Potential GBPAUD reversal to downside.After closing last week with a shooting star back below the resistance level of 1.8250, we completed a fibonacci retracement of 71.00 on the daily TF. Creating a H&S pattern on the hourly TF we broke, closed below and retested the trend line and resistance level again. Im looking for a potential short to the D extension at 1.7700, with support in between at 1.8000 and 1.7900 . If we could break both supports, we might continue and break the weekly support of 1.7750 to continue to the next D extension and monthly support around 1.7500 - 1.7457. But I'd like to see the weekly support tested since we know there's a 75% chance of hitting the weekly key levels after breaking a monthly key level.
Shortsetup
USDJPY: What happened nextI compare the situation at 01/01/2019 with a few days previously (see video 4 min mark in screencast below). I've extracted value in this experience because this scenario and one similar in ETHUSD, leads me to a better confidence about spotting trend weaknesses and getting earlier on trend changes. I focus on curves in relation to trend-change indicators.
BTCUSDT Short Education/ Attention: New traders this is for you.In this example I am showing how to spot a short setup and when to enter a position.
As you can see BTC broke the lower trend line giving us something to keep an eye on. After the first initial candle broke the trend line you would have wanted to wait until either:
1. You had confirmation at that moment the trend was down before entering a position. Maybe some indicators led you to believe this.
2. Wait for one or two more candles to form. Maybe the indicators aren't really telling you much and its hard to make a decision.
The target's for this short position could have been T1 @ 7536 and T2 @7489
Those targets would have given you a very nice R:R of 5.25
In these scenarios its all about waiting for confirmation. If you don't you can get badly trapped and lose a lot of money.
We are all about making good trades on confluence.