WEEK OF 1/4 -- EARNINGS TO PLAY VIA OPTIONS: MON, BBBY, WBAAlthough I traditionally see earnings season as beginning with the first play in the alphabet (AA), there are some that occur before AA that I've frequently played. Next week, it's MON, BBBY, and WBA. MON announces earnings on 1/6 before market open (look to put on that play before Tuesday NY close); WBA, 1/7 before market open (put on Wednesday before market close); BBBY after market close on 1/7 (Thursday).
MON's implied volatility rank is currently 63, has an implied volatility of 31, and a short strangle appears to offer nearly 1.00 in credit ($100 per contract) for a 93/104 short strangle, Jan 15th expiry (currently .97 at the mid price).
BBBY (rank 49/implied 45) needs to have its implied pop a bit to make it 1.00+ attractive; I generally only like to play these when the implied volatility rank is high (70+) and it's implied is kind of right in the middle of its 52-week range right now.
WBA (rank 83/implied 41): the 78.5/91.5 Jan 15th short strangle is currently going for 1.05 at the mid price.
I looked at other earnings announcement plays for next week (CUDA, FINL, KBH, HELE, for example), but none of them look particularly attractive for an options strategy because liquidity is poor on the options end of things and/or the underlying doesn't offer weeklies.
Shortstrangle
NKE EARNINGS PLAYNKE announces earnings on 12/22 (Tuesday) after market close, so look to put on your play before NY close.
Here's the standard short strangle setup:
Dec 31st 118/141 short strangle
POP%: 75%
Max Profit: 1.25 credit ($125)/contract
BPE: ~$1572
BE's: 116.75/142.25
Note: I ran an iron condor setup, but it looks like it will generate less than a .50 credit/contract ... . I would also note that it may be less than ideally liquid, so you may want to shoot for a higher fill price if the opportunity presents itself.
GME -- EARNINGS AFTERGLOW PLAYHaving announced earnings about two weeks ago, IVR/IV in GME remains high (70/55).
The standard setup -- the short strangle:
Jan 22 27.5/38.5 short strangle
POP%: 71%
Max Profit: $113/contract
BPE: ~$333/contract
Break Evens: 26.37/39.63
Look to take it off at 50% max profit and move on ... .
WYNN -- NONEARNINGS PREMIUM SELLING PLAYSome stuff hits my high IVR/high IV radar over and over again. WYNN is one of those, with an IVR currently at 100 and an IV at 81.
Some caution is in order, though, since ordinarily I like going 45 days out and WYNN's earnings are due to be announced on 2/2, so I want any setup to expire somewhat before that so I don't get caught in a volatility expansion (that being said, how much more can it expand?).
Here's the setup (which I'll look to take off somewhat in advance of expiry), since it's getting in a bit tight to earnings:
Jan 22nd 45/77 short strangle
POP%: 79% (ridiculous, quite frankly for a play that is nearly worth 2.00 in credit)
Max Profit: $196/contract
BPE: ~$615
BE's: 43.04/78.96
OPTIONS TIP: SHORT STRANGLE DEFENSEHere's a great article on "tested" short strangle defense: www.dough.com
This is exactly what I'm doing with my broken SCTY short strangle (see post below).
EARNINGS PLAYS THIS COMING WEEK -- FDX, ORCLOnly two earnings plays stick out to me this coming week -- FDX and ORCL, both of which announce earnings on 12/16 (Wednesday) after market close, so look to put on setups before NY close on Wednesday.
Currently, FDX's 52 week IVR is at 54 (IV 34), which isn't stellar, but it's at 92 for the past six months. Moreover, there is pretty good credit to be had whether you go short strangle or iron condor, so I imagine I'll play that one way or another if the IV sticks in there.
ORCL (IVR 75/IV 35) isn't looking all that hot, frankly, because I can't get 1.00 in credit with either a short strangle or iron condor (a Dec 24 34.5/39.5 short strangle will only get you a .61 credit at the mid price right now, which isn't anything to go crazy over; a same expiry iron condor just isn't worth it). Nevertheless, we could see a greater volatility pop toward earnings that makes it a little bit more worthwhile such that I'll play just because there isn't that much else worthwhile to do ... .
(Of course, there is that all FOMC thing next week, too).
EWZ -- NON EARNINGS PREMIUM SELLING PLAYOkay, so there isn't a 1.00 worth of credit in this setup, but I'm going to put it on anyways due to its high IVR/high IV (79/52).
EWZ Jan 29 18.5/26 short strangle
POP%: 70%
Max Profit: $82/contract
BPE: ~$235
BE's: 17.68/26.82
HYG -- PREMIUM SELLING PLAYYou know what they say, one's man's junk is another man's treasure ... . With an IVR of 100 and an IV of 18, this may be as good as junk is going to get for premium selling (don't quote me on that; further sell-off could be on the horizon ... ).
HYG Jan 29 74/84 short strangle
POP%: 75%
Max Profit: $109/contract
BPE: ~ (Undefined/After Hours)
BE's: 72.91/85.09
HES -- POST EARNINGS HIGH VOL PLAYWith a dwindling earnings calendar and some buying power to put to good use, I'm looking to go where the IVR/IV takes me. With an IVR of 74 and fairly decent IV of 43, HES popped up toward the top of the Dough "Notable Stocks" grid (sorted by IVR).
Here's my set up:
Dec 24 51/68 Short Strangle
POP%: 75%
Max Profit: $150/contract
BPE: ~$597/contract
BE's: 49.50/69.50
Notes: The underlying isn't the most liquid thing, so you may not get a fill at this particular price and might have to monkey around with it a bit. Me, I'm just going to enter the order and if it fills, it fills. If it doesn't, I'll look at it again next week to still if there's still premium in the play. As always, I'll look to take the trade off at 50% max profit so I can redeploy the capital elsewhere.
YUM 10/6 EARNINGS PLAYYUM announces earnings on 10/6 after market close, so if you're going to play this via an options setup, look at getting a fill for whatever you put on prior to the 10/6 New York close.
Ordinarily, I trade these using a short strangle or iron condor, with the short call/put legs at or around the 1 standard deviation line for the chosen expiry, which will either be the Friday immediately after the earnings announcement or the Friday thereafter if the earnings announcement is too late in the week to manage the trade post-announcement if necessary.
SHORT STRANGLE:
A short strangle is an undefined risk strategy that consists of selling a put and a call with the assumption that price will remain between the strikes of the put and call for the duration of the contract.
Oct 16th Expiry 74.5 Short Put/89 Short Call Short Strangle
74% Probability of Profit
Maximum Profit: $121/contract
Buying Power Effect: Undefined
Break-Evens: 73.29/90.21
IRON CONDOR:
An iron condor is a defined risk strategy that consists of a long put, a short put, a short call, and long call with the assumption that price will remain between the strikes of the short put and short call for the duration of the contract.
Oct 16th Expiry 72 Long Put/74.5 Short Put/89 Short Call/91.5 Long Call Iron Condor
70% Probability of Profit
Maximum Profit: $57/contract
Buying Power Effect: $193/contract
Break-Evens: 73.93/89.57
Look to take both of these trades off at 50% max profit ... . Should price breach one side or the other of your setup, look to roll that side out to a later option expiry for credit and, if possible, for an improvement of your strike prices.
