BTC Short Chart... History repeating itself? This is for educational review. This is not financial advice.
Wanted to show that a short squeeze can move the price up impulsively on the flip, but doesn't indicate a bull market. More likely just the big boys taking retail heroes money who don't have enough margin to cover shorts. Everyone was eyeing 7500 as a stop loss but the real stop loss is at nearly 9K before we reach meaningful levels. Got to have deep pockets to play in the range we're in now, unlike 10-20K.
M
Shortsqueeze
Short Squeeze for the Treasury bearsTypically I have seen that when everyone is on one side of the trade its quite easy for the market to make fools of the participants.
The speculative short position on US treasuries, specifically the 10 year, is massive (and for good reason).
While I remain a longer bear view on these treasuries I think we might end up seeing a short squeeze before we see 3% yields.
The 10 year is showing some signs this could accelerate and hurt alot of bears who need to cover their positions.
BTCUSD: Short Squeeze In Progress. 6941 Test Possible?BTCUSD update: 7240 low which was the lower boundary of the minor 8171 to 7239 support zone was established and followed by a very bullish pin bar. The current candle has taken out the high of this pin bar which is a bullish sign. What needs to happen now is the follow through. Without it, price can still retest 7239 or even 6941 before the reversal process is complete.
Like I wrote in my previous report, do not react, instead plan ahead. The current location is a very attractive area for buyers. In fact, if you were watching the order books on the some of the major exchanges while price was flirting with the low 7Ks, there was a huge discrepancy between the pending buy orders and sell orders. There were was something like 30K to buy and 8K to sell at one point while short interest was declining. This was visible as price was going lower which clearly signaled that the smart shorts were getting out while the weak longs were being scared out. No new shorts were entering the market. This was a clear sign that a short squeeze was imminent.
Buying in such a situation is tough, especially if you are managing a larger position already. Do not fear though, because if this is the beginning of the next broader bullish move, there is still plenty of opportunity to participate at an attractive reward to risk ratio.
The key to bullish continuation is how the next few candles unfold. The fact that 8300 was taken out quickly is a sign of strength, and that could have been used as an aggressive buy trigger. The problem is, price is hesitating when it should be pushing higher. This hesitation may lead to a retest of the 7401 reversal zone boundary or even 6941 with is the next reversal zone established by the 7239 low. It is also possible that the market presents a shallow higher low. All three of these scenarios offer buying opportunities IF new reversal candles or inside bars appear at these levels.
In summary, the bigger picture carries the most weight. It also allows you to plan ahead when you are able to project relevant support and resistance levels. These locations give you a reference point to anticipate, and prepare for reversal patterns and triggers, not to blindly jump in. Just like the market highs are very risky for longs, these market lows are very risky for shorts and attractive for longs, especially for position and swing trade longs since the potential move off of this area can lead to the mid 9Ks with relative ease. The question you must ask of yourself is how much can you risk? Choose an amount, and then split it up into smaller units. This allows you to distribute your risk across levels of aggressiveness. You can allocate part of your target size toward aggressive entries (break outs), while allocating other portions to more conservative entries (pin bars off of reversal zones). Remember this is not a casino, manage risk and the rewards will take care of themselves.
Comments and questions welcome.
AQMS- 1 of my 2018 Swing Trade Candidates for 500%+ Potential$AQMS - has been beaten down from roughly the 22.50 high its at 2.08 currently. I feel it can have the same potential as last years swing candidates $IPI which was in the low 1s and $Galt at the .89 cent level. So i have added it to my 2018 swings with 500% potential list.
The share structure is roughly a 28 mil OS with around 24 mil float with such a small structure and between 12-15% short interest could see a swing back up to over 10++ in 2018.
The company is well funded and holds patent to "AquaRefining, which recycles lead batteries without producing additional waste that ends up in landfills. Recycled batteries are broken apart by machines that separate the plastic from the lead. The plastic is recycled, while an electrochemical process rids the lead of impurities."
It has a deal with Johnson Controls $JCI that i think can really start to take hold in 2018 in terms of revenue growth...
Took my first feeler today
ETHBTC: Breaking down...The terms Bitfinex published for the upcoming B2X fork, may have started a chain reaction that is putting pressure in all coins that are paired against $BTC, as people borrowing $BTC, will also owe $B2X tokens after the Nov. Fork. Pair this with a lack of liquidity in $BTC from people withdrawing to receive the Bitcoin gold airdrop, and you have an explosive catalyst for a short squeeze in everything against $BTC. If I'm right, $ETHBTC -and everything */BTC- will melt down, and $BTCUSD could reach heights between 6300 and 9700 quickly, leading to an spectacular blow off top by Nov. 18th, as people return to exchanges to drop thier B2X and chaos breaks loose, with not 1, but 3 BTC forks in existence competing for the top dog spot.
Miners will be severely divided by then, and I think the outcome could have disastrous consequences in the short and intermediate term, but, after the bear market ends, we might resume the uptrends in these instruments. Best of luck if shorting here, keep a tight stop and let it cruise. At least, swap alts for $BTC and wait for $BTC top if long crypto.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTC Bullish ScenarioI think we are at the beginning of a new uptrend cycle in BTC . The weekly uptrend is still in place, and the daily downtrend (using bitstamp data) has expired. I will be looking for a move above ~$4190 to confirm, and am waiting to add larger margin positions (holding mainly spot right now).
Chart is based on methods learned from Tim West and Ivan Labrie.
"Bottom" Play on PETSA negative article smacked PETS down over 40% in just a few weeks. Since then it has leveled off and seems to be close to squeezing some shorts out. Volume has NOT confirmed a move, but price action has hinted at one, with the highest close (and first over 8 ema) since the final meltdown on 8/23. This isn't my most confident play, but I love the gains from these bounces (See TEVA today...which I was playing weekly calls on the last 3 weeks, and failed to get one last friday for this week...smh).
Entry over 37.44 with big volume
Tight stop at 36.50
(always tight stops on these plays, OR, I usually just buy calls with the amount I'm willing to risk and let it go to zero)
Potential price target over $41
Short squeeze at playTOO MUCH BAD NEWS IN THE PRICE?
All it took was a positive comment from the Pacific Crest analyst yesterday, about the upcoming earnings and the prospects for Karma, to take the stock 10% up in 3x average volume. Short interest has been so high on GPRO and the stock has been so neglected in the recent rally that any marginally positive presumption (not even news) seems to want to take the stock higher. This is encouraging ahead of earnings, and points to the amount of negative expectations built into the stock right now.
EXCITING TECHNICAL BREAKOUT
Yesterday gave us a proper, solid breakout:
- Gap up at the open;
- Close above the open;
- Heavy trading volume;
- Back in the previous consolidation channel.
EARNINGS COMING UP: WHAT TO DO?
Current holders should continue to hold, in case the short squeeze extends into earnings. Volatility has subsided somewhat but remains elevated, which means non-owners should build a synthetic position to take advantage of this situation while being exposed to further upside.
CREDIT OPTIONS STRATEGY
SELL GPRO 17FEB17 $9 PUT = +$0.39 (ind.)
BUY GPRO 17FEB17 $11 PUT = -$0.28 (ind.)
TOTAL = $0.11/SHARE
RISK AND REWARD?
Get paid to wait for a continuation of the breakout.
Main risk: Company disappoints, stock crashes, investor gets assigned the shares at $9.
Best case: Stock trades above $11, investor makes money on both options or buys the shares at $11.
STRP evening star reversal?STRP is a low float stock (5.82m shares) with a high "short float" of 46.93%. The higher it goes, the more shorts get squeezed and cover their short position, pushing price action even higher. Stock is up 30% / week and formed 2/3 leg of evening star reversal. Will consider long position about 36.75 or short position below 34.40. Will shorts get squeezed today or will this roll over? First glance at the fundamentals and you wonder why this is at $35 when it has revenue more inline with a penny stock than NYSE.
GSM 30%+ for month, 70% short float, unprofitable qtr, dividendsGSM is an interesting stock, with almost 70% short float and up 30% for the month. It's had several unprofitable quarters, but yet still pays 8 cent dividends. It certainly got a lift because of the president-elect Trumps plans to build/repair the nations infrastructure, bridges, etc.
$ARRY Will The Short Squeeze Continue on Array Biopharma?With Array Biopharma earnings this week, the chance of another short squeeze increases, but so does your risk. Golden Cross on Daily, positive divergence on MACD, riding the upper Bollinger Band as of 8/2. My $ARRY upside target is $5.47 NASDAQ:ARRY
$WTW posible long that could make a nice short squeezeThis stock looks pretty nice for a long swing if we break 16.20, the stock have more than 34% of short interest, if we break that level we should move fast becaouse a lot of people put their stop into tha area
$ATRS recent insider purchase and high short interest$ATRS not my typical play but recent insiders and fairly high short interest
Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
3/15/2016 10,444,826 866,786 12.050063
EURUSD: Long term forecast and multitimeframe analysisIn this chart I illustrate the different facets of the trend in the Euro.
It's clear to me that we're about to witness a large short squeeze rally, as evidenced by the following technical landmarks:
Rgmov is moving up in the weekly and daily, not validating the recent decline (which also happened during very low liquidity sessions)
There's a potential time at mode uptrend in the weekly and daily, which can start to work in the coming week. Targets for it match a monthly range expansion validation target roughly, and it sits right below the low volume resistance (which also matches a 0.618 retracement of the whole decline since the 2014 high where this leg started to the lowest low)
Majority of retail bears, but commercials are net long
Weekly moving averages of the lows and highs tell a vivid story, with lows not moving under the low MA and the highs about to be taken out, this usually precedes a breakout.
In the big picture, fundamentals for Europe and the United States show a divergent monetary policy, with the potential for a very bearish outcome for Europe, with the expectation of further easing as the situation is worsened by separatist movements, war, overall poor economic indicators, and a series of rate hikes for the dollar. I can determine if the rally was a short squeeze after the fact as well, so I'll be paying close attention to unleash the perfect short when the time is right.
The bond market is showing an increase of yields is expected in the near term, with bearish price charts for BUXL and US T-Bonds, which adds more fuel to the short squeeze rally thesis as well.
As for the stock market, going by Tim West's long term forecast of sideways and not clearly bullish acitivity, it's only natural to see short term bearish dollar as well.
To add more to my thesis here, there is a quarterly range expansion bar target that wasn't reached in time, which implicates a potential rally to start off this zone. I don't think we will cross the low volume resistance, and I expect to see bearish continuation once the daily uptrend time and price targets are met.
I will give signals to take advantage of this very interesting pair to my private group, if interested in learning more about it contact me via private message.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Time at Mode FX
GENE great buying opportunityStart of a long term, high profit trend. Has continued short interest in the face of reg-sho forced buybacks (buy-ins), brokers are forcing people to cover at a loss and now have the stock on not able to borrow lists. At historically low levels with support and high bullish volume. Reward to risk favors the longs, a wise portfolio investment.
Short term squeezeLooks like the market is about to get squeezed down below the breakout zone. It will probably stop anywhere from $200 to $210 next. We have a large downward channel acting as the top of a descending triangle that will take us to the low $200s. We had a failed H&S that took us to $245 where we were stopped by the lower end of the breakout zone before the big parabolic move.
This is a pretty safe trade with a decent R/R and high probability, although it is not that big. Given that the trend is still down, it is the safest bet right now.
If you love my ideas, then I love you. BTC donations:
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40% Short squeeze setup on toy maker JAKK with hottest toy of yr40% short interest 30+ days to cover, and several buy signals shaping up. Bullish MACD Cross, Stochastics, and breaking out of a steep downtrend. New 3 month closing highs after retaking both the 50 day and 200 day moving averages this week. Weekly PAR SAR just printed bullish as well. Would jump in or add on the break of $7.50. On a fundamental basis they completed a restructuring and trade at a steep discount to peers Mattel and Hasbro. Takeover candidate as well.
GoPro Goes Berserk For detailed commentary and analysis, see our blog post published 10/3/14: www.syncubate.com
In this post, we'll dissect the stock's surreal run up from the low $50s in the beginning of September to its near-term high of $96.45 on 9/30/14.
Our chart as published on our blog represents two time frames of interest to us from a price action standpoint. The first is the daily time frame for GPRO going back to mid-July. The second is the 30 minute time frame from 9/23 - 10/2.
This post articulates two reasons for the run up in price, and offers a great example of supply versus demand in effect. For more analyses and commentary on the stock market, check out our blog: www.syncubate.com