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EUR/USD Prediction on 25.08.2023 The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country is one of the primary indicators of its economic health. It reflects the total market value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period within a country's borders. When the GDP of a dominant economy within a currency zone, like Germany in the Eurozone, shows a bearish trend, it can have profound effects on the currency, in this case, the Euro (EUR). Dominance of the German Economy in the Eurozone: Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, contributing a significant portion of the zone's aggregate GDP. As a result, its economic performance often serves as a barometer for the entire Eurozone's health. A bearish GDP trend in Germany can, therefore, suggest a potential slowdown across the entire Euro area. Investor Confidence: A declining GDP often points to broader economic issues. This can include declining industrial production, reduced consumer spending, or challenges in the services sector, among other factors. As a consequence, investors might perceive the Eurozone as a riskier investment, leading to capital outflows and a reduced demand for the Euro, thus driving its value down. Monetary Policy Implications: The European Central Bank (ECB) closely monitors economic indicators like the GDP to shape its monetary policy. A bearish GDP trend in Germany might prompt the ECB to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate growth, such as cutting interest rates or implementing quantitative easing. These measures often lead to a depreciation of the currency as lower interest rates tend to reduce foreign capital inflows seeking higher returns. Trade Balance Implications: Germany is a significant exporter, and a bearish GDP might reflect challenges in its export sector, potentially due to global economic conditions or decreased competitiveness. If German exports decline, it could result in a deteriorating trade balance for the Eurozone, further placing downward pressure on the Euro. Psychological Factor: The financial markets are influenced not only by tangible factors but also by traders' and investors' perceptions. A slowdown in Germany, given its economic stature, can create a bearish sentiment around the Euro, leading market participants to short the currency or look for safer investment alternatives. Potential Ripple Effects: While Germany is the primary focus here, a downturn in its economy could impact its trading partners within the Eurozone. As trade and investment links are dense among Eurozone countries, a slowdown in one major economy can have spill-over effects, creating a feedback loop that amplifies the bearish sentiment.
Short
by mazayafx
British Pound Futures 6BV3Disclaimer-Doing this mobile, it really sucks to be honest but here we go. British Pound October 2023 - Short Why V instead of U, concerns about the open interest on the September contracts on the CME. Open interest shirks about one month out, don’t get left holding the bag. For option traders, this does not affect your trade, your preference should be 6BU3 not 6BV3, futures is different. In the last 15 years has a probability of success of 66%. Not the greatest however this 66% is “targets achieved” so as long as it is managed and not “set and forget” you should get some profit out of it. My first target for assessment is at 1.25$ or about there (mobile) that is a .02->.03 draw down and then the king killer target is at 1.21 which is over the last 15yr the high end for profit (.07$) which also lines up with support levels. However just because it lines up doesn’t mean sh*t. Setups could include a calendar spread, back end contract best option would be March imo, or you can hedge the risk on the USD (DX! U3 or V3 on ICE or something)on a long dated or tight (close stops)6BV3 contract. Option dawgs Best case you buy the put and are in it for a short time bc extrinsic value on the option contract will increase so I would not leave it open til the 29th unlike a futures contract. Selling premium here instead is safer however you won’t make as much $ as a bought put. I may wait on the credit side until it recovers in Dec. Whether you’re running the option naked or as a debit spread it should be managed regularly. I cannot post external sites/info however reach out to me and I can provide further documentation. Hope this is readable…… “Where are the kids?” -kewlkat
CME:6BV2023Short
by kewlkat
EURUSD - Short trade FX:EURUSD Based on swing trade idea, using Fibs on daily TF, I see an opportunity to short this pair using fibs level and price action, swing high and swing low on higher time frames. Also EMA 200-100-50-20 indicate a strong downtrend Current short move started from around 1.126 where EUR/USD finds the resistance level Last 3 highs and lows create an rising channel but overall the pair is bearish and if we move to Monthly TF can observe better the area were we are, testing the previous support that becomes resistance for current move.
Short
by Andrei_C
Covid 2023 - Profiting from CorruptionHello everyone Josh here again. I’m sure by now you’ve already heard mumblings of Covid’s imminent return. We are seeing everything from colleges to hospitals start to implement Covid policies. The news cycle is starting to warn of a dangerous flu season/Covid return. Governments around the world are now updating their Covid policies and sleepy Joe’s White House is still pushing for the mass vaccination and experimentation on of human guinea pigs around the world. With all this being said, it is my idea that we are about to go back into lockdown/full Covid policy mode. Although I wish this was not the case, I do intend to profit from it. Illustrated is the Moderna chart, I use this, as it was one of the first assets I made money off of during the last pandemic, in fact, you can still go back and see my old idea on my page about Moderna when I called it at around sub $60. However, this could’ve been any chart from Amazon and Netflix to hospital sectors, to e-commerce platforms like Shopify. Basically, anything that will go up during a full-scale, pandemic/lockdown. If my gut feeling is right, and we are going to go into a full-scale lock down, it might be one of the easiest plays of the century. During the last pandemic, we saw airlines, cruise lines, casinos and resorts and a myriad of other sectors collapse to unprecedented lows. I expect something similar to happen this time around, to varying degrees of severity. Many people made millions by shorting assets last pandemic, I think we are setting ourselves up for the perfect storm to profit. Look for stocks to long and short. Ignore the noise and make your money off of the lies of the global elite. Below is an AI rendered breakdown of this idea. Thank you so much for reading. Please follow and like my ideas :) Investment Thesis: Navigating Pandemic-Related Market Trends I. Introduction: The investment thesis centers around capitalizing on potential market shifts resulting from pandemic-related policies enacted by governments and corporations globally. II. Market Outlook: Anticipating the implementation of pandemic-related rules and regulations, which could include mask mandates, lockdowns, and travel restrictions. III. Asset Allocation Strategy: A. Long Positions: E-commerce Dominance: As witnessed during the previous pandemic, e-commerce platforms like Amazon thrived. This trend is likely to persist as people turn to online shopping for convenience and safety. Entertainment Streaming: Companies like Netflix benefited from increased demand for home entertainment. Expect this trend to continue, making streaming platforms potentially profitable investments. Pharmaceutical Giants: Pfizer and Moderna played pivotal roles in vaccine development during the Covid pandemic. Their expertise positions them well for potential future vaccine requirements or pharmaceutical innovations. Healthcare Stocks: Hospital and healthcare-related stocks may experience increased demand as health services remain crucial during pandemic periods. B. Short Positions: Travel and Hospitality Sectors: Historical data shows that airlines, cruise liners, resorts, and casinos experienced significant declines during the last pandemic due to travel restrictions and reduced consumer spending. IV. Risk Considerations: While historical patterns suggest certain sectors will benefit and others may decline during pandemics, unforeseen variables can impact market dynamics. Careful monitoring and adaptability are essential. V. Diversification and Hedging: To mitigate risks, consider diversifying your portfolio across industries and asset types. This approach helps balance potential losses from short positions with gains from long positions. VI. Exit Strategy: Regularly reassess the investment landscape, keeping an eye on shifts in policies, vaccination rates, and economic indicators. Be prepared to adjust your positions accordingly to optimize gains or minimize losses. VII. Conclusion: In light of potential pandemic-related policies, a strategic investment approach involves capitalizing on e-commerce, streaming, pharmaceutical, and healthcare sectors, while shorting travel and hospitality sectors. Prudent risk management, diversification, and a proactive exit strategy will be pivotal in navigating the ever-evolving market landscape. Please note that investment decisions involve inherent risks, and it's advisable to consult with a qualified financial advisor before executing any investment strategy.
NASDAQ:MRNA
by Helios_Capital_Investment
EUR/USD Prediction on 23.08.2023The recent downturn of the Euro (EUR) against other major currencies has attracted significant attention from financial markets, policymakers, and everyday citizens. This decline is not only of interest to those directly invested in the Euro but also has broader ramifications for the global economy. Let’s delve into some of the underlying causes for this trend and its potential consequences. 1. Causes for the Decline: Economic Disparities: The Eurozone consists of 19 member countries, each with its economic strengths and weaknesses. Disparities between economically strong countries like Germany and struggling nations can create tensions and affect the Euro's value. Debt Levels: High levels of national debt in countries like Greece, Italy, and Spain have often led to economic uncertainty within the Eurozone. Market fears over the sustainability of these debts can influence the Euro's value. Political Instability: Political events, such as elections or referendums, can create uncertainty about the future direction of a country’s fiscal policy, potentially affecting the Euro's strength. Monetary Policy: The European Central Bank (ECB) plays a pivotal role in determining the Euro's value. Decisions about interest rates, quantitative easing, or other monetary tools can influence investors' perceptions of the currency. External Factors: Events outside the Eurozone, such as trade wars, global recessions, or significant geopolitical events, can impact the Euro’s value. 2. Implications of the Euro's Decline: Exports: A weaker Euro can make European goods and services cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially boosting exports. This could benefit European manufacturers and service providers. Imports and Inflation: Conversely, a weak Euro makes imports more expensive, which can lead to inflation if businesses pass on increased costs to consumers. This can erode purchasing power and potentially slow consumer spending. Tourism: As the Euro depreciates, Europe might become a more attractive destination for tourists, potentially benefiting the travel and hospitality industries. Debt Payments: Countries with significant external debt may find their repayments more expensive if their debts are denominated in a currency other than the Euro. Investor Sentiment: Continued uncertainty and a weakening Euro might lead to reduced investor confidence in the Eurozone, potentially resulting in lower investment levels.
Short
by mazayafx
USD/CAD PREDICTION ON 17.08.2023At the moment, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is exhibiting a bearish trend. Several factors could be influencing this downturn, be it economic data from Canada, global oil prices, or international trade dynamics. It's vital for investors and traders to keep abreast of relevant news and economic indicators from Canada. Always combine insights with personal research and consider seeking advice from financial professionals before making investment decisions.
Short
by mazayafx
GOLD Short Opportunity with an alternate option to go longThe price of GOLD this August is controlled by the bears, as seen on the monthly chart. The weekly price is also controlled by the bears, supporting our short idea. As we are inside the parallel channel, we must be patient to short near the resistance of the channel which is also in confluence with the opening price for the week. If the short materializes, we can take profit near the bottom range of the channel. If price breaks out of the channel (as shown using the orange arrow), we can wait for a retest of the channel and go long but take profits quickly as bears are still in control of the month and we are still inside the downtrend channel.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by paolojuesna
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