OPENING (IRA): SPY AUGUST 28TH 280 SHORT PUT... for a 3.55 credit.
Notes: Doing something a little more "programmatic" in the IRA by selling the 1 standard deviation/16 delta short put in the expiry nearest 45 days until expiry. Will take profit on approaching worthless or take assignment and sell calls against at the strike nearest the break even.
This is naturally buying power heavy, but you can look to do the same basic trade in the smaller IWM or XLK, which has a three month correlation with SPY of .86.
Shortput
OPENING (IRA): SPY SEPTEMBER 4TH 295 SHORT PUT... for a 3.45 credit.
Notes: Sold the strike nearest the 16 delta. Meant to do this earlier in the week, but probably got distracted by a few earnings plays. Cost basis of 291.55 if assigned. Basically, looking to do this programmatically every week in the expiry nearest 45 days 'til expiry and then run it to expiry, at which time these will either (a) expire worthless; or (b) they'll be in the money, and I'll be assigned shares, at which point I'll proceed to cover with a short call at the strike nearest my cost basis (i.e., in this case, the 292).
OPENING: AAL AUGUST 21ST 10 SHORT PUT ... for a 1.02 credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $102/contract
Max Loss: $898/contract (assuming stock goes to zero)
Break Even/Cost Basis: 8.98/share
ROC% at Max as a Function of Notional: 11.4%
Notes: High implied at 171%. Looking to wheel this if it doesn't stay above 10 (i.e., acquire shares, cover).
OPENING (IRA): EWZ AUGUST 21ST/SEPTEMBER 18TH 23/24 SHORT PUT... for a total of 1.73 credit, with the 24 paying .80 and the 23, .93.
Notes: One of the dividend yielders on my shopping list (yield currently at 3.58%). I've been going three rung with these, but there is currently no October to take advantage of.
OPENING: NKLA AUGUST 21ST 15 SHORT PUT... for a .90 credit.
Metrics:
Max Profit: $90
Max Loss: $1410 (assuming stock goes to zero)
Break Even/Cost Basis in Shares: 14.10/share
ROC% at Max as a Function of Notional Risk: 6.4%
Notes: 30-day implied still high here, so doing something a little more risk adverse with a far out-of-the-money short put that still pays >5% ROC at max as a function of notional risk. Ridiculous that a 2.25 delta strike is paying that amount. The one minor downside: markets aren't the most liquid here; I got filled at .90 when markets were .10 wide. They've splayed out to .30 wide since ... .
THE WEEK AHEAD: MU, FDX EARNINGS; XOP, IWM, EWZEARNINGS:
MU (36/64/11.7%) announces earnings on Monday after the close. Pictured here is a 19 delta short strangle in the July expiry, paying 1.55.
FDX (46/59/11.4%) announces Tuesday after the close, with the 20 delta July 17th 115/147 paying 4.56.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS ORDERED BY RANK AND SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35%:
EWW (59/44/12.6%)
EWZ (47/63/17.7%)
XLE (45/52/16.0%)
GDXJ (43/60/17.7%)
SMH (37/42/12.0%)
GDX (36/45/14.5%)
XOP (32/70/20.2%)
USO (13/67/16.7%)
Would probably go out to August here (54 days) ... . Looked at through the lens of what the short straddle is paying as a function of share price, it looks like I should be selling premium in XOP (20.2%), followed by EWZ (17.7%) and/or GDXJ (17.7%).
BROAD MARKET ORDERED BY RANK:
IWM (57/45/12.7%)
QQQ (38/32/<10%)
EFA (37/29/<10%)
SPY (37/34/<10%)
Small caps continue to be where the juice is at.
IRA DIVIDEND-GENERATORS
IYR (53/40/11.7%)
XLU (50/33/<10%)
EWZ (47/63/17.7%)
EWA (46/40/11.2%)
EFA (37/29/<10%)
SPY (37/34/<10%)
HYG (35/20/<10%)
EMB (20/18/<10%)
TLT (20/19/<10%)
EWZ offers both better better premium as a function of stock price than IYR at the moment, as well as slightly higher yield (3.66% for the former; 3.50% for the latter). Since I've already laddered out IYR, I may dip at the EWZ well with the 16 delta short put paying .70 in August at the 22 strike, .84 in September at the 21 ... .
OPENING: NKLA JULY 17TH 55 SHORT PUTfor a 21.95 credit.
Notes: High rank/implied after going public (134/328). Cost basis of 33.05 if assigned on the 55's. The July at the money 80 short straddle is paying around 60.00 relative to a share price of 81.33 or about 73.8% of the share price, which doesn't happen very often ... .
OPENING: AMD JULY 17TH 44 SHORT PUT... for a 1.13/contract credit.
Notes: Out of my monied covered call in the IRA for "decent" earlier today; back into it in the margin for a "classic" wheel trade in that ~45 days 'til expiry wheelhouse. Perennially decent implied (currently at 54.5%), good options liquidity, and affordable share price make this underlying ideal for short put/acquire/cover trading.
OPENING: TQQQ JULY 17TH 55 SHORT PUT... for a 2.73/contract credit.
Notes: Background implied isn't what it was a few short weeks ago, but it's still pretty high here at 89.6%. Looking to "wheel" this (i.e., short put, acquire, cover) if it breaks down; otherwise, perfectly happy to keep the premium. 5.22% ROC at max (if cash secured).
OPENING: C JULY 17TH 35 SHORT PUT... for a 1.22/contract credit.
Notes: Taking a small directional shot here in relatively high implied for a financial (42/53) that's been #CoronaHammered. Would also be fine with taking on shares and then proceeding to cover with a cost basis of 33.78, since it has dividends (4.4% yield).
OPENING (IRA): EWZ SEPTEMBER/JUNE 17/19 SHORT PUT LADDER... for a 1.44 credit.
It's not much of a ladder with only two rungs, but there's no July currently (there will be one after May opex, after which I'll consider adding a third rung).
An acquisitional play in high rank/implied (53/66) to potentially grab this divvy yielder (5.15%) at a discount.
OPENING: XLE JUNE 19TH 30 SHORT PUT... for a 1.06 credit/contract.
Notes: With rank/implied at 47/57, going bullish assumption here with the notion that oil prices recover somewhat as COVID-related restrictions lift. My general go-to is short strangle, but didn't want to get whipped on the call side if the recovery is dramatic.
OPENING: TQQQ JUNE 19TH 35 SHORT PUT (LATE POST)With rank/implied at 74/124 and the at-the-money short straddle paying a whopping 33% of the value of the stock price in the June expiry (57 days until expiry), sold the 84% probability of profit strike for a 2.06/contract credit late in the session.
Break even of 32.94.
CLOSING: /CL1! PUTSThis ... will leave a mark.
Simply too much risk to be naked/unhedged here in light of what occurred with the May contract, which may lather, rinse, repeat with the June.
OPENING: /CL APRIL 16TH 14 SHORT PUT... for an $850 credit.
Notes: With implied/rank at 67/181 and WTI crude at multi-year lows, adding in neutral to bullish assumption in April. Scratch at 22.41 for the whole show.
OPENING: CL1! MAY 14TH 15 SHORT PUT... for a $2260 credit.
Notes: Layering on some additional short put on weakness. Will begin to clean up near max loss April spreads here shortly ... . Scratch at 83.91.