... for a 1.60 credit. Notes: A small delta hedge. I'm just kind of organically adding/taking off to take profit and/or delta balance. Scratch at 15.60. Going out to March to take a little advantage of term structure, although the edge isn't much (January's trading at 59.07, March at 58.50). As a standalone trade, it's probably not bad: 81% probability of...
... for a 1.70 credit. Notes: A delta hedge to what I've already got on, taking a little advantage of backwardation in the /CL term structure. As a stand-alone trade, a bet that /CL doesn't finish below 48 by March.
... for a 1.50 credit. Notes: A delta adjustment trade in the December cycle. With the position skewing short and in anticipation of stripping off November's long put verticals (thus reducing position long delta) in short order, selling long delta here to all but return the entire spaghetti-works to net flat delta. Scratch at 9.20 versus current position value...
I think NFLX is going to keep heading up till earnings. It has a pretty interesting pattern of doing so. It's above it's 200, it's 50dma recently crossed upwards. So it seems like a good candidate for a neutral to bullish strategy. I'm thinking Short Put Vertical. (which would as far as I can tell mean that as long as the stock stays above the midpoint of my...
... for a .40/contract credit. Good ol' "buying"* on weakness ... . Metrics: Probability of Profit: 71% Max Profit: $40/contract Max Loss: $160/contract Break Even: 248.60 Notes: I entered the defined risk spread in my kid's small account and the naked variant (the May 19th 249 short put; 3.55/contract; break even 245.45) in mine. Will shoot for 50% max ... .
Metrics: Probability of Profit: 85% Max Profit: $65/contract at the mid* Max Loss: $235/contract Break Even: 15.65 * -- I usually like to get these filled for 2.25 or less. Notes: A slight variation on a term structure trade, which ordinarily uses the corresponding /VX futures price for guidance as to where to set up your spread. Here, instead of using the...
... for a .73 credit. Metrics: Probability of Profit: 29% Max Profit: $73/contract Max Loss: $127/contract Break Even: 11.27 Notes: VIX at sub-10 is about the only time I'll do a bullish assumption trade in VIX. Here, I'll look to money/take/run on any pop, although 50% max would be nice ... .
... for a 1.03 credit. I put this on "on the fly" on Friday. Basically, I'm looking to get a credit equal to max loss with these, so I put this in-the-money short put vertical on for a 1.03 credit with a buying power effect of .97 (risk one to make one) with the notion that contango* will erode the position running into expiry ... . Notes: Will look to "money,...
This is a defined risk variation on a Tom Preston (Dough/TastyWorks) play, where he sells the monthly SPY put with a 68% probability of expiring worthless. He generally does this on the Monday following the monthly opex; I'm doing it a few days early ... . While I'm using it as a delta hedge of a core SPY position (I'm in need of a touch of long delta), it's...
This really doesn't make sense to do in this low volatility environment as a stand alone trade, but I'm delta hedging/unit balancing out in the Jan 20th expiry ... . The Jan 20th IWM delta is overall a bit shorter than I'd like, so I'm just picking up some small long delta here to balance.
USDCAD H1 im buying at the 50% fibonacci level then i have a pedant order to short USDCAD
Using the Bollinger bands as a guide, I'm looking to reload a short volatility play should I be able to get a fill for the right price ... . Here, I'm looking for the basic 1/3rd the width of the spread for a fill price (i.e., 1/3rd of 3 = 1 or $100). I'm setting it up as a GTC order that will expire some time next week. I'll then have another look at the...
I did this one on Friday on the volatility pop we had, but didn't get a chance to post ... . I got it filled for an $87/contract credit, but could have done better were I to have had time to do some price discovery. SVXY isn't the most liquid thing in the world, so it pays to be patient and fiddle with getting a fill $5-$15 above the stated mid price. Here, I'm...
Continuing to work the call side up on this setup one strike at a time ... . With 7 DTE, and the put side of this setup nearing worthless, I thought I would close it out here for near max profit, which I did for a .04 ($4)/contract debit. I then proceeded to roll the Aug 19th 121/126 short call vert out to the Sept 2nd expiration, which I did for a small debit...
With 3 DTE in this post-Brexit troubled setup, I'm covering the put side for near worthless (for a .10/$10 debit). I have proceeded to roll out the short call side "as is" to the September monthly expiry (for a 2.18 ($218)/contract debit), but decided to wait a bit to sell a short put side against for a credit that exceeds the cost of the roll to see if we get...
Although I still have a little bit of time on this, it's too little time to effectively roll the short put side up of this setup here without pushing it in too tight to the call side for my taste, so I'm closing the put side out for a .10 ($10)/contract debit here and leaving the call side to dangle for a bit. As always, hope springs eternal that price will break...
This was my only "Bremain" bet trade, and it's taking its sweet time coming off the highs ... . The trade started out as a directional spread -- a short call vertical, that was soon breached post-Brexit. My recollection is that I proceeded to sell a short put vert against the call side (completing an iron condor) to protect the call side from further upmove. ...
... for a 1.10 ($110) credit. Here, I'm adding a touch of long delta into an existing RUT position (an iron condor) for which I do not feel comfortable rolling the short put side up further to protect that particular setup from further upside. Additionally, I get the side benefit of just adding a little long delta to my entire portfolio, which (no surprise) is a...