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Gold has been in consolidating within the familiar sidewaysXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1196.20 Key Resistance: 1200.55 - 1204.25 - 1207.89 - 1212.66 Key Support: 1196.20 - 1193.55 - 1191.89 - 1188.29 Day Trading Range: 1205 - 1188 Technical Indicator: RSI: RSI indicates upside bias with 52 level. Moving Average: SMA 55(1200.54) , SMA 100(1202.22) & SMA 200(1201.43) these all are major resistance for Gold today. Overall, With respect to the Fed fund futures yields, these continued to price 100% chance of a hike this week while the chance of another hike in Dec is priced at 90%. Much will now depend on the Fed's dots and median forecast, but anything uber-dovish could well see a huge unwind in the greenback and gold at these levels will all of a sudden look like good value and it may even take up market's preference for its safe-haven status again which would put it on course for a sizeable reversal. On the other hand, should the FOMC event be taken as more hawkish than expected, the dollar is likely to take back its title on the board of FX and weigh heavily on gold leading to a potential breakout of this extended period of consolidation. Gold has been range bound since mid-August and is likely to remain in this state of flux as long as the Fed doesn’t do something widely unexpected on Wednesday. The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate 25 basis points on Wednesday. This event has already been priced into the market. Gold is not likely to move on this news, but traders could react to any news on the path of future rate hikes. For example, a dovish Fed monetary policy statement could put upside pressure on gold, while threatening to trigger a breakout above the key resistance level at $1220.70. The Fed cutting back on the number of rate hikes in 2019 or removing the word “accommodating” from its policy statement would be supportive. Gold could break further if the Fed continues to press for more rate hikes in 2019 in order to gain control of rising inflation, or if it leaves the word “accommodating” in its monetary policy statement. Additionally, gold could fall further if escalating trade tensions between the United States and China drives investors into the safe-haven U.S. Dollar. Today’s Home Price Index (HPI) is expected to show an increase of 0.2%. The S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI is expected to come in at 6.2%. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report is expected to come in at 132.2, slightly below the previously reported 133.4. The Richmond Manufacturing Index is forecast at 22, down from 24. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
European Session Gold keen observing "sensitive US dollar"XAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1197.10 Day Trading Range: $1194 - $1214 Key Resistance: $1204.45 - $1207.29 - $1212.66 - $1218.89 Key Support: $1197.10 - $1194.22 - $1191.45 - $1189.56 Technical Indicator: RSI: RSI lacks downside momentum, trading above 50 level. Moving Average: SMA200($1198.94) & SMA100($1200.48) strong support for xauusd today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1197.10 with targets at 1205.50 & 1207.56 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1197.10 look for further downside with 1194.50 & 1189.45 as targets. Overall, Gold remains in a sideways consolidation between 1214 and 1182 but is making the case for a break higher according to the bullish symmetrical triangle. For bulls to get back control, whereby the market is heavily short of gold and to reconsider its positioning, (net speculative short positions, or bets an asset’s price will fall, in gold, are up 275% year to date), then they need to get and hold above the 50-D SMA at 1211 first, then 1214 which is resistance and then the 200-W SMA at 1233 will need to be challenged. A retry of the downside now should target 1146/20 monthly levels. Fundamentally, the intensifying U.S.-China trade dispute is the driver ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. However, we have only seen modest moves in the greenback so far and markets, in fact, took the trade headlines in their stride. Even with President Donald Trump announcing $200 billion tariffs against China on Monday that provoked an expected and swift retaliation from the nation, fear has yet to really show up in the market and the US benchmarks were higher with the DJIA making another all-time record high. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
Gold sellers could hit it hardTechnical Overview Weekly Pivot: $1197.67 Weekly Key Resistance: $1204.46 - $1208.66 - $1215.45 - $1223.43 Weekly Key Support: $1190.97 - $1186.68 - $1179.89 - $1170.09 Technical Indicator: RSI: The RSI shows to more downside bias, moving below 50 level. MACD: Macd having seller pressure with high volume. Moving Avg: SMA55 ($1198.29 Blue Line in above Chart) & SMA200 ($1200.81 Black Line in above Chart) Strong Resistance for Gold. Most Likely Scenario Long Position $1180 - $1184 with Strong Stop $1172 with target $1192.45 - $1198.35 in extension. Fundamental: Gold could start the week under pressure if reports from over the week-end are accurate. The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday, citing individuals familiar with the matter that President Trump is planning to impose a fresh round of tariffs targeting about $200 billion in Chinese goods. According to the Journal, the tariffs are expected to be set at around 10%, according to people familiar with the matter, a lower level than the possibility of 25% tariffs previously floated by the administration. With the move, Trump is trying to pressure Beijing ahead of planned high-level discussions and is intended to provide the U.S. leverage in talks over China’s alleged practice of demanding American companies turn over technology in order to do business in the country, the Journal reported. However, traders could flock to the safety of the U.S. Dollar, putting pressure on gold prices, if the imposition of new tariffs escalates trade tensions between the U.S. and China. There are no major U.S. economic reports this week but Treasury yields could continue to move anyway as investors position themselves ahead of the next Fed interest rate announcement on September 26. Last week, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 3 percent, if it continues through this level, sellers could hit gold hard. Minor reports include the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Building Permits, Housing Starts. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by yoCryptoManic
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