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SPY - Fib Levels and Gap FillsThe 0.618 Fib Level on recent price spike will fill top gaps down to $304. The 0.618 Fib Level from February 2009 until Present (10 Years+) coincides with past resistance/future support levels from August 2016. The lower 0.618 Fib Level would have SPY at $214 roughly. Next week we should find out if we have a small correction. It may take into January to see if we significantly lower. I am watching the breakdown of the current price pattern in the white ascending wedge. Once price breaks from here, I am watching to see if the pink channel fails. Below pink channel, there is a big drop down to the blue 10 year line support. News: While 2Yr/10Yr is not inverted, it is headed back towards zero. It took from August 1, 2029 to August 14, 2019 to go negative. We are at the same level now. Two weeks is not much. www.cnbc.com On CNBC Sri Kumar says the reason why unemployment is so low is because everyone needs two jobs because no one job will pay enough. 8mins into video. www.youtube.com Fed Repo (Repurchase) thru 12/12 is preventing natural market dynamics by funding the problem through "Not QE" New York Fed Reserve below shows Repo Operations through 12/12/2019 are about $35 Billion DAILY www.newyorkfed.org Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MoneyPatterns
4
SPX / SPY - 30Min Chart - End Of Month HesitationSPX / SPY - has been ready to correct for over a week. Fed Reserve assistance has keep this afloat longer than predicted. When this happens, the downturn is normally more severe since what is currently keeping us afloat is unnatural. Blue line - Daily ascending wedge - bearish pattern Yellow lines - 1HR ascending wedge - bearish pattern Green lines - Price broke down from Yellow Wedge, but trading in consolidation pattern. Given current price position in the patterns, RSI, and other indicators, we are overstretched in every aspect. Given the end of month and overstretched chart, I feel we will see a turn down by next week. If we only see a small pullback during December, a larger pullback in January or February should occur. Either we get a pullback in December, or people with Fed money printing assistance are lulled into keeping money in market until next year to avoid capital gains. SPY is so overextended at this point, I cannot objectively see any path higher. If we do not see a turn down by end of next week, I will be looking to add another Put farther out or reposition the current Put. Bearish News for SPX / SPY Nov. 28 - China Is Walking a Tightrope Managing Financial Risks: Barclays - "multiple bank defaults and red flags at China banks" - www.youtube.com Nov. 27 - China lashes out after Trump signs bills supporting Hong Kong protesters - www.marketwatch.com Charts below show Daily Charts with other wedge patterns in better perspective (posted earlier). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
SPX / SPY - Running on FumesSPX / SPY pink channel is at exhaustion. We either breakout of the blue triangle next week, or start our downward retracement. If we breakout of the triangle, all short positions should be exited. Based on the chart, I am staying in this position until next week sometime or 50% loss on this option hedge. Both were acceptable losses for the payout. This is why small position size is key until trend breaks. Reasons for my bearish outlook: Price - Barely broke out of blue ascending wedge. Stopped at SPX 3149.4. This is computer buying, not people. Too precise. Moving Averages -Short term averages are hugging price. One slip will break these easily. Retest of 128SMA or 200SMA would qualified to go higher. Volume - No volume at this price. Volume slowly decreasing. RSI - Forming a double top currently. Last two times this happened went down afterward. In hindsight, timing second RSI failure would have been better entry. Trend - We are at top of bullish trend and time in bullish trend is exhausted, lacking momentum. Next step is down. Sources - Video Below - Aug 2019, Real Vision Finance - 43mins55secs until 45mins38. "just like China in 2015 where the algos run the price up and then they sell it off. We just haven't seen the selloff yet" www.youtube.com Stocks are climbing even though growth slowing. finance.yahoo.com Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
8
SPX / SPY - UpdateSPX / SPY -multiple indicators suggest overbought and correction is qualified. However, with Federal Reserve putting liquidity without notice or disclosure to the public has lengthened the cycle. While this was unpredictable, this kind of action is unsustainable. After getting contradictions from some members, I objectively redrew the blue wedge. After looking at the outcome the lines suggest that we are still: - at the resistance level line (white or blue line) - at topped out RSI - at all time highs in price - and close to the end of either of the wedge patterns you choose (white or blue). When looking at the RSI trend, I noticed there is a double-top pattern (like a fakeout) right before price actually drops. Same trend is occurring now. We should see another top on RSI and then a downturn by end of week or sooner. I am still actively in this position and will remain in this position -as I have a small 1 put position to gauge entry while having a position, adding as downturn occurs -do not have a 50% loss on a $4.00 put. -the risk reward for this trade is still over 1:8. So my $400 has $3k potential for SPY at $290 which is within range. -my positions are for December 20 or further strikes, so I have until December 1st or so to pullout, profit, or reposition I place my orders close to what I see is the best entry point based on more than 3 chart indicators. If I am right, I profit quickly. If I am wrong, I take a small loss on a small position and either pullout for re-entry with small position or move on. In my opinion this current market trend is not sustainable and is overbought. I am waiting Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
7
VIXY - Up Gaps to Fill & Pattern End Suggest Upcoming TurmoilNote - When dealing with VIXY and other VIX derivatives, keep in mind these are "volatility" plays. This means using risk management, stop losses, and price alerts IS A MUST. VIXY and VIX related derivatives look to have some excellent short-term and long-term potential. This also confirms for me the SPY downturn coming. In the past, VIXY has closed all gaps with the exception of 2 recent price gaps and 4 other gaps going back to June 2016. As the gaps are not too far back in time, the price is irrelevant to whether the gaps can be filled in my opinion. If we are close enough, meaning a few years (maybe even a decade) things can flip and gaps get filled. Short Term Repeating banana pattern is ending in days. By 12/1 we should see some kind of issue or spike in VIXY. Two recent gaps up are easy to fill, up to $20. We should hit the pink top resistance, and go back down (allowing for entry to short, but puts, or call credit spread possibly). Long Term Pink main wedge is coming to an end around April 2020. Bond yield curve inversion happened August 2019. Around 8 months. Coincidence? We have EPIC gaps to fill above. I could be wrong, but this could also fulfill 10X potential. Stock is $14 with gaps to fill up to $200. At this level, this is extremely cheap insurance if market goes down. If I were to buy the stock, I would set stop loss limits or be willing to dollar-cost-average into the stock from here, and willing to hold for 1 year or more. If I were to use options, I would play the reversal points of bottom (now) and top ( in a few weeks or less). Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
14
SPY - 4Day View Confirms Bearish Weekly Continuation IncomingSPY 4Day view is beneficial since this acts like "half a week". I find this allows to see weekly trends before they occur. Price trend on 4Day has broken white uptrend channel. Last several times there is no retracement back up after breaking the channel. The pink channel support line is the same level as the 200SMA(red line). This occurs on Daily thru Weekly views. For this reason, I think we retest the pink support line around SPY $300 and hit the 200SMA. When we hit the pink line/200SMA, we will watch other indicators for continuation of breakdown or reversal. In 4Days or less we should be able to see the continuation on the Weekly chart - confirming bearish downtrend continues. Looking at last reversal, the pink channel acts as the "first stop" - correction. Going further down into the main blue wedge, hitting the support is the reversal point back up. Looking forward, we see the main blue SPY ascending wedge is coming to an end during Q4 2020. Same time blue wedge ends - presidential election. Coincidence? I think SPY walks the plank Q4 2020 or earlier. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MoneyPatterns
7
AAPL - Weekly View Confirms DowntrendAAPL on Weekly view confirms downtrend is just starting. We have hit the blue log resistance line (from Outter Space AAPL chart) and rejected. We saw this coming, so this is good. Based on current price trends I am currently in December Puts, looking at the April 2020 puts later. Good- We have broken white trend line and are at the top of the rejection. We have time until next stop. Next stop is pink line. We see if pink line holds. Based on previous trend, we see that when price hits top blue resistance it rejects pink support as well. Price continues rejection down until hitting blue log support line (possibly a little lower like last time as shown). Bad- We have to wait for the big correction. No biggie. It's coming. I feel the gaps outside the blue log support in the $123 area WILL get filled. Just not yet. The break outside the major log blue lines will indicate an overall LARGE market correction. AAPL is a major component of SPY and several other ETF's like XLK (where 50% is MSFT and AAPL of the whole ETF). When AAPL and few other major cap stocks fall, this will be the signal to fill lower gaps. I understand people love AAPL. The math does not support the price evaluation at this level. I am still long term believer in what AAPL offers, although I do not own their products. AAPL Outter Space View - showing major log support Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by MoneyPatterns
2
SPY - $290 by Jan. 1, 2020SPY bullish trend has ended on Daily view. On Weekly view, we are about to turn bearish indicating continuation of bearish trend. We are following previous fractal well, but this is not exact. We have several upcoming events: -Fed rate meeting - 12/11 - expected no change but rate increase is rising on chart www.cmegroup.com -Britain Elections - 12/12 - committee elected for Brexit. May have effect, may not. -Tariffs - 12/15 - Go into effect or get strung out again. I believe Trump will have no choice but to invoke tariffs on 12/15 if no China deal is reached. China is holding off with elections, impeachment fiasco, and stalling. Trump will need to save face as China tests his reserve if no deal is reached. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MoneyPatterns
15
DJIA - Weekly View - Matter of time - Part 2 of 2Daily view shows DJIA still ready for correction to continue downtrend. RSI, Fisher Transform, and Filter Dots all confirm price action just began downtrend. We will either go to First Stop resistance, or continue to main wedge resistance (slightly below). After this we need to watch for further breakdown possibility, or uptrend to 30,000. I feel that DJIA 30,000 is a psychological and algo-computer barrier where things will sell. This chart on the daily view supports that SPY should continue downtrend. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
TVC:DJIShort
by MoneyPatterns
4
VIXY - BULLISH - Making Turn TodayWatching SPY and VIXY recently and the inverse relationship between them. VIXY is at all time lows, RSI bottomed out. SPY is at all time highs, RSI topped out. Perfect time to do a Bullish Put Credit Spread on VIXY - collect the premium. $340 risk, $2500 reward. Then buy SPY put 30 days out. $485 risk, unlimited payout (but realistically $775-$1500) We should see VIXY and the VIX related derivatives bullish through December. The charts are overly suppressed for long periods of time. If price is like a beach ball held under water, the longer its held down and deeper....the stronger the rebound towards the surface. I will update this chart for as long as I am in the position. What is a vertical credit spread? It's what insurance companies do - collect a premium, and if sh*t doesn't happen they keep it. If it does, they pay you with your own money. www.youtube.com Previous Charts Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
2
SPY - Downtrend Started - Part 1 of 2Daily chart shows RSI turned down crossing trendline. Fisher Transform flipped bearish. Filter Dots confirm bearish downtrend has stared. In my opinion, this correction should last at least a week up to one month (Christmas). Possibly greater correction if determined in December. I will update a 30Min Chart for Part 2 of 2. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
7
MSFT - Almost Ready to Short/Puts - Watch Close!I am overall long MSFT, but nothing goes up forever. MSFT is becoming overbought on the Daily, as much of the market. All red boxes are gaps to fill. Price may stop at $134 first support (filling top 2 gaps). Watch to exit or price to continue to drop for Final Exit. The bottom gap may be filled quickly, as the price increase was quick. Quick gap up equals quick gap down often. RSI and Fisher are almost maxed out. This should be ready for Put entry, or shorting, by Thanksgiving. I will update as we get closer and I enter position. For those who cannot afford the GOOGL short/put, this MSFT offers the same payout. 10 MSFT Puts equal 1 GOOGL Put. This makes it more affordable and easier to Dollar Cost Average into the position if desired. MSFT and AAPL make up over 50% of the cap of XLK (Spider Technology ETF). MSFT and AAPL are also major components of SPY. If MSFT and AAPL both have a selloff at same time during December, this will confirm SPY selloff and market being overbought. While MSFT has actual revenue and cash flow, AAPL has not increased revenue since 2015 (except through share buybacks not actual growth). This means shareholders are paying more for AAPL, with same value as 2015. Overbought and correction is certain. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by MoneyPatterns
SPX - 30Min View - Still Time To Enter Downtrend30Min view shows falling wedge pattern (which is normally bullish). This indicates price could either break down at 3095 (tip of falling wedge), OR price could rebound at 3095 to resistance at 3130. A bounce to 3130 would be another entry point to short or buy a Put in my opinion. All Daily indicators on SPY are still showing bearish reversal incoming. RSI breaking trendline today down from over 74 yesterday, to 67 this morning (but still high). Filter Dots flipping to bearish. MACD and Fisher Transform are maxed out and flipping to bearish today (through next 2 days most likely). I feel that in the next 2 days (by Friday) we will get a clear turn down. By next Friday 11/29 or following Monday, it will be end of month options (and last Friday of month). Risks to Downside: Holidays, end of month after Thanksgiving being a Friday, China maybe no deal, Hong Kong protests and US Senate backing protesters not China, QE, corporate debt, government debt, etc. Potential to Upside: Only euphoria. Nothing is based on earnings, cash flow, price to book, or fundamentals. November 20, 2019 What Markets Looked Like Just Ahead of Last Two Stock Downturns - finance.yahoo.com "Flip to today and the S&P 500 Index is the most overbought since January 2018" I will be updating daily on this chart until I close my position. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
VIXY - Get In or Get Left OutVIXY and VIX derivatives are ready to spike. RSI, MACD, Fisher Transform, and Filter Dots all show reversal coming in next 5 business days. There are 4 gaps to fill, indicating a possible 44% positive correction to around $20 for VIXY. The reversal period is short here. I believe it may last until Christmas. Going to green curved line (Gaussian Channel midline) would be normal given the chart history. November 26th or sooner, I feel we will exit the current pattern up. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
CBOE:VIXYLong
by MoneyPatterns
SPY - Higher It Goes, Harder It FallsSPY - RSI at open is over 75. If we get to RSI 86, this will be same as December 2018 selloff of 20%. MACD shows exhaustion and bullish trend ending. Fisher Transform shows red dash line 3.79 level unable to be broken multiple times. Filter dots show long bullish trend cannot continue higher and close red/green lines mean downturn can happen quick. Maximum top is $320, but I doubt we go over $315. No momentum left. Charts are so overbought at this point a pullback is imminent. 3 Gaps to Fill down on Daily chart in last 30 days. This would be minimum correction down to $292. Farther down there are gaps down to $99 (although we may not get this low ever). The $99 gap is from 2016 which makes it still in play to be filled possibly. Upcoming Events: Fed Rate Meeting - Nothing gonna happen here. www.cmegroup.com Tariff's - Dec. 15 may go into effect. If this happens, or no China deal, market will turn down. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MoneyPatterns
QQQ - Daily View - Can DJIA, SPY, and QQQ all be ready to fail?Posted in conjunction with my other chart "QQQ - Outter Space -Can DJIA, SPY, and QQQ all be ready to fail?" Daily view shows pattern is at short term failure. Longer term pattern failure, of ascending wedge, looks to come around May 2020. Need to watch this after next correction to see if pattern failure occurs. I feel we will rebound into next year with a major correction (or recession) before year end 2020. There should be an entry for short position, writing calls, or buying puts at end of this month. End of November is when I am seeing multiple different charts, different patterns, all failing patterns same date. Coincidence...don't think so. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY. Short SPY and AAPL.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by MoneyPatterns
SPY / SPX - Weekly View - Showing Channel SupportPink channel shows multiple points of contact. Channel is exhausted. Blue wedge shows long term pattern, ascending wedge, which is also exhausted. We are RSI overbought, price overbought, and unknown economic and world issues going into holidays. We should see a 7% correction or more here in my opinion. Although the top of the pink channel appears to be hanging off into nowhere on the Daily chart, it has acted as support and resistance since 2010. I apologize if I cannot fit everything in the chart at one time. I will try posting multiple views if something is not shown. Thank you to a member who alerted me that this view was not supported in the last chart. I appreciate this. This is an update and response to my chart from Nov 15, 2019 - "SPY / SPX - Short Entry Almost Ready" Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY Short SPY and AAPL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MoneyPatterns
8
SPY / SPX - Short Entry Almost ReadyWe are setup to fail on SPY. Overbought RSI, consecutive ATH's...but we have more room to run. $319 seems to be ultimate top before we are in the RSI 90+ zone. We can look to enter positions for Puts or shorts with 30 day time horizon once RSI breaks trend. Once RSI breaks trend, price can lag so account for possible time when purchasing options. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY and short AAPL.
AMEX:SPYShort
by MoneyPatterns
10
SPY / SPX - Breakdown From Outter SpaceDo you see the repeating pattern??? What I see - So this is the Outter Space view where we see this massive wedge building since 2007. By August 2021 we are either going to go off the roadmap or there will be an epic meltdown. My guess is that $13 Trillion in sovereign debt and QE will eventually be the karma for the meltdown. Let me know what you think or what you see. Fear and Greed Index money.cnn.com Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
9
SPY / SPX - Nov 15 Deadline - BearishBearish because - On Nov. 15th we either break a 12 year resistance line with 6 points of contact or go to even higher all time highs. If that is not the definition of euphoria, I don't know what is. RSI Overbought. Wycoff Trend Overbought. I have closed my Put position to limit loses and re-enter because this dumpster fire is keeps going up. Any significant break of pink channel is excellent for downside returns or re-entry of Puts. I feel this artificial liquidity from FED combined with Trump China tweet and media manipulation is adding risk which cannot be calculated. Trade carefully here friends. Thank you for liking, commenting, throwing up a chart, following, or viewing. I am not a financial advisor. My comments and reviews are based on what I do with my personal accounts. Disclosure - I am long MARA, GBTC, BTCUSD, GDX, VIXY and short SPY.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by MoneyPatterns
4