DUOL looks to bounce from a fib retracement LONG.DUOL on the 30- minute chart shows a healthy pullback of about 5% from its ATH reached both
Feb 29th and a few days ago. so it is just under a double top. On March 19th, it rallied from
the pullback to put in the second ATH and then dropped 5%. The question here is whether,
CUOL can attract interest volume and so money inflow to allow a price rise (Wychoff''s therory
applied). The bottom wicking on the last two candles is significant and may suggest and
impending reversal. This was a great trade from the earnings. I will not mind at all if
it is setup and ready to go at Monday's morning bell. The predictive algo forecasts a
quick rise to 246 or about 7% upside. DUOL did run up hard before. Recently it may
have attracted some shorts who will sell quickly if a 6% jump occurs. Potentially,
a short squeeze could send DUOL higher than the forecast. Time will tell.
Shortvolume
SPY UVXY SHORT SALE VOLUME and PMIsShort sale Volume seen spiking on UVXY.
Data releases today from Chicago Fed showing Economic activity Index slowdown: actual 0 versus consesnus 0.24, prior 0.29; and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index miss: -17.2 versus consensus -5 and prior -12.9.
Dow Jones Industrial Average made yearly lows late last week and again today as it lingers at low 29K. Nasdaq and SPX lingering at their June/yearly lows.
***Please note: Projections shown with yellow dashed arrows are merely conceptual/quizzical, and not intended as an "idea" or a "call" of what's to come. Just observations, and considerations of possibilities.
Reading recent short volume activity in GMEFor some time, I've been developing a working theory around how to spot and take advantage of the "buy to close" activity of short side market players.
Shorting is inherently a difficult endeavor. Unlike long only players, shorts have additional variables to contend with: borrow fees, short squeeze risk, and the return max of +100% (if something goes to 0).
For the purpose of this analysis, we will limit our interest to using available data to identify a potential entry and exit of such a position ( prior to publication, 13K reporting, etc. )
Short Volume is available on a daily basis but Short Open Interest is only published bi-monthly with approximately a 14/15 day lag.
In the following chart we attempt to deduce a logic entry and exit point based on the abundance of short volume & price action during those time periods:
(every rally was sold during entry and every dip was used to cover on the exit)
Additional price action support for this perspective is the relative instability of both rallies and dips ( long wicks ) showing that the price action was purely transaction driven as the short actor attempted to skillfully enter and exit their large position while appearing as "noise".
Is a perfect storm brewing?I am looking at potential short positions on OIL related stocks as indicated by this example.
Observation
Phillips 66 has gone into a bearish mode with swing traders (around 30% of the market) losing on net longs positions with the wider market on average now being at break even.
Break-even price levels can mean either 1) important support areas, 2) break points where on-stop shorts can be positioned (without the risk of being affected by stop loss hunts)
Discussion
Several core issues to measure here:
1) OPEC - growing pump volumes'
2) USA dollar - and its purchasing power
3) US economy - is the US fiscal response still in-tact?
4) Covid-19 and economic recovery - new strains and 2nd / 3rd waves in countries - South Africa, USA etc.
We could have a situation where OPEC volumes being increased intersect with economic wobbles and new Covid impacts. So a perfect storm may be brewing!
Extra
Two oscillators are presented:
1 - Realised PnL for this stock - If I saw large losses being realised and a new cost basis being set by the wider market , I would be more inclined to think that the current set-up is a pivot point low and potential buying opportunity - currently this is NOT the case!
2 - Exempt short volume - measures the 'Urgency' of shorts- or hedgers. These points come in just before or at Pivot Point highs or after Pivot Point lows for cover. So I will be keeping an eye on this.
Good trading :)