencies around, to invest in during times of crisis. This has been the case with the dollar for long but that feeling has only increased in recent times. The dollar has been further supported by the talk from the Fed Chief Powell who has made it clear that the rate hike cycle is not close to its end as yet and this has only further boosted the dollar. Under these circumstances, it is to the credit of the euro bulls that they have managed to hold the support region around 1.15 but the move higher is only going to get more and more difficult in the days ahead. The economic news on the calendar is pretty much limited as of today and hence we can expect the euro to consolidate and range for most of the day. Chinese equities took a big hit after traders returned from a week-long holiday. Efforts by the People’s Bank of China to free more than $100 billion in liquidity through cutting the reserve requirement ratio were not enough to offset the fear of slowing growth, the escalated trade dispute, and the rise in U.S. interest rates. The CSI 300 fell 3.6% late morning led by the technology sector as investors had the chance to respond to reports claiming that Chinese intelligence agents planted microchips to hack big tech firms and U.S. government agencies. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURO looking ahead US NFP TodayEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1490 Key Resistance: 1.1520 - 1.1545 - 1.1568 - 1.1590 Key Support: 1.1490 - 1.1455 - 1.1532 - 1.1512 Day Trading Range: 1.1440 - 1.1560 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend. Moving Average: SMA 50(1.1511) & SMA 100(1.1539) strong resistance for pair today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1490 with targets at 1.1522 & 1.1548 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1490 look for further downside with 1.1450 & 1.1422 as targets. Fundamental: Concerns on Italian politics eased somewhat on Thursday and allowed spot to rebound from recent lows in the 1.1460 region. In addition, news citing the ECB was discussing its reinvestment policy also lent some support to the single currency. However, the bull run met strong resistance in the 1.1540/45 band, forcing the pair to recede to the current 1.1500 zone. In the meantime, spot is expected to remain under pressure amidst rising US yields while further range bound should be seen ahead of the release of US Non-farm Payrolls for the month of September. Earlier in the session, German Factory Orders expanded 2.0% MoM during August, surpassing estimates. In addition, Producer Prices rose more than expected 0.3% inter-month during the same period and 3.1% on a yearly basis. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD comes under further pressure and navigate the 1.1480 areaEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1530 (CMP 1.1584) Day Trading Range: 1.1535 - 1.1420 Key Resistance: 1.1498 - 1.1520 - 1.1535 - 1.1555 Key Support: 1.1465 - 1.1440 - 1.1408 - 1.1388 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator having hidden bullish divergence but still moving below 50 level. Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1530) & SMA 100 (1.1562) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1518 with targets at 1.1460 & 1.1410 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1518 look for further upside with 1.1565 & 1.1595 as targets. Fundamental: This helped the dollar to gain some strength over the last few months and just when we were thinking that the bulls were getting tired and that we could see a reversal in the fortunes of the dollar, we are seeing another boost being given to the dollar by the Fed Chief Powell. His speech was scheduled late in the day yesterday and though not much was expected from it and the impact from that was expected to be minimal, it was anything but that. He said that the interest rates were still accommodating and made it very clear that further interest rate hikes could be along the way in the coming months. What we are looking at now is some serious strength in the dollar with some strong support from the Fed, which was quite unexpected as far as the market is concerned. The Fed under the new Chief Powell seems to be doing a good job of speaking its mind and giving some clear messages to the market and it had followed the path that it had laid out for itself at the beginning of the year. Looking ahead, there are no scheduled events in Euroland, whereas September’s Factory Orders, the usual weekly report on the labour market and Challenger Job Cuts are all due across the pond. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Battle for the bulls and the bears for control of EURUSD EURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1538 (CMP 1.1573) Key Support: 1.1555 - 1.1532 - 1.1510 - 1.1490 Key Resistance: 1.1588 - 1.1612 - 1.1628 - 1.1645 Day Trading Range: 1.1628 - 1.1490 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1566) strong support & SMA 100 (1.1603) strong resistance for the day. RSI: The indicator shows bullish divergence for the day. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1538 with targets at 1.1610 & 1.1645 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1538 look for further downside with 1.1510 & 1.1488 as targets. Fundamental: After bottoming out in the boundaries of the 1.15000 neighborhood in the first half of the week, the pair seems to have recovered some attention and is now up around a cent since those lows. However, Italian politics remains a hot topic for the time being, with the budget deficit still in centre stage. It is worth mentioning that the official budget submission to the EU will be on October 15. In addition, some renewed weakness around the greenback is also bolstering the corrective up move in the pair. Looking ahead, final September Services PMIs in Euroland is due next seconded by EMU’s Retail Sales. Across the pond, the labour market will come to the fore in light of the release of the ADP report, while the key ISM Non-manufacturing will also grab attention. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has called a budget meeting with his ministers to go over Italy's budget discussions further, as holiday-impinged markets tread on the volatile side on reaction to Euro-centric headlines. Key highlights Conte will be meeting with select members of his cabinet as they look for more ways to squeeze some wiggle room out of the European nation's books, with headlines on Tuesday sending the EUR lower after Italy decided to stick to their guns and plan for a 2.4% budget deficit in fiscal year 2019, bringing Italy's budget deficit beyond the 2% target set out under EU guidelines. Conte and his posse have attempted to smooth over frictions in markets regarding Italy's budget, promising to reduce Italy's deficit to 2.2% in fiscal year 2020 and dropping it further to the 2.0% barrier by FY 2021, but these proposals lie several years down the road, and traders will be keeping a close eye on the Italian bond yields this week, bearing in mind that the previous government was targeting a deficit of just 0.6% in 2019. The region around 1.15 is likely to be the key and this would be the region of battle for the bulls and the bears for control of this pair and there is likely to be a lot of stops below this. Any break below this region would trigger these stops and would accelerate the move lower and then the bears would be in control. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Today EURUSD eye on Fed Chair Powell SpeaksEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1594 Key Resistance: 1.1568 - 1.1594 - 1.1622 - 1.1645 Key Support: 1.1522 - 1.1498 - 1.1465 - 1.1445 Day Trading Range: 1.1622 - 1.1498 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1593) & SMA 200 (1.1653) strong resistance for EURUSD today. RSI: The indicator moving oversold level below 30, soon it will go up side Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short @ 1.1594 with targets @ 1.1535 & 1.1512 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1594 look for further upside with 1.1622 & 1.1658 as targets. Fundamental: The euro countries' eco. calendar is pretty light with EU PPI being the only data due out. However, we have ECB Galhau speaking in Paris at 14:30GMT. There is EU Eco. and Financial Affairs Council meeting (ECOFIN) today which starts at 09:00GMT and ECB VP de Guindos will participate. The Euro is inching lower against the U.S. Dollar early Tuesday after plunging 0.22% on Monday. Pressing the single currency were renewed concerns about Italy’s budget deficit. According to reports, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio accused European Union officials of deliberately upsetting financial markets with negative comments about Italy’s budget plans. He was essentially firing a shot at European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, who earlier in the session said that Rome’s plans were “obviously” deviating from EU rules on fiscal discipline. The markets opened on Monday to the news that the United States, Mexico and Canada managed to agree on a new deal. The new trade deal replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and is now called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal. The deal is said to give greater access to the U.S to Canadian dairy markets in return for allowing extra imports of Canadian cars. Economic data from the U.S. was slightly. Construction spending was seen rising less than expected August. Official data showed that spending on construction rose just 0.1% in August on a month over month basis. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI showed the index easing to 59.8 in August compared to 61.3 in July. The data also missed estimates of 60.1. However, the USD managed to close on a high note, maintaining the gains from last Friday. The day ahead will be marked by the RBA’s monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the interest rate which stands at 1.50%. The European trading session is relatively quiet. Spain will be releasing its unemployment change followed by the construction PMI data from the UK. The median estimates put the activity in the construction sector to ease slightly to 52.8 from 52.9. Later in the evening, the NY trading session will see the Fed chair, Jerome Powell speaking. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD Under Pressure Focus Shifts to US FOMC MeetingEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1765 Day Trading Range: 1.1800 - 1.1690 Key Resistance: 1.1760 - 1.1788 - 1.1810 - 1.1835 Key Support: 1.1735 - 1.1718 - 1.1694 - 1.1674 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator shows bullish divergence but still moving around level 50. Moving Average: SMA 100(1.1735) strong support, SMA 20(1.1756) & SMA 55(1.1757) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1765 with targets at 1.1728 & 1.1700 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1765 look for further upside with 1.1780 & 1.1798 as targets. Fundamental: The common currency rose to 1.1815 yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) head Mario Draghi took note of the "relatively vigorous" pick-up in the underlying price pressures and rising wage-price inflation. However, he added further that the pick-up in inflation is conditional on interest rates staying low through next summer, dashing hopes of an early rate hike. As a result, the common currency surrendered gains and ended up creating a bearish outside-day doji, which indicates the rally from the Aug. 15 low of 1.301 has likely run out of steam. Global markets saw a mixed dollar in North American market hours after ECB President Draghi’s economic update to the EU Parliament sent the euro through 1.18 temporarily on hawkish rhetoric, signaling the ECB’s forward intentions when he explained that “a relatively vigorous pick-up in underlying inflation” was underway, underscoring an improving labor market and signs of shortages, supporting the ECB’s expectations of higher wages. EUR/USD jumped from 1.1750 to 1.1815 – a three-month high – on Draghi’s speech. However completely retraced a few hours later, as ECB chief undercuts his own bullish comments on inflation with warnings over potential effects from protectionism, and also perhaps due to the unease surrounding Italy’s fiscal plans and indeed ahead of the FOMC later this week. The EUR/USD could feel the pull of gravity amid rising treasury yields, having created a big outside-day doji candle yesterday. EU’s Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom commented that “talks between the EU and the US remain in an exploratory stage, and getting down to the hard details of a limited trade agreement between the two are not going to begin until a trade meeting slated for early November ” while at a United Nations General Assembly. Investors turn their focus back on this week’s key event risk – the highly anticipated FOMC decision on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely anticipated to raise interest rates by 25bps. The US 10yr treasury yield made a four-month high at 3.09% and the Fed sensitive 2yr yields hit 2.83% to make a fresh high since 2008. The Fed fund futures yields continued to price 100% chance of a hike on Wednesday, while the chance of another hike in Dec is priced at 90%. On the data front, the German wholesale price index (WPI) is scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT. Further, ECB's Praet is scheduled to speak at 08:25 GMT and ECB's Coeure is due to speak at 12:00 GMT. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Fed hikes should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area againEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1760 Key Resistance: 1.1765 - 1.1790 - 1.1810 - 1.1845 Key Support: 1.1735 - 1.1720 - 1.1698 - 1.1665 Day Trading Range: 1.1700 - 1.1790 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator shows Bart pattern, moving around 55 level, still in bullish zone above 50. Moving Average: SMA 20 (1.1730) strong support, SMA 10(1.1761) strong resistance & SMA 50(1.1686) strong support for pair. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1760 with targets at 1.1730 & 1.1710 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1760 look for further upside with 1.1775 & 1.1800 as targets. Fundamental: Intensifying Trade Dispute between China & US Dulls Investors Risk Appetite. With positive economic climate surrounding US markets, US FED is set to stay on course for scheduled in rate hikes in near future and this will greatly support US Greenback in positive manner in global markets. With the Fed still keen to continue the process of moving rates back towards ‘neutral’, it remains too early in our view for the FX market to price the Fed going on hold. Meanwhile, The common currency may also come under pressure if the European and US equities respond negatively to a decision by China to scrap trade talks with the US. In response to US tariff on Chinese goods worth $200b coming into effect today, Chinese govt has retaliated by adding 60 billion of U.S. products to its import tariff list and cancelling mid-level trade talks with the United States, as well as a proposed visit to Washington by vice premier Liu He originally scheduled for this week as per reports from the Wall Street Journal with no dates set for further talks. Continued Fed hikes should help EUR/USD revisit the 1.15 area again in near future. The intensifying dispute between the world’s two biggest economies has spooked financial markets worried about the fallout on global growth there by inspiring a risk averse investor sentiment as trading session began for the week. When looking from technical perspective in daily chart, the indicators eased from near overbought levels, holding well into positive territory, rather than reflecting the latest slide supporting a downward extension ahead. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD supported by ECB chief economist Peter PraetEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1735 Day Trading Range: 1.1735 - 1.1860 Key Support: 1.1768 - 1.1738 - 1.1718 - 1.1694 Key Resistance: 1.1815 - 1.1834 - 1.1858 - 1.1888 Technical Indicators: RSI The RSI moving 70 level & its having more space for overbought condition. MACD: MacD having Bullish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 20 (1.1709) & SMA 55 (1.1661) are strong support for EURUSD. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1735 with targets at 1.1810 & 1.1835 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1735 look for further downside with 1.1718 & 1.1688 as targets. Fundamental: The easing trade tensions and the resulting broad based sell-off in the USD pushed the EUR/USD pair to a 2.5-month high of 1.1785 yesterday. The EUR/USD pair pulled back from the mentioned high during NA market hours yesterday but has regained ground now after the retracement held above the former resistance in the 1.1730 region, where the pair stalled its advance several times these last days, and where it set its high in August. The options market data indicate the investors are expecting the common currency to extend gains further and hence are likely unwinding bearish bets which support the pair’s bullish momentum and also indicate consolidation above 1.17 handle. Although the weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing data from the U.S. came in better than analysts’ estimates, the index failed to make a meaningful recovery. EURO bulls were further supported by comments from ECB chief economist Peter Praet in New York where he said that the euro area economy was expanding at a rate above its potential and added that he was confident about the inflation rate converging with the bank’s target. Looking ahead, the EUR could raise above 1.18 if the preliminary Eurozone PMI numbers, scheduled for release today, beat estimates and the risk assets remain well bid. When looking from technical perspective, the EUR/USD could revisit former resistance-turned-support level of 1.1750 before building on a bullish close above 1.17, as the hourly chart is showing a bearish divergence of the relative strength index. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic