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Bitcoin’s Battlefield: Support, Resistance and Trade SetupsBitcoin’s price has been showing signs of a sustained downtrend after forming a double top pattern. The recent action, combined with low volume and failure to breach key resistance zones, points to a likely retest of lower levels. Over the weekend, the price couldn’t break past the 85K resistance, and the low trading volume around this level suggests that buyer interest is waning. 6H TF Chart: Big Picture vs. Short-Term Action On a higher timeframe (6H), my indicator neatly outlines the bear market of 2022 and the bull market that started in early 2023—when the “cloud” turned green, signaling a shift in momentum. The cloud's lower boundary is currently at $73,364, which is key. Imo, holding above 70K is critical for keeping that bullish vibe alive. 1H TF Chart: Switching over to the 1H chart, the picture shows a bearish structure. The upper resistance around 95K (which aligns with the yearly open near $93,455.85) is proving a solid resistance. The anchored VWAP from the all-time high also sits right at this level, adding more weight to the resistance. Bulls need to clear this yearly open to signal a true recovery. Key Levels & Confluence Zones 1.) Upper Resistance – 93K to 95K: The 95K zone aligns closely with the yearly open ($93,455.85) and the anchored VWAP from the all-time high, both acting as resistance. Daily moving averages (62 EMA at ~$91,316 and 62 SMA at ~$94,900) provide further confluence. Additional resistance between 85K-86K. 2.) Critical Support – 73K to 70K Zone: The lower edge of the cloud on the 6H timeframe sits around 73K. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement (from the low at $15,473.78 to the all-time high at $109,354) is at $73,492, while the 0.618 retracement (from $49,217 to the all-time high) is around $72,205. Moving Averages on Weekly Chart: The weekly 62 EMA ($72,919) and 62 SMA ($71,590) align well with this support region. Additional Support: A bullish monthly order block at $71,320 adds another layer of confluence. Psychological Importance: A hold above 70K is critical to maintaining bullish momentum. 3.) Monthly Open – $83,385.74: This level serves as a pivot: price is currently hovering below it. A reclaim by bulls would be a positive sign for higher price action, while a rejection reinforces the bearish setup. Trade Setups Long Trade Setup: Entry: Consider laddering in between 75K and 70K as the price retests support. Take Profit: Aim for the monthly open (~84K) initially, and if support holds and flips, a move toward 90K could be considered. Stop Loss: Set below 70K to protect against a further downturn. Short Trade Setup: Entry: A short setup can start at the monthly open, using a laddering approach between 84K and about 86.9K. Take Profit: Target the previous low or 74K. Stop Loss: Place just above 87K to keep risk in check. Thank you for taking the time to read through this technical analysis. I hope it provides valuable insights for your trading decisions. Happy trading!
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by SiDec
9
USDJPY Setup: SHORT on 200 EMA Rejection📉 Best Risk/Reward Setup: SHORT on 200 EMA Rejection 🔻 Entry: Sell in the 148.50 - 148.80 zone after rejecting the 200 EMA (⚪) 🎯 Take-Profit (TP1): 146.50 (RRR: 5:1) 🎯 Take-Profit (TP2): 145.00 (RRR: 9:1) 🛑 Stop-Loss (SL): 149.20 📊 Market Overview & Bias 🟥 Bearish Outlook (Macro Trend - Daily & 4H) ✅ USD/JPY remains in a clear downtrend, trading below the 200 EMA (⚪). ✅ Price has consistently rejected the 100 EMA (🟡) as resistance. ✅ Lower highs and lower lows are forming on the daily & 4H charts. ✅ If 146.50 breaks, next downside targets are 145.00 and 143.50. 🟩 Short-Term Bullish Retracement (1H & 30M) 🔹 USD/JPY has found temporary support at 146.50. 🔹 RSI shows bullish divergence, suggesting a possible short-term bounce. 🔹 If price breaks 148.00, we could see a move toward 149.00 – but this remains a counter-trend move within a larger downtrend. 📉 Why This Trade? 🔻 Major resistance at the 200 EMA (⚪) and previous swing highs. 🔻 The macro trend is bearish, so selling rallies is safer than counter-trend longs. 🔻 RSI may enter the overbought zone, signaling a sell opportunity. 🔻 If price struggles at 148.50, expect another bearish impulse. ⚠️ Trading carries a high level of risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always manage your risk carefully and never trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. 💬 Do you think USD/JPY will respect the 200 EMA or break through? Drop your thoughts below! 👇🔥
Short
by VidaDeTraderPT
1
XAUUSD - Short Trade after Resistance Test ($3,005 - $3,010)Short after Resistance Test ($3,005 - $3,010) 📌 Entry: Sell within the $3,005 - $3,010 range if there is a clear rejection and price weakness. 🎯 Take-Profit 1: $2,985 (immediate support) 🎯 Take-Profit 2: $2,970 (recent lows) 🛑 Stop-Loss: $3,015 (above resistance) 🔹 Probability: High – Confirmed by weak volume on rallies and strong resistance. Trade Rationale: Key Resistance Zone ($3,005 - $3,010): This level has historically acted as a supply zone, where sellers step in to push prices lower. If price action shows rejection (e.g., wicks or bearish engulfing candles), it confirms a high-probability short setup. Weak Volume on Rallies: Volume analysis suggests that bullish momentum lacks strong participation. A rising price with decreasing volume often signals an exhaustion of buyers, increasing the probability of a reversal. Technical Indicators Align: RSI (Relative Strength Index): Overbought or showing bearish divergence, signaling potential downside pressure. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Losing bullish momentum or forming a bearish crossover, indicating potential for a pullback. Donchian Trend & Moving Averages : Price is testing upper Donchian bands and key moving averages are suggesting overextension. Risk-Reward Ratio: > The stop-loss at $3,015 ensures protection against false breakouts. > The first take-profit ($2,985) targets the nearest support, locking in quick profits. > The second take-profit ($2,970) aligns with recent swing lows, maximizing the downside potential. Final RRR (TP2) is 1 : 3,4 Conclusion: A rejection from the $3,005 - $3,010 resistance zone presents a solid short opportunity, backed by weak bullish momentum, technical confluence, and favorable risk-reward. If the price fails to break higher and shows signs of rejection, this trade setup has a strong probability of success. ⚠️ Final Warning: Trading involves significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and never trade with money you can't afford to lose. This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. What do you think about this setup? Would you take this trade? Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VidaDeTraderPT
SOL Trading Plan: Stacking Entries Like a ProSolana (SOL) has been in a slow uptrend over the past five days, after hitting the low at $112. The current price action looks like an ABC corrective pattern, which could mean we’re setting up for lower prices. To get the best trade execution, we'll use a laddered entry approach, meaning we’ll scale into positions gradually instead of going all in at once. This helps us get a better average entry price while managing risk effectively. By placing orders at key levels, we increase our chances of catching the right move without overcommitting too early. Resistance Zone ($136 - $143.80) A major resistance zone has formed between $136 - $143.80, where price is likely to struggle. This area contains multiple technical confluences that suggest a potential reversal or strong reaction: $136 – 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement $140.09 – 1:1 Trend-Based Fibonacci Extension $141.40 – Anchored VWAP from the $179.85 swing high $143.80 – Point of Control (POC) from the 19-day Fixed Range Volume Profile This makes $136 - $143.80 a prime area to consider short positions, especially if price starts showing weakness. Support Zone ($102.1 - $98.50) On the downside, a major demand zone is forming between $102.1 - $98.50, where buyers are likely to step in aggressively. This zone has multiple technical confluences, making it a high-probability long entry area: $102.1 – 2024 Yearly Open & Monthly Support $100 – Bullish Monthly Order Block & Anchored VWAP Support $98.50 – Final key demand zone This zone presents a solid long opportunity, allowing for gradual scaling into positions as price moves deeper into support. Short Trade Setup – Laddered Entry Approach Instead of entering all at once, we’ll ladder into the short position gradually, starting small and increasing size as price moves deeper into resistance. Short Entry Levels & Position Sizing Trade Details Average Entry Price: $140.12 Take Profit Target: slightly above $102.10 (Monthly Level) Stop Loss: slightly above $146.70 (Above POC) Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R): ~6:1 Long Trade Setup – Laddered Entry Approach For the long setup, we start with small entries at higher prices and increase size as price moves deeper into support, ensuring a better average entry in a key demand zone. Long Entry Levels & Position Sizing Trade Details Average Entry Price: $102.72 Take Profit Target: slightly below $120.00 Stop Loss: slightly below $95.00 Risk-Reward Ratio (R:R): ~2.45:1 Market Outlook Short Bias: Until price reclaims $143.80, this remains a strong resistance zone for potential short trades. Short Setup: Laddering into resistance ensures better risk management and higher average entry efficiency. Long Setup: Starting small at $112 and increasing position size down to $98.50 ensures strong positioning in a high-confluence demand zone. By scaling into trades rather than committing at a single price, we increase flexibility, improve trade execution, and adapt better to price movements. 🚀 Weekly Timeframe - 200 EMA Support $100 coincides with the 200 EMA on the weekly timeframe, adding confluence to this area as strong support. If Solana decisively breaks above $144, it would invalidate the short thesis and suggest a potential move higher toward $150. Conversely, a strong rejection from the resistance zone would likely accelerate the move toward $112 to test demand at swing low.
Short
by SiDec
14
USD/JPY Trend in Upcoming Trading Session - Bearish?🔔🔔🔔 USD/JPY news: 👉The latest US CPI report shows that headline inflation rose by 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9% and slower than January’s 3% increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, eased to 3.1% from the previous 3.3%, while economists had anticipated a moderate slowdown to 3.2%. On a monthly basis, both headline and core inflation rose by 0.2%, falling short of the forecasted 0.3% increase. 👉With inflationary pressures cooling, traders are expected to increase their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in May. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Friday that the central bank's restrictive policy stance will not persist for long if the labor market weakens unexpectedly or inflation declines more than anticipated. 👉The US Dollar has remained weak in recent weeks, as investors believe that former President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could slow economic growth, with higher import duties potentially reducing household purchasing power. 👉Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has been underperforming its counterparts despite major Japanese companies agreeing to significant wage increases for the third consecutive year, according to a Reuters report. This could strengthen inflation expectations and raise the likelihood of the Bank of Japan implementing another rate hike this year. Personal opinion: 👉Based on economic information, it can be seen that USD/JPY will maintain its downward momentum in the coming time. Technical analysis: 👉Shows signs of price breaking the trend line and touching the pivot point of the Pivot points RSI (1H) shows signs of reversing down after entering the overbought zone Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Buy USD/JPY 148.40 – 148.60 ❌SL: 1.4340 | ✅TP: 148.00 – 147.60 – 147.00 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
2
EUR/USDd Trend This Week – Bearish?🔔🔔🔔 EUR/USD news: 👉The US Dollar (Greenback) strengthens as President Donald Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs take effect on Wednesday. The White House confirmed that a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum will be implemented as planned, affecting key US allies and top suppliers, including Canada and Mexico. 👉Additionally, increasing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates twice more by summer could put pressure on the Euro against the USD. Traders have already factored in two additional rate cuts, driven by strong confidence that Eurozone inflation will steadily return to the 2% target this year. Personal opinion: 👉DXY bounces sharply after falling to a multi-week low 👉EUR/USD RSI (4H) shows signs of divergence 👉Europe is caught in a trade war with the US despite the two sides being trade allies, which will weaken the EUR more than the USD ➡️➡️➡️Indicating the possibility that EUR/USD will decline in the near future Analysis: 👉Based on important resistance - support levels combined with pivot points standard and SMA to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell EUR/USD 1.1000 - 1.1010 ❌SL: 1.1050 | ✅TP: 1.0940 - 1.0880 - 1.0800 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
EURUSD continue decrease H1 🔔🔔🔔 EURUSD news: 👉The EUR/USD pair slips to around 1.0835 during Asian trading hours on Friday, as the Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid rising trade tensions between the United States and the European Union. Later in the day, market participants will focus on Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for March. Personal opinion: 👉Price is falling along the trendline, the main trend of H1, along with the increase of the dollar through tax policies. EURUSD continues to be under downward pressure (Trump administration threatens new tax rates for EU) Technical analysis: 👉trendline H1 + resistance ( news USD today ) Plan: 🔆Price Zone Setup: 👉SELL EURUSD 1.08400 - 1.08500 ❌SL: 1.08800 ✅TP: 40 - 70 -120 PIPS FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
AUD/USD Upcoming Trend – Bearish🔔🔔 AUD/USD news: 👉The AUD/USD pair experienced a sharp decline to around 0.6280 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The Australian Dollar faced significant selling pressure as the US Dollar strengthened amid a cautious market atmosphere. Investors shifted towards safe-haven assets due to concerns that US President Donald Trump’s "America First" policies could lead to a global economic slowdown. 👉The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surged to nearly 104.00, rebounding from a four-month low of 103.20 recorded on Tuesday. 👉 Meanwhile, weak market sentiment has reduced the appeal of the Australian Dollar. The outlook for the Aussie remains uncertain, particularly after the US imposed 20% tariffs on China. Given Australia’s heavy reliance on exports to China, the AUD often reflects the state of the Chinese economy. Personal opinion: 👉In the current risky environment, AUD is not a good choice for investors, so AUD/USD will decrease in the near future Analysis 👉Technically, RSI (1H) is still in the sell zone. The 3 SMA lines are showing signs of converging at 1 point, signaling a strong momentum is about to happen. The price has broken down from the trend line. All of this leads to the possibility that the price will decrease in the near future 🔆 Resistance level: 0.6330 0.6355 🔆 Support level: 0.6284 0.6200 Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell AUD/USD 0.6290 – 0.6300 ❌SL: 0.6340 | ✅TP: 0.6250 – 0.6205 – 0.6160 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
1
How to continue to short (2)As in my last analysis, currently XAUUSDXAUUSD is about to hit that 2945-2948 Operation policy reference： Short Position Strategy 1:XAUUSD sell@2945-2948 20%Transaction of funds ， tp:2930-2920-2910 2:XAUUSD Buy@2910-2915 20%Transaction of funds ， tp:2930-2945-2955 The Signals have timeliness , if you also need to get accurate signals every day，follow the link below to get my daily strategy updates If your account is still in the red, you need to pay attention to whether the resistance is valid. If the resistance is valid, there may be a decline. You can close your order on the decline and trade in the right direction again
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by BenGray9
How to continue to short After experiencing intraday volatility, XAUUSD rebounded from the bottom after the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the evening. The price dropped to the 0.382 support level of the upward retracement at the lowest. In terms of this retracement, the range is relatively small, which fully demonstrates that the bulls remain strong. The price level of 2930 has withstood market tests for many times, and there is a high probability of a subsequent breakout. Therefore, the main trading strategy should focus on going long and anticipating a breakout. Calculated based on the magnitude of the previous upward trend, the price of XAUUSD is expected to rise to 2940/2960. Operation policy reference： Short Position Strategy 1:XAUUSD sell@2945-2948 20%Transaction of funds ， tp:2930-2920-2910 2:XAUUSD Buy@2910-2915 20%Transaction of funds ， tp:2930-2945-2955 The Signals have timeliness , if you also need to get accurate signals every day，follow the link below to get my daily strategy updates If your account is still in the red, you need to pay attention to whether the resistance is valid. If the resistance is valid, there may be a decline. You can close your order on the decline and trade in the right direction again
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by BenGray9
#BANANAUSDT maintains bearish momentum📉 Short BYBIT:BANANAUSDT.P from $14.905 🛡 Stop loss $15.490 🕒 1H Timeframe ⚡️ Overview: ➡️ The main POC (Point of Control) is at 16.112, indicating the area with the highest trading volume. ➡️ The 15.490 level acts as a local resistance, as the price previously faced selling pressure there. ➡️ The volume and market profile highlight areas of high trader activity, especially in the 14.250 – 15.500 range. ➡️ The chart shows a potential decline after an impulse move and profit-taking. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP 1: $14.580 💎 TP 2: $14.250 💎 TP 3: $13.920 📢 Monitor key levels before entering the trade! 📢 If 15.490 is broken upward, the trade may be invalidated. 📢 If the price continues to decline and breaks through TP 1, the downside potential remains. BYBIT:BANANAUSDT.P maintains bearish momentum — expecting further downside movement!
Short
by MoriartyTrading
Gold price recovers, waiting for CPI inflation data today⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: The US 10-year Treasury yield rebounds, rising six basis points to 4.282% as markets focus on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, US real yields—measured by the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which typically move inversely to gold prices—climb 5.5 basis points to 1.963%, posing a headwind for the non-yielding metal. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model projects a -2.4% contraction for Q1 2025, marking the first negative reading since the COVID-19 pandemic. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Recovering in the sideway price range below 2930 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥SELL GOLD zone: $2928 - $2930 SL $2935 TP1: $2920 TP2: $2910 TP3: $2900 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2894 - $2896 SL $2889 TP1: $2900 TP2: $2910 TP3: $2920 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Nova-Scalper
1
From Boom to Bust? Nvidia Warns of a Potential 50% DropAfter an incredible rally, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA has finally hit a wall at its all−time high of $140, failing to secure a strong monthly close above this critical resistance level. This stagnation at the peak is a red flag for the stock’s near-term momentum. Since the rally began in 2016, the monthly chart has been overwhelmingly bullish, with only a few exceptions: 2018, 2022, and now 2024, where the monthly chart has printed a bearish engulfing candle. Historically, when this pattern has appeared, it has led to steep retraces. Based on the median pullback from the past two occurrences, we could see a 50% decline by mid 2025 from current levels, a potential bloodbath for unprepared investors. Is this a guaranteed outcome? Of course not. But higher timeframes carry significant weight in macro price action, and this bearish signal is too significant to ignore. Stay alert—volatility ahead! While a short-term pump toward the $140s is more than likely, it’s important to recognize that this move will feel more like a dead cat bounce than a sustainable recovery. For those considering a short position, this potential bounce could offer the perfect entry point. However, unless NVDA can achieve a strong break above $150 and successfully flip this level into support, there’s no compelling reason to turn bullish here. The macro warning signs remain intact, and the risk of a deeper retrace increases.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by ZelfTrade
SUI - Short or Long? The Ultimate SUI Trade BlueprintHere’s an update to the analysis I did one month ago on February 10. Since then, SUI has continued to show its bearish tendencies—making lower highs and lower lows. After that dramatic 30% drop from a golden pocket short opportunity, the price started inching up on low volume. This weak rally suggests that while buyers are testing the ceiling, the overall trend remains down. That sets the stage for two possible plays: a short trade if the price reaches the resistance zone, and a long trade if it bounces off a strong support level. 1. Identification of Support and Resistance Zones Resistance Zone (for the Short Trade): Daily Resistance: ~2.7888 Point of Control (POC): Around 2.8035 Monthly Open: 2.83 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement: 2.8711 All these levels combine to create a robust resistance area where sellers are likely to step in. Support Zone (for the Long Trade): $2 Psychological Level: A key round number that attracts attention. 0.7 Fibonacci Retracement: Derived from the swing low of $0.4625 to the high of $5.3687, this places an important level at 1.9344 (just below $2). Monthly Bullish Order Block: At 1.9137, indicating buying interest. Fib Speed Fan (0.786): Points to support near the $2 mark. POC: 2.0225 Anchored VWAP: Calculated from the deep low at $0.362, which again aligns around $2. These multiple layers of confluence make the $2 area a strong support zone and an attractive entry point for a long trade. 2. Short Trade Setup The Plan: Building a short position gradually using a laddering strategy. With a $15,000 allocation from a $100,000 account, scale in at different levels to keep risk in check. Scaling In (Entry Levels): Entry # Entry Price % of Position Amount Invested ($) 1 2.6808 5% $750 2 2.7070 5% $750 3 2.7314 10% $1,500 4 2.7552 10% $1,500 5 2.7755 10% $1,500 6 2.7990 15% $2,250 7 2.8242 20% $3,000 8 2.8485 25% $3,750 Total: Avg. ~2.7924 $15,000 Stop Loss: Set at $3.07, limiting the risk to about $1,506 (roughly 10% of the trade allocation or 1.51% of the account). Scaling Out (Exit Levels): Exit Cover Price % of Position Amount Paid to Cover ($) 1 2.7925 5% $750.02 2 2.1715 5% $583.23 3 2.1365 10% $1,147.66 4 2.0981 20% $2,254.07 5 2.0630 20% $2,216.36 6 2.0257 10% $1,088.14 7 1.9930 15% $1,605.87 8 1.9625 15% $1,581.29 Outcome: Total: Avg. ~2.09 $11,226.65 Net Profit: $15,000 (initial proceeds) – $11,226.65 (cost to cover) = $3,773.35 Profit % on Trade: +25.16% Risk-to-Reward Ratio (R:R): Approximately 2.51 This laddering approach helps to secure profits at various levels while managing the risk effectively. 3. Long Trade Setup The $2 support zone is a magnet, backed by multiple confluences. When SUI tests this area and shows signs of a rebound, it sets up a great opportunity to go long. Key Support Details: $2 Psychological Level: A well-watched price point. 0.7 Fibonacci Retracement: Places a key level at 1.9344 from the low ($0.4625) to the high ($5.3687). Monthly Bullish Order Block: At 1.9137, adding to the support. Fib Speed Fan (0.786): Confirms support near $2. POC & Anchored VWAP: Both clustering around $2 (POC at 2.0225 and VWAP from a low of $0.362). Trade Details: Entry: Buy at $2.00 Target: Sell at $2.337 for an approximate 20%+ gain Stop Loss: Set just below $1.80 to protect against further downside Risk-to-Reward Ratio: About 2.44 or better Wrapping It Up In this dual-setup strategy, we're well-prepared for different market outcomes: Short Trade: If SUI rallies into the tightly clustered resistance zone, scale into a short with defined entries, exits, and a stop loss that caps our risk at about 1.51% of the account. Exit ladder aims for an average cover price of around $2.09, netting a neat profit of approximately $3,773 (or +25.16% on the trade). Long Trade: Conversely, if SUI finds strong footing at the confluence-rich $2 support zone, we can flip to a long position. Entering at $2.00, with a target of $2.337 and a stop loss below $1.80, gives an attractive risk-to-reward ratio of roughly 2.44. This approach lets us capitalise on both sides of the market. Keep an eye on volume and price action. Happy trading! P.S. If you have any coin requests, feel free to share them in the comments. I will be selecting one or two for the next TA.
Short
by SiDec
4
$ADBE deteriorating MOAT ; Still Expensive; PT < $350- NASDAQ:ADBE is one of the blue chip company of the last decade. - However, Chicken has come to roost. - Core products of NASDAQ:ADBE like acrobat are useless. One can use ChatGPT or any AI tool to parse and get the information. Google Doc for creating a PDF - Adobe designer tool might still be used but AI tools are taking over which provides done for you. Apart from that Canva & Figma are way better and easier to use NASDAQ:ADBE - NASDAQ:ADBE products are hard to use and have huge learning curve. On top of that, NASDAQ:ADBE engages in shady subscription practices where it doesn't let user cancel subscription and ask people to go through customer support potentially delaying cancellation to bill users. - NASDAQ:ADBE despite having huge datasets of images isn't able to launch a good AI model. Firefly by Adobe is Joke and not good enough. Fundamentally, it is still trading at a premium. Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 EPS | 20.39 | 23.01 | 25.56 | 27.02 EPS % growth | 11.61% | 12.82% | 11.11% | 5.72% Base Case ( Lenient ): Ideally, for a blue chip company with a MOAT growing EPS at 11-15% ; Failr forward P/E should be 20. For them, who are willing to pay forward p/e of 20 Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock price (F. p/e = 20) | 407 | 460 | 500 | 540 Base Case ( conservative ): However, I believe NASDAQ:ADBE MOAT has been severely challenged and should doesn't command a premium multiple. Therefore, according to me, fair forward p/e should be 15 Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock price (F. p/e=15) | 305 | 345 | 383 | 405 Extreme Bear Case : If we account for recession, We could see further compression in forward p/e ~ 10. Extreme bear case, where they miss EPS or revenue or both and guide lower. Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock price (F. p/e=10) | 200 | 230 | 255 | 270 Bull Case ( F. p/e = 25 ) Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 Stock price (F. p/e=25) | 509 | 575 | 639 | 675
NASDAQ:ADBEShort
by bigbull037
1
$ABNB sliding moat; slumpy housing market + recession incoming- NASDAQ:ABNB has a sliding moat problem - slumpy housing market + recession incoming should lead to compressed multiple - NASDAQ:ABNB used to be wall street poster child and commanded premium multiple but that moat is no longer here. - NASDAQ:BKNG is the OG of travel booking. - NASDAQ:ABNB is useful only when you are travelling in a big group where booking rooms in a hotel becomes expensive. - Nothing unique about NASDAQ:ABNB , Verbo offers same thing and many hotel aggregator has started showing individual properties owned by owner. - Regulation in cities in favour of long term tenants is welcomed as it will help in easing inflation for rental units which is always sticky. - Technicals looks like a wedge which should break to the downside. Ideally, NASDAQ:ABNB should trade below $85 to look compelling investment. - Otherwise avoid this stock
NASDAQ:ABNBShort
by bigbull037
USD/JPY Upcoming Trend – Will It Continue Falling?🔔🔔🔔 USD/JPY news: 👉The Japanese Yen (JPY) maintains its upward momentum against a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD) during the early European session on Monday, driven by expectations of further interest rate hikes from the BoJ. Market participants are increasingly convinced that the BoJ will tighten its policy again, a sentiment reinforced by data released earlier today showing a 1.8% decline in real cash earnings due to persistent inflation. Additionally, strong wage growth from last year is expected to continue, further supporting the case for policy tightening. This has led to rising Japanese government bond (JGB) yields, narrowing the rate gap between Japan and other economies, which in turn strengthens the JPY. 👉Meanwhile, lingering concerns over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policies and a possible global trade war continue to boost the JPY's appeal as a safe-haven asset. 👉On the other hand, the USD remains under pressure, hovering near its lowest level since November, following Friday's weaker US jobs report. The disappointing data has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will implement multiple rate cuts this year, further weakening the USD and weighing on the USD/JPY pair. Given this backdrop, the overall market sentiment favors JPY bulls, suggesting that the currency pair is likely to trend lower in the near term. Personal opinion: 👉USD/JPY will continue to decline after disappointing economic data for the USD 👉Technically, in the short term, the USD is recovering slightly when it touches a strong support level - the lowest level since November 5, 2024. However, this upward recovery will not last long. Analysis: 👉Based on important resistance - support zones combined with trend lines and SMA to come up with a suitable strategy Plan: 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell USD/JPY 147.40 - 147.50 ❌SL: 147.90 | ✅TP: 147.00 – 146.60 – 146.20 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
Short
by FM-ForexMastermind
2
USD/CHF Trading Trend Today - Is the Downtrend Continuing?🔔🔔🔔 USD/CHF news: 👉The February labor market report in the US closely matched expectations, with job growth reaching 151K (forecast: +160K, previous: +143K). Despite the recent layoff of 30,000 public sector workers and a decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies set for this summer, employment gains remain solid. The unemployment rate inched up to 4.1% in February from 4.0% in January. Overall, the report did not indicate immediate risks of recession or economic overheating, although other indicators have recently suggested a gradual softening of the US economy. 👉On the geopolitical front, Trump has proposed the possibility of imposing significant new US sanctions and tariffs on Russia to push for peace negotiations regarding Ukraine. Meanwhile, US and Ukrainian officials are set to meet in Saudi Arabia this week, with hopes that these discussions will yield better results than President Zelenskyy's recent visit to the White House, which led to the US halting military aid and intelligence support for Kyiv. Personal opinion: 👉In the long term, President Trump's tariff policy still poses many risks and has a negative impact on the USD 👉Technically, the RSI indicator in most frames has entered the oversold zone and is showing signs of convergence. This signals a short-term upward correction for this currency pair 👉At the same time, DXY is also recovering in an upward direction after meeting a strong support level today Analysis: 👉Based on SMA and important resistance - support levels combined with pivot points standard to come up with a suitable strategy 🔆 Price Zone Setup: 👉Sell USD/CHF 0.8860 - 0.8870 ❌SL: 0.8905 | ✅TP: 0.8820 - 0.8780 - 0.8740 - 0.8700 FM wishes you a successful trading day 💰💰💰
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by FM-ForexMastermind
1