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MMM ShortI did a discounted cash flow valuation on 3m assuming a revenue growth rate of 5%, in line with 10, 5, and 3 year historical averages and it produced a valuation of $135. A 41% downside valuation... When I saw this I questioned the legitimacy, but played around with revenue growth rates and found, that, to justify it's current valuation of $236.55, MMM would need to see top-line growth of 12% YoY. Leave a comment and let me know what your thoughts on MMM are, for now I'm short them, but would love to hear some other view points.
NYSE:MMMShort
by StuartTabor
SHORTING US GOVT BONDSLet me warn you now, this is not a fundamental or technical analysis based trade. This is a speculation on my behalf based on a simple theory. As the US Federal Reserve continues to rise interest rates up to 3x this year, is it time that a true bear market in fixed income has come to fruition? Are the "safe" government bonds becoming one of the worst asset classes to be in? I would say it is up there, with the exception of tech and anything blockchain. It takes some basic algebra to figure out if bond prices will go up or down based on interest rate increases or decreases the PRESENT VALUE (Price) of the bond. In short, interest rates rise and prices fall, interest rates decrease prices increases. For most bonds, depending on default risk, upon maturity you are paid the face value. You have security in your principle if you can afford to wait. Another interesting component is that the longer the yield to maturity of the bond, the more sensitive to rises and falls in interest rates. So with some Bonds 101 behind us, let me give you the trade. I propose that based on the projection that if interest rates rise three times this year as forecasted by the market, long term bond prices will decline in the short term (1-2 years), so I propose that, given the sentiment in the expectation of further increases in interest rates we short #TLT, a 20+ Year Govt Bond ETF sponsored by iShares. Some things to be wary of: If equity markets continue to fall, say to 20% down from highs, this could cause the federal reserve to STOP increasing rates. (speculation on my behalf) As well, if the markets do fall and firms start to go under (smaller scale 2008), don't be suprised if they start to bail firms out, look at how rich it made the government after 2008... Dodd Frank requires banks to be able to withstand up to 10% unemployment, $383 Billion in loan losses, as well as " heightened stress in corporate loan markets and commercial real estate." A fianancial collapse is probably not out of the question, but I'm saying that if any of the above scenarios start to play out, this trade would be out the window. So yeah, bold bet for sure, but might be something to think about. Please, tell me where you think I could be wrong.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by StuartTabor
$BTCUSD fall is not over yet$BTC fall is not over yet in my opinion. The cross will likely turn bull temporarily to let the market brethe but will soon revert into the third wave and the cross could lose another 20% or more till it reaches its next support level around 8000$. From there, even if it is too early for a "prediction", seems like the market could return bull since the chart is forming a sort of bearish Gartley. Foundamentally speaking seems like governments (China, South Korea and even France) are more and more trying to "hard" regulate the crypto market and especially exchanges. This is not entirely a bad thing if you think about it. Putting your money at stake in highly unregulated exchanges where liquidity is not granted, may put investor at an even higher risk than investing in an highly volatile market. Although big players (professionals) are into the market we need to take into consideration that lots of small unexperienced investors joined it given the hype around such a commodity. There are lots of money at stake in the market and a crash or the failure of some exchanges can create a contagion effect that will hurt the economy as a whole. Be advised. As usual, this is not a trading advise, just my idea and analysis.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SteveEnnom
6
NEWA in for a Major ConsolidationWow, what a week for NEWA. Up over 50% in the last week this stock made major moves when the bulls rushed in to seize up cheap shares of a good company after it's presentation last week at the 2017 Disruptive Growth Conference in NYC. With respect to the 50 day moving average, the stock trades comfortably $8.50-$11 range, and I can see this company selling off towards those levels this week. I got in a bit early last week at $13.33 but I can't see this trend holding. So here is my game plan for a short trade with a time frame of a couple days. Entry/Increase Short Position: $13.48 TP1: 50% position @ $12.00 TP 2: 30% position @ $11.00 TP 3: Close out position @ $10.00
NShort
by StuartTabor
WTI Oil - Bearish Harami PatternIn this moment, we have a nice bearish harami pattern on the daily chart, this means that the retracement might be end. For confirmation, we must wait when candle is complete. The High of the second candle of harami pierced 61.8% Fibo. We have two signals for a bearish move and we could think that bulls run out of their force to push up the price. My forecast is based only for technical analisys, maybe with some fundamentals price could run up. If you have the same or different point of view or forecast, leave a comment below. Thanks :)
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by michele_laino