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Shortsqueeze

MARKET THOUGHTS 10/14/22Grab a cup of coffee, wake up and read up lol ** (Not a Financial Advice, just sharing my own opinion and the process I do in the morning before I make a decision to trade.) ** As you guys are all aware the SPY went nuts yesterday, anything is possible in the market these days lol. Once the shorts got squeezed above 354 and FOMO kicked in it ran like it stole something :rofl: . Now as you get ready for todays play here are things you should consider based on the charts and technical analysis: - SPY, yesterday, just showed a possible sign of short term reversal from the divergence we've been talking about in the stream the whole week. - The bounce was larger than expected and larger than usual, when a move like this happens one direction, there's a possible consolidation day the next day or pullback, unless volume continues and breaks above key levels continuing to squeeze the shorts and FOMO continues as well. - If you are planning to go Gungho on going long, zoom out first and see the trendline on the daily and the pre-market action on SPY and where its at currently (See Chart Posted). - Break of that trendline upwards can mean retest of the next resistance and probably even retest the next trendline up, but SPY has done its weekly range as of yesterdays candle, so slight chance it will continue breaking to the upside and do another big run. If anything, possible pump then pullback. - The VIX on the weekly hit that trendline we talked about on the streams this week too causing the downward direction which usually does the opposite of the market, hence the run up yesterday. ** Scenario 1 ** VIX bounces above 9ema on the daily and stays above, market pullback. ** Scenario 2 ** VIX breaks below the 9ema on the daily, it will have about 1-2points max move today. Which can mean a pump in the market and will hit exhaustion, so pump and dump. (See VIX Chart Posted). SPY VIX
TVC:VIX
by rjhay22
Another BTC Short Squeeze coming? Can we go higher today?CME:BTC1! INDEX:BTCUSD BYBIT:BTCUSD Yesterday I took a long on Bitcoin as I saw a short squeeze playing out. This morning I'm seeing almost an identical situation unfolding. Massive market shorts opening at a weekly support and at the lows of the candles. If we have big demands for longs turning up, we will see over leveraged shorts closing up and a possible move up above current resistances. I take you through the scenarios that could play out and what to look out for. I'm still in my long trade from yesterday, with stops in profit. BTC will also move with the traditional markets. If the ES pumps, so will bitcoin, so be sure to keep an eye on that asset. Keep good risk management in your trades! Not Financial Advice. DYOR. Papertrade before trading with real money. Hope you have a profitable trading day! Shawn
BYBIT:BTCUSD.P
by zartraderguy
4
GME moment of truth -- will the Algo break the trendline??GME algo is in full control, as you can see from the two upward blue channels that follow with a sharp drop. The good news is that the upward orange trendline has held on 3 separate occasions now -- Feb '21, May '22, and Sep '22. This signifies that while the algo remains mostly in control, the lows aren't as low as they could be because DRS diamond hands are holding the line. The moment of truth will come within the next couple weeks, as the algo goes for the "mega drop", similar to what we saw in January when we went from $40 to $20. If we're lucky, we will mimic the movement of April '20 before the sneeze, where the price temporarily dropped below the trendline and back into it, igniting the squeeze in just a few months. So I'd expect a quick drop below the channel to the $15-20 range and back into it shortly thereafter. If this happens, MOASS is most definitely imminent within the next 3 months. However, if it doesn't bounce back into the channel, MOASS would be delayed and a new trend would most likely take shape over the next 6 months or so before we can make any real judgement. At that point, we'd be totally dependent on DRS numbers sucking out liquidity before we saw anything really reminiscent of MOASS.
NYSE:GMELong
by bouncytrades
3
XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!KOG Report: In last week’s KOG Report, we said we could see the price getting ready for another breakout of the range and that we would be sticking with the bearish view on Gold, however, expecting a short bull run at some point. We said to look for the levels of 1730-35 and above that 1745-50 as bullish targets before seeing a reaction in price. We said this region will be tapped into before another decline in price or give a target from the lows. We said 1714 would act as support and if the price remained above this level, we would see the push up into the 1730-35 target and potentially above. As you can see, we began the week with the support level holding and the push up straight into the 1730-35 level which then gave the reaction in price and gave the opportunity to exit, then reverse the trade for the short way down into our KOG Daily and weekly targets. A phenomenal week for us here at KOG tracking the market level to level, point to point as illustrated in the reports continuously. Hope traders did well to keep up with the daily analysis as well! So, what can we expect in the week ahead? Well, we’ll start by saying we’re going to remain with the plans we’ve been following for most of this year. We’re at a point of the market now where there is likely to be some form of relief rally which will give bulls something to look forward to. We want to position ourselves in Camelot to capitalise on this rally so want to try and catch it from the right levels. We can see more downside ahead and have lower targets so it’s a matter of patience now. For that reason, we’re switching from our long level to level strategy to a short level to level strategy with the view to take longs for the larger captures, as we’ve been doing with the short trades most of this year. The fractal shows we could see some more bearish pressure towards the last week of the month and with FOMC this week we’re likely to see some aggressive movement from Tuesday onwards. We have the immediate resistance levels above of 1685 and 1695, these price points would represent opportunities to go long in to and then look for a reaction in price. The lower support levels on the 4H chart are indicating a support level slightly below the 1650 level which is also where one of our two lower targets are sitting. As you can see from the 4H chart, we’re in a huge liquidity pool and can expect price to potentially range here and accumulate more orders. The problem with this region is that it can be used to propel the price in either direction, so please try to trade with a strict risk model in place this week. In summary: If price doesn’t tap the lows again, we’ll look higher to potentially short this again to go lower targeting below 1650, if price hits the lows first then we’ll look for a reaction in the pool, or slightly below before then taking the long trade. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
17
Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue?Primary Chart 1 : AMC Price on the Daily Chart with Significant Fibonacci Levels Noted Will AMC's Short Squeeze Continue? Another short squeeze has successfully launched a few lucky traders into the stratosphere. Maybe more than a few if some take profits timely. AMC has risen about +183% above its low on May 12, 2022. In the past several days since July 27, 2022, it has risen about 99.06%. All signs point to another short squeeze similar to the prior ones. Even volume patterns look the same—albeit much smaller than prior volume patterns. The short squeeze could continue as it did in June 2021. Short squeezes don't necessarily stop because everyone things price has gone too high. This article does not take a position on whether AMC is destined to revisit this year's lows or make new all-time lows. And predicting the behavior of numerous market participants—the retail buyers looking for a squeeze and the short sellers looking for a flush—and analyzing how such behavior is affected by other macro issues such as interest rates and liquidity in light of tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy would be a futile endeavor. As a result, one may look to technical analysis to try to make a prediction about the probabilities. Note on Primary Chart 1 how the price patterns at the prior short squeeze on March 29, 2022, and today's short squeeze, look nearly identical. Compare the two yellow ellipses on Primary Chart 1 above. Both peak candlesticks have an extremely tall bullish candle preceding them. And both sport a long upper shadow (or wick). Some technicians call this a Pinocchio candle or bar. This type of price bar shows up when the bar breaks temporarily above a level of resistance and then falls back below it. It also can appear when the bar breaks temporarily below a key support level, and then reclaims that level by the close of the bar. Some basics of Pinocchio bars follow below for those unfamiliar with the term: Martin Pring, a technical expert, writes that these bars "give a false sense of what is really going on." Pinocchio bars tend to create bull or bear traps depending on the direction the long upper shadow points. Upside breakouts, such as here with AMC, lock in unwary longs with a loss by the close of the bar. Shorts similarly get stopped when intraday bars pierce well below support and then whipsaw back above that support by the close. In Martin Pring's books, he further explains that the "false break" that develops is " indicative of exhaustion since the price cannot hold above the strong resistance reflected by the line ." In short, like the character Pinocchio's nose that grows when he lies, the price move beyond the resistance / support ends up being a false move, and the bigger the false move, the bigger the lie. In summary, the Pinocchio bar with a long upper shadow, especially when viewed along side other similar bars over the past year, imply that price has likely exhausted to the upside for the time being. Further support for exhaustion is evident. Note how the Fibonacci projection levels have provided strong support and resistance repeatedly since the all-time high in June 2021. Primary Chart 1 labels those levels and points out their operation as strong resistance on multiple occasions. The last two rally attempts occurred in December 2021 and March 2022. Both these rally attempts failed at the .50 Fibonacci projection (green line shown on Primary Chart 1). For the current rally, the price bars with the long upper shadow pierces the next Fibonacci level of importance in the sequence: the .618 level which lies just below the .50 level . This also supports at least a temporary pullback or consolidation. Additional evidence supports exhaustion. Note below how AMC's price has now risen to +5 ATR on the daily and its candle has a long upper shadow. Moves to +3 ATR are rarely sustainable for long much less +5ATR. In the chart below, note the location of price relative to the +3 ATR Keltner Channel. The +3 ATR KC is the outermost band on the upper edge of the KC bands. Supplementary Chart 2.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels Supplementary Chart 2.2: AMC's price relative to the +5 ATR band on the daily chart using Keltner Channels Finally, note the declining volume on each successive short squeeze. This suggests that the buying pressure has waned as short squeezes have continued following each major decline. Supplementary Chart 3.1: AMC's price well above +3 ATR band on the Daily Chart using Keltner Channels But the persistence of the buyers squeezing the shorts should be recognized as something that is a new force in markets since what occurred in 2021. Price could indeed push higher if enough collective buying force continues in stock and options markets sufficient to overwhelm all supply. Price can do a lot of things no one expects. But based on technical analysis alone, however, price likely falls lower from here. This author makes no argument that new lows will be reached. It will be important to watch the pullback to answer that question. A reasonable price target would seem to be 16.50 near the .618 retracement of the rally from the May 12, 2022, low to the August 8, 2022 high.
Editors' picks
NYSE:AMC
by SquishTrade
38
$ETHEREUM - Do or Die !!Hello my Fellow TraderZ, Yesterday we had a big event in the world of #CRYPTO. Say the Queen of #Crypto - $ETHEREUM was shifted from the Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. This is itself a big news for $ETH as in future this will make $ETH more scarce. Many were eyeing on the value Post Merge and it was expected that price would see a sharp rise or atleast lead to the previous local High, but nothing happened rather price decided to visit South. Now price is near the Confluence Zone(Yellow Circle) and I m expecting a bounce here. Funding Rate is decreasing which means more and more late SHORTS are opened which could be #SQUEEZED
by TRADER-GOKU
1
BCH - Trading Ranges To OvercomeWe obviously fell a lot with BCH, but still price did not broke any multi year supports, set back in 2018. With such fall those yearly price gabs were closed and i am very positive that the bottom is in for BCH and other crypto. There is gonna be plenty of resistances back to the top. Those resistances are trading ranges or price areas where larger trading volumes have occurred. It is where i expect that price can pause out and start ranging for a while. First we need to get out of the first (orange) price range and visit a second (blue) range. I expect that once we really start going we should be there really fast just because there are a ton of shorts in the market right now and shortsqueeze can happen easily. As for the 3rd price range ...I still think that we will go to the third trading range nd even .618 fib. retracement level (green arrow), but before that, price will probably have to work out lower between 2nd and 1st trading range before continuation upwards. I can be really wrong. No one knows really. it is a speculation based on historical price behavioral. I am not a financial advisor so non of this should be taken as a financial advise. Be well.
Long
by CR35
GME, KOSS, AMC, Silver, Pot Stocks, and now KMPH is a loaded canI'm very bullish on this and long in the position. The Reddit WSB are starting to get behind it and I'm seeing more buying on the tape in large volume than selling. Shorts are in a bad place. Could see 20.00, 60.00, 90.00, or 120.00 conservatively due to very small float compared to the floats of GME or AMC. Full disclosure I'm am long this stock and have been since I found the 71% short on a company with no debt and an FDA approved ADHD drug.
KLong
by jpactor
1
SPY in a downtrend? Where's Top? THE ANSWERS!Chart: SPY 2 week TF. The answers are both in the chart and below. SPOILER: If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid. Interesting: A downtrend is defined as LOWER lows (LL) and LOWER highs (LH). Uptrend? as HL's and HH's. ** A single HIGHER high (HH) invalidates a downtrend trend in that TF. Trend is relative to TF and can be valid in one TF but invalid in another. A HH is established when the previous HH is superseded by a new candle's _____________ (fill in the blank). Answer: It's the new candles **close** that takes out a previous high, **not** its own high. Once that condition has been met the new High is promoted to the status of HH. Important: SPY's 1 week down trend was invalidated when the HH of $393.16 established on the 28th of June, 2022 was taken out by the close of $395.09 on Friday, July 18th, 2022. Chart: 2 week downtrend is still valid and the current 2W candle closes in 5 days. (8/12/22) The trend remains valid if that close is below the previous HH of $417.44 established on June 2nd 2022. Very important: *** The high of (this) week is not relevant to the 2W downtrend. Only the candle Close on Friday (8/12/22). Implication (not opinion): If SPY rallies to $420, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $500, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $600, the downtrend is still valid. If SPY rallies to $800, the downtrend is still valid. ... *as long as* price falls back to $417.44 by EOW. The point: ... idk. Ask me in 2 weeks. Where is "top"?: It's the price where the last bear goes long (aka covers). In other words when there is not a single buyer left. ** Starting with Homma Munehisa, (1755) The Fountain of Gold—The Three Monkey Record of Money. to the more contemporary: Al Brooks, (2009) "Trading Price Action Trends" .. and everyone in between.
AMEX:SPY
by gb50k
1
History always repeats!Back when I posted the 'accumulation on AMC' I though the fractal between January 2021 and June 2021 was just slanted. This would mean a clockwise rotation of the fractal. basically a skewed version of the fractal. Downward moves would be more extreme and sharp. Upwards move would look more like a consolidation. Consolidation would look like a slight down trend, following the angle at which the fractal is rotated. I was early when I thought August 3rd 2022 was may 26th 2021 on the fractal. It seems to me that today August 5th 2022 was May 13th 2021 on the fractal.
NYSE:AMCLong
by GuiltBeCrowned
8