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BTC PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the BTC chart is bearish. Please be reminded that the price movement displayed is evidence of a previous cycle from where we got rejected at 30-32k range, you may use that as a reference on a separate browser while comparing the two. Before listing my reasoning for the bearish price action, here are the possible edges that you may use as valid factors for maintaining your shorts: The impending doom for the overpriced housing market and its highly potential crash The Pandemic that has still caused multiple variant to remain challenging since 2020 and has not been given an epidemic-endemic status. The Russian-Ukraine War that has yet to be resolved and would likely not be in the longer term until Putin's goal is accomplished. The consistent strength of monthly negative Consumer Price Index reports showing increasing amount of inflation. Increasing amount of Rate Hikes by the FED to challenge inflation (Possible 100 Point Rate Hike) ------------------------------------------------------- Now that the macro-economic factors are listed, let me explain to you the price action shown above. A descending triangle is formed in any timeframe specifically and advisably in the 1H-4H timeframe and the 12H-1D timeframe, such pattern is usually a slow consolidation to the downside with a potential breakout to the upside at its latter. This is confirmed pattern to be used due to the "WEAKNESS" displayed every time we are nearly approaching the 22-23k$ region. The price level was rejected previously on June 16 followed by a daily candle rejection on June 21 and as of today's price reading June 26, the price is displaying significant amount of indecision and lack of volume which is manifested into a "Doji". The red daily candle doji is displayed slightly below the highest peak of yesterday's price action which was at 21,599$ instead of closing higher to confirm a bullish bias. A weakness on the trend due to indecision is a warning sign for a potential sell-off back to the previous support of 20,700 to a potential temporary bottom of 20,000$, after that it is followed by another re-test of up to a maximum of 21,200$ being confirmed as resistance (TRIPLE TOP) and sending it down in a staircase-like manner to a maximum temporary bottom of 19,600$ which will serve as support similar to the 29k region. After that, it will now enter a consolidation pattern from 19,600 to 20,800$ for a while until it breaks out to the upside to validate the descending triangle. The breakout to the upside will ultimately be a disbelief rally, a showcase of a desperate attempt to get out of the bearish bias which is also what we call a manipulation wick by market makers to grab liquidity out of a tight consolidation. It will most likely break tremendously beyond the 21,600$ (which was the the price for a double top) and reach a maximum of 23,800$ but not more than 24,600$, anything beyond 24k is a definite short given the fact that there are no positive fundamentals behind the pump (e.g. Lowered Inflation, Lowering Rate Hikes, Pandemic to Epidemic Status, War stopped, etc.) The manipulation pump wick will most likely bottom out the same price at which it pumped from for days and it will be on a stair-case pattern building market structure to the downside which will give time for moving averages on the daily timeframe to cross over at its end confirming a breakdown towards the previous support (17,000-18,000$). ------------------------------------------------------- F A Q S Question 1: What are the possible invalidation points? Answer: A descending triangle pattern is completely invalidated if we get a volume pump up until 24k which is a temporary short level and will most likely use 22k as brand new support for further legs to the upside. This completely validates, on the other hand, the Reverse HnS. Question 2: Are dojis entirely reliable? Answer: They do not indicate a definite move, but they help shape your decision on the gravity of the trend especially if it has been previously rejected in daily timeframes. In this case, it shows weakness potentially decreasing chances a further bullish move since it is not supported by a decent amount of volume. Remember that even if it goes up to 22k, it doesn't confirm anything until it hits 23,200$ or 24,000$. It will most likely just warrant itself a HnS pattern or a quick liquidity grab of stop losses above 22k but not more than 23k. Question 3: Do you use any other indicators to help confirm this pattern? Answer: Definitely. I use the Relative Strength Index, Volume Profile, Bollinger Bands, and the MACD. In the RSI, we are definitely oversold in the macro timeframe but this is often a lagging indicator and does not constitute ripples from minor timeframe that could escalate its way up to the larger timeframes. In higher TFs (at least 4H), we do not see any strong momentum on the bullish bias, it is just in the middle of the index indicating neutral pace. The MACD on the 8 hour, 12 hour and daily timeframe are unreliable as they are lagging significantly, ,the 4H timeframe shows a HnS on the buying pressure which ultimately favors the bears in the end. Question 4: Do you use leverage or margin trading? Answer: I do not margin trade, but I do futures trading and the way I use it is not based on a tight percentage ratio of risk-reward as I find it to be completely strict and not versatile enough to include other trading techniques such as hedging and would most likely cut off your potential profits or stop losses earlier. The true key for using leverage is to find moves with confirmation that there is a high possibility of you winning that trade with reference to past previous price actions, taking account fundamentals to inform your decisions and as well as ACCEPTING mentally and emotionally that you are risking this certain amount of money to get stopped at a reasonable level (trend turnovers) if in any case you are wrong. I abhor revenge trading. Thank you for reading and I hope you get a good short trade on this. If you do end up profitable on this move, do not forget to like, comment about your experiences and share to your friends! -Wamses
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by Wamses
2
ETH PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the ETH asset is bearish. Please be reminded that the chart displayed is very similar to the BTC chart posted on June 26, 2022 -- You may visit my profile to further confirm the move I took for shorting it. Here are several analyses explanation that could help you maintain your short or reconsider your bullish bias in the short term and maybe in the long term as well. ----------- Pattern Analysis The price action/market structure on 1H-4H and 8H-1D timeframes actually confirm an initial inverse head-and-shoulders pattern which is a bullish structure, however it was proven in time that there is a very, very strong resistance in the 1300$ region which displays an immediate rejection on a minor short squeeze to 1280$. The projected pattern that is now created due to the invalidation of the previous one is a Standard Head and Shoulders pattern which is bearish and would target itself to near 1,000$ level where it could find temporary support. The said price structure is also in a descending triangle pattern which is often seen as a continuation pattern to the downside or a bullish breakout at the latter of its tight consolidation, however since fundamentals strictly influence the price structure of bitcoin in a bearish sentiment, we will support the projection to further downside levels even in the case of a later breakout from the triangle. ----------- Fundamental Analysis The FED meeting later in Wednesday (June 29, 2022) will probably end up on discussions on further rate-hikes, other economic concerns and continuous neutral statements by Jack Powell to mitigate panic among investors and companies, however this meeting will be more than likely a catalyst that could bring assets to the downside (or consolidate) as we will have to wait for the Consumer Price Index Reports from the month of June to really confirm if the 75-point rate hike is really effective. If in any case that the inflation rate still increased despite the increased rate-hike, further rate hikes would warrant a definite move to the downside. Any statement by Jack Powell to mitigate panic is not to be taken as anything bullish as results matter more than words. The Housing Market Crisi s is now at a very brink of a decline as overly inflated prices still linger and continuously rise at an unhealthy pace that could be worrisome. Latest data shows that the market growth of this sector is 15% above the fundamentals long term which is not, in any way, a good sign. However, this will not incur a 2008-Style Recession would happen as we now currently have tighter and safer standards to combat such event, but it does not mean that declines are impossible. This is a good buying opportunity for household investors, but they may have to wait for a greater price and time. The COVID-19 Pandemic is still yet to be converted to an Epidemic-Endemic Status as people globally still have to deal with periodical vaccines to keep up. It is hard to pinpoint when and how will these vaccines remain constant in any economy given the fact that new variants (and new improved vaccines) are still being made due to uncontrollable spread of exposure (the term "uncontrollable" is linked to how businesses and gatherings cannot be fully stopped and will often happen both publicly and privately despite restrictions). There is no such thing as completely eradicating these viruses in the first place as their mechanism of replication is through living cells, this means that as long as there are people and animals around, they will always be around but this does not mean that they cannot be controlled proven by the fact on how we dealt with the previous pandemics "Spanish Flu" and the "Polio Virus". The Ukrainian-Russian War is still active and would most likely not seek any end until Putin's goal is accomplished which is to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine . Other possible goals of Vladimir Putin is to potentially get Ukraine rendered as neutral status and a friendly country within the Russian sphere of influence (no NATO involvement), for it and other countries to recognize the jurisdiction of Russia over Crimea and to remove some of the international sanctions imposed on them. However, these will prove more than challenging to do as Ukraine fully intends to involve itself in NATO affairs. The Crypto Space has been incredibly bearish thanks to the most influential crash of 2022 regarding LUNA and its company Terra along with their CEO, Kwon Do-hyung (Do Kwon). This alone started a major catalyst of a complete breakdown of the multi-month support of BTC$ around 30,000$ followed by the increasing amounts of inflation which nailed the crypto coffin down below the monthly and yearly moving averages at around 17,800$. Due to these massive legs to the downside, retail investors are more cautious and anxious to even consider investing despite the massive amount of buying opportunities in a technical standpoint. The fear is also amplified by some crypto-exchanges suddenly withholding funds due to potential bankruptcies especially in the case of 3-Arrow and Celsius, Coinbase and Robinhood on the other hand, have already laid off a decent chunk of their employees as a sign of financial struggle to keep up with the market downturns. ----------- Technical Analysis On a macro-time frame (1D) chart, we can see an incredible amount of low volume in the price action of ETH from 880$ to 1,280$ which is not a very good sign and deliberately shows weakness in maintaining the movement. A low volume price action are also prone to manipulation wicks, which in the case of a bear market, is ever more than terrifying to hold both ways due to intense volatility. The Volume Profile (if you can pull it out yourself) shows a tremendous amount of volume traffic expected around the 300-500$ region with little to no volume from 600-750$ which means that these are unreliable demand levels if we fail to uphold the 17,000-18,000$ region (This could be the catalyst case if the CPI reports next month show an increased amount of inflation despite the recent increase in rate hike). The Relative Strength Index shows that we are still oversold but due to the fact that this is a lagging indicator as well as in the case for MACD, it is still recommended that we use decently smaller timeframes (1H-8H) to further confirm the strength of any trend or volume that can ripple its way to larger timeframes (1D,1W,1M,1Y). You can almost draw four solid patterns in the current chart: A reverse HnS (failed), a HnS (still yet to be finished), a descending triangle (still yet to be finished) and a rising wedge from 17,800-21,800$ (confirmed due to breakdown). In all summary, we are heading down in the short term until further bullish bias is entering the macro-markets. If you liked the information above, don't forget to like and follow me for more future updates! You may also share this to your friends. Thank you for reading! -Wamses
COINBASE:ETHUSDShort
by Wamses
(Boeing) BA Short I believe we could see a short term price decline in the BA stock. This might be a good opportunity for a short term bearish/short trade through stocks or options. The price has been on a long term downtrend, since approximately Nov 2021. Making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. I have attached an image here of the BA chart on Daily candles, along with several indicators that give us high probability of a bearish price action. Through my analysis, I see the following: 1. BA June 28th 2022 price action created a Bearish Hammer The price opened at $140.89. After the open the price went up to the daily high of $147.18. At the high the price hit the top Bollinger band where it bounced off and reversed towards the downside. The bears then drove the price down to the daily low of $138.54 and shortly closed near the day's low at $138.70. The price closed below the open price signifying that the bears have won for the day. 2. The Bearish candlestick pattern is cutting through 3 key resistance levels. - (Resistance 1) The Bearish Candle is cutting through the key moving average at which point the BA price has rebounded from in the past, as per the circles areas in the chart with arrows pointing to them. This MA served as a resistance several times in the past and it is where the wick of the bearish hammer candle is now. - (Resistance 2) The Bearish Candle is cutting through the horizontal resistance shown by the blue dashed line. - (Resistance 3) The Bearish Candle is cutting through the top Bollinger band, which is a resistance point and indicated the the price is overbought. 3. The Stochastic are showing an overbought condition, and in addition the black stochastic line just went below the red stochastic line, indicating a short term bearish price action is possible/likely. I intend to enter the short trade and have 2 target profits in mind, marked by TP 1 (@ approx $131) and TP 2 (@ approx $131) in green lines on the chart. This will depend on the risk:reward ratio and aggressiveness of the bearish price action. It is worthy to note that BA made a high high on this last bullish wave, however in order to confirm the short term trend change, we would need to get a high low next (hopefully at TP 2 price level point, which is also resting on the lower Bollinger band). This is just my analysis and created for entertainment purposes. This is not and should not be taken as investment advice. I am not recommending this as a trade to anyone. Please do your own research and make your own decisions.
NYSE:BAShort
by BojanCerberus
SOL PERSONAL ANALYSIS IN THE SHORT TERM (UPDATED)The total evaluation for the SOL asset is bearish. Please be reminded that the price action displayed is quite similar to the previous updates in my profile ideas, but with considerable amount of differences involved. All fundamentals behind the market structure shown below are explained in the BTC and ETH chart. Thank you. Here are the analyses for the decisions, structure and trend below: ------------------ Pattern Analysis The asset itself has been developing a higher-high rejection from a very obvious point of past support now-turned resistance 40-42$ level and a breakdown to the 31-33$ is very likely to be expected. A right shoulder is also possible to show a re-test of that high just to confirm the failure to sustain any bullish bias sending the price to the original support down to 25-27$. There is a slight resemblance of a descending triangle, but the most likely pattern to associate the current market structure with is the Head and Shoulders Pattern. The HnS is normally a bearish pattern that is further amplified with negative fundamentals and low volume. An invalidation point of such pattern is when the current downturn towards 31-33$ has served as support for another leg up potentially breaking 40-42$, however it has to be supported with proper volume and fundamentals or else it would just be deemed as a manipulation wick for market makers to grab liquidity from stop losses and overleveraged shorts. ------------------ Wave Analysis The price flow of the structure projected is NOT RANDOM but is mimicked similarly to past previous references of such market structure behavior especially after a significant downturn. When the HnS is confirmed, the support around 25-27$ would most likely NOT be broken down very easily and just like our re-tests above, the support will now be continuously re-tested multiple times until a further breakdown is established. The reasoning for such higher edge of a breakdown is the negative fundamentals in smart money markets and as well as other crypto related issues (exchanges withholding funds, etc.) When we meet the support again, we will have a very tight consolidation from 25$ to 33$ until we break down. The 200 Day MA will possibly intertwine with the shorter moving averages at its tightest range and this is a potential manipulation ground for market makers to squeeze in either direction. A personal tip is to wait for confirmation on the breakdown or breakup before re-entering positions even IF the MAs fully crossed together. ------------------ Trade Analysis The initial short trade is shown to have a potential of up to 1:3 Risk Reward Ratio with the stop loss being the highest point of the HnS pattern which is exactly 43$. There will be 2 open short positions which 1 will be used to take profit as early as dropping to the 31-33$ region and another position that will be held until it drops to 25-27$. If in any case that the 31-33$ level has acted as a consistent demand level, you will not close your 2nd short position until it hits the original price you shorted from at break-even (no loss except for fees). You will re-evaluate your options then before entering the same short position again with the same target being 25-27$. The second set of short positions is shown to have a 1:2 Risk Reward Ratio with 43$ being the stop loss area and the first take profit level will be around the 25-27$ region with the latter being around 15-20$. The reason behind ignoring the take profit level at 31-33$ level is that will already have served as resistance. As I mentioned before, a consolidation pattern will happen at the bottom of the range before a further breakdown. It is carefully advised to not revenge trade at any cost nor do you overleverage beyond what you think you cannot afford to lose, the key to leverage is to prepare yourself mentally and emotionally on what you think you can tolerate to lose WITH RESPECT to your profit and loss calculations, liquidations, time tolerance and fundamentals. If you liked the chart above and the analyses provided here, do not forget to like, follow and share this idea to your friends! -Wamses
Short
by Wamses
EUR/USD SELL(SHORT) - FURTHER DECLINESEUR/USD is a recommended STRONG SELL — Rally Overlays: - Trend line (mid level) — 1.05680 (equivalent to 78.6% fib level) - Trend line (upper level) — 1.06803 - 1.0729 (between 38.25% and 23.6% fibonacci levels) - Price will break downtrend reaching those levels but still be a lower high in comparison to 2x previous high - Fibonacci Level 61.8% — 1.06147 - Fibonacci Level 50% — 1.06475 - Price will break trend reaching this level but still be a lower high in comparison to 2x previous high - MA30 level — 1.05868 - MA60 level — 1.06274 Sub-indicators: - Stoch RSI strength in downside momentum, deep in oversold territory, moving averages cross above and slightly sloping upward confirming the accumulation for a rally in this downtrend - CMF — shows major strength in participants participating in the distribution phase of this currency pair. Well below the CMF mid point level.
Short
by charrison4300
EURAUD Short trade ideaEURO looking weak across the board with multiple crosses having the identical move, we currently seeing a pull back from the long term daily downtrend. Around the area of 1.53 price has magnetized to this level a few times before, we have seen a major break through this level from been a nice support to now been rejected as a resistance area. Price also lines up with a nice 61% fib retracement so ill be taking short trades if price rejects this area once again.
Short
by jamison_fx
Bitcoin is thinking of falling more ??Hello dear friends ------------------------- Bitcoin is thinking of falling more ?? As shown in the chart, based on my analysis, this is likely to happen and the next floor will form around 22,000. *********************************************************************************************************** I hope you enjoy this analysis and find it useful. ******Appropriate entry points for supports and resistances according to the chart******* If you like this idea, Please Follow me and do not forget that your likes and comments are very important Thanks dear friends. Be generous and rich.
Short
by EhsanMalekII
BTC - Current momentum in favour of the bears#Btc is currently consolidating at @38,800usd but looks primed to fall to an established 30k support zone as indicated on the chart, seeing that it has fallen out of a full year’s ascending channel and has been rejected twice on it’s attempt to make a re entry back into that channel. There’s been no major news for btc that’s strong enough to drive a strong momentum upwards and there is extreme fear in the market as of today, hereby shifting the momentum in favour of the bears. Unless some unforeseen events occur as soon as possible to bring back confidence for the bulls, expect the bears to create a strong descent in price as the 29-33k support is currently looking like an enticing prey, so take note my loves. I wish y’all a profitable trading! This is NOT investment advice. Trade with caution.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by thefitprogrammer
1
Bitcoin, free fall to 37 k?Hello dear friends Bitcoin, free fall to 37 k? According to my analysis, this is a strong possibility. If that happens, Bitcoin may test lower targets, but there is still no reliable data for what is likely in the distant future. I hope you enjoy this analysis and find it useful. ******Appropriate entry points for supports and resistances according to the chart******* If you like this idea, Please Follow me and do not forget that your likes and comments are very important Thanks dear friends. Be generous and rich.
Short
by EhsanMalekII
12
Shooting Star on USDCAD weekly 8 Feb - 5 Mar 2022Alright, apparently USD is losing grounds against CAD. Breaking 1.2689, which it shall probably will, open way to 1.2600 and 1.2500. Huge shooting star (inverted hammer) on weekly timeframe, with marketing stabilizing itself from the sudden spike on oil last week. Chances are, we might actually see Loonie Dollar struggling between 1.2600 and 1.2700 for the upcoming week. Keep in mind the entire picture and levels on the chart, avoid long positions, happy trading and Best of luck.
Short
by Uzi-Trades-Forex