NZD/USD Trend for Upcoming US FOMC MeetingNZD/USD news:
🔆The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered a widely expected 50 basis point rate cut, reducing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 3.75%, in line with both previous expectations and the central bank’s previous guidance. However, the most notable dovish change came from the updated OCR guidance, which indicates a faster approach to the median 3% by year-end, now projected at 3.1% rather than the previous forecast of 3.6% in November. The revised trajectory suggests a further 50 basis point cut in the second quarter, likely split into two 25 basis point cuts in April and May, followed by a 25 basis point cut in the third quarter and a potenti
🔆Inflation forecasts point to a divergence between tradable and non-tradable goods. The RBNZ has revised its tradable goods inflation forecast upward, citing the depreciation of the NZD, rising oil prices and trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, non-tradable inflation is expected to continue to decline due to weak domestic demand and a cooling labour market. Growth forecasts remain subdued, with the output gap widening further into negative territory. The RBNZ believes the market reaction has been measured, as early easing has been priced in.
🔆While maintaining their final rate forecast at 3% for the end of the year, they revised their forecast to account for a further 25 basis point cut in Q2, bringing their Q2 end forecast to 3.25%, down from their previous estimate of 3.50%. Their Q3 forecast remains unchanged at a 25 basis point cut, taking the OCR to 3.00%, down from their previous forecast of 3.25%, with a possible pause until the end of the year. The risk remains that the RBNZ could accelerate the pace of easing if growth weakens further or slow the trajectory if inflation becomes more persistent.
Personal opinion:
🔆The USD is expected to strengthen after the FOMC meeting tonight, the NZD is currently being sold off after the Official Cash Rate announcement and is expected to continue to decline in the short term.
Technical analysis:
🔆Based on important resistance - support zones and trend lines combined with published basic economic information
Plan:
🔆 Price Zone Setup:
👉Sell NZD/USD 0.5700 – 0.5720
❌SL: 0.5760 | ✅TP: 0.5660 – 0.5610 – 0.5570
FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
