Gap Down, Retrace, RolloverIm using this algo strategy to commit to a bars pattern from history in the Nasdaq. It seems that theres a high chance for continued pullback in the broader index led by tech and risk equities as bear volume picks up. these are the levels im watching for short opportunities.
Shortstrategy
TSLA short term sell signalTSLA Financial Analysis
Income Statement
- Income, Earnings and profit margin for Tesla all increased over past 5 years
- Tesla reported higher than forecast earnings for company for the past 4 quarters
Balance Sheet
- Increasing Assets and liabilities with a shrinking Debt-Asset Ratio
Cash Flow ( Value of the Company is ALWAYS a reflection of FREE CASH FLOW )
- 2018-2019 Tesla free cash flow growth risen by 538.85%.
- 2019-2021 Telsa free cash flow growth is still increasing but by smaller percentages. Since 2019
Tesla free cash flow growth decreased -455.04%
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TSLA Price Chart Analysis
Tesla stock has been decreasing in value since November 4, 2021 losing more than 50% of yearly gains.
Largest decrease in value is near Earning announcements. ( Though Tesla reported higher than forecast earnings—Tesla earnings growth has been declining )
*Tesla forecast to report lower earnings and revenue compared to previous quarter results for the first time in 5 most
recent earning announcements.*
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Sentiment: Short Term Sell - Long Term Buy/Hold
Potential Short in FDX Still trying to find my way through TA and trend following, I chose to scrutinize a company that I picked to be in my portfolio at my internship. Back in October, I looked at FDX for a long position to fill out a portfolio of blue chip dividend paying stocks for a model client portfolio. As luck would have it, the stock then rose from $170 to $200. I was happy with the result of the trend, however, as it approached $200, I felt uncomfortable keeping it in the portfolio. I thought it was overreached.
This is where I fight the deep value investing principles of "buy and hold" with the trend following rules of riding profits and taking profits when the trend has run its course. I am still trying to find a middle ground, I am getting closer.
Looking at the daily charts, FDX is hanging on to support at the 186.39 level. As of yesterday it crossed its 50 MA in a bearish manner, but I am looking for a confirmation and continuation of the bearish sentiment, and I like the probabilities.
Fundamentally, I wanted to get rid of FDX due to increased debt accumulation, decreased cash, and negative free cash flows. With a PE Ratio of 26, its more expensive than 73% of its competitors. Its trading 3.26 times book value, putting it more expensive than almost 90% of its competitors. Cash to debt ratio has decreased each year over the last four years, going from 1.64 in 2013, to 0.26 in May 2016. Enterprise Value for FDX has increased over the last four years from 28,572 to 54,136 in 2016, that's a high price tag for 26 times earnings.
For these reasons, I give more weight to the bearish probability outcome than I do the bullish one. Could the fact that I've found more shorting opportunities in larger cap "blue chip" stocks mean something for the overall market? I'm not sure. Would love some feedback.
If FDX breaks current support, look to take profits around the 200 MA. Not the greatest Risk Reward Ratio: 1.49, but nevertheless, interesting to see what happens.