GBP/USD Long Term (HTF) Setup and Trade Plan + short term playsTime Frame:
- Weekly & Daily for analysis
- 4 Hour for execution
Trend: Currently in a LTF uptrend (pullback) within a HTF downtrend
- Weekly = Down
- Daily = Up
My hypothesis for this pair (orange price prediction) is for this daily pullback to continue in order to sweep further liquidity from the larger (green) trend that had been in control since mid-2021 with 4 strong resistance touches. This more recent blue trend line that defended price and brought us out of the green trend is still in control with it’s third support touch.
I expect price to mitigate former supply zones in the range of 1.35 to 1.375 and using that liquidity to make a large move downward toward a strong unmitigated demand zone at 1.14 and ultimately to a prior large liquidity grab at 1.03.
This is a longer term trade however there will be shorter term opportunities within that I plan to take such as:
Short term downside: I will highlight this trade opportunity in a different post – there is a strong head and shoulders pattern forming on the daily chart and this could give us the necessary liquidity to break out of this blue trend line – at least toward the most recent unmitigated demand zone at 1.244. (Red price prediction)
Short term upside: If the H&S does not follow through and is invalidated by a sharp move upward, I will take a long position toward the most recent Higher High expecting either a bounce off strong resistance or bullish momentum toward our ultimate HTF supply zone
Thank everyone who views this and takes any benefit from it. I am on a journey to becoming the best 4Xtrader I can become and love to bring my fellow traders along for the ride.
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Happy Trading!
FourXTrader
Shorttermanalysis
(W) Chrt Anlyss/Current Opportunity & Longterm View with 4$rule(W) Chrt Anlyss/Current Opportunity & Longterm View with 4$rule for New Comer's.
Aug 3rd week Price Rejection at 1808 from weekly low of 1681, where Bullish run was from 1681 to 1808 = 127$
Opportunity arise after bullish rejection with Bearish Trend For :-
1st Tp at 1729
2nd Tp at 1711
3rd Tp at 1690
With Hedge point at 1752
( Strong Major Support is maintained from 20April2020 to till date 19th Aug2022 .. Tp can continue but, its not recommended )
if Major support is broken then SELL entry will be taken from 1658 and Tp will be 1635, 1602 with ext 1589.
And if the price bounce back from Major Support area.. then BUY side will be strong from 1721 to 1762 resistance if these resistances
break it will be the first sign of Bullish continuation for 1812,1821 ext 1855 and Key level figures till 2063 which is expected.
Take note that My 1lot Hedge is at 1801 and it release will be mentioned ( As per my mood ) on the TV Gold forum Chat 😃😃😃
Till then stay tuned. Good Luck
These Analysis is done Based on Trends, Wave, Technical Fundamental & Beyond Technical analysis.
Is it time for Value Stocks? Lumen Technologies case studyIn a market where most stock valuations have skyrocketed to Mars, Lumen Technologies is one of the bright exceptions,
being perhaps one of the safest investments available, for the investor to sleep soundly at night. LUMN has great fundamentals
and is a much underestimated VALUE STOCK, ready to change the declining trend of many years to rising.
In an article he wrote a year ago, Jeff Storey, CEO of Lumen Technologies (rebranded CenturyLink), stated: ‘During the last century,
telephone companies pioneered early networks by standing up poles and stringing phone wires across the nation. Today, the new
pioneers are tech companies like CenturyLink who are standing up networks and stretching fiber across the globe—and in the process,
making exciting technologies like 5G possible’.
Lumen Technologies is an international facilities-based communications company engaged primarily in providing a broad array
of integrated services to business and residential customers in over 60 countries. Lumen’s enterprise technology platform enables
companies to capitalize on emerging applications and power the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR).
Lumen Technologies states that ‘Lumen is the fastest, most secure platform for next-gen business applications and data, integrating global
network infrastructure, cloud connectivity, edge computing, connected security, voice, collaboration and enterprise-class services into a seamless experience’.
Lumen is ranked No. 29 on Washington Technology's 2020 Top 100 list of federal government IT contractors.
From a fundamental analysis point of view, LUMN with capitalization 12.54B (11.43 $/share), P/E 9.57, P/S 0.58, P/B 0.91, EV/EBITDA 5.27,
Div. Yield 8.85%, Intrinsic Value 16 $, Buffetts Limit 18$, can be considered as a cheap stock. The only negative element is Debt to equity ratio which is 2.41.
From a technical analysis point of view, LUMN’s monthly diagram shows that the stock is possibly in the process of trend changing. The three
preceding years, while the stock reaching its bottom the volume rose to historical levels, which means that shares changed hands from retail
to smart money. Also notice the break-up of the RSI declining trend line and the divergences that appeared.
Next follows LUMN’s daily diagram.
Notice that stock’s price is over 200d, 30d and 9d SMAs. Additionally, notice the consolidation and resistance zones and that the RSI is in high overbought zone,
so the correction of prices or a short period of consolidation is possible.
Next follows LUMN’s 30 minutes diagram.
Notice that stock’s price is over 200(30m), 30(30m) and 9(30m) SMAs. Also notice the up trending channel and that prices are in the middle of the channel and the
Bollinger Bands, while MACD and RSI are declining, indicating a possible pullback or more likely a consolidation in these levels, until reaching the channel’s lower trend line.
Conclusively, I think no investor should ignore LUMN, because it is very likely to be A SUCCESS TURN TREND STORY that may give big gains in 2021 (and next years) with MINIMUM INVESTMENT RISK.
Of course the stock is suitable not only for long term investors, but also for short and mid term traders as well.
Finally, I encourage you not to lean on my analysis but to make your own research for the company before investing in LUMN.
How deep are we going? I think deeper than many expect...I have now been thinking since the 12th that a retest of that Marabozu was needed before we could move higher. I did not expect to go as high, and I am highly suspicious of the neck-breaking pace of sentiment change in the space. Too many loudly bullish peeps out there for my liking, and this is an indicator as good as any other so I keep thinking this could turn into a lower low if the bears have it, and judging by the low volumes there are a lot of people waiting or hodling. I noticed today that the daily RSI has once more dropped below 60 which was a level we had failed to pierce since the 20th of Dec until this latest rise. This might signal a continuation of the downtrend.
The red area is the potential neckline of a H&S that would provide some symmetry and the outcome of that could result in either a retrace to the 0.5 fib of the recent leg up from the lows or a bounce back above $10k.
However, if we break down below that with force, we could continue to the pink box which would go some way to retracing that Marabuzo clearing the 0.236 fib and touching the long-term trendline in place since Jul 2017 on a linear scale. This would provide us with a stronger platform to punch through the $10k barrier. I am acutely aware of the parallels with the past and this scenario would provide an amazing launching pad to repea the 2013/14 pattern so we can head for higher highs before retracing all the way to the bottom trend line again.
The bearish case here is that we are retracing to the low trendline before we can reach ATHs again which is potentially $4,500.
Likely further downward correction at neckline...We're currently testing the 23.6% Fib support level, which if broken can cause the price to fall to the neckline. The second shoulder shouldn't top the first one. A further correction downward could face two possibilities, a rebound around the 2 stdev Bollinger band followed by a retracement once the 1 stdev Bol Band is hit, or straight to the lower trend line.